Just seen a show where Fezzik said he would....

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He's saying he'll bet against a person doing it. He isn't saying it is impossible.

What don't you understand about the fact he thinks someone has a sub 50% chance to do it, therefore he will bet they won't do it?
 

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Obviously he knows it can be done, multiple people do it every year. He's saying that's variance and nobody has a sustainable edge to do it consistently and thus he is a favorite to win the bet.

I really don't know how I could communicate it any better.
 
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He's been saying this for years ... as far back as 2010

in 2013 the wording was slightly different as he was talking about His winning % in the LVH Contest

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/service-plays/2541632-steve-fezzik.html

What about what he is saying don't you understand though?

He isn't saying it is IMPOSSIBLE, he is saying he wants to bet anyone who thinks they're a fav to go over 58% (or w/e the # is)

At 58%, I tend to agree w/ him just becaue 80/256 games is a ton to consistently find 60% value on. The selection is too small and I don't think there is quite that much value avail on 1/3rd of the games a week.

Put it this way, if someone was a fav to do it, that's a bad motherfucker IMO.
 
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What about what he is saying don't you understand though?

He isn't saying it is IMPOSSIBLE, he is saying he wants to bet anyone who thinks they're a fav to go over 58% (or w/e the # is)

At 58%, I tend to agree w/ him just becaue 80/256 games is a ton to consistently find 60% value on. The selection is too small and I don't think there is quite that much value avail on 1/3rd of the games a week.

Put it this way, if someone was a fav to do it, that's a bad motherfucker IMO.


What I'm trying to say is He is Full of it. I Believe Krackman wanted to take the Bet

and I also believe what BB is talking about is a Video from 2010-2013
 

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What I'm trying to say is He is Full of it. I Believe Krackman wanted to take the Bet

and I also believe what BB is talking about is a Video from 2010-2013

Even if you think he is full of it, you don't understand how your logic is wrong that just because people do it doesn't mean that they are a fav to do it?

That's survivorship bias.

I'm not sure how I could better explain it but I tend to agree w/ Fezz/Stinky that he would be a fav.
 

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Obviously he knows it can be done, multiple people do it every year. He's saying that's variance and nobody has a sustainable edge to do it consistently and thus he is a favorite to win the bet.

I really don't know how I could communicate it any better.

Can't believe you have to keep explaining this.
 
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Even if you think he is full of it, you don't understand how your logic is wrong that just because people do it doesn't mean that they are a fav to do it?

That's survivorship bias.

I'm not saying they would be a favorite to do it.

I still stand on that this was back in 2013 or earlier ... 153 entries went over 58% last year alone
75 the year before, 130 the year before that, 113 in 2014, and about 50 in 2013

I do understand what you are saying. It's like he walks into a sportsbook and says to the first guys he see's, I bet you, you can't hit 58% in the Contest
That person isn't going to be the favorite to hit 58%

I'm saying he was called out on this bet, and he didn't take the call, or something along those lines.
 
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Just seen a show where Fezzikaid he would....

Take a bet up to $100k that someone can't hit 58% in a NFL season using Hilton's line.

He said his phone has yet to ring. Lol.

Did anyone ever take him up on that? He said even money.
 

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I'm not saying they would be a favorite to do it.

I still stand on that this was back in 2013 or earlier ... 153 entries went over 58% last year alone
75 the year before, 130 the year before that, 113 in 2014, and about 50 in 2013

I do understand what you are saying. It's like he walks into a sportsbook and says to the first guys he see's, I bet you, you can't hit 58% in the Contest
That person isn't going to be the favorite to hit 58%

I'm saying he was called out on this bet, and he didn't take the call, or something along those lines.

Then why did you say people have done it the last 5 years, what relevance do you think that has?
 
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Then why did you say people have done it the last 5 years, what relevance do you think that has?

what relevance ??

if one of the 500+ had taken him on the wager, he would have lost

I'm sure that Steve knows or knew people in the contest that hit over 58%

You're the one that said he's not saying it's Impossible ... Not sure what your problem is now.. Yes the Avg person wouldn't win the wager, But it is POSSIBLE
that if he made that wager, he could Also Lose
 
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and I'll say it again, we have No idea what he really meant , because if you go back to his 2013 comment, he's saying Nobody in the Supercontest over a 6 year period can beat his overall winning %
Totally different from what BB posted. which we still don't know the Full Bet, because we don't know which video he's taking about.
 

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You said "I'm guessing he's not talking about the Contest itself, because the last 5 years the winner has hit Way over that"

That's why I asked why you think the winner hitting way over that the last 5 years has relevance. Because ya know....you said it.

Do you think it has relevance that people have hit over 58% the last 5 years? Of course he could lose, he thinks he's >50% vs anyone.

Not sure why you think I have a problem because I'm asking you a question based on something you said.


 

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Another question is, is there anyone you would bet on to break the 58% threshold next year? I could see someone having as high as like a 40% chance to win the bet, but not too much higher.

I just think it's too many games to pick to have 60% be your EV.
 

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Another question is, is there anyone you would bet on to break the 58% threshold next year? I could see someone having as high as like a 40% chance to win the bet, but not too much higher.

I just think it's too many games to pick to have 60% be your EV.

What amount of games is the wager for? Would it be 5 per week like the contest?
 

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Another question is, is there anyone you would bet on to break the 58% threshold next year? I could see someone having as high as like a 40% chance to win the bet, but not too much higher.

I just think it's too many games to pick to have 60% be your EV.

Is it every game, or 5 a week using westgate lines?

I would prob be up for this
 

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