I think WMU can easily win this game. I really was surprised not to see them open as favorites. We played them in 2007 and they gift-wrapped the game for us in turnovers the first half and playing 3 QBs. It was 31-3 at halftime but we only won 37-27.
IU is absolutely AWFUL. We almost lost to a FCS team last week, we probably should have. We have NO running game and the QB that was good for us the past two years (Lewis) was kicked off the team for cocaine (I'm sorry, "violation of team rules"). The only source of offense is gone from last year's team. Lynch (the coach) has no clue. The only FBS win last year was against Northwestern, and they gave us +4 turnovers, while we only won by 2 at home. We lost to 2 MAC teams last year in Ball State and Central Michigan (who beat us with out backup quarterback).
There are FAR better bets on the board. Buy this one back, and play Texas Tech-Rice under 66. OR just bet against Indiana 2H. Check that trend out. IU hasn't covered a 2H in ages.
Colorado's offensive line just looked horrible last time out. Toledo's defense is nothing special but if Colorado can't move the ball on Colorado State (similar situation along the D-line to Toledo) then I'm not sure the Buffaloes are capable of putting up big points against anyone. I'd go under if I was forced to play the total but my numbers don't many anything a play other then the side. Best of luck in whatever you decide.
Doing a game or two before I start writing for the day.
My predicted lines:
Virginia Tech -20, O/U 40
Nebraska -14, O/U 60
Boston College -24, O/U 44
Bets and why:
Arkansas State Red Wolves +22.5 -110
I really wish I had gotten the +24.5 that was available earlier in the week but I still think this is a nice play. Arkansas State has a very nice offense that can both run and pass and Nebraska still hasn't fixed their defensive shortcomings. Arkansas State runs very well and that should keep the clock rolling and help the underdog cover. The Cornhuskers have a very nice offense but Arkansas State is very strong on defense and did not allow other teams to put up big points last year.
My predicted lines:
Virginia Tech -20, O/U 40
Nebraska -14, O/U 60
Boston College -24, O/U 44
Bets and why:
Arkansas State Red Wolves +22.5 -110
I really wish I had gotten the +24.5 that was available earlier in the week but I still think this is a nice play. Arkansas State has a very nice offense that can both run and pass and Nebraska still hasn't fixed their defensive shortcomings. Arkansas State runs very well and that should keep the clock rolling and help the underdog cover. The Cornhuskers have a very nice offense but Arkansas State is very strong on defense and did not allow other teams to put up big points last year.
My predicted lines:
Texas -35, O/U 55
BYU -24, O/U 50*
Navy -3, O/U 43
If the line drops from -17.5 to -17, get on BYU.
Bets and why:
Louisiana Tech +7.5 -110
Louisiana Tech/Navy Under 50 -110
Both of these bets barely make the cut but they are here regardless. Navy has the running game but very little else while Louisiana Tech did a good job defending the run last year and has lots of guys back. The Bulldogs only gave up 14 points to an Army team that was doing similar stuff to Navy last year. Louisiana Tech has a nice offense with everyone back and will run successfully and pass when they need too. I expect both teams to grind the clock with the running game while someone hits a last second field goal to break the 20-20 tie.
Texas -35, O/U 55
BYU -24, O/U 50*
Navy -3, O/U 43
If the line drops from -17.5 to -17, get on BYU.
Bets and why:
Louisiana Tech +7.5 -110
Louisiana Tech/Navy Under 50 -110
Both of these bets barely make the cut but they are here regardless. Navy has the running game but very little else while Louisiana Tech did a good job defending the run last year and has lots of guys back. The Bulldogs only gave up 14 points to an Army team that was doing similar stuff to Navy last year. Louisiana Tech has a nice offense with everyone back and will run successfully and pass when they need too. I expect both teams to grind the clock with the running game while someone hits a last second field goal to break the 20-20 tie.
I thought Georgia Tech should be 3-point favorites so I'd take Clemson if I was forced. That being said, there wasn't enough value in the spread for me to make a play.
The under has moved into bettable territory though and I will make a play on that.
Clemson/Georgia Tech Under 44 -106
This one was at like 42 when I handicapped the game a day or two ago but I think there is enough value now to play the under. Both teams have nice running games but both teams also have enough defense to limit the opposing squads to field goals. Running makes the clock tick and supports the under and both should run a ton here.
