Intersting thoughts

[Bozzie]

September 29, 2021

Good morning. We hope you can join us next week for a DealBook Dialogue call on “Greening Crypto.” On Oct. 5 at 1 p.m. Eastern, the DealBook team will dive into crypto’s effect on the environment, how to measure its impact relative to its utility, and some of the unique technological innovations taking place in the industry to shift that balance. R.S.V.P. here.

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Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told Congress that the debt limit must be raised by Oct. 18.Stefani Reynolds for The New York Times

[h=2]Scenario planning[/h]

Yesterday’s market plunge seemed to suggest that investors, after months of ignoring the fight over raising the debt ceiling, were suddenly taking the once-unthinkable possibility of a U.S. debt default seriously. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned lawmakers at a Senate hearing of “catastrophic” consequences if they failed to suspend or raise the debt limit before the government hit it, which the Treasury estimated could come as soon as Oct. 18.

This isn’t the first time the government has flirted with the debt ceiling, an artificially imposed borrowing limit that Congress used to raise routinely, but that in recent years has become a partisan cudgel. Nor is it the most immediate economic threat coming out of Washington. A government shutdown, which could happen as early as Friday, would furlough federal workers and disrupt other government services.

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But a potential government debt default is what particularly worries market watchers. Here are two of the main scenarios being discussed on Wall Street as the debt ceiling closes in.

The “short-term panic” scenario. A brush with a ceiling-induced default in 2011, the first in a while, riled markets and led many to predict that the U.S.’s ability to borrow would be permanently affected: Standard & Poor’s downgraded the country’s credit rating for the first time in 70 years. (A decade later, interest rates are lower than ever.) Similarly, in 2013, during another debt-ceiling standoff, short-term government borrowing rates shot up, but quickly fell back to where they were before once the debt ceiling was raised. In both cases, the broader economy — jobs, house prices and the like — over time brushed off the temporarily higher borrowing costs.

Yellen’s “catastrophic” scenario. A prolonged standoff could result in something a lot worse than what happened in 2011 or 2013. The main problem: Treasuries are widely used as collateral to back up short-term loans. If the U.S. defaults on some of its bonds, lenders may be unwilling to accept those tainted securities as collateral. Worse, Wall Street’s trading systems have not really been set up to sort defaulted Treasuries from the rest, because few thought a U.S. default was possible. This could lead to a short-term lending market that grinds to a halt, like at the beginning of the financial crisis.

Investors appear to have regained a measure of confidence today, with stock futures up and bond yields falling. It could be a sign that investors are betting on the first scenario — yet another episode of debt-ceiling brinkmanship that is eventually resolved before things tip over the edge. What do you think? Let us know at dealbook@nytimes.com. Include your name and location and we may feature your response in a future newsletter.

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[h=3]HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING[/h]

United says its Covid vaccine mandate is working. More than 99 percent of the airline’s U.S.-based employees have met the firm’s vaccination requirement or have applied for a religious or medical exemption. In an internal memo, the airline also said that nearly 600 workers who haven’t yet complied with the policy could be fired.

Japan’s likely next prime minister is named. The country’s governing party selected Fumio Kishida as its choice for the next prime minister. The former foreign minister and moderate party stalwart has offered little to distinguish himself from the departing prime minister, Yoshihide Suga.

Senator Elizabeth Warren calls the Fed chair a “dangerous man.” The Democrat of Massachusetts said during Jay Powell’s appearance before the Senate Banking Committee that when his term as head of the central bank ends next year, she would not support his renomination. Warren and other progressives oppose reappointing Powell because of his track record on financial regulation. The White House hasn’t hinted what it will do when his term is up.

Mastercard gets into the buy-now, pay-later market. The card giant announced plans for new services in the industry that offer shoppers interest-free installment payments. The pay-later industry, which accounts for around a fifth of sales in Germany and in Sweden, accounts for only around 2 percent of sales in the U.S. but is expected to triple in the next three years.

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Ozy’s board begins an internal investigation. The digital media company has hired a law firm to investigate its “business activities” and requested that Samir Rao, its chief operating officer, take a leave of absence. A Times report this weekrevealed that Rao had impersonated a YouTube executive during a conference call with Goldman Sachs as Ozy tried to raise money from the bank.

[h=2]Warby Parker eyes its market debut[/h]

Warby Parker is set to go public today, in a direct listing that could value the trendy eyewear retailer at about $5 billion. Warby is one of a number of direct-to-consumer brands, like AllBirds and Fabletics, set to make market debuts in the coming months. The companies aim to take advantage of sky-high valuations for tech companies and strong interest in consumer names. DealBook spoke with Neil Blumenthal and Dave Gilboa, Warby’s co-founders and chief executives, about how the brand got here and what comes next.

On growth during a pandemic.

Warby’s sales grew 6 percent in 2020, beating rivals like the Ray-Ban parent EssilorLuxottica, which saw sales fall by double digits over the same period. Warby’s mix of online and in-store sales “enabled us to take market share, even during the year that we were hobbled,” Blumenthal said. But that came at a cost: The company’s marketing spend jumped to 19 percent of sales in 2020 from 13 percent the previous year.

On marrying a digital-first business with a growing offline retail presence.

Warby was one of the first brands born online that sought to combine the brand awareness that comes from stores with the reach of digital sales. (It was founded in 2010, opened its first dedicated store in 2013 and now has 145 retail outlets, with plans to open more.) Warby generated about two-thirds of its revenue in stores before the pandemic, but the mix of offline and online sales is now closer to 50-50 because of various restrictions. As for the ideal mix, the company is “channel agnostic,” Gilboa said.

On the flurry of direct-to-consumer brands going public.

“Clearly, a lot of companies that have raised money are looking to access a broader investor base,” Blumenthal said, seeking to distinguish Warby — whose direct listing won’t raise new funds — from others. So far this year, 12 internet retail companies have gone public, compared with nine last year, according to Renaissance Capital. Performance of these and related retail names have been mixed: Shares of Honest Company, Jessica Alba’s wellness brand, are down 53 percent since listing, while Figs, the upmarket scrubs company, is up 29 percent.

[h=2]Seen and heard[/h]

► “The term ‘paradigm shift’ is always overused, so people tend to ignore it. But that’s a good way of describing what’s happening right now.”

— Leland Miller, the head of the consulting firm China Beige Book, on how the struggles of the property developer Evergrande reveal “the beginning of the end of China’s growth model as we know it.”

► “I’m sorry to all my friends, but we’re not all going back.”

— Marc Benioff, the C.E.O. of Salesforce, on how many, if not most, of the company’s employees may continue working from home after the pandemic.

► “I had builders and developers explaining to me how it’s not possible to get concrete to do that, even as I walked them up to our 3-D-printed house. Now our biggest challenge is we’ve just got to make more printers.”

— Jason Ballard, the head of Icon, a construction technology company that has delivered more than two dozen 3-D-printed homes across the U.S. and Mexico.

[h=2]Ike Perlmutter’s Palm Beach justice[/h]

Isaac Perlmutter, the billionaire chairman of Marvel Entertainment, has been in an epic dispute with Harold Peerenboom, a neighbor in Palm Beach, Fla., for about a decade. It began with a disagreement over tennis courts and devolved into an eight-year libel case brought by Peerenboom against Perlmutter, claiming that the Marvel executive was behind a hate mail campaign against Peerenboom in retaliation. An envelope with traces of DNA from Mr. Perlmutter’s wife was cited as evidence linking the couple to the letters.

This week, a judge dismissed the lawsuit. The hate mail campaign turned out to be the work of a former employee of Peerenboom’s, according to the judge’s order. The DNA was apparently lifted at a deposition attended by the Perlmutters. “It was like an episode of ‘Curb Your Enthusiasm’ gone off the rails,” Josh Dubin, a lawyer for the Perlmutters, told DealBook. “But it’s a cautionary tale.”

The case is bigger than Palm Beach. Dubin, who runs a legal consulting firm and is an ambassador for the Innocence Project, a criminal justice initiative that works on clearing wrongful convictions, is steeped in the intricacies of DNA evidence. After his legal ordeal, Mr. Perlmutter became a criminal justice reform advocate, according to his lawyer. (In other legal news, House Democrats this week accused Mr. Perlmutter of breaking federal transparency laws.)

The fight isn’t over. The Perlmutters’ counterarguments against Peerenboom, claiming injury related to DNA theft, are proceeding. “This is a very wealthy white man who had the means to fight back,” Dubin said. Mr. Perlmutter has donated about $550,000 to criminal justice reform in the past 18 months, Dubin added. He and Dubin also met with former President Donald Trump to push for the pardon of Jawad Musa, whose sentence of life in prison for a nonviolent drug offense was commuted on Trump’s final day in office.

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[h=3]THE SPEED READ[/h]

Deals

Evergrande will sell its stake in a commercial bank for $1.5 billion as it tries to raise funds to service its $300 billion debt load. (WSJ) Bank mergers are on pace to hit their highest level since the 2008 financial crisis. (WSJ) A federal court is set to hear oral arguments today in the case of Citi trying to recoup a mistaken payment that hedge funds refused to return: Audio is available live here or in a file here after arguments conclude. (U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit)

Policy

More than 130 federal judges have broken the law by overseeing cases where they or their family had a financial interest. (WSJ) “How the Huawei Case Raised Fears of ‘Hostage Diplomacy’ by China.” (NYT) On regulating crypto, Elon Musk said governments should “do nothing.” (CNBC)

Best of the rest

Insider trading is everywhere. (Bloomberg Businessweek) A “fat finger” mistake saddled a crypto exchange with a $24 million fee on a $100,000 transaction. (Yahoo Finance) Dave Komansky, the former longtime chief executive of Merrill Lynch who led the bank’s growth and diversification, died this week at age 82. (NY Post)

Anna Schaverien contributed reporting.

Thanks for reading! We’ll see you tomorrow.

We’d like your feedback. Please email thoughts and suggestions to dealbook@nytimes.com.

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Andrew Ross Sorkin, Founder/Editor-at-Large, New York @andrewrsorkin

Jason Karaian, Editor, London @jkaraian

Sarah Kessler, Deputy Editor, Chicago @sarahfkessler

Stephen Gandel, News Editor, New York @stephengandel

Michael J. de la Merced, Reporter, London @m_delamerced

Lauren Hirsch, Reporter, New York @LaurenSHirsch

Ephrat Livni, Reporter, Washington D.C. @el72champs

 

[Bozzie]

Global Market Comments September 29, 2021 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (PLEASE SIGN UP NOW FOR MY FREE TEXT ALERT SERVICE NOW), (BIDDING MORE FOR THE STARS)

​ PLEASE Sign Up for My Free Text Alert Service Now!\Earlier this year, my customer support office spent the entire day taking calls from readers who missed my Trade Alert to buy the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) March 2019 $177-$180 in-the-money vertical BEAR PUT spread at $2.40 or best. A few days later, it became a $4,000 profit. The bond market completely fell apart afterwards, taking the spread up from $2.40 to $2.70 within minutes. And I should warn you, this kind of instant blowout result is not unusual at the Mad hedge Fund Trader, as long time followers of my service will tell you. Having Trade Alerts that move so fast into the money is a good problem to have. Subscribers to the Text Alert Service received messages on their cell phones within seconds worldwide, and thus were able to act immediately on my perfectly-timed Trade Alerts. Every time I see this happen, I am amazed that I lived this long to see this technology develop. It’s all really great…. when it works. This eliminates frustrating delays caused by traffic surges on the Internet itself, and by your local server. Because our email application, Aweber Solutions, is unable to invest fast enough to keep up with the growth of their own business we are encountering more frequent delays in our emails (see messages below). To sign up for the Trade Alert Service, please email Filomena at support@madhedgefundtrader.com. Time is of the essence in volatile markets. Individual traders need to grab every advantage they can. This is an important one. Please note that subscribers of the Newsletter-only service need not sign up for Text Alert. Good luck and good trading. ​ [h=2]Hook Me Up to John Thomas[/h]​ ​

​ Bidding More for the StarsThe stock market has turned into the real estate market, where everyone is afraid to sell for fear of being unable to find a replacement. Will it next turn into the Bitcoin market, which has gone ballistic? Risk assets everywhere are now facing a good news glut. My 2021 market top target of 40,000 for the Dow Average has come within range. This year’s price action really gives you the feeling of an approaching short-term blow-off market top. If Covid-19 crashed the market, will the vaccine boosters the recovery? A few years ago, I went to a charity fundraiser at San Francisco’s priciest jewelry store, Shreve & Co., where the well-heeled men bid for dates with the local high society beauties, dripping in diamonds and Channel No. 5. Amply fueled with Dom Perignon champagne, I jumped into a spirited bidding war over one of the Bay Area’s premier hotties, who shall remain nameless. Suffice to say, she is now married to a well-known tech titan and has a local sports stadium named after her. Obviously, I didn’t work hard enough. The bids soared to $33,000, $34,000, $35,000. After all, it was for a good cause. But when it hit $36,000, I suddenly developed a severe case of lockjaw. Later, the sheepish winner with a rampant case of buyer’s remorse came to me and offered his date back to me for $35,000. I said, “no thanks.” $34,000, $33,000, $32,000? I passed. The altitude of the stock market right now reminds me of that evening. If you rode the S&P 500 (SPX) from 700 to 4,50 and the Dow Average (INDU) from 7,000 to 35,000, why sweat trying to eke out a few more basis points. And if there was ever an excuse to take a break it is the blistering 18,000 point rally off the March 2020 bottom. I realize that many of you are not hedge fund managers and that running a prop desk, mutual fund, 401k, pension fund, or day trading account has its own demands. But let me quote what my favorite Chinese general, Deng Xiaoping, once told me in person: “There is a time to fish, and a time to hang your nets out to dry. You don’t have to chase every trade. At least then I’ll have plenty of dry powder for when the window of opportunity reopens for business. So, while I’m mending my nets, I’ll be building new lists of trades for you to strap on when the sun, moon, and stars align once again. ​ ​ ​ What Am I Bid?​ ​

Quote of the Day“In the next recession, the US will be the worst-performing stock market in the world. We won’t see new highs again in my lifetime,” said Doubleline Capital’s Jeffrey Gundlach. [FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] [/FONT]

This is not a solicitation to buy or sell securities The Mad Hedge Fund Trader is not an Investment advisor For full disclosures click here at: http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/disclosures The "Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader"(TM) and the "Mad Hedge Fund Trader" (TM) are protected by the United States Patent and Trademark Office The "Diary of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader" (C) is protected by the United States Copyright Office

​

 

[Bozzie]

Top News In need of direction Shutterstock​ U.S. stock futures turned higher overnight - Dow +0.6%, S&P 500 +0.8%, Nasdaq +1% - following heavy losses seen on Wall Street in the previous session. A spike in bond yields sent equities plunging, with the Nasdaq closing down nearly 3% for its worst day since March. Hardest hit were growth stocks - given their lower relative value of future earnings - as the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield touched a high of 1.567%. Facebook (FB), Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) all lost more than 3%, triggering a tech out that hit the broader markets. Bigger picture: Inflation and the prospect of higher interest rates are prompting investors to dump government bonds and reposition their stock portfolios. The Fed meeting last week indicated a willingness to respond to growing inflationary pressures by lifting borrowing costs as soon as next year, as well as tapering bond buying as soon as November. Combined with surging prices for oil and other commodities, the rhetoric was enough to send bond yields flying, with the 10-year Treasury climbing 20 basis points over the last week alone. "The interest rate induced selloff is a reminder of how impactful monetary stimulus has been with the Fed signaling a swift removal of the emergency stimulus measures is coming soon," noted Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist for Allianz Investment Management. "This is an uncomfortable period for market participants as the removal of Fed support will be underway soon and equity markets will have to learn how to stand on their own again. However, we should be reminded that it is unlikely the Fed would move forward with tapering bond purchases if they didn’t think the economy was ready." Fedspeak: More commentary on the economic landscape will come today as Fed Chair Jerome Powell participates in a policy panel discussion before virtual European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking at 11:45 a.m. ET. It won't be the only event to watch. Philly Fed President Patrick Harker, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and New York Fed President John Williams will give additional perspectives at a series of webinar discussions and virtual speeches throughout the day. (11 comments) Economy U.S. credit default? Inflation and tapering aren't the only forces spooking investors. Debt ceiling drama is intensifying in Washington ahead of a Thursday night deadline, with the risk of a partial shutdown starting Friday morning. Nearly two weeks later, on Oct. 18, the government will run out of money to meet its obligations to debtholders, according to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. A separate fight over a $1.2T infrastructure bill and a $3.5T reconciliation bill is also rattling parties and lawmakers, prompting President Biden to cancel a planned trip to Chicago today to save his economic agenda. Quote: "The only way Congress in this day and age ever gets anything done is by coming very close to deadlines," declared Capitol Hill strategist Jim Manley. "So far, we as a country have not suffered the economic consequences from such political gamesmanship, but at some point, somebody is going to make a mistake and something bad is going to happen to the country." The words couldn't ring truer at the current moment as corporate leaders start to sound the alarm over the rapidly approaching debt ceiling deadline. JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon said the lender has begun to prepare for the "potentially catastrophic event" of a U.S. credit default, while Morgan Stanley (MS) is planning for a similar scenario. The Business Roundtable, one of Washington's leading business lobby groups, meanwhile announced that a failure to raise the debt ceiling would pose an "unacceptable" risk to the U.S. economy. Analyst commentary: "Investors should note that there is no clear path to dealing with the debt ceiling," said Brian Gardner, a policy analyst at Stifel. "It could be a tense few weeks in Washington which could add to market volatility." (20 comments) Sponsored By Northern Trust Are You Making the Most of Low Interest Rates? Explore six facets of wealth planning – from estate planning to borrowing to investing, including opportunities for family offices, business owners and executives – that can be beneficial in a low, but eventually rising, interest rate environment. Learn More IPOs Warby Parker Investors today will be eyeing the public debut of Warby Parker (WRBY), which will hit the New York Stock Exchange via a direct listing (a cheaper, but less common way of going public). The company is known for its affordable eyeglasses, which start at $95 a pair, and are sold online and through its network of 145 stores. Last night, the NYSE assigned a reference price of $40 to Warby's 111.5M outstanding shares, giving it a valuation of around $4.6B (during its last fundraising round in August 2020 it was valued at $3B). Backdrop: Warby Parker was founded in 2010 by four friends at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School: Neil Blumenthal, David Gilboa, Andrew Hunt and Jeffrey Raider. The group desired to create high-quality, affordable glasses by adopting a direct-to-consumer process, while providing the flexibility of free home try-ons and returns. Warby also runs a philanthropic program through which it distributes glasses to someone in need for each pair of eyewear purchased by a customer. Blumenthal and Gilboa are now co-CEOs of the business, while Hunt and Raider remain as directors of the company. Warby Parker's growth has been financed by a total of $535.5M in venture capital raised in funding rounds from backers including D1 Capital Partners and T. Rowe Price (NASDAQ:TROW). While the company notched $393.7M in revenue during 2020 - up from $370.5M in 2019 - it posted a net loss of $55.9M, following a breakeven 2019 and a loss of $22.9M in 2018. Warby also had 2.08M active customers as of June 30, up from 1.81M in 2020 (the metric is defined as those who have purchased a pair of glasses in the last 12 months). Some of its publicly traded rivals include National Vision Holdings (NASDAQ:EYE) and France-based EssilorLuxottica (OTCPK:ESLOF), which have both seen share gains of around 50% over the past year. Outlook: Statistics from the Vision Council of America suggest that Warby Parker is operating in a growth market valued at $35B in the U.S. 75% of American adults use some type of vision correction, and of that number, 64% wear glasses. The eyewear industry is also pretty resilient to economic cycles due to its medical and nondiscretionary nature. However, some still say the company is overvalued despite its well-known brand and visibility, like SA author David Trainer. In an article entitled, See Through This Optical Illusion, he argues that Warby Parker operates in a highly fragmented market with many small private companies, as well as consumers that still favor in-store purchases. Tech Meet Astro Amazon's (AMZN) robot is here after all. Despite conventional wisdom that the announcement would wait a while, the tech giant unveiled its Astro home assistant - a sort of wheeled Echo device that can follow you around. The dog-like product, designed to appear animated and friendly, looks to bring together the company's strengths in robotics, artificial intelligence, home monitoring and cloud services. Is it worth $1,000? The robot can be integrated with Amazon's smart home security subsidiary Ring and patrol a user's home while they're away. It's also equipped with Alexa, the voice assistant that can set reminders, deliver entertainment and control smart home devices. Astro additionally sports a cup holder on its rear and a robot arm that can extend and look at things from up to four feet. Digital adopters concerned about privacy can be rest assured that Astro's camera, microphone and motion sensors can be switched off by pressing a button (or at least until the next scandal). Users can also pick "out of bounds zones," or certain rooms that are off-limits to the robot via mapping software. Other items announced at the hardware event: Amazon's first smart thermostat, the Echo Show 15, an Echo partnership with Disney (DIS) and a new Halo View fitness tracker. Amazon also unveiled Glow, an oddity of a chat/videoconferencing device with a built-in tabletop projector that can cast images of games, books or puzzles in a clear target for children. (23 comments) Today's Markets In Asia, Japan -2.1%. Hong Kong +0.7%. China -1.8%. India -0.4%. In Europe, at midday, London +0.9%. Paris +1.2%. Frankfurt +1%. Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.6%. S&P +0.8%. Nasdaq +1%. Crude -0.8% at $74.70. Gold +0.4% at $1745. Bitcoin +1.6%at $42406. Ten-year Treasury Yield -4 bps to 1.5% Today's Economic Calendar 7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications 9:00 Fed's Harker: Economic Outlook 10:00 Pending Home Sales 10:00 State Street Investor Confidence Index 10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories 11:00 Survey of Business Uncertainty 11:45 Jerome Powell Speech 1:00 PM Fed’s Daly Speech 2:00 PM Fed’s Bostic: “Inclusive Payments” 5:00 PM Fed’s Williams Speech Companies reporting earnings today »

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[CoachCB]

9.87 today....AVDL

https://www.tipranks.com/news/blurbs/avadel-pharmaceuticals-avdl-receives-a-buy-from-needham

I've been following it, doing well. I got out a while back, slightly ahead.

 

[Bozzie]

I've been following it, doing well. I got out a while back, slightly ahead.

16 days till the PDUFA...till will be a 17 dollar stock or a 3 dollar stock depending on the PDUFA.

 

[Bozzie]

September 30, 2021

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Nine in 10 of Tyson’s U.S. workers are now vaccinated.Michael Conroy/Associated Press

[h=2]Exclusive: Inside Tyson’s vaccine drive[/h]

On Aug. 3, Tyson Foods announced it would require coronavirus vaccines for all 120,000 of its employees in the U.S. The move was notable because it included the meat-processing firm’s frontline workers at a time when corporate mandates mostly applied only to office workers. DealBook spoke with Dr. Claudia Coplein, Tyson’s chief medical officer, about the results of its decision nearly two months later.

91 percent of Tyson’s U.S. work force is now fully vaccinated. When it announced the mandate “as a condition of employment,” less than half of its work force was inoculated. Tyson did not release vaccination by type of worker, but “certainly the vaccination rate amongst our frontline workers was lower than our office-based workers at the beginning of this,” Dr. Coplein said.

The United Food and Commercial Workers union, endorsed the mandate in return for more benefits, like paid sick leave. Frontline workers have until Nov. 1 to get vaccinated (or request an exemption), while the company’s roughly 6,000 office workers have until Oct. 1 to do so. Similar to the company overall, Tyson said that about 91 percent of its 31,000 unionized employees are now vaccinated. Unlike some other big companies, Tyson has not faced any lawsuits over its mandate.

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A poultry plant went to 100 percent vaccinated from 78 percent vaccinated after Covid hit close to home. A viral video about Caleb Reeves, a young Arkansas man who died of Covid, helped to highlight the risk of the virus to young people, “and we have many young frontline workers,” Dr. Coplein said. Reeves’s uncle worked at a Tyson plant, and the video “gave them a personal connection to say, ‘Hey, that could be my family, too,’” Dr. Coplein said.

Tyson executives have visited plants to have small group conversations about the vaccines. Some questions Dr. Coplein regularly hears are whether vaccination will affect fertility or pregnancy (the evidence suggests not). “The most powerful conversations have been when I sat down with somebody who was scared or emotional or otherwise hesitant to get the vaccine,” she said, “and they just really needed somebody to listen to them with empathy.”

Fortune 500 companies and the White House’s Covid task force have reached out to discuss Tyson’s experience, particularly after the White House asked OSHA to order large employers to make vaccination mandatory. (Tyson has lost a handful of employees over its mandate, though that number may increase as the deadline nears.) Tyson expects that when OSHA outlines more details and a timeline for mandates, which could take weeks, more companies will announce vaccine requirements. When that happens, the options will be limited for those who quit (or are let go) because of a mandate.

More vaccine news:

AT&T is extending its vaccine mandate to tens of thousands of unionized employees. YouTube banned all anti-vaccine misinformation, expanding restrictions previously limited to content about Covid vaccines. NBA players won’t be paid if they miss games because they can’t provide proof of vaccination in stadiums that require it.

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[h=3]HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING[/h]

Lawmakers scramble to avert a shutdown. Democrats are preparing legislation to avert a government shutdown at midnight tonight, perhaps by unlinking it from a measure to raise the debt ceiling. The fate of a $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill that was scheduled for a vote today remains unclear.

Facebook releases internal reports on the eve of congressional hearings. The two reports, both from 2019, provide more evidence that Facebook was aware of the effect of Instagram on young users’ mental health. The company annotated the reports to highlight limitations of the research. A Facebook executive will testify today at a Senate subcommittee hearing on “Protecting Kids Online.”

Citigroup presses judges to “rewind” a mistaken $504 million payment. In an appeals proceeding yesterday, Citi’s lawyer argued that the accidental early repayment of a loan for Revlon should have raised red flags among creditors, some of whom refused to return the funds (and won a judgment against Citi in an earlier case).

Macy’s is suing over an Amazon billboard. The department store hopes to block the e-commerce giant from advertising on a 2,200-square-foot displaynext door to its flagship store in Manhattan. Its lawsuit against the billboard’s owner said that the negative impact of allowing a “direct competitor” to take the spot would be “immeasurable.”

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Mary Barra is the new chair of the Business Roundtable. The General Motors chief will be the first woman to lead the influential lobbying group, which represents chief executives of major U.S. companies. She will succeed Doug McMillon, Walmart’s C.E.O.

[h=2]Everybody is talking about inflation[/h]

Prices have recently been rising faster than expected. A related phenomenon — executives mentioning “inflation” on calls with investors — has also been running hot.

Mentions of “inflation” on earnings calls are at their highest in more than a decade. FactSet said the term came up more than 220 times in second-quarter earnings calls at S&P 500 companies. The previous record was one quarter earlier, showing that the surge in prices isn’t a passing preoccupation.

This doesn’t appear to be a big problem for profits — yet. A few companies have recently trimmed their forecasts because inflation was eating into their margins, but earnings expectations on the whole for S&P 500 firms are higher today than they were in June, according to FactSet.

Sherwin-Williams cut its sales and earnings forecast this week, citing rising prices and shortages of raw materials. “We are increasing our full-year raw material inflation outlook to be up a high-teens percentage compared to last year,” John Morikis, the company’s C.E.O., told analysts. FedEx trimmed its full-year profit guidance last week, in part because of the “higher operating costs we are incurring,” said Mike Lenz, the company’s C.F.O. FedEx is raising many of its shipping rates by nearly 6 percent starting next year.

At General Mills, “ideally you’d not like to go back to retailers multiple times or consumers with price increases, but we’re clearly not in an ideal market,” said Jeff Harmening, the company’s C.E.O., adding, “People understand the need to revise plans.”

In the next few weeks, companies will start to report third-quarter results. Central bankers have said that supply disruptions could prolong a period of high inflation, so it’s a safe bet that the “i” word will remain a popular discussion topic.

In other inflation news, the discount retailer Dollar Tree said it would start selling more products above $1.

[h=2]“The allegations in The New York Times, which caught me by surprise, are serious and deeply troubling, and I had no choice but to end my relationship with the company.”[/h]

— Katty Kay, a former BBC anchor who had recently joined Ozy Media, in a statement announcing her resignation. The digital media company is under pressure on multiple fronts after The Times reported that an Ozy co-founder had apparently impersonated a YouTube executive on a conference call with Goldman Sachs. Ron Conway’s seed fund, SV Angel, said this week that it was giving up the shares it acquired in the company in 2012.

[h=2]Peering down the pipeline[/h]

The work of financial regulation may not seem personal, yet it determines who has access to economic opportunities. The fact that there have been very few Black economic policymakers appointed to top positions suggests to Chris Brummer of Georgetown Law that rules will continue to be devised without everyone’s interests in mind. The pipelines that lead to these jobs are also wanting.

“No one likes to go through these numbers,” Brummer said, “but the numbers tell a story. Not a very flattering one.” Last year, in a study of Black appointees at federal financial agencies, he found that only 10 of the 327 people appointed to regulatory positions were Black. To him, this suggested that a dearth of Black congressional staff members in early-career positions could help explain the lack of diversity at financial agencies.

The Biden administration has turned to universities for top nominees. So Brummer gathered data on corporate law professors at five top law schools — experts in antitrust, bankruptcy, corporations, securities and tax — and said the numbers were worse than he expected. Among his findings, at the top five schools — Columbia, Harvard, Stanford, Yale and the University of Chicago — 67 of 71 corporate law professors are white and four are Asian, while 62 of 71 are men.

If these numbers don’t improve, economic policy will fail the underrepresentedbecause policymakers lack important perspectives, he told DealBook: “Rules are designed with assumptions made about the people they are intended to protect and support.”

[h=2]Business schools chart a new course[/h]

Speaking of academia … amid the uncertainty created by the pandemic, business school professors are trying to prepare aspiring corporate leaders for a future that challenges the conventional wisdom about management and the very purpose of companies.

The Aspen Institute’s latest Ideas Worth Teaching awards named eight “especially bold” courses that pushed the “boundaries of what was previously thought possible,” the institute’s Jaime Bettcher told DealBook. These professors are “leveraging the moment” to chart a new path, she said, by integrating environmental, social and governance issues into more traditional B-school fare.

Click the links to see the syllabus and video clips of the winning courses:

Advancing Racial Equity at Work, Courtney McCluney, School of Industrial Labor Relations at Cornell University Beyond Diversity: The Fundamentals of Inclusive Leadership, Nicholas Pearce, Kellogg School of Management Big Data, Big Responsibilities: The Laws and Ethics of Business Analytics, Kevin Werbach, The Wharton School Finance for a Sustainable World, Swasti Gupta-Mukherjee, Quinlan School of Business at Loyola University Chicago Grand Challenges for Entrepreneurs, Emily Cox Pahnke, Foster School of Business at the University of Washington Relationships and Reconciliation in Business and Beyond, Lindsay Brant and Kate Rowbotham, Smith School of Business at Queen’s University Sustainable and Responsible Investing, Kingsley Fong and William Wu, U.N.S.W. Business School The History and Ethics of Capitalism, James Hoopes, Babson College

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[h=3]THE SPEED READ[/h]

Deals

China’s regulatory crackdown has chilled the market for new listings in Hong Kong. (FT) The investor Chamath Palihapitiya, a Tesla bull, sold all of his stock in the electric vehicle company to invest in other projects. (CNBC) Lordstown Motors, the embattled electric truck maker, is reportedly nearing a deal to sell its Ohio factory to Taiwan’s Foxconn. (Bloomberg) Global M.&A. in the third quarter, at more than $1.5 trillion, is set to break records. (Reuters)

Policy

Proposed regulation from the S.E.C. would require hedge funds and other investment firms to disclose how they voted on executive pay. (Insider) The F.A.A. completed its investigation of Virgin Galactic’s space flight in July, accepting the company’s proposals to change how it operates its missions. (WSJ) Carlyle and CalPRS announced an effort to standardize E.S.G. reporting. (Bloomberg)

Best of the rest

What’s behind the critical shortage of truck drivers in Britain. (NYT) Amazon settled with two former employees who said they were fired for speaking out about the company’s environmental impact and working conditions. (NYT) Crypto job listings are exploding. (Insider) “The Pandemic Made the Finance Industry’s Toughest Test Tougher.” (NYT)

Anna Schaverien contributed reporting.

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Stephen Gandel, News Editor, New York @stephengandel

Michael J. de la Merced, Reporter, London @m_delamerced

Lauren Hirsch, Reporter, New York @LaurenSHirsch

Ephrat Livni, Reporter, Washington D.C. @el72champs

 

[Bozzie]

Top News Supply crunch Shutterstock​ Things appear to be getting worse, not better, along the global supply chain, which was upended by the coronavirus pandemic over a year ago. That means entire companies and industries are going to have to deal with more extremes for the foreseeable future, making business investment a shaky decision that compounds the original problem. The volatility and uncertainty also destroy demand as prices become too high for consumers. The phenomenon, called the "bullwhip effect," could end up damaging the economy in the short-term, with violent swings in a range of goods. Warning bells: In an open letter to the United Nations General Assembly, business leaders from the International Chamber of Shipping, IATA and other transport groups (that account for more than $20T of annual global trade) sounded the alarm on the risks of a supply chain meltdown. "We are witnessing unprecedented disruptions and global delays and shortages on essential goods including electronics, food, fuel and medical supplies. Consumer demand is rising and the delays look set to worsen ahead of Christmas and continue into 2022. Our calls have been consistent and clear: freedom of movement for transport workers, for governments to use protocols that have been endorsed by international bodies for each sector and to prioritize transport workers for vaccinations... before global transport systems collapse." Some of the effects were on display this week as three more U.K. energy companies were pushed out of business by sky-high natural gas prices. China is also considering raising power prices for factories as an energy shortage there has unleashed turmoil in commodities markets and prompted silicon makers to dramatically slash production. Over in the U.S., the Commerce Department delayed a decision on solar tariffs with the price of panels set to rise, while Dollar Tree (NASDAQ:DLTR) said it would sell more items above $1 to offset cost increases on a range of goods. Do something! This time around, higher prices have put central banks between a rock and a hard place. Inflation is traditionally fought off by raising interest rates, but that might not be effective at the present given the supply chain issues taking place across the globe and the stage in the economic recovery. On the other hand, if easy monetary policy is left in place, price pressures could be compounded and result in a reduction in purchasing power or lead the economy to overheat. Tech Anti-vax content The biggest social networks banned misinformation about COVID-19 early on in the pandemic, but some are taking further steps to weed out related content. Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) banned misinformation on all vaccines in February, Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) followed in March, while YouTube (GOOG, GOOGL) is now removing content that falsely alleges approved jabs are dangerous and cause severe health effects. That means videos will now be blocked on claims made against shots for diseases like measles or chickenpox, or clips that assert they cause autism, infertility or cancer. Bigger picture: YouTube is going one step further by taking down the channels of high-profile anti-vaccine activists including Joseph Mercola and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who experts say are sowing skepticism that's contributed to slowing vaccination rates across the country. "Free speech is the essential core value of liberal democracy. All other rights and ideals rest upon it. There is no instance in history when censorship and secrecy have advanced either democracy or public health," Kennedy responded through a representative. YouTube didn't act sooner because it was focusing on misinformation specifically about coronavirus vaccines, said Matt Halprin, YouTube's vice president of global trust and safety. "Developing robust policies takes time... We wanted to launch a policy that is comprehensive, enforceable with consistency and adequately addresses the challenge." Exception to the rule: "Given the importance of public discussion and debate to the scientific process, we will continue to allow content about vaccine policies, new vaccine trials, and historical vaccine successes or failures on YouTube." Stocks Making sense of it all Continuing some strength seen in the previous session, U.S. stock index futures all climbed another 0.6% overnight following a major selloff seen earlier in the week. The Dow and S&P 500 finished Wednesday up 0.2%, while tech stocks and the Nasdaq closed lower, down 0.2%. Bonds and higher rates are also in the spotlight, with the 10-year Treasury yield pulling back 3 bps to 1.51% after touching an intraday high of 1.56% on Wednesday. Where do we go from here? "Some investors seem ready to move on from the 'there is no alternative' mind-set that has guided their decisions since the 2008 crisis, but TINA may be harder to quit than they think," writes the WSJ's Jon Sindreu. Others see pockets of alternative investments that provide a yield, or jumping into attractive individual stocks, with general market returns likely to be much more muted going forward. Looking for some new plays? Check out Seeking Alpha's Stock Ideas. Analyst commentary: "The froth has continued. Only time will tell how long that will go," said Mary Erdoes, JPMorgan Chase head of asset and wealth management. Since the response by central banks to the coronavirus pandemic, "markets are up 30% to 50%, clearly not normal. We're enjoying it, but this is not a normal time period." "If you own entire markets with the view that asset selection doesn't matter, that's great when the markets are going up," added Ashbel Williams, executive director and CIO of the Florida State Board of Administration. "But when things become really tough, and circumstances hit different industries and different companies in different ways... this is a time active management makes sense." Outlook Trillion-dollar coin The House on Wednesday passed a bill to suspend the U.S. debt ceiling, though the plan looks doomed in the Senate, with only hours to go before a partial shutdown of the federal government. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has also warned that on Oct. 18 the government will run out of money to meet its obligations to debtholders, setting up a drama-filled atmosphere on Capitol Hill. Congress has raised or suspended the ceiling 78 times since 1960, according to the Treasury, with the most recent motion taking place in 2019. Game of chicken: Democrats are struggling to get the votes needed in the Senate if they go at it alone since they need all 50 senators within their caucus. Friction among party members over the amount of spending, as well as whether to tie the procedure to infrastructure or social programs and climate policy is also creating some theatrics. For their part, Republicans want to tie the debt ceiling increase to Democrats' massive legislation, which would put a spotlight on the party if they can't get it together ahead of the 2022 midterm elections (or would take the blame if the U.S. defaults). "While I am hopeful that common ground can be found that would result in another historic investment in our nation, I cannot - and will not - support trillions in spending or an all or nothing approach that ignores the brutal fiscal reality our nation faces," critical centrist Sen. Joe Manchin (D., W. Va.) said in a statement. Has the U.S. ever defaulted? While the technicals are always debated, and some say the U.S. has never formally defaulted, there were some scenarios in the past that could resemble it. The first time was in 1790, when the U.S. defaulted on its external debt obligations, while during the Great Depression in 1933, America had another domestic debt default related to the repayment of gold-based obligations. Some consider President Nixon's refusal in 1971 to redeem dollars for gold to constitute a partial default, while the U.S. was said to default on some Treasury bills in 1979. Trillion-dollar coin: Echoing an idea that was originally floated during the debt ceiling crisis of 2011, there has been renewed talk in Washington of producing a very high-value currency to avoid the debt ceiling. Basically, the Treasury would mint a $1T platinum coin (under commemorative clauses), deposit it at the Federal Reserve, and the asset swap would result in an extra $1T to cover a big portion of Washington's bills. While not illegal, the accounting gimmick would be unprecedented, threaten the checks and balances of Congress and open a Pandora's box about all of public finance. Today's Markets In Asia, Japan -0.3%. Hong Kong -0.4%. China +0.9%. India -0.5%. In Europe, at midday, London +0.2%. Paris flat. Frankfurt -0.3%. Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.6%. S&P +0.6%. Nasdaq +0.6%. Crude -0.2% at $74.72. Gold +0.2% at $1725.40. Bitcoin +1.1% at $42937. Ten-year Treasury Yield -3 bps to 1.51% Today's Economic Calendar 8:30 GDP Q2 8:30 Initial Jobless Claims 8:30 Corporate profits 9:45 Chicago PMI 10:00 Fed's Williams: “Implications of Federal Reserve Actions in Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic” 10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory 11:00 Fed's Bostic: “Economic Mobility as a Tool for Sustainability” 11:30 Fed's Harker: "The Federal Reserve in Conversation: Developing Regulation, Sustainable Assets and Financial Markets" 12:30 PM Fed's Evans Speech 1:05 PM Fed's Bullard Speech 2:30 PM Fed's Daly Speech 3:00 PM Farm Prices 4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet Companies reporting earnings today » What else is happening... Warby Parker (NYSE:WRBY) pops following direct-listing IPO. Walmart (NYSE:WMT) to hire 150K associates for holiday season and beyond. Uber (NYSE:UBER) launches 'The Holiday Shop' for on-demand seasonal delivery. Virgin Galactic (NYSE:SPCE) takes off after FAA ends investigation. Altria (NYSE:MO) may strategically divest stake in AB InBev (NYSE:BUD). WSJ report finds Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) was targeting pre-teens for years. Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) analysts see early signs of strong iPhone 13 demand. Elon Musk slams Biden's EV policy, wants unregulated crypto. Regulation underway... Bitcoin (BTC-USD) faces biggest monthly decline since May. AstraZeneca's (NASDAQ:AZN) COVID-19 jab shows 74% efficacy in U.S. trial - Reuters

​

 

[Bozzie]

Global Market Comments September 30, 2021 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (WHAT TO BUY AT MARKET TOPS?), (CAT), ($COPPER), (FCX), (BHP), (RIO), (EUROPEAN STYLE HOMELAND SECURITY), (TESTIMONIAL)

​ What to Buy at Market Tops?I will start today’s letter by listing six more data points showing how overbought stocks have become. 1) While the number of outstanding shares in the US has remained unchanged since 2006, thanks to M&A, buybacks, bankruptcies, and privatizations, the average weighted share price has more than doubled from $50.15 to $137.00. 2) The Volatility Index (VIX) has just jumped from a recent high of $29 to $21 today. 3) The Mad Hedge Market Timing Index has just soared from a recent low of 19 eight months ago to 30 today, still in “BUY” territory. 4) 2022 forward stock earnings growth maintains at 20%. 5) Almost every investor is bullish once more, now that their stocks are going up. 6) The stock market has had its best 18 months in history. Grizzled, long in the tooth readers can’t be more cautious right now. This all leads to the urgent question of the day, WHICH stocks do you buy as we approach market tops? The answer is very simple. You buy cheap ones. And what are the cheapest stocks out there? Commodity stocks. My friend, Jim Umpleby, said that we are just entering a ten-year super cycle in commodities. Jim should know. He is the CEO of Caterpillar (CAT), a company I have been following for 45 years. I even have one of their cool worn yellow baseball caps from years past. Thanks to the 2017 tax bill, companies can now buy Caterpillar’s bulldozers, backhoes, and heavy trucks, and expense 100% of the investment in the first year. (Last year, I bought a new $162,500 Tesla Model X using the same break). That makes a purchase of (CAT)’s products one of the best tax breaks ever. Needless to say, this has created a stampede to buy the companies heavy machinery because they fear this tax windfall will be reversed by the next administration. This is equipment with a 30-year life or longer. Industrial commodities are in fact the perfect sector to buy right now. Take a look at the long-term chart for copper prices, which are a great bellwether for the entire industry. They are imminently poised to make a long-term upside breakout. Copper last peaked at the beginning of 2011, when the Chinese infrastructure build-out suddenly outdrew to a juddering halt. Prices cratered from $4.60 a pound to a lowly $1.90. Mines were sold off, mothballed, or permanently closed at a record rate. Copper prices fell so low that the US Mint finally started making a profit on pennies they struck. Then a funny thing happened. Copper will soon bottom, assisted by the global synchronized economic recovery I have been writing about for years. The recent collapse of the Chinese real estate market prompted by the China Evergrande Group will eventually give us a great entry point. The share prices of copper and other major commodity producers will go ballistic. Freeport McMoRan (FCX), the world’s largest copper producer, (whose management is a long-time reader of this letter) has just seen its stock jump ten-fold from a near $4.00 a share to $46.00. It is now back at $33.00. You may think that it’s too late to get into the commodities space, but you’d be wrong. Having covered the sector for nearly a half-century there is one thing you learn quickly. While you can shut down a mine in weeks, it can take years to bring them back on line. As for developing a new mine from scratch, that can take a decade by the time you get design, permits, infrastructure, equipment, and labor in place. My Australian readers tell me that (BHP) is flying young skilled workers from Brisbane an incredible 2,000 miles to work in Northwest mines in a six weeks on - six weeks off work schedule and paying them $200,000 a year to do it. And they’re making a profit doing this! The bottom line here is that a short squeeze has developed for industrial commodities which will last for years. Oh, and that global economic recovery? It is on vacation until delta ends. That could happen in a few months, and no more than a year. At least you have something to buy now besides more technology stocks. As much as we here at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader all love them for the long term, they are extremely overbought for the short term. Tech always comes back. ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ [h=2]Commodities Are In Our Blood[/h]​ ​

​ European Style Homeland Security I have just seen the movie “Dunkirk” for the second time, a film that is close to me because I knew several of the participants. A boat that made the crossing memorialized with a bronze plaque moored in the canal in front of my West London mansion for several years. I also recall a lunch I had with British comedian John Cleese many years ago (he is my height) soliciting an investment in my hedge fund. He kept his money, but I recall with great humor his version of homeland security. The English are feeling the pinch in relation to recent geopolitical events, and have therefore raised their security level from "Miffed" to "Peeved." Soon, security levels may be raised yet again to "Irritated" or even "A Bit Cross." The English have not been "A Bit Cross" since the blitz in 1940, when tea supplies nearly ran out. Terrorists have been re-categorized from "Tiresome" to "A Bloody Nuisance." The last time the British issued a "Bloody Nuisance" warning level was in 1588, when threatened by the Spanish Armada. The Scots have raised their threat level from "Pissed Off" to "Let's get the Bastards." They don't have any other levels. This is the reason they have been used on the front line of the British army for the last 300 years. The French government announced yesterday that it has raised its terror alert level from "Run" to "Hide." The only two higher levels in France are "Collaborate" and "Surrender." The rise was precipitated by a recent fire that destroyed France 's white flag factory, effectively paralyzing the country's military capability. Italy has increased the alert level from "Shout Loudly and Excitedly" to "Elaborate Military Posturing." Two more levels remain: "Ineffective Combat Operations" and "Change Sides." The Germans have increased their alert state from "Disdainful Arrogance" to "Dress in Uniform and Sing Marching Songs." They also have two higher levels: "Invade a Neighbor" and "Lose." Belgians, on the other hand, are all on holiday as usual; the only threat they are worried about is NATO pulling out of Brussels. The Spanish are all excited to see their new submarines ready to deploy. These beautifully designed subs have glass bottoms so the new Spanish navy can get a really good look at the old Spanish navy. Australia, meanwhile, has raised its security level from "No worries" to "She'll be alright, Mate." Two more escalation levels remain: "Crikey! I think we'll need to cancel the barbie this weekend!" and "The barbie is canceled." So far no situation has ever warranted use of the final escalation level. -- John Cleese - British writer, actor and tall person. ​ ​ ​

​ Testimonial Hey John and the MAD Team, here's an early Happy New Years! You really nailed and keep nailing great reversals and trends that are just beginning to deserve a watchful eye. I nailed it today, so far, just buying the JPY pairs, and shorting the big bond, this past couple weeks? I'm still a bit stuck on futures, but I realize the safety in your spreads is a lot smarter...Thx for all you know and for all you do. Rod, Alberta, Canada ​ ​

Quote of the Day “Fear of missing out is losing to fear of looking stupid,” said Roelof Botha, partner at venture capital firm Sequoia Capital.

​

 

[Bozzie]

Read in Browser

Top News Shutterstock​ Stocks rebounded Friday after a rough September, as investors took heart from a study showing Merck’s experimental Covid-19 pill cut in half the risk of hospitalization or death from the virus. Sectors that would expect to benefit most from a pickup in economic activity -- including energy, finance and industrials -- outperformed. The dollar fell and U.S. Treasuries rose, with the yield on the 10-year note slipping back below 1.5% even after government data for August showed the highest rate of core inflation since 1991. Friday's stock market bounce came after the major indexes suffered their worst month of the year in September amid rising fears of inflation, slowing growth and rising rates. The Dow Jones was down 4.3%, the S&P 500 fell 4.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite was off 5.3% Central Banking Fed musical chairs Two regional Federal Reserve bank presidents, Dallas' Robert Kaplan and Boston's Eric Rosengren, announced they would leave their positions early in the wake of a controversy over their portfolio holdings. Kaplan traded millions of dollars in securities last year, including individual high-valuation megacap stocks that benefit from lower interest rates, while Rosengren came under scrutiny for securities tied to real estate and securities bought by the central bank. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jay Powell opened an ethics panel over the issue and said at a recent press conference changes to current rules must happen. What it means: While a rare occurrence, the loss of two regional presidents underscores the dangers of a market trading as though the Fed is a static entity represented by its Summary of Economic Projections rather than a fluid group where minds can change quickly. Along with the plan for asset tapering, the focus of the last FOMC was on the dot plot of rate forecasts that moved market expectations forward to an initial hike in 2022. Now two of those dots are going away. Rosengren and Kaplan are both in the hawkish camp, with Kaplan considered one of most hawkish voices for the Fed in calling for removal of accommodation. Two dovish replacements could quickly shift the dots back to liftoff in 2023. Go deeper: When it comes to FOMC voting on rates, the rotation was set to bring in three hawkish regional presidents next year: Rosengren, St. Louis' James Bullard, Kansas City's Esther George, as well as hawkish-leaning Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester. There could be further shifts in the Fed makeup and Powell's renomination is also not secured. While it looks like the continuity would please the markets, President Biden could ensure more dovish leadership with Lael Brainard. (29 comments) Sponsored By VantagePoint Get Started on Faster, Smarter Trading Today Are you tired of guessing when the “perfect” moment is to enter or exit your trades? Especially in a sideways market. There’s a much simpler way to find out what’s coming next and how to play it. A way to read the technical indicators that are doing all the hard research for you… See how it works right here.​ (You should set aside about an hour for this free demonstration, an investment that will save you weeks of time in the long run on your trading decisions.) If over 35,000 independent traders, just like you, have already used this method, then it can work for you too. Simply click the link above to learn more. IPOs Nice frames Warby Parker (WRBY) popped 36% in its public debut on Wednesday, but lost some ground the rest of the week, after hitting the New York Stock Exchange via a direct listing (a cheaper, but less common way of going public). The company is known for its affordable eyeglasses, which start at $95 a pair, and are sold online and through its network of 145 stores. The NYSE initially assigned a reference price of $40 to Warby's 111.5M outstanding shares, giving it a valuation of around $4.6B (during its last fundraising round in August 2020 it was valued at $3B). Backdrop: Warby Parker was founded in 2010 by four friends at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School: Neil Blumenthal, David Gilboa, Andrew Hunt and Jeffrey Raider. The group desired to create high-quality, affordable glasses by adopting a direct-to-consumer process, while providing the flexibility of free home try-ons and returns. Warby also runs a philanthropic program through which it distributes glasses to someone in need for each pair of eyewear purchased by a customer. Blumenthal and Gilboa are now co-CEOs of the business, while Hunt and Raider remain as directors of the company. Warby Parker's growth has been financed by a total of $535.5M in venture capital raised in funding rounds from backers including D1 Capital Partners and T. Rowe Price (NASDAQ:TROW). While the company notched $393.7M in revenue during 2020 - up from $370.5M in 2019 - it posted a net loss of $55.9M, following a breakeven 2019 and a loss of $22.9M in 2018. Warby also had 2.08M active customers as of June 30, up from 1.81M in 2020 (the metric is defined as those who have purchased a pair of glasses in the last 12 months). Some of its publicly traded rivals include National Vision Holdings (NASDAQ:EYE) and France-based EssilorLuxottica (OTCPK:ESLOF), which have both seen share gains of around 50% over the past year. Outlook: Statistics from the Vision Council of America suggest that Warby Parker is operating in a growth market valued at $35B in the U.S. 75% of American adults use some type of vision correction, and of that number, 64% wear glasses. The eyewear industry is also pretty resilient to economic cycles due to its medical and nondiscretionary nature. However, some still say the company is overvalued despite its well-known brand and visibility, like SA author David Trainer. In an article entitled, See Through This Optical Illusion, he argues that Warby Parker operates in a highly fragmented market with many small private companies, as well as consumers that still favor in-store purchases. (7 comments) Economy Supply crunch Things appear to be getting worse, not better, along the global supply chain, which was upended by the coronavirus pandemic over a year ago. That means entire companies and industries are going to have to deal with more extremes for the foreseeable future, making business investment a shaky decision that compounds the original problem. The volatility and uncertainty also destroy demand as prices become too high for consumers. The phenomenon, called the "bullwhip effect," could end up damaging the economy in the short-term, with violent swings in a range of goods. Warning bells: In an open letter to the United Nations General Assembly, business leaders from the International Chamber of Shipping, IATA and other transport groups (that account for more than $20T of annual global trade) sounded the alarm on the risks of a supply chain meltdown. "We are witnessing unprecedented disruptions and global delays and shortages on essential goods including electronics, food, fuel and medical supplies. Consumer demand is rising and the delays look set to worsen ahead of Christmas and continue into 2022. Our calls have been consistent and clear: freedom of movement for transport workers, for governments to use protocols that have been endorsed by international bodies for each sector and to prioritize transport workers for vaccinations... before global transport systems collapse." Some of the effects were on display this week as three more U.K. energy companies were pushed out of business by sky-high natural gas prices. China is also considering raising power prices for factories as an energy shortage there has unleashed turmoil in commodities markets and prompted silicon makers to dramatically slash production. Over in the U.S., the Commerce Department delayed a decision on solar tariffs with the price of panels set to rise, while Dollar Tree (NASDAQ:DLTR) said it would sell more items above $1 to offset cost increases on a range of goods. Do something! This time around, higher prices have put central banks between a rock and a hard place. Inflation is traditionally fought off by raising interest rates, but that might not be effective at the present given the supply chain issues taking place across the globe and the stage in the economic recovery. On the other hand, if easy monetary policy is left in place, price pressures could be compounded and result in a reduction in purchasing power or lead the economy to overheat. (295 comments) Tech Facebook grilling During a three-hour Senate hearing on Thursday, Facebook (FB) came under fire from lawmakers who were upset about the revelations brought to light by The Wall Street Journal's "Facebook Files." Internal documents showed that Instagram makes body image issues worse for a substantial minority of teen girls and was blamed for increases in anxiety and depression. With the company on the defensive (and minimizing its own research), it looks to be signaling new enthusiasm among Senators for regulatory proposals that had stagnated a bit. Criticism from both sides of the aisle: "We now have deep insight into Facebook's relentless campaign to recruit and exploit young users. And we now know it is indefensibly delinquent in acting to protect them," said Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT). "Facebook is incapable of holding itself accountable." Senator Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) was also quick to admonish the tech giant. "We do not trust you with influencing our children." Some, like Sen. Ed Markey (D-MA), even compared the social network to Big Tobacco, which "pushes a product that they know is harmful to the health of young people." He also announced plans to reintroduce legislation that would regulate a number of features, including follower counts, autoplay videos, and marketer and influencer promotions on apps aimed at young children. Go deeper: Facebook on Monday said it would pause work on a controversial effort to build an Instagram for those under 13 (currently prohibited from joining the service). During the hearing, however, Antigone Davis, Facebook director of global safety, was noncommittal about whether the company would shelve Instagram Kids for good. "Sen. Markey, those are the kinds of features that we will be talking about with our experts trying to understand in fact what is most age appropriate and what isn’t age appropriate, and we will discuss those features with them of course." (56 comments) Explainer Funding, infrastructure and debt Keeping track of the latest happenings on Capitol Hill can get confusing, especially when deadlines are as close together as they are in the fall of 2021. While it's still too early to tell how things will play out, investors have been monitoring the events as lawmakers play politics with the nation's pocketbook. Here are the three big items that are on the radar and how they could impact your portfolio: Government funding - Late on Thursday night, Congress passed stopgap spending legislation to avert a U.S. government shutdown, which was later signed by President Biden. The bill will keep the lights on at federal agencies through Dec. 3, giving Congress nine more weeks to pass a full budget plan. Buzz surrounding government shutdowns can trigger some market volatility, but this is the least likely event to affect investor holdings. Infrastructure - House Speaker Nancy Pelosi promised to move ahead with a vote on a $1.2T bipartisan infrastructure bill before Democrat progressives said they have the numbers to stall it. They want the Senate to agree to a separate $3.5T social spending and climate policy package (or what the White House terms "human infrastructure") before pressing ahead on this front. Negotiations are still ongoing, but the developments have the potential to dent some sentiment in the market, especially infrastructure-related names, since the bill was a key part of Biden's economic agenda. At the very end of the week, Biden went to the Capitol for a half-hour meeting with Democrats which ended with no clear agreement, although he promised that they're going to get it done. Debt ceiling - Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has said the U.S. will run out of funds to pay its bills by mid-October and even called on Congress yesterday to eliminate the mechanism entirely. A default would "likely precipitate a historic financial crisis that would compound the damage of the continuing public health emergency," according to Yellen. It could also "trigger a spike in interest rates, a steep drop in stock prices and other financial turmoil. Our current economic recovery would reverse into recession, with billions of dollars of growth and millions of jobs lost." On Friday, Fitch Ratings warned that the debt ceiling fight could force the firm to downgrade the AAA credit rating of the U.S.(47 comments) ​ U.S. Indices Dow -1.4% to 34,326. S&P 500 -2.2% to 4,357. Nasdaq -3.2% to 14,567. Russell 2000 -0.3% to 2,242. CBOE Volatility Index +19.2% to 21.15. S&P 500 Sectors Consumer Staples -2.6%. Utilities -2.%. Financials -0.3%. Telecom -1.8%. Healthcare -3.5%. Industrials -1.7%. Information Technology -3.3%. Materials -0.9%. Energy +5.8%. Consumer Discretionary -2.4%. World Indices London -0.4% to 7,027. France -1.8% to 6,518. Germany -2.4% to 15,156. Japan -4.9% to 28,771. China -1.2% to 3,568. Hong Kong +1.6% to 24,576. India -2.1% to 58,766. Commodities and Bonds Crude Oil WTI +2.4% to $75.72/bbl. Gold +0.5% to $1,761.2/oz. Natural Gas +7.9% to 5.547. Ten-Year Treasury Yield +0.1% to 132.2. Forex and Cryptos EUR/USD -1.03%. USD/JPY +0.32%. GBP/USD -0.99%. Bitcoin +11.8%. Litecoin +10.5%. Ethereum +12.7%. Ripple +8.8%. Top Stock Gainers Paltalk Inc (NASDAQ:PALT) +151%. Grom Social Enterprises Inc (NASDAQ:GROM) +69%. Camber Energy Inc (NYSE:CEI) +59%. Pedevco Corp (NYSE:PED) +52%. Gogo Inc (NASDAQ:GOGO) +51%. Top Stock Losers Elite Education Group International Ltd (NASDAQ:EEIQ)-56%. Spire Global Inc (NYSE:SPIR) -49%. Omeros Corp (NASDAQ:OMER) -46%. Ensysce Biosciences Inc (NASDAQ:ENSC) -36%. Adagio Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:ADGI) -36%. Where will the markets be headed next week? Current trends and ideas? Add your thoughts to the comments section. Seeking Alpha’s Wall Street Breakfast Podcast Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Breakfast podcast brings you all the news you need to know for your market day. Released by 8:00 AM ET each morning, it is a quick listen that you can put on as you get ready to start your working day.​

​

 

[Bozzie]

Picks...8-4 on the season / week 4
straght bets and 4 team parlay.

Seattle+3
giants+7
tampa -7
miami -2

 

[CoachCB]

I went to the UF/Kentucky game last night....UF's first loss in Lexington since 1986. Good crowd, still had a good time. I'm 0-2 at Gator games this year...smh

 

[Bozzie]

I went to the UF/Kentucky game last night....UF's first loss in Lexington since 1986. Good crowd, still had a good time. I'm 0-2 at Gator games this year...smh

NFL 2-2 again....

Nice..You're enjoying Florida sounds like CB..going to Naples sometime this winter.

We're about done with the first phase of the Farm house and will move in while the other place is being remodeled..It's been a crazy few weeks with a couple more coming..

AVDL 10 and change today.

Top News Facebook under fire Shutterstock​ The pressure on Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) is not letting up following a three-hour Senate hearing last week in which lawmakers grilled the social media giant over its harmful effects on young people. Over the weekend, a Facebook whistleblower named Frances Haugen, who leaked the docs for the WSJ's "Facebook Files," accused the company of repeatedly prioritizing profit over clamping down on hate speech and misinformation. Her lawyers have already filed at least eight complaints with the SEC, according to the interview on CBS's 60 Minutes. Quote: "The thing I saw at Facebook over and over again was there were conflicts of interest between what was good for the public and what was good for Facebook," said Haugen, who worked as a product manager on the civic misinformation team. "Facebook, over and over again, chose to optimize for its own interests, like making more money. It is subsidizing, it is paying for its profits with our safety." Haugen even went as far as to suggest the moneymaking moves contributed to the deadly Jan. 6 storming of the U.S. Capitol (after the company prematurely disbanded its Civic Integrity team designed to thwart misinformation). She'll also testify before a Senate subcommittee tomorrow in a hearing titled "Protecting Kids Online" and hopes her statements will result in "regulation being put into place." Facebook's annual revenue has more than doubled from the $56B seen in 2018, when a newsfeed content flow change went into effect. The new algorithm has fostered discord, according to Haugen, while contributing to more divisiveness on a network meant to bring people together. Response from Facebook: "Every day our teams have to balance protecting the ability of billions of people to express themselves openly with the need to keep our platform a safe and positive place," Facebook spokesperson Lena Pietsch said in a statement. "We continue to make significant improvements to tackle the spread of misinformation and harmful content. To suggest we encourage bad content and do nothing is just not true." (18 comments) Stocks Market on edge Get ready for a volatile October... The month, traditionally known for its ups and downs, didn't disappoint traders overnight. S&P 500 futures opened the session solidly in the green on Sunday evening, only to fall 0.7%, before heading back to the flatline. Contracts linked to the DJIA moved in line with the benchmark index, while the Nasdaq saw even steeper price swings. While the main focus this week will be ADP's September employment report and the non-farm payrolls report for last month, investors are also sizing up what kind of returns could be in store for the rest of the quarter: The bulls: "Q4 2021 will likely record a higher-than-average return," noted CFRA chief investment strategist Sam Stovall. "However, investors will need to hang on tight during the typically tumultuous ride in October, which saw 36% higher volatility when compared with the average for the other 11 months." The bears: "We're headed for some trouble ahead," declared Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel, who's known for his positive market forecasts. "Inflation, in general, is going to be a much bigger problem than the Fed believes. I do not believe that the market is prepared for an accelerated taper." Macro front: Echoes of the trade war were heard overnight as U.S. trade representative Katherine Tai vowed to enforce Phase 1 of the trade deal with China. Under the pact, Beijing pledged to buy at least $200B more U.S. goods and services over 2020 and 2021, compared to 2017, though as of August, China had only reached 62% of that target, based on export data compiled by the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Tai also said there were "serious concerns" about the country's "state-centered and non-market trade practices" - which were not addressed under the current framework - but would "raise these broader policy concerns with Beijing." (2 comments) Sponsored By StartEngine Invest In The Future Of Equity Crowdfunding With a goal to help raise $10 billion by 2029, StartEngine has big plans... and they’re already gaining momentum: 146% revenue growth YoY in the first half of 2021. 500,000 prospective investors on the platform Led by Howard Marks, co-founder of Activision(NASDAQ:ATVI). Launched a first-of-its-kind trading platform $400M raised for more than 500 companies. Moving into wine collections, real estate, and more Now you can join 22,000 other investors and invest in StartEngine itself. Check it out here for more information. Disclaimer:Reg A+ offering made available through StartEngine Crowdfunding, Inc. Investment is speculative, illiquid, and involves a high degree of risk, including the possible loss of your entire investment. View StartEngine Crowdfunding, Inc’s offering circular and selected risks. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Covid Vaccine updates BioNTech (BNTX) CEO Ugur Sahin, whose company developed one of the first COVID-19 vaccines along with Pfizer (PFE), predicts that a new formula may be needed next year to protect against future virus mutations. While current variants, particularly the Delta strain, are leading to a surge in breakthrough cases, he said they're not different enough to undermine the effectiveness of current jabs. That could change, though, and the company is planning accordingly. Thought bubble: One of the biggest differences between the flu vaccine and many other vaccines is that the flu evolves much quicker than viruses like polio and measles. If someone was vaccinated as a child against the latter diseases, it's extremely likely their body will recognize the disease at a much later date. While the scientific evidence is still pouring in on coronavirus, it may be closer to the flu in terms of its adaptability. "I think this virus is here to stay with us and it will evolve like influenza pandemic viruses," said Dr. Mike Ryan, executive director of the World Health Organization's Health Emergencies Program. Sahin also made some other predictions. He sees two main streams of vaccination programs in 2022, including booster shots for those who have been vaccinated, as well as a continued push to vaccinate people who have had minimal access to them. Last month, the U.S. announced it would buy another 500M doses of the BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine at not-for-profit rates to give to lower-income countries. Shares of BNTX have surged more than 200% YTD amid vaccine developments, booster shots and FDA authorization, while PFE has gained around 17%. Go deeper: Vaccine makers are on the backfoot again this morning after Merck & Co. (MRK) dropped a bomb in the global fight against COVID-19 on Friday. Results from Merck's experimental pill cut the risk of hospitalization and death from COVID in half, and were so encouraging that it stopped enrolling patients to begin the process of regulatory approval. The pill, which is most effective when given early in course of infection, is also said to work against all COVID variants including Delta. (13 comments) Energy More oil to market? An energy supply crunch that has led to gas lines in the U.K.and China to secure supplies "at all cost" is prompting investors to closely watch the sector. The latest headlines could come today as OPEC+ holds a virtual meeting to review its output policy. In July, the group led by Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to boost monthly output by 400K barrels per day until at least April 2022, phasing out 5.8M bpd in cuts. Chatter before the gathering: OPEC+ may consider going beyond its existing deal to boost production by another 400K barrels per day. There are even suggestions for an increase of 800K bpd for one month, with zero the next month, while other delegates feel there is currently no need to take extraordinary measures. The nearest month any increase could occur is November since OPEC+'s last meeting decided the October volumes. "Obviously, the price of oil is of concern," White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said this past Thursday, adding that the U.S. was talking to OPEC and looking at every tool to address its cost. Some see the request as hypocritical, as the country discourages drilling at home in its fight against climate change, while others see it as a stopgap measure until the U.S. transitions away from fossil fuels toward cleaner energy sources. President Biden has set a goal to decarbonize the economy by 2050 and has paused new drilling lease auctions on federal lands pending a review of environmental and climate impacts. Elsewhere: One of the largest oil spills in recent Southern California history occurred over the weekend, with at least 126,000 gallons of oil leaking into the waters off Orange County. Local officials are calling it an environmental catastrophe as black globules along with dead birds and fish wash ashore. The spill was caused by a breach connected to the Elly oil rig, which was operated by a California subsidiary of Houston-based Amplify Energy Corporation (AMPY). (13 comments) Today's Markets In Asia, Japan -1.1%. Hong Kong -2.2%. China closed. India +0.9%. In Europe, at midday, London +0.2%. Paris +0.1%. Frankfurt -0.1%. Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.3%. S&P -0.4%. Nasdaq -0.5%. Crude +0.1% at $75.94. Gold -0.5% at $1749.30. Bitcoin -0.5% at $47598. Ten-year Treasury Yield +3 bps to 1.49% Today's Economic Calendar Auto Sales 10:00 Factory Orders 10:00 Fed's Bullard: “Mastering the Economic Revival” 10:00 Fed's Rosengren: “Racial Disparities in Today's Economy” 12:30 PM Investor Movement Index Companies reporting earnings today » ​ What else is happening... California to require COVID-19 vaccines for school kids. Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) shot linked to higher rates of heart inflammation. Global Market Comments October 4, 2021 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE MAD HEDGE SUMMIT VIDEOS ARE UP), (MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or IT’S SHOPPING TIME), (MS), (GS), (JPM), (BLK), (BRKB), (C), (TLT), (F), (CRPT) ​ The Mad Hedge Summit Videos are UpThe Mad Hedge Summit videos are up from the September 14-16 confab. Listen to 27 speakers opine on the best strategies, tactics, and instruments to use in these volatile markets. It is a true smorgasbord of investment strategies. Find the best one to suit your own goals. The product discounts offered last week are still valid. Start, stop, and pause the videos at your leisure. Best of all, access to the videos is FREE. Access them all by clicking here at www.madhedge.com, click on SEPTEMBER 14-16, 2021 REPLAYS in the upper right-hand corner, and then chose the speaker of your choice. ​ ​ ​ ​ The Market Outlook for the Week Ahead, or It’s Shopping TimeAll indications are that we have a total nightmare of a Christmas coming up this year. Santa Claus and his elves can’t get any parts, and the reindeer are short of hay. There are now a record 70 large container ships from China parked off the coast of Long Beach, CA and nobody to unload them. If they could be unloaded, there are no trucks to move the cargo or drivers to drive them. It turns out that stores don’t have enough staff to sell the products either. You see this in share prices that are traditionally strong going into the holidays which have lately taken a pasting, like UPS (UPS) and FedEx (FDX). Perhaps the US economy is losing up to a third of its total output due to parts and labor shortages. This will take at least a year to sort out. Then there is the issue of 10 million missing workers. Are they afraid of dying of Covid? Or have they decided it’s time for a career change and that working for a minimum wage of $7.25 an hour is no longer worth it? This may take a decade to sort out. Covid could be masking fundamental changes to the American economy and society which won’t become obvious until well into the 2030s. Those of us who analyze these things can’t wait for the outcome. The global economy has just undergone more change than at any time since WWII. But what exactly happened we may not know for years. Better to complete your Christmas shopping early this year or you may end up with a piece of coal in your stocking (where do I find coal in California?). And don’t forget to do some shopping for your retirement portfolio as well. Valuations are the best they have been in a year and this bull market in stocks has another nine years to run. In the meantime, after dumping all of my technology stocks, I’ll be betting my entire persona net worth buying financial ones. These should lead the markets for the next six months, or until bond yields hit 2.0%, whichever comes first. Bonds now yield 1.46%. With interest rates rising sharply, economic growth continuing at record levels, and default rates plunging, we are just entering a new golden age of banking. Powell sees Inflation lasting higher for longer. It was enough to kill off a nascent rally in the bond market. The Dollar Store is about to become the $2 Store. Shortages from China are the reason. Treasury Yields hit a three-month high. You can blame the coming taper, deal on a deficit-financed infrastructure bill, and drained Fed accounts against a coming massive supply of bonds. I’m already running a massive bond short. Keep selling rallies in the (TLT), or buy (TBT). China bans Crypto, triggering a 7% plunge in Bitcoin. Financial systems the government can’t control are forbidden in the Forbidden City. It’s all part of a flight out of a restricted Yuan into unrestricted crypto by wealthy Chinese. China used to account for 99% of all Bitcoin mining and now it is at zero. The business will flock to the US, Canada, and any other country with cheap electricity. It’s a short-term negative for crypto but a long-term positive. Buy Bitcoin and Ethereum on the dip. Case Shiller shatters all records, rising an astronomical 18.7% in June, a new record. Home prices are now 41% higher than the last peak in 2006. Phoenix was up an eye-popping 29.3%, San Diego by 27.1%, and Seattle by 25.0%. What are they putting in the water in these cities? My belief is that the structural shortfall of housing continues for another decade. New Home Sales jump by 1.5% in August to a seasonally adjusted 740,000 units. The south saw the biggest gains at 6.0%. Median New Home Prices jumped an amazing 20.1% to 390,000 YOY. The exodus from the city to the burbs continues unabated. Inventory is at 6.1 months. Pending Home Sales rocket, in August by 8.1% on a signed contract basis compared to only 1.2% expected. That’s a seven-month high. The Midwest led the charge with a 10.4% gain. Rising inventories and continued low interest rates were a big help. The bidding wars are abating. China Energy Shortage causes Apple and Tesla cutback and they are buying 70% of America’s coal production to meet the shortfall. Several key chip packaging and testing service providers supplying Intel, Nvidia, and Qualcomm also received notices to suspend production at their facilities in Jiangsu for several days. It’s Another Black Swan from the Middle Kingdom. The First Trust Skybridge Crypto Industry & Digital Economy ETF (CRPT)launched on September 23. It will be kicked off by my longtime friend and Mad Hedge Summit speaker Anthony Scaramucci. Get on the crypto train before it leaves the station. Ford (F) announced massive $11.4 Billion in US EV factories in Kentucky and Tennessee in partnership with South Korea’s SK Innovations, creating 11,000 jobs. It is one of the largest US industrial investments in recent memory. It is all part of a plan to completely reposition the company and invest $30 billion in EVs by 2025. A smart move, (F) finally read the writing on the wall. My Ten-Year View When we come out the other side of pandemic, we will be perfectly poised to launch into my new American Golden Age, or the next Roaring Twenties. With interest rates still at zero, oil cheap, there will be no reason not to. The Dow Average will rise by 800% to 240,000 or more in the coming decade. The American coming out the other side of the pandemic will be far more efficient and profitable than the old. Dow 240,000 here we come! My Mad Hedge Global Trading Dispatch saw a modest +1.03% gain in September. That’s against a Dow Average that was down -5.65% for the month. My 2021 year-to-date performance soared to 80.30%. The Dow Average was up 12.18% so far in 2021. Figuring that we are either at or close to a market bottom, and being a man of my convictions, I am 80% invested in financial stocks. Those include (MS), (GS), (JPM), (BLK), (BRKB), and (C). In for a penny, in for a pound. I am also 10% invested in the (SPY) and 10% long bonds (TLT). I quick trip by the Volatility Index (VIX) to $29 and a rapid 45 basis point leap in ten-year US Treasury bond yields gave us the entry point for all of these positions. That brings my 12-year total return to 502.85%, some 2.00 times the S&P 500 (SPX) over the same period. My 12-year average annualized return now stands at an unbelievable 42.49%, easily the highest in the industry. My trailing one-year return popped back to positively eye-popping 112.44%. I truly have to pinch myself when I see numbers like this. I bet many of you are making the biggest money of your long lives. We need to keep an eye on the number of US Coronavirus cases at 44 million and rising quickly and deaths topping 701,000, which you can find here. The coming week will be slow on the data front. On Monday, October 4 at 10:00 AM, US Factory Orders for August are out. On Tuesday, October 5 at 8:30 AM, the US Balance of Trade for August is announced. On Wednesday, October 6 at 8:15 AM, we get the Challenger Private Jobs Report for September. On Thursday, October 7 at 8:30 AM, Weekly Jobless Claims are announced. On Friday, October 8 at 8:30 AM, we learn the September Nonfarm Payroll Report. At 2:00 PM, the Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count are disclosed. As for me, in my many travels around the world, I never hesitate to visit places of historical interest. The London grave of Carl Marx, the Paris grave of Jim Morrison, the bridge of the cruiser of the USS San Francisco, which took a direct hit from an 18-inch Japanese shell, you name it. After attending one of my global strategy luncheons in Charleston, South Carolina, where the Civil War began with the Confederates firing on Fort Sumter in 1861, I looked for something to do. Fort Sumter was a full day trip and there wasn’t much to see anyway. So I pulled out my trusty iPhone to get some ideas. It only took me a second to decide. I attended Sunday church services at the Mother Emanuel African Methodist Episcopal Church, where 15 people were gunned down by a deranged white nationalist in 2014. The church was built in 1891 by freed slaves and their children. The congregation dates back earlier to 1791. It has every bit a handmade touch with fine Victorian stained-glass windows. The ushers stopped me at the door for 20 minutes where they suspiciously eyed me. Then they invited me in and sat me down next to the only other white person there, a Jewish woman from New York. It was a working-class congregation and polyester suites and print dresses were the order of the day. Everyone was polite, if not respectful, and I sang the hymns with the air of a book in the pew in front of me. The gospel singing was incredible, if not angelic. When I left, an usher thanked me for supporting their cause. Very moving. I praised them for their strength and tossed a $100 bill into the basket. Charleston is a big wedding destination now, with young couples pouring in from all over the South to tie the knot. Saturday night on Market Street saw at least a dozen bachelor and hen parties going bar to bar and getting wasted, the women falling off their platform shoes. The United States still has a lot of healing to go to recover from the recent years of turmoil. I thought this was one small step. Mother Emanuel African Methodist Episcopal Church​ Punting in Cambridge​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Quote of the Day“I have not failed, I have just found 10,000 ways that do not work,” said the inventor, Thomas Edison. This is not a solicitation to buy or sell securities The Mad Hedge Fund Trader is not an Investment advisor For full disclosures click here at: http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/disclosures The "Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader"(TM) and the "Mad Hedge Fund Trader" (TM) are protected by the United States Patent and Trademark Office The "Diary of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader" (C) is protected by the United States Copyright Office Futures trading involves a high degree of risk and may not be ​ Five ways to play the worldwide energy crunch - Barron's. Instacart? Rivian? IPOs and SPACs seem poised for a hot Q4. 'Clickbait' leads streaming ratings for Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX). Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) tops expectations with Q3 deliveries of 241K. Moonshot watch: Valuation on Fanatics (FANA) soars off sports betting. Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) #1 industrial gainer thrice in a month. Shares of China's Evergrande (OTCPK:EGRNF) suspended in Hong Kong. Fumio Kishida elected as Japan's 100th prime minister. Seeking Alpha’s Wall Street Breakfast Podcast Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Breakfast podcast brings you all the news you need to know for your market day. Released by 8:00 AM ET each morning, it is a quick listen that you can put on as you get ready to start your working day.​

​

 

[Bozzie]

Global Market Comments
October 5, 2021
Fiat LuxFeatured Trade:(HOW TO EXECUTE A VERTICAL BULL CALL SPREAD)
(AAPL)
(THANK GOODNESS, I DON’T LIVE IN SWEDEN!)
(EWD)

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How to Execute a Vertical Bull Call SpreadWe have recently had a large influx of new subscribers.

I have no idea why. Maybe it’s my sterling personality and rapier-like wit.

For whatever reason, I am going to update several educational pieces that are core to understanding the Mad Hedge trading strategy.

Most investors make the mistake of investing in positions that have only a 50/50 chance of success, or less. They’d do better with a coin toss.

The most experienced hedge fund traders find positions that have a 99% chance of success and then leverage up on those trades. Stop out of the losers quickly and you have an approach that will make you well into double digits, year in and year out, whether markets go up, down, or sideways.

For those readers looking to improve their trading results and create the unfair advantage they deserve, I have posted a training video on How to Execute a Vertical Bull Call Spread.

This is a matched pair of positions in the options market that will be profitable when the underlying security goes up, sideways, or down in price over a defined limited period of time.

It is the perfect position to have onboard during markets that have declining or low volatility, much like we have experienced for most of the last several years, and will almost certainly see again.

I have strapped on quite a few of these babies across many asset classes this year, and they are a major reason why I am up so much last year.

To understand this trade, I will use the example of Apple trade, which most people own and know well.

On October 8, 2018, I sent out a Trade Alert by text message and email that said the following:

BUY the Apple (AAPL) November 2018 $180-$190 in-the-money vertical BULL CALL spread at $8.80 or best

At the time, Apple shares were trading at $216.17. To accomplish this, they had to execute the following trades:

Buy 11 November 2018 (AAPL) $180 calls at….….……$38.00
Sell short 11 November 2018 (AAPL) $190 calls at…...$29.20
Net Cost:…………………….………..………..…..................$8.80

A screenshot of my own trading platform is below:

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This gets traders into the position at $8.80, which costs them $9,680 ($8.80 per option X 100 shares per option X 11 contracts).
The vertical part of the description of this trade refers to the fact that both options have the same underlying security (AAPL), the same expiration date (November 16, 2018), and only different strike prices ($180 and $190).

The maximum potential profit can be calculated as follows:

+$190.00 Upper strike price
-$180.00 Lower strike price
+$10.00 Maximum Potential Profit

Another way of explaining this is that the call spread you bought for $8.80 is worth $10.00 at expiration on November 16, giving you a total return of 13.63% in 27 trading days. Not bad!

The great thing about these positions is that your risk is defined. You can’t lose any more than the $9,680 you put up.

If Apple goes bankrupt, we get a flash crash or suffer another 9/11 type event, you will never get a margin call from your broker in the middle of the night asking for more money. This is why hedge funds like vertical bull call spreads so much.

As long as Apple traded at or above $190 on the November 16 expiration date, you will make a profit on this trade.

As it turns out, my take on Apple shares proved dead-on, and the shares rose to $222.22, or a healthy $32 above my upper strike.

The total profit on the trade came to:

($10.00 expiration - $8.80 cost) = $1.20

($1.20 profit X 100 shares per contract X 11 contracts) = $1,320.

To summarize all of this, you buy low and sell high. Everyone talks about it but very few actually do it.

Occasionally, Vertical Bull Call Spreads don’t work and the wheels fall off. As hard as it may be to believe, I am not infallible.

So if I’m wrong and I tell you to buy a vertical bull call spread, and the shares fall not a little, but a LOT, you will lose money. In those rare cases when that happens, I’ll shoot out a Trade Alert to you with stop-loss instructions before the damage gets out of control.

I start looking at a stop loss when the deficit hit 10% of the size of the position or 1% or the total capital in my trading account.

To watch the video edition of How to Execute a Vertical Bull Call Spread complete with more detailed instructions on how to execute the position with your own online platform, please click here.

Good luck and good trading.

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[h=3]Vertical Bull Call Spreads Are the Way to Go
in a flat to Rising Market[/h]
​

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Thank Goodness I Don't Live in Sweden!I recently found the chart below showing world tax rates as a percentage of GDP for the past 40 years. Sweden suffers the world's heaviest tax burden at 51%, compared to only 27% in the US.
The US has among the world's lowest tax burdens in terms of actual taxes paid which has been falling for the last 15 years.

Listening to TV pundits, you would think we had the world's highest tax rates. They are dead wrong.

Germany, home to some of the world's best-run and most profitable companies which make the Fatherland a major exporter, has one of the lowest tax bills.

Iceland sits at the bottom and recently went bankrupt, thanks to an overdose of free-market deregulatory philosophy.
Americans historically have had a very strong resistance to taxation which you can trace back to the libertarian foundations of the country.

The Revolutionary War in which 17 of my known ancestors fought was primarily about taxes.

The top end of the distribution is packed with European nations but you never hear them complain about high tax rates.

Most believe the cost of the social safety net is worth it. Those that don't move to the US, Monte Carlo, Lichtenstein, or the British Virgin Islands.
Of course, having once been a part-owner in a fashion model agency in Stockholm, I can certainly vouch for the advantages of living in the world's most taxed domicile. Hedge fund profits go a long way there.

Suffice to say, you spend a lot of time indoors in the home of the Vikings, especially in the winter.

Things could be worse.

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[h=2]Well, Maybe It's Not So Bad After All[/h]
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Quote of the Day“Semiconductors are the new industrials,” said Josh Brown of Ritholtz Wealth Management.

This is not a solicitation to buy or sell securities
The Mad Hedge Fund Trader is not an Investment advisor
For full disclosures click here at:
http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/disclosures

The "Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader"(TM)
and the "Mad Hedge Fund Trader" (TM)
are protected by the United States Patent and Trademark Office
The "Diary of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader" (C)
is protected by the United States Copyright Office
Futures trading involves a high degree of risk and may not be sui​

 

[CoachCB]

I drove from DC to Jacksonville yesterday, drove straight through - 714 miles in 9 hours 57 minutes! 3 stops for gas, bathroom, food. I missed the market tanking yesterday, would have certainly added some APPL and S&P 500 index.

Glad you're into the farm house now. Just in time, the winter sets in soon up there! I'll be in St. Pete by the end of the week, still have to fly back to DC once a week for the next month or two (which sucks), but glad to be back in Florida!

Glad to see ADVL moving up.

 

[Bozzie]

Got this today from a sharp guy. I've been reducing my cost fairly steadily on BABA...It's been a brutal few months.

"Did you get my email about how our $$ managers at Morgan Stanley love BABA at these levels" ?

Read in Browser

Top News Global energy crisis Shutterstock​ Energy prices continue to surge to fresh records as renewed fears stoke panic of the worst shortage in decades. India has warned it has only four days of coal reserves left, German power plants are running out of fuel and China just unloaded an Australian coal shipment despite an import ban and icy relations. Supply is just not there as economies rebound from a pandemic-induced lull, while problems like logistical logjams and transport bottlenecks are adding to the pressure. Bigger picture: OPEC+ didn't come to the rescue yesterday as the group decided to continue its original plan of gradually releasing 400,000 additional barrels of oil per month. That's despite calls from world leaders, including the White House, to bring more crude on to the market and keep a lid on prices. According to the EIA, average daily crude production in the U.S. has been 6.7% lower than last year, while commercial stockpiles of crude, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, are off by 15% compared to 2020. That's helping send oil prices to their highest levels in three years, with Brent (CO1:COM) and WTI crude (CL1:COM) touching $82 and $78 a barrel, respectively. High natural gas prices (NG1:COM) are also prompting American utilities to switch to coal this year, but their supply is constrained by miners that have cut capacity by 40% over the last six years. This past week, coal from the central Appalachia region rose $2.20 to $73.25, up 35% YTD and the highest level since May 2019. Thought bubble: "Investors are underappreciating the structural changes that have taken place in the North American energy landscape that could lead to these higher prices persisting for some time," wrote Lucas Pipes, an analyst with B. Riley Securities. Some are even calling the current situation the first major energy crisis of the clean power transition, with President Biden setting a goal to decarbonize the economy by 2050 (power demand is expected to increase 60% by then). "It is a cautionary message about how complex the energy transition is going to be," added Daniel Yergin, author of The New Map: Energy, Climate and the Clash of Nations. (32 comments) Tech Six hours of darkness All of Facebook's (FB) services are back online after a change to its backbone routers disrupted services and the company's day-to-day operations. The stock is up 1.5% in premarket trading after plummeting nearly 5% yesterday when Facebook, Messenger, WhatsApp and Instagram all went down. The company said the problem affected internal services, which complicated its attempts to fix the problem, though there were reports that employees could not enter buildings. Quote: "Our engineering teams have learned that configuration changes on the backbone routers that coordinate network traffic between our data centers caused issues that interrupted this communication," Facebook said in a statement. "This disruption to network traffic had a cascading effect on the way our data centers communicate, bringing our services to a halt." Facebook is already under pressure following a 60 Minutesreport that suggested it intentionally boosted politically charged or misleading content as engagement bait. Former Facebook employee and whistleblower Frances Haugen outed herself as the source of The Wall Street Journal's blistering "Facebook Files" series of exposes, saying the company prioritized profits over safety. Shares of the social media giant are even down nearly 15% from their recent highs and entered oversold territory after yesterday's drop, according to the relative strength index. Still under fire: Haugen heads before Congress today in hearing entitled "Protecting Kids Online." "When we realized tobacco companies were hiding the harms it caused, the government took action. When we figured out cars were safer with seatbelts, the government took action," she wrote in prepared remarks delivered to the Senate Commerce subcommittee. "I implore you to do the same here." (10 comments) Stocks Volatility watch Not a day goes by without action in the stock market, especially during October. Shares of Big Tech companies slid on Monday, taking the S&P 500 to its lowest close since late July. In fact, the benchmark index is now more than halfway toward an official correction, though many of its components, especially tech, are already in a bear market due to tapering and higher rate concerns. Facebook (FB) was among the worst-performing S&P 500 stocks yesterday, slumping nearly 5% as Instagram, WhatsApp and its namesake platform suffered global outages. Snapshot: Earnings season is just a week away and some analysts don't like what they see under the hood for the third quarter. Inflationary pressures and supply chain problems are weighing on estimates, which could add to the list of speed bumps heading into year-end. Citigroup's Global Earnings Revision Index (a global measure of analyst upgrades minus downgrades of earnings expectations) is even on its way toward negative territory after hitting an all-time high in May. While the equity rout worsened overnight as futures headed even further south, volatile October is putting up a fight. Contracts linked to the Dow, S&P 500 turned 0.3% higher at 3:00 a.m. ET, while the Nasdaq tacked on 0.5%. There's still a lot to think about: Rosy economic data, like the latest payrolls number on Friday, could be a boon for the recovery, while the "buy the dip" strategy that has been in effect since March 2020 could continue to be a powerful force. "We do not believe the recent bout of de-risking will lead to sustained falls, and maintain the stance to keep buying into any weakness," said Marko Kolanovic, JPMorgan's chief global markets strategist. Over in Washington: Lawmakers are still trying to agree to raise or suspend the debt ceiling to avert a default on the national debt. The Treasury has warned that Congress must act before Oct. 18 or the U.S. will risk honoring its bond payments, but that hasn't stopped the politics. "Let me be clear about the task ahead of us: we must get a bill to the president's desk dealing with the debt limit by the end of the week. Period," Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer wrote in a letter to his Democratic colleagues. (4 comments) Media Hollywood shutdown? Off-screen Hollywood workers have voted overwhelmingly to approve a strike against film and television production in the event they can't come to a last-minute deal in stalled talks with studios. Members of the International Association of Theatrical Stage Employees (IATSE) voted with a 98% margin (and 90% turnout) to approve the strike, should discussions with the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP) fail to produce a new contract. All 36 locals, including 13 on the West Coast, as well as 23 around the country, voted in favor of the authorization. What they want: Negotiations over long on-set hours, wage scales, residuals for streaming and pension/health fund stability have been ongoing since May, according to Variety. The developments could also affect major and "mini-major" film studio stocks including Disney (DIS), Universal (CMCSA), Warner Bros. (T), Sony (SONY), Paramount (VIAC), Lions Gate (LGF.A), Eros STX Global (ESGC) and MGM Holdings (OTC:MGMB). “I hope that the studios will see and understand the resolve of our members,” said IATSE President Matthew Loeb. “The ball is in their court. If they want to avoid a strike, they will return to the bargaining table and make us a reasonable offer.“ Otherwise, Loeb now has the power to pull 60,000 workers off sets, which would shut down production across the United States Response from the producer reps: "The AMPTP remains committed to reaching an agreement that will keep the industry working. We deeply value our IATSE crew members and are committed to working with them to avoid shutting down the industry at such a pivotal time, particularly since the industry is still recovering from the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic." (20 comments) Today's Markets In Asia, Japan -2.2%. Hong Kong +0.3%. China closed. India +0.48%. In Europe, at midday, London +0.7%. Paris +0.8%. Frankfurt +0.3%. Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.3%. S&P +0.3%. Nasdaq +0.4%. Crude +0.5% at $78.01. Gold -0.6% at $1756.20. Bitcoin +5.4% at $50104. Ten-year Treasury Yield +2 bps to 1.5% Today's Economic Calendar 8:30 Goods and Services Trade 8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales 9:45 PMI Composite Final 10:00 ISM Service Index 10:30 Fed's Barkin: “Fed Listens” 1:15 PM Fed's Quarles: “LIBOR Transition” Companies reporting earnings today » What else is happening... Pfizer-BioNTech (PFE, BNTX) COVID-19 vaccine efficacy wanes after 6 months. Cathie Wood's ARK Innovation (NYSEARCA:ARKK) hits four-month low; RSI says it's oversold. New BofA crypto coverage includes JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) and DraftKings (NASDAQ:DKNG). In time for the chip crunch... GlobalFoundries (GFS) files for initial public offering. Tusa at it again: GE (NYSE:GE) should be avoided given high expectations. Mastercard (NYSE:MA), Visa (NYSE:V) dip after Twitter (NYSE:TWTR) adds Bitcoin. Canada invokes 1977 treaty with U.S. in Enbridge Line 5 dispute. Southwest (NYSE:LUV) is latest airline to require COVID vaccines for workers. Seeking More Seeking Alpha’s Wall Street Breakfast Podcast Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Breakfast podcast brings you all the news you need to know for your market day. Released by 8:00 AM ET each morning, it is a quick listen that you can put on as you get ready to start your working day.​

​

 

[Bozzie]

I drove from DC to Jacksonville yesterday, drove straight through - 714 miles in 9 hours 57 minutes! 3 stops for gas, bathroom, food. I missed the market tanking yesterday, would have certainly added some APPL and S&P 500 index.

Glad you're into the farm house now. Just in time, the winter sets in soon up there! I'll be in St. Pete by the end of the week, still have to fly back to DC once a week for the next month or two (which sucks), but glad to be back in Florida!

Glad to see ADVL moving up.

I've marathoned Seattle to LA a few times driving..talk about shattered afterward.

 

[Bozzie]

October 6, 2021

Good morning.

Thanks to all who attended our DealBook Dialogue call yesterday on cryptocurrency and the environment. There will be more on that in a special edition of the newsletter later this week. Our next event is on Tuesday, Oct. 12, at 1 p.m. Eastern. Join us then for a discussion about the business of longevity. Register here to attend.

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Facing the opposition.Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

[h=2]Critics build their case against Powell[/h]

Jay Powell, the Fed chair, has been praised for how he used the central bank’s powers to steer the economy through the pandemic. His term as chair expires in February, and insiders say that he has a good chance of being reappointed. But the decision is subject to an unusually high level of uncertainty, with growing complications around his renomination, The Times’s Jeanna Smialek and Jim Tankersley report.

Powell’s critics cite ethical lapses at the Fed and his mixed record as a regulator. Senator Elizabeth Warren, who opposes Powell’s renomination, said that the chair should be held responsible for recent revelations that top Fed officials traded in their personal accounts last year, when the central bank’s policy moves could have benefited their portfolios.

The trading scandal has added ammo for Powell’s critics, who say that the former investment banker and private equity executive has blind spots on banking regulation. This is a narrative that has been growing since this summer, when Better Markets, a nonprofit group skeptical of big banks, released a report critical of Powell’s regulatory record.

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Rating Powell’s record on regulation: DealBook reached out to experts in banking regulation for an assessment of the Fed chair’s tenure. Their opinions were mixed:

Anat Admati, a Stanford professor and big-bank gadfly, said that Powell “allowed the banks to pay out dividends at the height of the pandemic, when we were facing massive uncertainty. That was unambiguously a bad decision.” James Barth of Auburn University and the Milken Institute, said, “In my view, he has not taken any actions to make significant changes in any of the existing major U.S. banking laws to classify him as a lax or stringent chairman.” Karen Petrou, co-founder of Federal Financial Analytics, said that “the fundamental constructs” of post-crisis regulation remained intact, so debates over Powell’s regulatory role were “big arguments over unremarkable changes.” Powell’s problem is that the biggest risks are now outside the traditional banking system, in fintech, cryptocurrency and other sectors outside the Fed’s authority, Petrou noted. Congress has the power to fix that, but not by sending Powell packing, she said.

There’s also a fight brewing over who will lead the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, another banking regulator. The White House’s pick, Saule Omorova, a favorite of progressives, is facing opposition from trade groups representing both the biggest banks and the smallest community lenders, which could influence moderate Democratic support for her nomination.

[h=3]HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING[/h]

A new report paints an apocalyptic picture of a U.S. debt default. As Congress wrangles over whether to raise the federal debt limit, White House economists published a report today about the “economic maelstrom” that would result if the government can’t pay its bills. President Biden and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will meet with C.E.O.s today to discuss the debt limit.

Facebook says its outage was tied to a cascade of mistakes. In a blog post, the social media giant explained that a wrong command during routine maintenance took down its network. The hourslong outage on Monday has added to advertisers’ growing doubts about the effectiveness of the platform.

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Kellogg workers stage a walkout. About 1,400 employees went on strike at cereal factories in Michigan, Nebraska, Pennsylvania and Tennessee. The action, by the same union that led a recent walkout at Nabisco, comes as unions tap into the frustrations of workers during the pandemic.

Biden slashes his social spending bill by more than $1 trillion. The White House and Democratic leaders said that they would propose spending $2.3 trillion on social programs over a decade. That’s substantially less than their original $3.5 trillion plan, which could mean jettisoning some initiatives entirely.

Ozy Media is sued. LifeLine, which manages the money of athletes and celebrities, invested $2 million in Ozy in February. In its suit, LifeLine says Ozy failed to disclose pertinent facts about its business before it invested, including the infamous conference call in which an Ozy executive impersonated someone from YouTube.

[h=2]Exclusive: Mark Cuban’s art-house deal[/h]

Magnolia Pictures, the film distributor owned by Mark Cuban and Todd Wagner, has hired an investment bank to run a sale of the company, DealBook hears. The move reflects the rising value of film libraries as streaming services amass content. (See: Amazon’s $8.45 billion acquisition of MGM in May.) Cuban and Eamonn Bowles, Magnolia’s president, did not respond to requests for comment.

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Magnolia has managed to survive in a tough corner of Hollywood. Its business model involves buying rights to finished films at festivals like Cannes and Sundance and attracting an audience through grass-roots marketing and awards buzz. While mass-appeal movies have started to rebound at the box office, art-house films haven’t followed suit, in part because their audience tends to be older and therefore more concerned about the coronavirus.

Magnolia has about 500 films in its library. The company, founded in 2001, is known for documentaries like “Blackfish,” “I Am Not Your Negro” and “Capturing the Friedmans.” It generated around $30 million in sales last year and expects to bring in about $40 million this year.

It was once part of a bigger media play. Wagner and Cuban’s 2929 Entertainment wanted to bring big-media ideas of vertical integration to the art-house world when it acquired Magnolia and the indie cinema chain Landmark Theatres in 2003. But the group sold Landmark to the billionaire Charles Cohen’s real estate group in 2018, when Netflix was emerging as an art-film superpower.

Plenty of smaller film companies are exploring deals in hopes of tapping streamers’ appetite for content. Blackstone’s yet-to-be-named media venture has acquired Reese Witherspoon’s Sunshine Productions for roughly $900 million, for example, and Will Smith and Jada Pinkett Smith’s media company, Westbrook, is also reportedly in talks with the outfit. SpringHill, an entertainment company controlled by LeBron James that helped produce the “Space Jam” reboot, has reportedly been in talks with RedBird Capital.

[h=2]Seen and heard at the Facebook hearing[/h]

In more than three hours of testimony at the Senate yesterday, Frances Haugen, a former Facebook product manager who has turned whistle-blower, gave lawmakers a rare look into the inner workings of the tech giant.

“As long as Facebook is operating in the shadows, hiding its research from public scrutiny, it is unaccountable.”

— Haugen on the need for more regulation of Facebook. “There is nobody currently holding Zuckerberg accountable but himself,” she said of the company’s founder and controlling shareholder. “The buck stops with Mark.”

“I have rarely, if ever, seen the kind of unanimity on display today.”

— Senator Richard Blumenthal, Democrat of Connecticut, in a news conference after the hearing, on the bipartisan appetite for regulation of Facebook. During the hearing, Senator Jerry Moran, Republican of Kansas, told Blumenthal, “The conversation so far reminds me that you and I ought to resolve our differences and introduce legislation.”

“Facebook and the other big tech companies are throwing a bunch of money around this town, and people are listening to them.”

— Senator Amy Klobuchar, Democrat of Minnesota, on what has held back regulation of Big Tech to date.

“Most of us just don’t recognize the false picture of the company that is being painted.”

— Mark Zuckerberg in a memo to Facebook employees sent after the hearing.

[h=2]Here comes Kanter[/h]

Jonathan Kanter, President Biden’s choice to be the Justice Department’s antitrust chief, will have his nomination hearing before the Senate Judiciary Committee today. It comes during a push by progressives to remake antitrust law, which coincides with record deal volumes.

If approved for the post, some say that Kanter could be the toughest antitrust enforcer since Joel Klein — who famously took on Microsoft. That would make Kanter an unlikely economic populist, since in private practice he once represented … Microsoft.

Kanter is a Big Law partner with a progressive bent. In his years of private practice, Kanter took on Big Tech on behalf of clients like Microsoft and News Corp. He has said that the work led him to see the dangers of corporate concentration. While tech companies may push for Kanter’s recusal given his past work, legal experts said that it shouldn’t be a problem unless he was put in a position to oversee a case against a company he defended, like Microsoft.

His nomination has bipartisan support. Senator Elizabeth Warren, whom Kanter advised on her run for the Democratic presidential nomination last year, has offered her endorsement. Two of nine former heads of the Justice Department who wrote in support of Kanter’s nomination worked in Republican administrations: Charles Rule from the Reagan administration and Makan Delrahim from the Trump administration. “I don’t agree with him,” Rule told The Times, “But he has the ideology they want, and he is in the top echelon of antitrust lawyers of his generation.”

There are some $1.9 trillion in pending deals, according to Bloomberg. Stricter scrutiny could scuttle some of those mergers, such as the aborted combination of Aon and Willis Towers Watson, which gave up on their $30 billion tie-up in July rather than endure a lengthy court battle with the Justice Department. Last month, the department filed an antitrust suit against American Airlines and JetBlue for a partnership it argued amounted to a “de facto merger.”

Business groups are concerned about the direction of antitrust enforcement. “The government already has the power it needs to review and challenge the comparatively few mergers and acquisitions that raise competitive concerns,” a coalition of industry groups wrote in a letter to the Senate subcommittee in advance of Kanter’s hearing.

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[h=3]THE SPEED READ[/h]

Deals

Private equity firms are offering the highest premiums for listed companies in over 20 years. (FT) Carl Icahn wants to stop the $2 billion deal between Southwest Gas and Questar Pipeline. (WSJ) Nvidia has offered concessions to the E.U. to get the green light for its $54 billion acquisition of Arm. (Reuters)

Policy

Lawmakers are seeking details on the revolving door between accounting firms and the Treasury Department. (NYT) “I Designed Algorithms at Facebook. Here’s How to Regulate Them.” (Times Opinion) A start-up is seeking approval from the S.E.C. to operate the first round-the-clock U.S. stock exchange. (WSJ) “Why Wall Street Cheers China, Despite Growing Business Unease” (NYT)

Best of the rest

Andy Jassy, Amazon’s C.E.O., said that the company’s pandemic sick leave program had fallen short. (CNBC) “Diversity at Elite Law Firms Is So Bad Clients Are Docking Fees” (Bloomberg Businessweek) “Squid Game,” the Netflix hit show, taps into South Korea’s economic anxiety. (NYT) “Ozy Shows That Serious Black Media Needs a New Business Model.” (Times Opinion) Hank Paulson, James Gorman and others discuss the legacy of David Komansky, the former chief of Merrill Lynch, who died last week at age 82. (NYT)

Anna Schaverien contributed reporting.

Thanks for reading! We’ll see you tomorrow.

We’d like your feedback. Please email thoughts and suggestions to dealbook@nytimes.com.

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Andrew Ross Sorkin, Founder/Editor-at-Large, New York @andrewrsorkin

Jason Karaian, Editor, London @jkaraian

Sarah Kessler, Deputy Editor, Chicago @sarahfkessler

Stephen Gandel, News Editor, New York @stephengandel

Michael J. de la Merced, Reporter, London @m_delamerced

Lauren Hirsch, Reporter, New York @LaurenSHirsch

Ephrat Livni, Reporter, Washington D.C. @el72champs

 

[CoachCB]

I'm still holding all of my BABA, I've added a few shares over the last few months. My DCA is around $230+/share. I need it to rebound!! I'm hanging onto it long. It's a good company...but the CCP are not good people!

How long is Seattle to LA?? Hell, Seattle to SF seems like it would be brutal!

 

[Bozzie]

I'm still holding all of my BABA, I've added a few shares over the last few months. My DCA is around $230+/share. I need it to rebound!! I'm hanging onto it long. It's a good company...but the CCP are not good people!

How long is Seattle to LA?? Hell, Seattle to SF seems like it would be brutal!

18 hrs give or take..I'd leave a 4 AM and get in around 10 pm..it's unsafe but the less time in LA the better.
CCP are not good people..100% but I like the economy potential.

Read in Browser

Top News Trillion-dollar gimmick Shutterstock​ As the debt ceiling crisis escalates on Capitol Hill, a once far-fetched solution to the dilemma has been gaining steam. Talk of a trillion-dollar platinum coin - which would be deposited at the Federal Reserve as an asset swap - could result in an extra $1T to cover a big portion of Washington's bill. In fact, the coin could be minted "within hours of the Treasury Secretary's decision to do so," said Philip Diehl, former director of the U.S. Mint under the Clinton administration. Backdrop: The concept of a trillion-dollar coin dates back to 1992, when populist presidential candidate Bo Gritz suggested the idea during his second White House run. The idea resurfaced during the debt ceiling crisis of 2013 and the Obama administration even explored the possibility before the impasse came to an end with a continuing resolution. The method results in the U.S. minting more money to pay for its obligations, rather than borrowing through Treasuries (or the collection of taxes). Can the Fed print as much money as it wants? While the trillion-dollar coin is not illegal, the accounting ploy has been frowned upon as it could threaten the checks and balances of Congress and open a Pandora's box about all of public finance. It's based on a loophole from a 1996 bill that discusses commemorative coins. According to Law 31 U.S.C. 5112 (k): "The Secretary may mint and issue platinum bullion coins and proof platinum coins in accordance with such specifications, designs, varieties, quantities, denominations and inscriptions as Secretary, in the Secretary's discretion, may prescribe from time to time." Outlook: "I'm opposed to it and I don't believe that we should consider it seriously. It's really a gimmick," Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told CNBC on Tuesday. The Biden administration has also insisted that the debt ceiling should be raised through bipartisan action, but with a deadline looming for when the government will run out of money, desperate times may call for desperate measures. If the debt ceiling is not resolved by Oct. 18, Yellen has warned that a default would "likely precipitate a historic financial crisis that would compound the damage of the continuing public health emergency, as well as triggering a spike in interest rates, a steep drop in stock prices and other financial turmoil." (14 comments) Stocks Red lights flashing? Warnings of a stock market downturn continue to surface amid fears of inflation, slowing growth and rising interest rates. According to a new survey by Allianz Life, 54% of American investors are worried that a big market crash is on the horizon. More than two-thirds of the 1,005 respondents also said they were protecting their money from losses by keeping some of it out of the market as strategists sound the alarm over the current investing environment. "I think we've ultra-accommodative monetary policy for a long time. Anybody that's managed to put risk on the page in the last 13 years, but more specifically in the last 18 months, has been well rewarded," said Jonathan Pollock, Elliott co-chief executive officer. "Now, I think the cycle is evolving. I'm not saying that the market’s going to go down 20% tomorrow, but I am saying that there is sensitivity." "Everybody on Wall Street, and like you say, an awful lot of people on Main Street, are focused on markets at a top or markets past the top or just about to the top. I think when you get that kind of mentality or that kind of a narrative out there, that's so popular, you know, you're probably not there," added David Hunter, chief macro strategist at Contrarian Macro Advisors. But once the Fed begins to cut back its balance sheet and taper its asset purchases, "we're going to see more wealth destruction [next year], I think - once we get past this last move - than we've ever seen." "U.S. stocks may be on the verge of starting the biggest bear market since the Great Depression," declared Jon Wolfenbarger, CEO of BullAndBearProfits.com and former equity analyst at Allianz Global Investors. "Now with the Fed talking about tapering and money supply growth slowing significantly from 39% Y/Y in February to only 8% Y/Y in August, perhaps that is enough of a 'tight monetary policy' to change investor psychology to a more bearish mood? We will see." (13 comments) Trending Un-anchored Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) will begin sailing its full fleet of 28 ships by April 1 of next year, according to CEO Frank Del Rio, marking a big milestone for the company since the pandemic slammed its business. The cruise line currently has 8 vessels in operation and hopes 75% of its ships will hit the seas by the end of the year. Quote: "If anything, the world is opening up, more people are getting vaccinated," he told CNBC. "Pent-up demand continues to be very, very strong for the sailings we've operated thus far. Everything has been going to plan and on-board spending is at an all-time high." Norwegian requires its travelers to be fully vaccinated before boarding, but the cruise line is not yet mandating boosters (customers are asking). Del Rio also believes that the current vaccine mandate is a "competitive advantage," despite the possibility of missing out on some customers. "When we came out with our vaccine mandates in early April, it was heresy back then, we were the oddball, but today everyone has followed suit because of the necessity to protect our society." Go deeper: Over the summer, Miami-based Norwegian sparred with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis over the state's law banning businesses from demanding proof of customer vaccination. However, the cruise line said on Aug. 8 that a federal judge issued a temporary injunction to preserve its proof of vaccination requirement. (13 comments) Cryptocurrency Sigh of relief The U.S. will not ban cryptocurrencies like China, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler said at a House hearing on Tuesday, though the agency will focus on ensuring that the industry is fairly regulated. "Our approach is really quite different," he declared, adding that any ban would probably have to be legislated by Congress. The stance is a boon for the crypto world, after Gensler last month said the industry was "rife with fraud, scams, and abuse." Bigger picture: Jerome Powell seems to agree with Gensler as the Fed boss recently said he has no intention of banning cryptos, but stablecoins need more regulatory oversight. In contrast, China recently declared crypto transactions illegal, but it also seeks to launch its own central bank digital currency dubbed the digital yuan. In September, Beijing issued a sweeping ultimatum against crypto trading, stating all transactions were illegal and aggressively moved to root out token mining. Speaking of crypto, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has broken above $50K and is now approaching $52K just a week after the digital token bounced off $41K. How would a ban work anyway? Bringing forth such a measure could be legally difficult for the U.S. government, but even if would go through, enforcing the ban would be the harder part of the equation. Unless the government would exert strict control over the internet, individuals could download Bitcoin wallet software, run a node and complete transactions. That may make the currency out of the realm of widespread adoption, but could also increase its demand for the exact same reason. Over the last decade, Bitcoin has also made inroads in the U.S. financial system, where it is treated as a commodity, so a ban could face other barriers like stymieing innovation and closing down institutions overseeing billions of dollars in crypto assets. (97 comments) Today's Markets In Asia, Japan -1.1%. Hong Kong -0.6%. China closed. India -0.9%. In Europe, at midday, London -1.8%. Paris -2.3%. Frankfurt -2.4%. Futures at 6:20, Dow -1.1%. S&P -1.3%. Nasdaq -1.5%. Crude -0.5% at $78.53. Gold -0.7% at $1749. Bitcoin +2.6%at $51312. Ten-year Treasury Yield +2 bps to 1.55% Today's Economic Calendar 7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications 8:15 ADP Jobs Report 9:00 Fed's Bostic: "Rural Economics" 10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories 11:30 Fed's Bostic: "Public Leadership" Companies reporting earnings today » What else is happening... Pepsi (NASDAQ:PEP) CFO expects more price hikes in early 2022. Charlie Munger doubled down on Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) as shares dropped. Visa (NYSE:V) drafts plan to reduce some fees banks pay to Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL). Both sides of the aisle agree on regulating social networks. Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) surges after U.S. Army selects for intelligence data fabric. Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) seeks U.S. regulatory nod for COVID booster shot. Delivery capabilities? Home Depot (NYSE:HD) teams up with Walmart's (NYSE:WMT) GoLocal. Oprah Winfrey-backed Oatly's (NASDAQ:OTLY) stock price sinks to post-IPO low. Burger King (NYSE:QSR) to sell plant-based chicken nuggets in three-city test. Seeking More Seeking Alpha’s Wall Street Breakfast Podcast Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Breakfast podcast brings you all the news you need to know for your market day. Released by 8:00 AM ET each morning, it is a quick listen that you can put on as you get ready to start your working day.​

​

 

[Bozzie]

October 7, 2021

Good morning. (Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Sign up here.)

Vaccinator in chief.Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

[h=2]The White House makes its vaccine pitch[/h]

President Biden is headed to Chicago today, where he will make another push for companies to announce coronavirus vaccine mandates. He plans to meet with Scott Kirby of United Airlines and to visit a construction company considering a mandate, a White House official told DealBook. Throughout, the president will stress the message that vaccine mandates are crucial to the economic recovery. To bolster its case, the White House released a report this morning on the effects of corporate vaccine mandates to date.

In September, the president asked the Occupational Safety and Health Administration to write rules that would require companies with more than 100 employees to mandate vaccinations or weekly testing. While OSHA goes through the lengthy rule-making process, which could take several more weeks, the White House is urging companies to act now.

OSHA is working on standards that pass legal muster. That includes a number of rigorous, time-consuming steps, like demonstrating that workers face a grave danger at work and that a rule is necessary to address the danger. The agency is also working through the long list of questions that business groups have sent seeking guidance on the finer points of vaccine mandates. A few of the thorny issues:

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Will independent contractors count toward the 100-employee threshold? Who will pay for testing? Companies? The government? The unvaccinated? Will vaccine mandates include boosters, if approved?

The White House says early evidence shows that vaccine mandates work.United Airlines, which announced a mandate in August, recently reported that 99 percent of its workers had been vaccinated and that it had received 20,000 applications for about 2,000 flight attendant positions, a much higher ratio than before the pandemic. Tyson Foods reported a 91 percent vaccination rateahead of a November deadline, compared with less than half before its mandate announcement in August. Those figures will probably be cited in efforts to address concerns among employers that mandates would cause workers to quit, particularly in industries facing labor shortages.

The White House argues that vaccine mandates are good for the economy. In its report, it cited a Goldman Sachs report estimating that the government order could lead to an increase in vaccinations that would encourage “many of the five million workers that have left the labor force since the start of the pandemic to return.” The administration also highlighted the economic burden that hospital stays for the unvaccinated put on the system.

The OSHA standards would give reluctant companies even more cover. Several big employers have imposed mandates since Biden’s announcement, including 3M and Procter & Gamble. Others, like JPMorgan Chase and Walmart, have yet to issue broad requirements. But even after OSHA finalizes its rules, some employers wary of mandates may not act, betting that they won’t be punished because of the agency’s limited enforcement resources or that the standards could get bogged down in court.

“Some companies are looking at it and saying, ‘Great that those employers had a good experience. I don’t know if we’ll have the same experience,’” Douglas Brayley, an employment lawyer at Ropes and Gray, told DealBook. “Or, they may look at it and say, ‘Great, they had a 91 percent vaccination rate, but we are so thinly staffed we couldn’t possibly lose 9 percent of our work force.’”

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[h=3]HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING[/h]

Democrats and Republicans approach a two-month debt limit extension. The short-term deal took shape after President Biden met with finance executives who said that the threat of a government debt default this month was already hurting the economic recovery. “The latest plan to stop the U.S. defaulting for no reason whatsoever is taken directly from the Greek default crisis handbook — kick the can down the road,” Paul Donovan of UBS wrote in a research note.

A data breach hits Twitch. An anonymous hacker published what appeared to be an enormous trove of data from the Amazon-owned video streaming service, including the history of Twitch’s source code, information about payouts to streamers and an unreleased online game store. Twitch confirmed that a breach had taken place.

The Facebook whistle-blower takes her case abroad. Frances Haugen, who testified at a Senate hearing on Tuesday, has also spoken with policymakers in Brussels, London and Paris about the need for more oversight of the social media giant. Facebook is slowing product upgrades amid the scrutiny, as well as limiting how much information is shared within the company.

Tesla faces a boardroom challenge at its annual shareholder meeting. At the electric-vehicle maker’s gathering today, which comes shortly after reporting record deliveries, some investors are trying to oust two directors: the former Fox executive James Murdoch; and Kimbal Musk, the brother of Tesla’s chief, Elon Musk.

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Moderna plans to build a vaccine factory in Africa. The pharma firm said that it would invest $500 million in the plant, in a location not yet decided, where it will make up to 500 million doses a year of mRNA vaccines, including its coronavirus shot. Separately, Asian countries have joined the U.S. in making deals with Merck for supplies of the antiviral pill that the company says cuts risk of hospitalization and death from Covid.

[h=2]G.M. thinks big[/h]

General Motors announced an ambitious plan yesterday to more than double its revenue by 2030. The target is based on investments G.M. has made in electric vehicles and self-driving technology, as well as on its push into services, like auto insurance. It also reflects the grand ambition of Mary Barra, the C.E.O., to transform G.M. and defend its business from the tech companies that have been trying to outmaneuver it.

“Think about the vehicle not only as an electric vehicle, but as a software platform,” Barra said, sounding a lot more like Steve Jobs than the G.M. legend Alfred Sloan. To that end, the automakers’s plan includes:

30 models of electric vehicles by 2025, including a $30,000 S.U.V.; a glass roofed, all-wheel-drive Chevrolet Silverado pickup; and a plug-in Hummer. An expansion of services, including an electric-van delivery service called Brightdrop; Cruise, an Uber rival that uses autonomous driving; and in-car subscription services, like OnStar, that it projects to bring in tens of billions of dollars by the end of the decade.

By the numbers: Barra’s time at the top of G.M. has generally been seen as successful. She took over in 2013, steered the company through an ignition scandal, and nearly doubled profits in her first four years at the helm — though that growth came through cost controls, not increased revenue. The company’s stock has risen more than 30 percent this year, nearly double the gain in the S&P 500 but about half the rise in Ford’s shares over the same period.

G.M.’s sales last year were $122 billion, or about $30 billion lower than when Barra joined. The company’s new goal is to reach $280 billion of revenue in nine years. Wall Street analysts have projected that G.M.’s sales will rise to $175 billion by 2025, as compiled by the data service Sentieo. That path would leave the company about $50 billion short of its 2030 goal. And that goal is complicated by another company priority: G.M. said that it wanted to phase out sales of gas-powered vehicles, which comprise the bulk of its sales, by 2035.

[h=2]“We have to make agriculture sexy.”[/h]

— Xavier Niel, the French tech billionaire who is the main backer of Hectar, a start-up based on a century-old farm west of Paris. The company is using algorithms and robots to try to make farming better for the environment and more attractive to younger workers.

[h=2]Crypto regulation heats up[/h]

The wrangling over spending bills and debt-ceiling dramas may be generating the biggest headlines in Washington, but the race to regulate the fast-growing cryptocurrency industry is also ramping up. Here’s a tour of some of the key developments this week:

Activist groups target crypto’s environmental impact. Today, more than 70 nonprofit groups, including the Sierra Club, the Open Markets Institute and the Action Center on Race and the Economy, urged Congress to consider crypto’s energy use when writing new rules for the sector. “As you explore legislative and regulatory responses to ensure investor protection in the industry, it is critical that you also consider the financial stability risks that climate change presents,” they wrote in a letter shared exclusively with DealBook that took particular issue with many cryptocurrencies’ energy-intensive “mining” process.

Industry players make the case for balance. The venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz submitted a proposal to the Senate Banking Committee outlining its view on the future of digital assets and decentralized technology. The firm, which runs a big crypto fund, urged lawmakers to “ensure that the private sector can experiment and build” as it protects against “the real downside risks that might otherwise harm individuals.”

They also complain about burnout. Brian Armstrong, the C.E.O. of Coinbase, a large crypto exchange, tweeted yesterday that company chiefs in the U.S. were under too much pressure from officials, the news media and the public. He likened this to the crackdown on companies in China, “putting something that gets too successful in its place.”

Crypto notches a win. The S.E.C. approved Volt Equity’s exchange-traded fund that tracks companies whose values swing with Bitcoin prices, with an emphasis on firms that hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets. It’s not quite a pure Bitcoin E.T.F., but it brings the industry closer to that long-sought goal. Investors want “exposure to Bitcoin price movement,” Volt Equity’s Tad Park told DealBook, without necessarily buying crypto directly.

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[h=3]THE SPEED READ[/h]

Deals

Barry Diller’s Dotdash publishing unit agreed to buy the magazine giant Meredith, owner of People and of Better Homes & Gardens, for $2.7 billion. (NYT) Twitter will sell MoPub, a platform for selling mobile advertising that it bought eight years ago, to AppLovin for just over $1 billion. (NYT) Japan Post plans to sell $9 billion of shares, the final stage in a privatization process that began in 2005. (FT) Josh Harris, the co-founder of Apollo Global Management who was sidelined in a power struggle, sold another big chunk of shares in the firm. (Bloomberg)

Policy

The fix for Facebook starts with recognizing the social network’s original sin, Shira Ovide writes. (OnTech) “What a Trillion-Dollar Coin Can Teach Us.” (Times Opinion) President Biden and Xi Jinping of China will hold their first summit, a virtual meeting, before the end of the year. (NYT) Los Angeles will require proof of full coronavirus vaccination to enter many businesses, one of the strictest rules in the U.S. (NYT)

Best of the rest

The star tech investor Cathie Woods is relocating her firm, Ark Investment, from New York to Florida. (Bloomberg) How AT&T helped to build the far-right One America News Network. (Reuters) In the fifth week of the trial of Elizabeth Holmes, there were brief moments of drama amid long stretches of technical tedium. (NYT) “How Larry Fink Became King of Wall Street” (FT) The art of the “out of office” automated reply. (Economist)

Anna Schaverien contributed reporting.

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Andrew Ross Sorkin, Founder/Editor-at-Large, New York @andrewrsorkin

Jason Karaian, Editor, London @jkaraian

Sarah Kessler, Deputy Editor, Chicago @sarahfkessler

Stephen Gandel, News Editor, New York @stephengandel

Michael J. de la Merced, Reporter, London @m_delamerced

Lauren Hirsch, Reporter, New York @LaurenSHirsch

Ephrat Livni, Reporter, Washington D.C. @el72champs