thanks ducky, should have made it more clear that imo anything over 3.0 for the draw was a bargain. A more conservative bet for today, game starts in an hour, sorry for the late post but I had to get a few details absolutely certain.
Akratitos v. Larisa
Larisa pk at 1.8 (betfair - 10bet, gamebookers and bet365 offer equal or better prices) for 5%
We are getting the better team here, the more motivated team, the more historical team and the team with less absences to make sure their first round 1-0 home win is enough to get them through to the final 4 of the Greek Cup. Sure the 1-0 cushion from the first game is seemingly an insentive to not bet this one, but my numbers have it that usually the better team going into a cup game with a lead and only having to defend a draw, usually ends up with the win, let's hope this will apply here too.
I am also taking the halftime draw at 2.1 (centrebet, you might get better prices elsewhere but that's my preffered out for this one) for 2.5%. This is more akin to an under bet than anything else, since I find the 1.6 price for the under unacceptably marginal, I prefer a scoreless first half, including (amongst other much less likely occurences) the 1-1 draw option. Both will be very cautious, as a goal against Akratitos early on, will doom them, and the cold weather and so and so pitch conditions will work in favour of a slow start.
bol.
