Journeyman said:
Journey,
I quit posting my plays in tracker forum before due to time constraints and feeling like I had to be there every time I made a move and thought others might not beleive the line I got, etc....
The 1 problem also is alot of these bets are gone within minutes after I bet them. Than you get people calling you out and the last thing I feel like doing is arguing about winning. It's not a capping idea but a system, the best advice I could give anybody is try to bet scalpable lines at sqaure books (mostly square books) versus Pinny. Also some of these bets like I said are with my local and they are bascially openers. Do this little project sign up at SIA and a few other square books and bet every breakeven scalp you find (esp 1st halfs and halftimes) bet with Pinny. That way you have no risk and tell me what books you are beating, Pinny or the square books. That sums it up in a nutshell. The problem with first time scalpers is they don't have enough outs and dont no where (type of plays) and when to look. I learned the hard way from WEEKS of hit and miss.
I could come up with 30 plays and you could be doing the same thing and come up with 30 different plays. Seems hard to belevie maybe for some but i have witnessed this for around 1,000 plays. If you start out playing good and making the best plays than I think this isn't difficult at all. I think with openers, watching line moves, beating steam, having weak locals and working your ass off (to the point your GF is pissed) and now with HT being beatable, I think 54.5% isn't out of reach.
BUT REMEMBER IT IS ALOT OF WORK!!!!!
Iceman said:
How many hours are you putting in for one, and could you be doing this without any slow moving locals?
I remember when you first had started this and you seemed ready to quit after a couple weeks...do you make most of your wagers in a short window of time each day or all day long, I would think all day long?
also you mentioned it didn't work in baseball or was that just your own plays? As i recall you heated up in Sept I believe.
ICE- In my "Hay Days", was making over 30 wagers a day quite frequently.
Always chuckle when I hear somebody state that one has to be "selective" to win at sportsbetting. Being "selective" with ones picks is just one of many approaches the sophisticated sportsbettor can attack the bookie.
Always chuckle when I hear somebody state that one has to be "selective" to win at sportsbetting. Being "selective" with ones picks is just one of many approaches the sophisticated sportsbettor can attack the bookie.
Journeyman said:
hours I would say 5 a day but just depends on how much effort you want to put into this. I just feel alot more orgainized when I pay attention to this off and on all day but I think it is a MUST to work on this between 6pm -10pm nightly but like I said it is putting a huge strain on my realtionship. Find myself obviously finding better bets the more time I put into this but line movement is huge starting an hour or so before games.
Sum it all up. Last winter after getting crushed betting mostly dogs during NFL a fellow poster showed me how to middle and scalp and after a few frustating weeks and too small of a bankroll and not enough outs I decided to just basically bet small with bad number and not buy back as I noticed I was beating the square book and number alot more. I proceed to win 6 straight weeks.
Tried a similar startegy with bases by beating the closing line and got beat most of the year. Did good at the beginning but it was a slow death. Maybe it has something to do with it being a moneyline sport. Football I love to cap the NFL and with a square local have middle him pretty good and it is easy taking lead if you watch line movemnet all week. Hoops is football all crammerd into 1 day. No capping just betting good numbers and I have took right off where I left last year.
Try my project (scalp and see where you win at) and learn how to find good numbers. Get 2 monitors and a line service. Use Pinny dynamic lines to see line movements before other books. Right before game see if your bets are beating the closing number by a point or so (sides in NBA can be about a half point). I once read if you beat the closing line in NBA by 1 point betting just dogs you will win 55% pct. I completley beleive it. The theory is the closing line wins 50% with dogs and favs and you are adding an extra point or 2 to that 50% number. So in essence you are going from 50% wagers to 54% because most numbers hit 4% of the time. Now that is a VERY basic explaination but I think you get my point. The thing is betting 30 plays is a good thing because they are all (hopefully 53% plays) and the more winning plays the less luck and the more money you are making. I have to go back to work but will join back later
you should increase your bet size. you will not be in the zone forever where you are finding 30 good bets a day. if you feel you are on top of your game, go for it.
i have struggled with upping my bet size all football season. i have sort of done it. but i make a ton of 3/4th-size bets, which is basically a bet where i am not going on anything other than raw market factors. i don't feel too confident in the bet so it is hard to bet the full amount, but i bet if i tracked it, these bets are probably my strongest.
i have struggled with upping my bet size all football season. i have sort of done it. but i make a ton of 3/4th-size bets, which is basically a bet where i am not going on anything other than raw market factors. i don't feel too confident in the bet so it is hard to bet the full amount, but i bet if i tracked it, these bets are probably my strongest.
Ice,
These 30 per day are no handicapping, correct? You are just playing into soft lines with no opinions based on handicapping?
If that is the case, and I believe I am summarizing what others have said, then you are basically at a 50/50 type situation, with the advantage leaning to you because you bet a number that is not available widely. 30 plays is a boatload of work per day, and I don't think that you affect your percentage too much by dropping from 30 to 20 and risking more per play. The 10 plays that you drop would be the ones I imagine where your "line advantage" is the smallest. One of the biggest problems in business (and you are treating this like a business) is that people put too little value on their time. It would take you much less time per day to accomplish what you want to accomplish, IMO.
Losing streaks happen, but in this case, I think you shouldn't worry about the big losing streak too much since the odds are very low. Plus, with bonuses/scalps/middles, etc., you probably bring the advantage to you even more, further enabling you to take a losing streak in stride.
My two cents. Lot of knowledge in this thread. Gotta love the RX.
HW
These 30 per day are no handicapping, correct? You are just playing into soft lines with no opinions based on handicapping?
If that is the case, and I believe I am summarizing what others have said, then you are basically at a 50/50 type situation, with the advantage leaning to you because you bet a number that is not available widely. 30 plays is a boatload of work per day, and I don't think that you affect your percentage too much by dropping from 30 to 20 and risking more per play. The 10 plays that you drop would be the ones I imagine where your "line advantage" is the smallest. One of the biggest problems in business (and you are treating this like a business) is that people put too little value on their time. It would take you much less time per day to accomplish what you want to accomplish, IMO.
Losing streaks happen, but in this case, I think you shouldn't worry about the big losing streak too much since the odds are very low. Plus, with bonuses/scalps/middles, etc., you probably bring the advantage to you even more, further enabling you to take a losing streak in stride.
My two cents. Lot of knowledge in this thread. Gotta love the RX.
HW
let's just say you can and do maintain your current win %.
u bet $100 and want to increase it to $200. If you do that your local will either go under or stop taking your action twice as fast.
bump it up $10 or $15 a bet, that way you're only risking a total of 300 to 450 more per night.
If you double it than it will be like your bookie has 2 players killing him.
you gotta remember that gambling is a zero sum game, in order for you to win someone else has to loose.
u bet $100 and want to increase it to $200. If you do that your local will either go under or stop taking your action twice as fast.
bump it up $10 or $15 a bet, that way you're only risking a total of 300 to 450 more per night.
If you double it than it will be like your bookie has 2 players killing him.
you gotta remember that gambling is a zero sum game, in order for you to win someone else has to loose.
Only had time to read Ice's initial post, will read the rest later.
Quick opinion is the number of plays is high, roughly 10,000 a year, but Ice is one man that could do that ( kinda like me).
I think he has the percentage, but has to get the bet size up, to justify the time spent, if it's really 54% + over many thousands of picks, then his method is valid.
Sorry if covered already, I'll read it thru later.
Summer season seems the problem, so he needs 60 bets a day for 6 months, more accurately.
The dude is so determined, I think he has a chance. At worst he wins less than the goal, IMO !
Quick opinion is the number of plays is high, roughly 10,000 a year, but Ice is one man that could do that ( kinda like me).
I think he has the percentage, but has to get the bet size up, to justify the time spent, if it's really 54% + over many thousands of picks, then his method is valid.
Sorry if covered already, I'll read it thru later.
Summer season seems the problem, so he needs 60 bets a day for 6 months, more accurately.
The dude is so determined, I think he has a chance. At worst he wins less than the goal, IMO !
royalfan said:
i don't get out of some of them. I am getting good enough that I beat the closer a high pct but yes I think I am probably hitting 50% on these type plays but they are included in my 54.5% win pct.
Honestly guys I think 75 plays a day is not out of the question but that would involve halftimes and a full cbb board. The key is 1st halves and 1st quarters (which I haven't overly explored) which means more plays total because it allows you to churn over your BR more throughtout the nite). 30 seems realistic and not difficult at all. Betting with a couple locals and hitting them for $100 plays isn't being noticed at all with them. Bottom line if you are beating 10 books each out of 6k a year (including 2 locals) ,you are doing fairly well.
We haven't even begun to talk about bonuses and the likes which I think someone can make $500 -$1,000 extra a month by just being orgainized.
dankhank said:
good post. The whole zone thing is exacly what i am talking about. I thought last year that I was a nut when it came to betting all day but now I have turned it up a notch (at least) and when you do that I think you earn more and catch alot more breaks. This is my whole point, if you want to be good at something you have to try harder at it than everybody and learn as much as you can about it and then put it too work.
not unusual for me to churn 100 bets in a day, or 10 NT transactions, I think we all find what works for the individual involved. What I have to work on is leaking so FUCKING much money to Pinny.
I win, but it's at places like Sportsbook,Wagerweb,MB, Mansion, 5D, Trojan,POP, etc.
I'd hate to know how much Pinnacle is ahead of me !
I win, but it's at places like Sportsbook,Wagerweb,MB, Mansion, 5D, Trojan,POP, etc.
I'd hate to know how much Pinnacle is ahead of me !
