Jack's Select Plays 06-07

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Here we go. Best of luck. Managed to squeeze in a few hours of capping, let's see if I manage to do so every week or so.

Same as per usual, as with last year, fixed percentage stakes on a starting bankroll (i.e. say 5% of whatever 100% we began with, percentages don't fluctuate with bankroll increase or decrease, so a 5% is always a fixed amount) with an average size of 5-6%, could go as low as 2-2.5% or as high as 15%, and I might throw in a couple of 20-25% as I did last year (a losing 25% that was, one of the last bets lol.). Hmm, what else, the prices I ll quote will be as available both in number of shops as well as in liquidity as I can, most of you here know where I, and most of us bet, the exchanges, pinnacle, some of the asian handicap players, a few decent european shops if they offer a good price. I ll bet almost all footie, euro leagues, my home league, champions league etc., time won't allow for a lot of bets, but this thread is not about begging for action but actually turning a profit, will dwelve a bit in bball probably too.


I like chalk, as some know, and chalk I will for the first bet of the season. (well almost the first, some sweet dough came my way courtesy of the greek national bball team playing some virtual unknows from the americas)

Olympiakos over Paok at 1.35 (widely available) for 10%.


The handicap at 2.0 of -1 1/4 looks just about right at pinnacle's 1.99, well, with a lean on olympiakos, might later regret for not betting it, but I ll stick with the moneylne, although I wouldn't dissuade anyone who's after an extra risk to bet it.

Not much else I like from my home league, it's the beginning of the season and I am being careful too, maybe If I d invested more time I could have come up with a couple more bets, but more in gambling is not neccesarily better, and most of the time it's worse. So I ll be satisfied with a 3.5% increase of the bankroll, a gift really as I wouldn't want to lay this game at anything more than 1.22. I am also looking for a commanding performance of Milan over Aek, the moneyline price is currently a 1.2 and the handicaps as far as I can see have yet to come out.

I also like bolton, chelsea, and even more so newcastle and Totenham +1 goal, and I ll be betting them, but I won't figure them in the record, not yet, due to time constraints, will take a long time with bankroll percentages and all, win or lose, and the type ups, so I am keeping it brief. Unfortunatelly this forum doesn't have the luxury of record keepers that its larger siblings at the rx have got.


Bol.

Jack.
 

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Jack is back to his winning ways..easy winner with Olympiakos:103631605
 

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john, joey, quantum, hooligans, good to see you too guys.

2-0. End Result and a very conveincing performance by Olympiakos, at least in the first half before switching to a lower gear for energy conservation in view of the Valencia cl game coming up. Told you I d regret not betting the handicap, hopefully there were some takers here. Let's update our virgin record.

YTD 1-0, +3.5% of the Bankroll.

(A win in total in the epl games too, albeit marginal, with bolton and chelsea coming in, newcastle losing, and tottenham drawing the +1 handicap, but like I said I can't be arsed to keep a record for these yet)
 

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early selections for the cl.

Olympiakos Valencia Under 2 1/4 at 1.75 for 5% (defensively minded Olympiakos, tough Valencia defence, playing field in horrible conditions, dry and almost unacceptable for a football game (been there last week), esp. at this level. Valencia players are in for a surprise, he, he...)

AC Milan over Aek at 1.2 for 7.5%
AC Milan -1 3/4 for 5%.


And I m toying with either laying Valencia or betting Olympiakos on the level ball, reason I 've not decided yet is that I am an Olympiakos fan and that usually taints my impartiality.
 

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Jack what do you think about Olympiakos not to score? I can't see how the Valencia defense will have any problems with attackers like Konstantinou and Castillo upfront. The only way they can score IMO is if Rivaldo makes a free kick from somewhere
 

Woah, woah, Daddy's wrong, Mommy's right.
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Jack,

Quick question. When you have the play at 7.5%, is that to win 7.5% of bankroll or risk? Winning 7.5% on Milan is risking 37.5%. Thanks.
 

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I don't mean to intrude, but I assume the percentage is what he risks, just because it makes more sense and because he always uses decimal odds.
 

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you are not intruding kirk, you are very welcome, and that's exactly what I am doing, risk % on the starting bankroll.

Nailed that Under right on the head, with Olympiakos there with the game ending at 2-4...way to go jackie...lot's of factors sided with this going over OTHER than chance, early goal, some (again terrible set up of the team from coach Solid despite his proclamations for defensive football), blah, blah, lots of too technical details I won't bore you with, bottom line I got a royal ass whooping and a very deserved one which brings the YTD to 1-1 and -2.5%.

I am very confident with my Milan picks though, and I think we 'll get that money back and then some, btw Milan is at 1.99 odds on the handicap.
 

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:pope::drink::money:

I was actually considering raising my bet on the handicap by 2.5% reconsidering the abysmal difference between the two teams, but this can be considered as rationalising a possible chase, well marginally, but it can, so I won't.

giorgos, missed your post, I was actually considering olympiakos scoring a very, very good possibility, given their historical record at home, and 1-0 score, hence the under. Didn't expect the goal fest, but I guess I underestimated Solid's stupidity, some people never learn, fuck it...

Milan will blow Aek away tommorow. You can bet on it. At least I did, lol.
 

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Awesome, now I have 37.5% of my bankroll on Milan to win outright. As always, the lesson here is, I am an idiot.
 

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You are not an idiot buddy, mistakes happen, in any case I think that nothing short of miracle should happen for milan to dissapoint us today.
 

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Thanks Jack, and I agree. The translation from Euro lines to American lines got me. On favorites you guys bet an amount, we bet an amount to win.
 

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JackDee said:
You are not an idiot buddy, mistakes happen, in any case I think that nothing short of miracle should happen for milan to dissapoint us today.

Milans defence is ageing a bit, but other than that they have too much quality in Kaka and Pirlo. I hope for all our sakes they get a big win!!:suomi:
 

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Kaka won't be playing tonight, dunno why, but I just heard it on the radio, shit happens.

If you are talking about milan's defence you should see aek's offence which is the pits...
 

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uefa's website has kaka in the starting lineup, not sure if it's accurate but hope so!:103631605
 

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