- Secret Agreement between Iran and P5+1 Eases Iran Nuclear Constraints - George Jahn
Key restrictions on Iran's nuclear program imposed under an internationally negotiated deal will ease in slightly more than a decade, cutting the time Tehran would need to build a bomb to six months from present estimates of a year, according to a document obtained Monday by The Associated Press.
The document is the only part linked to last year's deal between Iran and six foreign powers that hasn't been made public. It was given to the AP by a diplomat whose work has focused on Iran's nuclear program for more than a decade.
The document says that as of January 2027 - 11 years after the deal was implemented - Iran can start replacing its mainstay centrifuges with thousands of advanced machines. Centrifuges churn out uranium to levels that can range from use as reactor fuel and for medical and research purposes to much higher levels for the core of a nuclear warhead. From year 11 to 13, says the document, Iran can install centrifuges up to five times as efficient as the 5,060 machines it is now restricted to using. If the enrichment rate doubles, that breakout time would be reduced to six months, and not 12. (Associated Press)
- U.S. Can't Let Iran Get Away With Murder - Toby Dershowitz
Interpol red notices for five former Iranian officials found culpable in Argentina's deadliest terrorist attack are about to come up for renewal. Today marks 22 years since the bombing of the AMIA Jewish community center in Buenos Aires. Eighty-five people were killed, and the attack injured hundreds more -- innocent men, women and children.
In advance of the upcoming Interpol General Assembly this November, Iran has been engaging in a full court press, including a legal challenge, to have the red notices lifted. Since cutting a nuclear deal with Iran a year ago, the administration has often failed to hold Tehran accountable for its actions in meaningful ways. Iran continues to engage in nefarious activities in our hemisphere, and we ignore this at our peril. Not renewing the red notices would mean that justice will be denied to the victims of the AMIA bombings and to their families. (Real Clear World)
The Nuclear Deal's Fatal Flaws: An Emboldened Iran and Diminished American Deterrence - Mark Dubowitz and Annie Fixler (Foundation for Defense of Democracies)
- Can't Have It Both Ways in Iran - Reuel Marc Gerecht and Ray Takeyh
Last summer, as the administration unveiled its nuclear agreement with Iran, Secretary of State John Kerry assured skeptics that the U.S. would sustain essential sanctions that punish Tehran for its aid to terrorists, regional aggression, and human rights abuses. But Washington can either accommodate or confront the clerical regime. It can't do both. And confrontation is made difficult, if not impossible, by the nuclear agreement and a war-weary public that is eager to be free of the Middle East.
In the year since the nuclear agreement was concluded, Tehran has continued its development of long-range ballistic missiles, a historic signpost of a state with atomic weapons ambitions.
The Gulf is simmering with Iranian intrigue. Tehran is busy fortifying Shia groups in Yemen and exploiting widespread anger against the Sunni princely class. Gulf Arab internal security services are probably not lying when they tell of increasing Iranian covert aid to violent radicals.
Accommodation with the Iranian regime isn't pretty. Morally and strategically, it diminishes, if not cripples, the U.S. in the Muslim world. Reuel Marc Gerecht is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Ray Takeyh is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. (Foreign Affairs)
- Treasury Designates Three Senior Al-Qaida Members Located in Iran
Today, the U.S. Department of the Treasury took action to disrupt the operations, fundraising, and support networks that help al-Qaida move money and operatives from South Asia and across the Middle East by imposing sanctions on three al-Qaida senior members located in Iran since 2014. Specifically, Treasury designated Faisal Jassim Mohammed Al-Amri Al-Khalidi (Al-Khalidi), Yisra Muhammad Ibrahim Bayumi (Bayumi), and Abu Bakr Muhammad Muhammad Ghumayn (Ghumayn) as Specially Designated Global Terrorists for acting for or on behalf of al-Qaida.
As a result of this designation, all property subject to U.S. jurisdiction in which these individuals have any interest is blocked, and U.S. persons are generally prohibited from engaging in any transactions with them.
"Today's action sanctions senior al-Qaida operatives responsible for moving money and weapons across the Middle East," said Adam J. Szubin, Acting Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence. "Treasury remains committed to targeting al-Qaida's terrorist activity and denying al-Qaida and its critical support networks access to the international financial system." (U.S. Treasury)
One Year after the Iran Nuclear Deal - Brig.-Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser
Iran took full advantage of the paralysis and failure of the West to block its policies so that it could pursue its ballistic missiles and nuclear weaponization programs - two programs aimed at gaining the ability to hit not only Israel but Europe too, with nuclear warheads towards the end of the deal duration (only 10-15 years from now).
The Iranians and the rest of the people living in the Middle East understand that the West is weak. The Iranians, like other Radical Islamists (and Russia) take advantage of that. They proceed with their plans to take over the Middle East from the Pragmatists and threaten Israel.
To avoid any confrontation, the West was ready to "kick the can down the road" while paving for the Mullahs a guaranteed way to their dreams - and which are our nightmares. (Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs)
Iran took full advantage of the paralysis and failure of the West to block its policies so that it could pursue its ballistic missiles and nuclear weaponization programs - two programs aimed at gaining the ability to hit not only Israel but Europe too, with nuclear warheads towards the end of the deal duration (only 10-15 years from now).
The Iranians and the rest of the people living in the Middle East understand that the West is weak. The Iranians, like other Radical Islamists (and Russia) take advantage of that. They proceed with their plans to take over the Middle East from the Pragmatists and threaten Israel.
To avoid any confrontation, the West was ready to "kick the can down the road" while paving for the Mullahs a guaranteed way to their dreams - and which are our nightmares. (Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs)
Tehran Teaches Its Children Hatred and Genocide - Editorial (Wall Street Journal)
- Every restriction on the Iranian mullahs' nuclear program expires in 15 years. So it's worth paying attention to what the next generation of Iranians is being taught about their country's mission in the world.
- Our best look so far comes thanks to a new report from Impact-se, a Jerusalem-based institute that monitors the content of textbooks across the Middle East.
- Regime leaders are presented as infallible, divinely inspired and beyond criticism.
- A third-grade religion textbook's section on cleanliness includes an illustration of Iranian children chasing away a filthy, mucus-like blob with a Star of David on its back. A fifth-grade text for the 2016-17 academic year shows Palestinian children attacking Israeli soldiers with rocks and slingshots. It's accompanied by regime founder Ayatollah Khomeini's portrait and his injunction that "Israel must be wiped out."
- Part of Mr. Obama's bet in signing the nuclear deal is that Iranian youth will be more moderate than the religious fundamentalists who now rule the country. This curriculum suggests that's not a bet he's likely to win.
Iran apparently detains another American
SAN DIEGO -- The U.S. State Department said Thursday that it is looking into reports another American has been detained in Iran.
State Department spokesman John Kirby would not comment further on the detention of Robin Shahini.
The girlfriend of the San Diego man said Shahini's sister told her Iranian authorities took him into custody July 11 while he was visiting family in his native Iran and he has not been heard from since.
SAN DIEGO -- The U.S. State Department said Thursday that it is looking into reports another American has been detained in Iran.
State Department spokesman John Kirby would not comment further on the detention of Robin Shahini.
The girlfriend of the San Diego man said Shahini's sister told her Iranian authorities took him into custody July 11 while he was visiting family in his native Iran and he has not been heard from since.
[h=1]AP Exclusive: Document Shows Less Limits on Iran Nuke Work[/h]
Key restrictions on Iran's nuclear program imposed under an internationally negotiated deal will start to ease years before the 15-year accord expires, advancing Tehran's ability to build a bomb even before the end of the pact, according to a document obtained Monday by The Associated Press.
^ Yes, forum dipshit guesser actually said this worthless deal prevented Iran from getting nuclear weapons. Idiot actually typed that.
Key restrictions on Iran's nuclear program imposed under an internationally negotiated deal will start to ease years before the 15-year accord expires, advancing Tehran's ability to build a bomb even before the end of the pact, according to a document obtained Monday by The Associated Press.
^ Yes, forum dipshit guesser actually said this worthless deal prevented Iran from getting nuclear weapons. Idiot actually typed that.
The Price of Powerlessness - Charles Krauthammer
Iran's intensely nationalistic revolutionary regime had never permitted foreign forces to operate from its soil. Until now. This week Russian bombers flew out of Iranian air bases to attack rebel positions in Syria. The reordering of the Middle East is proceeding apace. Where for 40 years the U.S.-Egypt alliance anchored the region, a Russia-Iran condominium is now dictating events.
That's what results from the nuclear deal with Iran. The nuclear deal was supposed to begin a rapprochement between Washington and Tehran. Instead, it has solidified a strategic-military alliance between Moscow and Tehran. (Washington Post)
Iran's intensely nationalistic revolutionary regime had never permitted foreign forces to operate from its soil. Until now. This week Russian bombers flew out of Iranian air bases to attack rebel positions in Syria. The reordering of the Middle East is proceeding apace. Where for 40 years the U.S.-Egypt alliance anchored the region, a Russia-Iran condominium is now dictating events.
That's what results from the nuclear deal with Iran. The nuclear deal was supposed to begin a rapprochement between Washington and Tehran. Instead, it has solidified a strategic-military alliance between Moscow and Tehran. (Washington Post)
- Why the Ayatollah Thinks He Won - Jay Solomon
The U.S. hoped that the nuclear deal would boost Iran's moderates, but after more than a year, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his allies seem to be the big winners. On Aug. 1, Khamenei said that Iran's experience with the nuclear deal "showed us that we cannot speak to [the Americans] on any matter like a trustworthy party," as many in the crowd chanted anti-U.S. slogans. But for all his complaints about American treachery, Khamenei recognizes that the nuclear deal has produced significant benefits that may serve to further entrench the regime.
As international sanctions against Iran have slackened, the ayatollah and his core allies have expanded the Iranian military and pursued new business opportunities for the companies and foundations that finance the regime's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. (Wall Street Journal)
- U.S. Signed Secret Document to Lift UN Sanctions on Iranian Banks - Jay Solomon and Carol E. Lee
The Obama administration agreed to back the lifting of UN sanctions on two Iranian state banks blacklisted for financing Iran's ballistic-missile program on the same day in January that Tehran released four American citizens from prison, according to U.S. officials. The UN sanctions on the banks weren't initially to be lifted until 2023 under the nuclear agreement between Iran and world powers.
The UN Security Council's delisting of Bank Sepah and Bank Sepah International was part of a package of tightly scripted agreements that included the transfer of $1.7 billion in cash to Iran, that were finalized between the U.S. and Iran on Jan. 17, the day the Americans were freed. (Wall Street Journal)
- Recognizing Iran as an Enemy - Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
In a speech on Sept. 18 to the Iran Revolutionary Guards Corps, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei declared that deterrence can only be achieved if fear of Iran's raw power is instilled in the hearts of her enemies. Khameini said there are misguided souls in Iran who seek to negotiate with the U.S. even as the Americans themselves seek a dialog with Iran on regional affairs (e.g., on Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen). He rejects this quest not only as poisonous for Iran, but as evidence that America is now a spent force.
There could be an opportunity here. Neither candidate for the U.S. presidency seems to have bought into the strange notion that Iran can serve as a useful counterweight to other forces in the region. Nor have they bought into the delusion that Iran's revolutionary impulse can be assumed to be benign. The U.S. is thus still able to think of Iran as an enemy, which it is. The writer is former deputy for foreign policy and international affairs at Israel's National Security Council. (Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies-Bar-Ilan University)
After Islamic State, Fears of a "Shiite Crescent" in Mideast - Yaroslav Trofimov
For Sunni Arab regimes anxious about Iran's regional ambitions, the Islamic State's firewall blocks territorial contiguity between Iran and its Arab proxies in Syria and Lebanon. Now, as Islamic State is losing more and more land to Iranian allies, these Sunni countries - particularly Saudi Arabia - face a potentially more dangerous challenge: a land corridor from Tehran to Beirut that would reinforce a more capable and no less implacable enemy.
Pro-Iranian Shiite militias such as Lebanon's Hizbullah and Iraq's Badr and Asaib Ahl al-Haq are filling the void left by Islamic State in Syria and Iraq, and they are much better equipped and trained. They are also hostile to the Saudi regime, talking about dismantling the kingdom and freeing Islam's holy places from the House of Saud. Abuses committed by Iranian proxies in Sunni areas are just as bad as those of Islamic State, argued Prince Turki al-Faisal, the former head of Saudi intelligence. Last month, Iraq expelled the Saudi ambassador over his criticism of the Shiite militias. (Wall Street Journal)
For Sunni Arab regimes anxious about Iran's regional ambitions, the Islamic State's firewall blocks territorial contiguity between Iran and its Arab proxies in Syria and Lebanon. Now, as Islamic State is losing more and more land to Iranian allies, these Sunni countries - particularly Saudi Arabia - face a potentially more dangerous challenge: a land corridor from Tehran to Beirut that would reinforce a more capable and no less implacable enemy.
Pro-Iranian Shiite militias such as Lebanon's Hizbullah and Iraq's Badr and Asaib Ahl al-Haq are filling the void left by Islamic State in Syria and Iraq, and they are much better equipped and trained. They are also hostile to the Saudi regime, talking about dismantling the kingdom and freeing Islam's holy places from the House of Saud. Abuses committed by Iranian proxies in Sunni areas are just as bad as those of Islamic State, argued Prince Turki al-Faisal, the former head of Saudi intelligence. Last month, Iraq expelled the Saudi ambassador over his criticism of the Shiite militias. (Wall Street Journal)
Why Iran Is More Dangerous than Islamic State - Moshe Ya'alon (Los Angeles Times)
- U.S. political leaders of both parties argue that destroying Islamic State is America's top priority in the Middle East. In reality, that's not nearly as important as confronting the challenge posed by Iran.
- The nuclear deal that went into effect a year ago may have postponed the danger of an Iranian nuclear bomb, but the multifaceted threat of a militaristic, messianic Iran - 80-million strong - is much more menacing to Western interests than the Sunni thugs and murderers of Raqqa and Mosul.
- From Tehran's perspective, it gained much more than it gave up. In exchange for postponing its military nuclear project, it achieved the lifting of many economic sanctions, an end to its political isolation, and the loosening of restrictions on its ballistic missile program.
- And out of the P5+1's exaggerated fear of taking any steps that might give the Iranians an excuse to scuttle the deal, Tehran won wide latitude to advance its influence throughout the region, as it no longer fears a U.S.-led "military option."
- Concerned nations need to work together now to prevent Iran from exploiting the nuclear deal to redraw the political map of the Middle East in its favor. Such steps would include ensuring strict inspection of Iran's nuclear facilities - and not just by the International Atomic Energy Agency. After all, the vast majority of Iran's nuclear violations were exposed by Western intelligence agencies, not the IAEA.
- It is not too late to repair the impression that the West views Iran as part of the solution to the problems of the Middle East, rather than the chief source of the region's instability and radicalism. Those who believed that the nuclear agreement would lead to a more moderate, open, reformist Iran, at home and abroad, regrettably suffer from wishful thinking.
Iran: We Can Mobilize 9 Million Fighters within 10 Days (MEMRI)
Mohsen Rafighdoost, who was minister of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) during the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War, said on Sept. 15 that today the IRGC ground forces are "five times better" than the U.S. Army, and that the Iranian regime is capable of deploying nine million troops against it in less than 10 days.
He added: "We have warehouses full [of missiles] in Tehran, Zanjan [in northwest Iran] and Oshnavieh [in northwest Iran] that can strike Tel Aviv."
Mohsen Rafighdoost, who was minister of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) during the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War, said on Sept. 15 that today the IRGC ground forces are "five times better" than the U.S. Army, and that the Iranian regime is capable of deploying nine million troops against it in less than 10 days.
He added: "We have warehouses full [of missiles] in Tehran, Zanjan [in northwest Iran] and Oshnavieh [in northwest Iran] that can strike Tel Aviv."
- Iranian Parliament Speaker Snubs German Minister on Visit - Gernot Heller
The speaker of the Iranian parliament, Ali Larijani, canceled talks with German Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel in Tehran on Tuesday after the visitor had urged Iran to pursue reforms at home and act responsibly in Syria. The snub to Gabriel highlighted the challenge facing Western governments as they try to cultivate ties with Iran's political leadership.
Gabriel was quoted as telling German news magazine Der Spiegel last week that Iran could have normal, friendly relations with Germany only when it accepted Israel's right to exist. Iran's government spokesman Mohammad Baqer Nobakht said on Tuesday: "No country can set preconditions for Iran. We live with our beliefs. Tehran will never recognize Israel." (Reuters)
