Jake's Winning College Football Picks - Week Four (24-17 +6.24 59%)

[NYOrange]

Glad to see I'm on the same side on the only two similar plays. Played the Buffalo ML +110 and might add on a tad more at +120. On UNLV -6.0 and although it's dropped I'm just going to let it ride...I see UNLV by 10-17 here.

GL this weekend. Might tail on a few of these totals since you've been so hot.

 

[JakeT.]

Weird season, proven cappers like pags11, coach LT, gosooners among others are struggling a few of them having the worst starts to seasons they ever had and look at Jake, he is winning big...

WOW

Yeah, my previous 4 college football years really don't warrant me a "proven capper".

Overall Record: 320-263 (54.8%) +66.08 Units
2-UNIT PLAYS: 59-30 (66.3%)

hno:hno:hno:

<img src="http://forumpolitics.com/pics/moran-sign.jpg">

 

[JakeT.]

Glad to see I'm on the same side on the only two similar plays. Played the Buffalo ML +110 and might add on a tad more at +120. On UNLV -6.0 and although it's dropped I'm just going to let it ride...I see UNLV by 10-17 here.

GL this weekend. Might tail on a few of these totals since you've been so hot.

Best of luck man. What's the weather in NY looking like? Flying in there for my grandma's 90th birthday party in mid-October before heading to Vegas on the way back. Gonna be one fun trip.

 

[JakeT.]

PS, for anyone not familiar with those 4 years of the documented record above.... 2 of the years were losing seasons were I thought I was good enough to just pick games off the card without handicapping. The 2 I actually handicapped games in the way I'm doing now I hit like 60% with 75% on the 2-unit games. Probably not attainable long term but I'm convinced I know how to beat this sport.

 

[NYOrange]

Best of luck man. What's the weather in NY looking like? Flying in there for my grandma's 90th birthday party in mid-October before heading to Vegas on the way back. Gonna be one fun trip.

It's not too bad. High 60-70's. Syracuse is up and down though. Could have snow in as little as a month although doubtful. I do remember trick or treating as a kid in a few inches of snow more than once though. We've also been up to 80 degrees in November. Just odd around here. Odd's are it'll be in the 50's-mid 60's when you're here though. Unless you're going to be around the NYC area which is a whole different ball game.

 

[JakeT.]

It's not too bad. High 60-70's. Syracuse is up and down though. Could have snow in as little as a month although doubtful. I do remember trick or treating as a kid in a few inches of snow more than once though. We've also been up to 80 degrees in November. Just odd around here. Odd's are it'll be in the 50's-mid 60's when you're here though. Unless you're going to be around the NYC area which is a whole different ball game.

Heading to Rochester so not too far from Syracuse. I just remember stories of lots of snow but I wasn't sure when the heavy stuff actually hit. Thanks for the info.

 

[sportsnut]

hey jake,sorry we didnt touch base last week,we had company over and was a bit hectic......awesome record on your totals.hope you hit all your overs this week.will try to get in touch with you again. jeff

 

[TheSaint]

love the mizzou over, think it'll fly over the vegas total. gl this week Jake.

 

[msmith2179]

Jake, 2 games I would like to hear your take on are Miami/Va Tech and Pitt/NCST. I'm leaning towards Miami and Pitt. Thank you

 

[JakeT.]

hey jake,sorry we didnt touch base last week,we had company over and was a bit hectic......awesome record on your totals.hope you hit all your overs this week.will try to get in touch with you again. jeff

No worries. Best of luck this week and hit me up whenever you get a chance. :howdy:

 

[JakeT.]

love the mizzou over, think it'll fly over the vegas total. gl this week Jake.

Let's get it in.

 

[JakeT.]

Jake, 2 games I would like to hear your take on are Miami/Va Tech and Pitt/NCST. I'm leaning towards Miami and Pitt. Thank you

I posted this on the Miami game. My personal lines were: Miami -7, O/U 41.

Miami Hurricanes -2.5 -110

Virginia Tech is going to be a huge test for the Miami offense but I think they have enough of a run/pass variation to put up points. One thing that scares me is that Virginia Tech defends the run incredibly and the Hokies are great against the pass this season. That being said, the Hokies' offense can't score when they can't run and Miami has enough athletes and a strong enough defensive line to do well against Tyrod Taylor and friends. Virginia Tech struggled against a weaker Miami team last year and will likely do the same this time around. 14 points from the Hurricanes could just be enough to cover. I think a final score of 24-17 sounds right. Maybe even a bigger deficit.







The first one I do today will be NC State/Pitt.

 

[ctdi99]

Jake, which is 2 units play for under/over?
Thanks

 

[JakeT.]

Jake, which is 2 units play for under/over?
Thanks

None as of yet. I still have half the card to hopefully find one I like.

 

[JakeT.]

My predicted lines:
Northern Illinois -10*, O/U 50
Central Michigan -11**, O/U 51
Alabama -13, O/U 67

*Some books have moved to Idaho +17 but none of mine currently have. As soon as it moves (which it's likely to do IMO) I'll be on it at that number and provide reasoning then.

**Also waiting on a +17 but it looks like I missed the number. Best I can find it +16.5 and I don't really see this one moving back to my number. I might settle for +16.5 later in the week. I really want that extra half point on these two games to make them plays. I try to get a touchdown better then my lines on the bigger point spreads.

Bets and why:

Alabama/Arkansas Over 57.5 -110

Alabama still has a dominant running game and they proved they could score against a good defense when they put up 34 against Virginia Tech. Arkansas is not as good as the Hokies and gave up 30+ to LSU and Georgia (52 here) who are comparable offenses. LSU is probably worse and Georgia is about the same as Alabama. Arkansas is in year 2 of Petrino's offense and they have looked incredible. Bama has one of the best D's in the nation but the Razorbacks will put up points on anyone and teams that could both run and pass were able to put up 20+ consistently against a great Bama D last year.

Idaho Vandals +17 -110

This one might move another half-point but I'm happy with my line. Just a quick explanation as I'm busy. Idaho is much improved and can run and pass. Northern Illinois' offense doesn't score big points.

 

[BoiseBrian]

love the vandals,
this year have been $$$$, last year was a good fade

Whats your take on the BSU line?
Leaning towards BSU, but they have to tackle better. I am thinking Justin Wilcox will be on their asses all week. also leaning under.

GL to you this week

 

[JakeT.]

love the vandals,
this year have been $$$$, last year was a good fade

Whats your take on the BSU line?
Leaning towards BSU, but they have to tackle better. I am thinking Justin Wilcox will be on their asses all week. also leaning under.

GL to you this week

I'll get this game and the NC State game up here within the hour. Haven't even looked at the lines for either yet. 3 more articles to do and I'll start handicapping again.

 

[JakeT.]

The two games that were requested earlier...

My personal lines:
Pittsburgh -1, O/U 47
Boise State -11, O/U 45

Bets and why:

Nothing here. Lean on Bowling Green since I think it will be a low-scoring game (at least for BSU standards) and that favors the big underdog. I'll play BG if it moves to 20 but I doubt I'll see that happen.

 

[JiveTurkey]

thx for the bump.. liking your plays this week.. especially that Idaho play.. Idaho for sure is a sleeper team this year.. them along side with UNLV from the WAC.. theyll both be covering alot of spreads this season.. liking both of those.

side note, hate to see you on Miami.. lets hope for a Miami 3 pt win! GL Jake

 

[JakeT.]

thx for the bump.. liking your plays this week.. especially that Idaho play.. Idaho for sure is a sleeper team this year.. them along side with UNLV from the WAC.. theyll both be covering alot of spreads this season.. liking both of those.

side note, hate to see you on Miami.. lets hope for a Miami 3 pt win! GL Jake

It's not really a play on Miami as much as it is against Virginia Tech's ability to move the ball. Offenses that can pass AND run can beat top defenses for some points but offenses that can only run and can't pass don't beat top defenses. Just something I've noticed. A balanced offense is generally good for 10-20 against a very good defense. A run-only team is generally only good for about 6-10 against a very good defense. Unless it's a GTech/Navy/Army Triple option look. Then it gets a little confusing. Cheers brother.

:toast: