Just seen a show where Fezzik said he would....

[PatsFan1283]

What amount of games is the wager for? Would it be 5 per week like the contest?

It's just the contest to a tee.

 

[Betallsports]

You said "I'm guessing he's not talking about the Contest itself, because the last 5 years the winner has hit Way over that"

That's why I asked why you think the winner hitting way over that the last 5 years has relevance. Because ya know....you said it.

Do you think it has relevance that people have hit over 58% the last 5 years? Of course he could lose, he thinks he's >50% vs anyone.

Not sure why you think I have a problem because I'm asking you a question based on something you said.

Yes I believe there is Relevance , so many hitting over 58%
I don't think the everyday "Joe" can hit over 58%, but looking at just the last 5 years of the contest, and seeing not just the Winner, but many hitting over the 58% mark
even people that Didn't even cash in the contest

 

[PatsFan1283]

Yes I believe there is Relevance , so many hitting over 58%
I don't think the everyday "Joe" can hit over 58%, but looking at just the last 5 years of the contest, and seeing not just the Winner, but many hitting over the 58% mark
even people that Didn't even cash in the contest

Has anyone hit over 58% the last 5 years combined?

It can be done but just because 15% of the field does it a year doesn't mean they have a sustainable edge to do so.

 

[Betallsports]

Another question is, is there anyone you would bet on to break the 58% threshold next year? I could see someone having as high as like a 40% chance to win the bet, but not too much higher.

I just think it's too many games to pick to have 60% be your EV.

I'm almost Sure there will be Multiple people to Hit Over 58% next season.

If I had to pick ONE, I'd take last years winner

 

[Enfuego]

Yes I believe there is Relevance , so many hitting over 58%
I don't think the everyday "Joe" can hit over 58%, but looking at just the last 5 years of the contest, and seeing not just the Winner, but many hitting over the 58% mark
even people that Didn't even cash in the contest

But they're using stale contest lines to hit those percentages. Is he talking those lines or current ones?

 

[Betallsports]

Has anyone hit over 58% the last 5 years combined?

You would have to go through those 5 years and match them up.
The Biggest problem would be that some people will Change their Contest name. like the CH ballers did after they won in 2014

 

[PatsFan1283]

I'm almost Sure there will be Multiple people to Hit Over 58% next season.

If I had to pick ONE, I'd take last years winner

No, I mean over the totality of the last 5 years is there anyone that you think is at 58%+?

edit: ok saw reply.

 

[Betallsports]

But they're using stale contest lines to hit those percentages. Is he talking those lines or current ones?

It says even with the Stale lines of the Supercontest

 

[Betallsports]

No, I mean over the totality of the last 5 years is there anyone that you think is at 58%+?

edit: ok saw reply.

you can't really tell because of the name changes

 

[PatsFan1283]

But they're using stale contest lines to hit those percentages. Is he talking those lines or current ones?

The stale lines increase their chances and probably take you on avg from around 50-51% to 52-53%. But they can't just get you to 58%.

Another problem with just picking stale lines is that if you take those picks and you get the 2-3% increase from them, that's the only value those picks will have in most cases. You can't suck out more value from them than just the stale lines. Unless it is both a stale line AND you think the play is very good, but for 30% of the NFL slate to fall under that criteria is a bit much.

The reason they're hitting 58%+ is because of survorship bias. Over a large field, some will underperform, some will overperform the mean. I think some people in the field have an edge on the field but I don't think those peoples picks over/under is 58%. Like I say in a previous post, if someones 58%+ on the field is their true winrate, that's a bad MF'er.

 

[seldomseen]

Should be easy money for Grannys Boy.

 

[Betallsports]

You could probably take a guy like Jarhead ( ex-RX poster ) who's been in the contest for years. He doesn't pretty good almost every year
Not sure what his % is over a 5 year time frame

But some of these guys change names, some don't want others to know who they are. because a lot of guys in vegas know each other

 

[Betallsports]

Should be easy money for Grannys Boy.

Yeah that was my pick

 

[Betallsports]

The stale lines increase their chances and probably take you on avg from around 50-51% to 52-53%. But they can't just get you to 58%.

Another problem with just picking stale lines is that if you take those picks and you get the 2-3% increase from them, that's the only value those picks will have in most cases. You can't suck out more value from them than just the stale lines. Unless it is both a stale line AND you think the play is very good, but for 30% of the NFL slate to fall under that criteria is a bit much.

The reason they're hitting 58%+ is because of survorship bias. Over a large field, some will underperform, some will overperform the mean. I think some people in the field have an edge on the field but I don't think those peoples picks over/under is 58%. Like I say in a previous post, if someones 58%+ on the field is their true winrate, that's a bad MF'er.

People have said the lines have gotten better over the past couple of years. But there was 256 Entries that hit 58% or better, Last year

 

[PatsFan1283]

Yeah that was my pick

Would you bet on him beating 58% this year?

How bout over the next 3 years? (This is hypothetical, so we don't need to pretend his retirement could be imminent like he's Gregg Popovich)

 

[Betallsports]

• 2013: DAVID FROHARDT: (67.9%) (55-26-4) 57 pts
• 2014: CH BALLERS: (76.2%) (64-20-1) 64.5 pts
• 2015: ROUNDING AGAIN: (72%) (59-23-3), 60.5 pts
• 2016: POPS2008: (65.9%) 54-28-3 55.5 pts
• 2017: GRANNYS BOY: (72.5%) (58-22-5) 60.5 pts

 

[Betallsports]

Would you bet on him beating 58% this year?

How bout over the next 3 years? (This is hypothetical, so we don't need to pretend his retirement could be imminent like he's Gregg Popovich)

Yes

the next 3 years ? meaning after this year ?

 

[PatsFan1283]

Yes

the next 3 years ? meaning after this year ?

Nah, just all 3 years taken together. So 255 picks over 3 years.

 

[Betallsports]

Nah, just all 3 years taken together. So 255 picks over 3 years.

Yes of course I would. For him to have an Overall % after 3 years, I think he will have a Winning % of 58% or better

 

[Betallsports]

Yes of course I would. For him to have an Overall % after 3 years, I think he will have a Winning % of 58% or better

of course this is a crap shoot, but since he already has 72.5% , he would need to go 51% each of the next two years