Jake's Winning College Football Picks - Week Four (24-17 +6.24 59%)

[JakeT.]

My predicted lines:
East Carolina -10, O/U 36
Rutgers -6, O/U 48
Florida Atlantic -3, O/U 57

Bets and why:

East Carolina/Central Florida Under 46 -110

Central Florida has not shown the ability to pass this season against defenses worse then East Carolina and the Knights just don't put up big points if they can't run. East Carolina dominated their offense last year and should do so again here. The Pirates are improved on offense but also can't pass and Central Florida's defensive line looks good. UCF has also done very well against better offenses this season and East Carolina can grind out some drives but it will take time off the clock. These are not big play offenses and both defenses are better then the opposing offenses.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights -1.5 -110

This one depends on quarterback Tom Savage suiting up (currently listed as questionable) but from what I've read he's doing well and taking all the snaps despite not being hit. He has a concussion but I think Rutgers wins for sure if he plays. Maryland's best offensive lineman is hurt and they are also without a starting defensive lineman and a defensive back. Rutgers' offensive line should dominate the Maryland D line and the Maryland offense is scoring way too many points for how they've produced. Rutgers gets the tough road win. Hopefully Savage suits up. If he does, the line likely goes to -3 so I wanted to get in early since I feel he'll start.

 

[JakeT.]

My personal lines:
Arkansas State Pk, O/U 55
BYU -16, O/U 64
Florida -25, O/U 57

Bets and why:

BYU/Colorado State Over 54.5 -110

BYU can score on anyone and that Colorado State defense is very overrated. Nevada could have easily put up 40+ on them last week but turned the ball over 5 times. BYU should put up around 40 here even with their offensive line injuries. Colorado State can put up points if they get a little running game going and the Cougars are really missing Tialavea in the middle. Colorado State has a very nice offensive line and is capable of putting up 20-27 points.

 

[JakeT.]

My predicted lines:
Middle Tennessee State -8, O/U 54
Kent State -3, O/U 45
Tennessee -19, O/U 35

Bets and why:

Miami Ohio Redhawks +7 -110

This one is kind of scary considering how horrible the Redhawks have looked this season but it's still worth a play. Kent State's offense is a shell of their former selves without running quarterback deluxe Julian Edelman back there. They now have to rely on a conventional running attack and they just lost their starter for a few games. Now they are starting a true freshman and will likely make mistakes and will be limited on how many they can score. They are a team that only scores when they have the run. Miami Ohio is learning a new offense but looked much better their last time out and have a senior quarterback so they should continue to improve. Kent State's star RB is also done for the season.

Tennessee/Ohio Under 44.5 -110

Ohio has a balanced offense but they are not very good at either the run or the pass and they are going up against a very strong Tennessee defense that will dominate them at the point of attack. Ohio won't be able to run against bigger defenders and they would usually rely on the pass but the Vols' secondary has played absolutely incredibly. Tennessee has the offense to put up big points if they get the running game going but they are down two of their most experienced offensive lineman and Ohio has a decent enough line and is good at slowing teams down. Tennessee is also without 2 of their starting wide receivers and that offense has issues.

 

[JakeT.]

My personal lines:
FIU -4, O/U 64
Texas A&M -7, O/U 75

Bets and why:

Florida International +2 -110
FIU/Toledo Over 55.5 -110

Toledo obviously has a nice offense that will score points but they had issues with Florida International's defensive schemes last season and only scored 16. They'll definitely score more then that this time around but still might not get rolling like they are used to on offense. 30 points seems fair. Toledo gave up 38 points to a horrible Colorado offense. They also gave up 35 to a less-experienced FIU team last year that has 10 starters back for this time around. FIU scores 30+ points when they are able to get the run going and that shouldn't be a problem against Toledo. I'm going with the Florida International Panthers in a high scoring affair.

UAB Blazers +14 -110
UAB/Texas A&M Over 63 -110

I really feel I should go 2-unit on both of these but I'm a little gun-shy at the moment - mainly because of the UAB offensive performance against Troy. Utah State just rolled the Aggie offense for 30 points and UAB is better on offense with the exact same mobile quarterback thing going on. Texas A&M's offense is looking terrific and UAB can be beat on defense as evidenced by the fact they are giving up 460 yards a game. The only way this stays under is if both turn the ball over after successful drives.

 

[NYOrange]

Whatya take from the line movement on UNLV? From 6.0 down to 3.5...

 

[JakeT.]

Whatya take from the line movement on UNLV? From 6.0 down to 3.5...

I think when the betting public likes the side I like and the line moves significantly in the other direction ... well ... it means I hit about 40% in that situation. Let's hope it works out. Not a good sign.

 

[msmith2179]

Thank you Jake for capping those 2 games. Check out the ND over I think it's the best one on the board.

 

[JakeT.]

Thank you Jake for capping those 2 games. Check out the ND over I think it's the best one on the board.

No problem and I'll do the ND game first thing today.

 

[Ilovetobet]

TY Jake T

 

[JakeT.]

TY Jake T

No problem man. I have to do all this stuff to figure out my own picks so I might as well share the wealth, ya know?

Anyway, ND and a few other games coming at everyone now.

 

[JakeT.]

My personal lines:
Notre Dame -7, O/U 67
Nebraska -20, O/U 46
Iowa State -22, O/U 54

Bets and why:

Notre Dame/Purdue Over 59.5 -110

This one barely made it but I'll ride along if my buddy msmith2179 likes it. Notre Dame's offense should get close 30-40 here as Purdue can't stop anyone. Notre Dame's defense has been nice enough but Purdue should be able to get something going against them if the run is there (which I expect it to be decently enough) and I'd look for the Boilermakers to get 27-34. Both of these teams can pass effectively and should move the ball quickly down field. Purdue is without a starting offensive lineman so the only thing that will derail this bet would be if ND gets more pressure then the Boilermakers are used to.

Louisiana Lafayette Ragin Cajuns +28 -110
ULL/Nebraska Under 54 -110

ULL has a great running scheme and has all 5 starting lineman back. They should do well to grind clock and get first downs against this Nebraska offense but there is probably no way they score more then 21 points. I figure 10-14 is about right. Nebraska's offense is looking great but they still make mistakes in the passing game and ULL has a stronger run defense then some of the teams they've faced. I expect the Cornhuskers to keep it on the ground and slowly move the chains. It supports the underdog and the under and both numbers have value.

Iowa State -9.5 -110
Iowa State/Army Over 46 -110

This play is based off the fact that I think the Cyclones' offense is explosive and I don't think Army has the personnel to stop them. Army usually keeps scores low and close by using their Triple Option offense and grinding the clock with all those runs but I think Iowa State can score whenever they get the ball and I also think that Army will have some issues against a more athletic Iowa State team. Kent State is another team that puts up big running numbers (not the same offense but still run-based) and Iowa State beat them 34-14 last week. I think Iowa State gets 30+ here which should be all we need for the over and the over.

 

[skives]

Jake what do you think of the Florida/Kentucky Over 53 1/2?

 

[JakeT.]

Jake what do you think of the Florida/Kentucky Over 53 1/2?

My lines were "Florida -25, O/U 57" so I suppose the over has a small amount of value but not enough where I'm going to put money on it. Purely a lean for me.

 

[JakeT.]

My personal lines:
Georgia -11, O/U 51
Auburn -42, O/U 62

Bets and why:

Auburn Tigers -33 -110

So I've had absolutely no success with big favorites this year but Auburn should be able to dominate this squad. Ball State is horrible on offense and is learning new schemes. They will be lucky to get to 10 points against an SEC defense like Auburn. Auburn has Gus Malzahn calling the plays on offense this year and the Tigers are humming against quality defenses. Malzahn called the plays for the same offense in Tulsa last year and Ball State gave up 45 to them when the Cardinals had a better defense. Now without an offense and a worse defense, Ball State is going to lose badly.

 

[msmith2179]

Gald to see you agree even if it barely makes it. Good luck to us

 

[JakeT.]

My personal lines:
Utah -1, O/U 61

Bets and why:

Louisville Cardinals +14 -110
Louisville/Utah Over 51.5 -110

This point spread baffles me and even more so when Utah is still getting bet up. I know it's not easy to win in Utah but Louisville has the offense to put up points. They are in the third year of a powerful Kragthorpe offense and scored 27 against Kentucky. They also are running AND passing which makes them hard to stop. Utah's defense has not been that impressive this season and I think the Cardinals score some points here. Utah gave up 31 points to the only decent offense they've played this year (Oregon) and 15.5 average to two poor offenses in Utah State and San Jose State. Utah can score here as well but I don't think this is a route by any stretch of the imagination. I'm really hesitant to make a 2-unit play this week because nothing is standing out but I can't help but doubling up on this line**. It's not as strong as the first two but it's still worthy. If the Utes can't beat Utah State or San Jose State by 14 at home then I don't see how they dominate Louisville.

**After I wrote that I decided to leave it as a 1-unit play. Something is just too fishy on this line to pull the trigger on. So yeah, disregard above paragraph about it being a 2-unit play.

 

[JakeT.]

My personal lines:
Oregon State Pk, O/U 46
Penn State -15, O/U 41

Bets and why:

Penn State Nittany Lions -9.5 -110

Time to get burned by a backdoor again. Happens every time I bet on Joe Pa and company. Anyway, Iowa is missing their star running back, their best WR, their starting tight end, and their best offensive lineman. Penn State always has an amazing defense so I doubt Iowa scores many points. Penn State's offense has failed to run this season but Iowa has been only average at defending it and I think Daryll Clark can make some plays with his arm to get a 14-20 point victory.

 

[ctdi99]

Jake,

Do you post final card yet?
Thanks

 

[JakeT.]

Jake,

Do you post final card yet?
Thanks

Nah I have 5 or 6 games left to cap and then I'll post them all in one group when I'm done. :toast:

 

[JakeT.]

My predicted lines:
Vanderbilt -13*, O/U 55

*Vandy is only -7 but there is no way I'm touching this line when the public loves Vandy and the line has moved the other way by sharp money.

Bets and why: