February 2, 2020
We’ve had a great week, time to finish it off with the biggest betting day of the year.
Today, I’m concentrating on the one game no bettor can resist. The Super Bowl. I’m not even going to try and tell you NOT to bet on the game, because you will anyway. But the line is set at KC -1 at most books because this is a toss up game. On any given Sunday with a full slate of games, I wouldn’t touch this match up. But that’s not the case today. So, onto my pick to finish up a GUARANTEED WINNING WEEK based on our 6-1 mark so far. $100 bettors are up close to $500 this week after our 6-1 run!
SUPER BOWL
SAN FRANCISCO +1 vs KANSAS CITY
San Francisco wins in a tight game. Bottom line, the 49ers have the better defense, and better running game. I can't remember the last time I've seen a team so deep at RB. The teams that rarely or never make Super Bowls should take note of what gets teams to a Super Bowl more times than not.
The biggest concern for KC? I question the Chiefs' OL ability to protect Mahomes. Even the Lions almost beat KC earlier this year. How? Because it was one of the few times the Lions pressured any team's QB all year. If Reid figures out a way to nullify the 49ers pass rush - the Niners will be in trouble. One way to do that is to go no huddle. And I do worry about Mahomes vs SF's zone defense, which the Niners love to run. Mahomes has chewed up zone defenses all season. The way to beat beat Mahomes is constant pressure and split between zone and man-to-man. The 49ers will need to play more M2M than they usually do. That is worrisome. But the lack of an effective KC running game gives SF the ability to concentrate on Mahomes, Hill, and Kelce.
There’s no doubt that Mahomes is the premier QB in the NFL. He dazzled me in training camp in 2018, and I was on his bandwagon before most (drafting him won me my 2018 Fantasy League). But Mahomes is only one man in the ultimate team game. Just look at Dan Marino. Clearly the best passer of his era. He played (and lost) in a single Super Bowl. While the public and media drool over Mahomes, I’m looking at this from a wholistic POV. Mahomes covers up the Chief’s warts, namely their OL and lack of a running game. Losing Kareem Hunt changed this team and caused what looked like an unstoppable offense to have a vulnerability. Let’s face it, when you are trading for Shady McCoy – you’re reaching. And that lack of a running game allows TALENTED DL’s to focus on Mahomes. Fortunately for the Chiefs, not many teams have a DL like SF. But they will see athleticism at that position like they’ve not seen all season. IMO, the 49ers are a few plays away from being an undefeated team this year.
On the flip side, the Chief’s defense is NOWHERE NEAR the level of the 49ers. Making matters worse, San Francisco has a superior OL that is bolstered with great blocking by George Kittle and Kyle Juszczyk. With a stable of RB’s that goes 4 deep, and talented WR’s, the Niners offense is not anything to sneeze at. I expect Jimmy G to pass more than the 8 times he did in the NFC Championship Game, and the balance the Niners bring, on both sides of the ball, will be enough to secure them the franchise’s 6[SUP]th[/SUP] Super Bowl victory.
If SF gets up early, and controls the game with their RB’s, this could be a wider margin of victory than most think. On the flip side, if the Chiefs run an effective no-huddle, keep the 49er’s pass rush at bay, and give Mahomes time to pick apart a zone secondary, they could easily win. But the balance of the 49ers, combined with the fact they are more of a complete TEAM leads me to place my money on San Francisco +1
