Is The Texas Covid ‘Spike’ Fake News?

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The trends are somewhat alarming, but I think overblown a bit by MSM.

With the significant spike in cases, many are expecting hospitalizations and deaths hold the same percentages that they did back in April. So far that trend has not materialized to a large extent, thankfully. If it did, we would be at 300K quickly. Deaths as a percentage of cases using cases from 2 weeks ago is down from 2% on average to 1.5% in Texas using a 4 week trendline. Data is similar in Florida (I don't track every state), but deaths as a percentage of cases were around 8% on average a month ago, and at about 2% currently. Again, using deaths today divided by cases 2 weeks ago.

Leads to the theory that - many people testing now are asymptomatic, and recover either in or out of the hospital. Hospitals probably getting better at treating this as they learn more about it. Virus could be weakening.

Raw deaths are up though in both Florida and Texas. Texas nearly double where they were in daily deaths from 4 weeks ago. You'd like to see this number go down as opposed to up of course. Hoping that we can see the trends reverse.

Hard to imagine putting a lot of stock into cases. The only number that can't be manipulated is deaths, so I'm going with that (as I have from the start). If you're recovering, from a statistical standpoint, that's a non-event.
 

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Hard to imagine putting a lot of stock into cases. The only number that can't be manipulated is deaths, so I'm going with that (as I have from the start). If you're recovering, from a statistical standpoint, that's a non-event.

They say that deaths can be manipulated. But really any data set can be, so I lean towards all data being "directionally correct" in regards to COVID.

Totally agree that new cases mean nothing, because the outcome is what matters. And there are only 2 outcomes - recovery or death. So, by analyzing death rates, you indirectly analyze recovery rates anyway. Hospitalization is another stat people look at, but it is not as leading of an indicator as it was a month or two ago. More people are making it alive out of the hospital now than they were 2 months ago. Hospital capacity is a stat that people are very worried about, because they believe that a hospital at 100% capacity will start turning away gravely ill patients, causing death rates to go up. What people don't account for is the hospital ability to create room or to transfer patients. 100% capacity isn't really 100% capacity.

Once we get past this, there will be a 3rd outcome. Recovered but messed up for life in some way. Not sure how many of those there will be.
 
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I'm more than happy to call out the Useful Idiots when they move the goalposts to what fits their fear mongering when one metric isn't working. My metric has never changed as I feel the most important stat has always been deaths.

With that said, deaths are indeed trending upward in Texas (sorry to say). Yes, I realize that the overall figure is not impressive as 2,655 is still a small percentage of the overall population of 29 million and we had significantly more deaths for the flu/pneumonia just 3 years ago (over 14k). Nonetheless, I'm not going to get caught up in the politics of this thing and ignore a trend that is developing. If I'm going to expect a balanced approach by the Useful Idiots, I would be a hypocrite to not be fair in my evaluation of the numbers. I mentioned this to Choptalk in his national thread, claiming most people should be more interested in their local area and that the national numbers are skewed by areas of high density (i.e New York) with a much smaller geographic area than Texas. The Texas numbers are simply trending upward. There's no other way to look at it. It clearly started with the protests (not even debatable) and has continued upward. And unfortunately, in addition to the BLM bullshit, there were also some protests this weekend over mask policies that did not help matters. I do hope this trend reverses.

Numbers effective from yesterday:

Last week 252 deaths
2 weeks ago 211 deaths
3 weeks ago 209 deaths
4 weeks ago 147 deaths

And that's how easily things can change in a moment of foolishness.

Imagine, then, how much many - MANY - times worse it would have been if C-19 was treated as "just another flu" (as some forum members have said & still say now) since the beginning until now.
 

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And that's how easily things can change in a moment of foolishness.

Imagine, then, how much many - MANY - times worse it would have been if C-19 was treated as "just another flu" (as some forum members have said & still say now) since the beginning until now.

azzkick(&^
 

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This shit , agenda push is done / it’s over

To update you once a heart attack drug guy had thousands at his funeral , thousands and thousands could riot and protests, blacks didn’t have to wear masks in Oregon, and Cal gov kept his winery open while everyone could not go to church, go to a park , Nashville mayor said no fireworks but allowed BLM protest

It became bullshit , so stop the bumps and troll and the bullshit , it’s over , wake up, it’s an agenda , ur being played like the bitch you are, be a solution, not the problem u so choose to be
 

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Actually...people under 20, in their 20's to 40's, 50's to 70's, etc, are dying.

um, not really - anyone dying under 50 is a one in a million case unless they have a myriad of existing conditions
 
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This shit , agenda push is done / it’s over

To update you once a heart attack drug guy had thousands at his funeral , thousands and thousands could riot and protests, blacks didn’t have to wear masks in Oregon, and Cal gov kept his winery open while everyone could not go to church, go to a park , Nashville mayor said no fireworks but allowed BLM protest

It became bullshit , so stop the bumps and troll and the bullshit , it’s over , wake up, it’s an agenda , ur being played like the bitch you are, be a solution, not the problem u so choose to be

What are you trying to say.

You sound like someone drunk out his mind.

Or on LSD, or something.
 

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They say that deaths can be manipulated. But really any data set can be, so I lean towards all data being "directionally correct" in regards to COVID.

I'm not sure who "they" are, but if it's the same group of people that tabulated a death count significantly lower just four weeks ago, should I throw out that figure also? It seems odd to me to take a stance that numbers are fabricated if they don't work in the direction people would like, but accept them when they do.
 

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They could be anybody. People are working backwards. They take a stance, and then look to data to back up their argument. With so many data points, they are bound to find something to prove that their stance is the right way. And then, all other sets of data get thrown out. People in the sales business are usually really good at this. Or, if they can't find a piece of data that fits, they say that the data is manipulated.

It's why the goalposts move so often. Data is changing day to day, so people adjust day to day on what fits their narrative.






I'm not sure who "they" are, but if it's the same group of people that tabulated a death count significantly lower just four weeks ago, should I throw out that figure also? It seems odd to me to take a stance that numbers are fabricated if they don't work in the direction people would like, but accept them when they do.
 

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They could be anybody. People are working backwards. They take a stance, and then look to data to back up their argument. With so many data points, they are bound to find something to prove that their stance is the right way. And then, all other sets of data get thrown out. People in the sales business are usually really good at this. Or, if they can't find a piece of data that fits, they say that the data is manipulated.

It's why the goalposts move so often. Data is changing day to day, so people adjust day to day on what fits their narrative.

True. One doesn't need to "prove" their point on covid though, one just needs to step outside and observe this new world. It sucks. Covid is very real.
 

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Covid is real. Pretty sure most agree. The things in question are:

1. How serious is it in general
2. How serious is it for those who are not old and compromised
3. What do we do about it

If you ask many different people these questions, you will get a variety of answers. And when they answer, most people cannot see things from the other side. If you are a shutdown person, you think that open the economy people are wrong and you will point to statistics to prove that they are wrong. Same on the other side. The truth lies somewhere in the middle, as it usually does.



True. One doesn't need to "prove" their point on covid though, one just needs to step outside and observe this new world. It sucks. Covid is very real.
 

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Abbott and Texas wanted to show the nation that the Northeast were a bunch of nany state scared pink hat statists, so show us.

I'm surprised they didn't have more fight in them, 2500 deaths? That's pretty weak off 30m people.
 

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Abbott and Texas wanted to show the nation that the Northeast were a bunch of nany state scared pink hat statists, so show us.

I'm surprised they didn't have more fight in them, 2500 deaths? That's pretty weak off 30m people.

ya i don't get it. back tracking is just going to hurt them in the long run.
 

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They could be anybody. People are working backwards. They take a stance, and then look to data to back up their argument. With so many data points, they are bound to find something to prove that their stance is the right way. And then, all other sets of data get thrown out. People in the sales business are usually really good at this. Or, if they can't find a piece of data that fits, they say that the data is manipulated.

It's why the goalposts move so often. Data is changing day to day, so people adjust day to day on what fits their narrative.

That's not exactly addressing my post. The issue that I'm having with the notion that suddenly the deaths are being manipulated is that the same department gave considerably better numbers four weeks ago. One would have to assume that you're implying they switched the people that were computing the information and that group had a different narrative. Otherwise I would think one would need to accept the good and the bad numbers.
 

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