Boz - I'm thinking about dumping some of the stocks I've made a profit on. I have a few that I'm down on that I'm iffy about keeping. I also have one (AGNC) that I'm down about 2% but it pays over $100/month dividend - I have about $13,000 in it and I'm fine w/ holding it.
I'm also holding SQQQ and I'm down about 50%. I figure at this point why sell? (this was a huge mistake, I didn't fully understand how this stock works).
Anyhow, what are your thoughts?
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Thanks Boz.
So for clarification - I should just hold SQQQ? Like I said, I've lost a ton (about 50% and everytime the NASDAQ goes up....it goes down). I can sell now and cut my losses, or just ride it out and see what happens?
I feel I've done great this year in the market....but so has most people, so I don't feel like I'm any sort of expert. I want to protect some of it though, so I'm willing to be more conservative. I guess we have to see where this new administration takes us. I'm sure they'll keep running up the national debt. But I'm also concerned w/ housing (as I'm selling my primary home this year and my vacation/airbnb property - and moving to Florida, and will likely rent when we get there....but I'm worried about the 1031 exchange also if I rent longer than 180 days).
Anyhow, a lot going on..... Thanks boz!
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CoachCB going to chime in here, sharing another viewpoint. Hope you dont have too much in that product.
As you know, sqqq is NOT a stock . It's a bear triple levered ETF, with the underlying being the qqq . So, if the qqq's are up 5% for the week, this product will be approx 3x down , that is DOWN 15% for the week. So, what is your outlook for the qqq's for 2021? IF the qqq's end up +10%, then your sqqq will be down another 30% .
its NOT intended for long term holding as it decays over time. Seriously, this product is for experienced traders . Using technical analysis for entries and exits and ALWAYS with a stop loss.
https://www.investopedia.com/articl...5/why-leveraged-etfs-are-not-longterm-bet.asp
food for thought;
when buying a stock/etf/commodity ask a few questions; trading and investing are entirely different animals
a) why are you buying it? is this a long term investment, something you'll add to during retraces? not a long term invesmtent and you're trading it for the short to mid term? what is the general market doing (a very bullish market like Dec/Nov makes anyone look like a genius )? what is its sector doing relative to the market? what is it doing relative to its sector ? etc..
b) IF you are trading the stock/etf, BEFORE you buy; where is yuor target price (TP)? where is your stop loss (SL)
there are NO long term succesful traders on planet earth that dont use stop losses . ZERO.
try to make your TP greater than your SL -- that is, if your SL is , say 2% (Risk per trade is 2% ) of your account , then have your TP at 1.5R at minimum . Puts the math in your favor
I'm also holding SQQQ and I'm down about 50%. I figure at this point why sell? (this was a huge mistake, I didn't fully understand how this stock works).
Anyhow, what are your thoughts?
............
Thanks Boz.
So for clarification - I should just hold SQQQ? Like I said, I've lost a ton (about 50% and everytime the NASDAQ goes up....it goes down). I can sell now and cut my losses, or just ride it out and see what happens?
I feel I've done great this year in the market....but so has most people, so I don't feel like I'm any sort of expert. I want to protect some of it though, so I'm willing to be more conservative. I guess we have to see where this new administration takes us. I'm sure they'll keep running up the national debt. But I'm also concerned w/ housing (as I'm selling my primary home this year and my vacation/airbnb property - and moving to Florida, and will likely rent when we get there....but I'm worried about the 1031 exchange also if I rent longer than 180 days).
Anyhow, a lot going on..... Thanks boz!
...............
CoachCB going to chime in here, sharing another viewpoint. Hope you dont have too much in that product.
As you know, sqqq is NOT a stock . It's a bear triple levered ETF, with the underlying being the qqq . So, if the qqq's are up 5% for the week, this product will be approx 3x down , that is DOWN 15% for the week. So, what is your outlook for the qqq's for 2021? IF the qqq's end up +10%, then your sqqq will be down another 30% .
its NOT intended for long term holding as it decays over time. Seriously, this product is for experienced traders . Using technical analysis for entries and exits and ALWAYS with a stop loss.
https://www.investopedia.com/articl...5/why-leveraged-etfs-are-not-longterm-bet.asp
food for thought;
when buying a stock/etf/commodity ask a few questions; trading and investing are entirely different animals
a) why are you buying it? is this a long term investment, something you'll add to during retraces? not a long term invesmtent and you're trading it for the short to mid term? what is the general market doing (a very bullish market like Dec/Nov makes anyone look like a genius )? what is its sector doing relative to the market? what is it doing relative to its sector ? etc..
b) IF you are trading the stock/etf, BEFORE you buy; where is yuor target price (TP)? where is your stop loss (SL)
there are NO long term succesful traders on planet earth that dont use stop losses . ZERO.
try to make your TP greater than your SL -- that is, if your SL is , say 2% (Risk per trade is 2% ) of your account , then have your TP at 1.5R at minimum . Puts the math in your favor
Short term always on the q's/ The vxx or vix even more so...and the two are not tied as one in movement both vix are option driven as much as anything... you'll see the sq up and the vix down on a lot of days...I hate playing the vix but it's like in game betting in my book.I've been lucky with it lately but that runs thin.
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DYPFWe played it right...
This is bad and big problem for me.. I'd almost say it would be better to just have a HK/China listing for BABA and get away from the US markets.. the US government is making this too hard..BABA data is limited here in the US, I don't totally get the crack down.
Bad move but whatever.. I'm so over the rhetoric..Ufffff I'm calling my broker today to see if I can move this to the HK markets..I'll let you know how it goes CB.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/us-weighs-adding-alibaba-tencent-to-china-stock-ban
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| Global Market Comments January 7, 2021 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (HOW TO HANDLE THE FRIDAY, JANUARY 15 OPTIONS EXPIRATION), (TSLA), (TLT), (WPM), (GOLD) 
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How to Handle the Friday, January 15 Options Expiration Followers of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader Alert Service have the good fortune to own TEN deep in-the-money options positions, all of which are profitable. Six of these expire in six trading days on Friday, January 15, and I just want to explain to the newbies how to best maximize their profits.These involve the following: (TLT) 1/$164-$167 put spread (TSLA) 1/$430-$460 call spread (TSLA) 1/$570-$600 call spread (WPM) 1/$39-$41 call spread (GOLD) 1/$21-$23 call spread (TSLA) 1/$830-$860 put spread Provided that we don’t have a huge selloff in gold, silver, or Tesla, or monster rallies in bonds or Tesla, all six of these positions will expire at their maximum profit point. So far, so good. The storming of Capital hill on Wednesday worked to the benefit of every one of these positions. Gold and silver took off, bonds stabilized, and Tesla ceased its heroic rally. I’ll do the math for you on our oldest and least liquid position, the Tesla January 15 $430-$460 call spread, which I initiated on December 10, 2020 and will definitely run into expiration. At the Wednesday high, it was an astonishing $315, or 68.47%, in-the-money. This is the biggest one-month stock gain I have seen in one of my positions in the 13-year history of this service. Your profit can be calculated as follows: Profit: $30.00 expiration value - $25.00 cost = $5.00 net profit (4 contracts X 100 contracts per option X $5.00 profit per options) = $2,000 or 20% in 18 trading days. Many of you have already emailed me asking what to do with these winning positions. The answer is very simple. You take your left hand, grab your right wrist, pull it behind your neck, and pat yourself on the back for a job well done. You don’t have to do anything. Your broker (are they still called that?) will automatically use your long position to cover your short position, canceling out the total holdings. The entire profit will be credited to your account on Monday morning January 18 and the margin freed up. Some firms charge you a modest $10 or $15 fee for performing this service. If you don’t see the cash show up in your account on Monday, get on the blower immediately and find it. Although the expiration process is now supposed to be fully automated, occasionally machines do make mistakes. Better to sort out any confusion before losses ensue. If you want to wimp out and close the position before the expiration, it may be expensive to do so. You can probably unload them pennies below their maximum expiration value. Keep in mind that the liquidity in the options market understandably disappears, and the spreads substantially widen, when a security has only hours, or minutes until expiration on Friday January 15. So, if you plan to exit, do so well before the final expiration at the Friday market close. This is known in the trade as the “expiration risk.” If for some reason your short position in your spread gets “called away,” don’t worry. Just call your broker and instruct them to exercise your long option position to cover your short option position. That gets you out of your position a few days early at your maximum profit point. If your broker tells you to sell your remaining long and cover your short separately in the market, don’t. That makes money for your broker, but not you. Do what I say, and then fire your broker and close your account because they are giving you terrible advice. I’ve seen this happen many times among my followers. One way or the other, I’m sure you’ll do OK, as long as I am looking over your shoulder, as I will be, always. Think of me as your trading guardian angel. I am going to hang back and wait for good entry points before jumping back in. It’s all about keeping that “Buy low, sell high” thing going. I’m looking to cherry-pick my new positions going into the next month end. Take your winnings and go out and buy yourself a well-earned dinner. Just make sure it’s take-out. I want you to stick around. Well done, and on to the next trade 
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Quote of the Day“You want to be in the stock in the second inning of the ballgame, and out in the seventh. That could be 30 years,” said legendary value stock manager Peter Lynch. 
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For just a general look at the world and people there is one thing that I think runs true......people don't like change. Doesn't matter what it is. One of the best ways to make money is to look at companies that are in new technologies that will soon become the norm. I tell my aging friends that driverless cars are on there way and of course they think it will never happen. Are you kidding me? The aging population is going to use it to go to their grandkids baseball games. To have mobility. Paying an extra $3,000 for this would be the first option you would add to the car. Businesses will adopt it first because it will make them money. This is just my example of looking into the future for investments.
I think battery technology will be huge. To store energy from renewable sources and things like electric cars. The one downside is the demand for natural resources this is going to cause. Looking at buying assets that are used in the batteries will see an increase in value as the demand increases.
On this same thought process there will be applications where alternatives to batteries will make sense. It will be hydrogen cell technology. I have been following that industry for 20 years now. Its day in the sun is coming. It was a nice day today to see the jump in PLUG (it is the one I own). I think it is only just starting. Nikola stock has the right idea but they are the wrong messenger. Someone else is going to execute in that space and could be the next Tesla.
Here is an article that talks a bit about it:
https://investorplace.com/hypergrow...n-stocks-to-buy-for-the-11-trillion-breakout/
I think battery technology will be huge. To store energy from renewable sources and things like electric cars. The one downside is the demand for natural resources this is going to cause. Looking at buying assets that are used in the batteries will see an increase in value as the demand increases.
On this same thought process there will be applications where alternatives to batteries will make sense. It will be hydrogen cell technology. I have been following that industry for 20 years now. Its day in the sun is coming. It was a nice day today to see the jump in PLUG (it is the one I own). I think it is only just starting. Nikola stock has the right idea but they are the wrong messenger. Someone else is going to execute in that space and could be the next Tesla.
Here is an article that talks a bit about it:
https://investorplace.com/hypergrow...n-stocks-to-buy-for-the-11-trillion-breakout/
Up another 9%...Unreal and the best performing stock I've owned over the past 6 months.
170.75...No stopping synthetic DNA..300 dollar stock eventually but buying it after the run...?
Heading to Big Sky Montana for the week of skiing tomorrow and limited market watching for me.
Enjoy fellas
BABA and DJ are about to run..Getting a change in the US government will be a huge lift to Chinese equities .
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Thanks, Big Sky is cool..Low key. got a ski in ski out on the slopes..we actually ski down to lift from this joint...I like it better than Jackson hole more terrane less people and its steep. Got to check it out sometime.
https://bigskyresort.com/webcams
Where do you go in Tahoe? We had Ikons and Epics last year...Skied Squaw, Northstar, Alpine two years ago...I do love Heavenly and Kirkwood is the best IMO. Last year we were going to Tahoe but flipped plans after the poor totals early... Tahoe got pounded the week C19 shut it down..40 inches in one dump.
I'm pretty excited to go...Love the drive.
We may do a day on the way at Pebble creek near Lave hot springs Idaho gotta check out that place./ 3 lifts it's tough.
https://pebblecreekskiarea.com/mountain-statistics/
anyway... have a profitable week CB.
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| Global Market Comments January 8, 2021 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (JANUARY 6 BIWEEKLY STRATEGY WEBINAR Q&A), (TSLA), (SQM), (GLD), (SLV), (GOLD), (WPM), (TLT), (FCX), (IBB), (XOM), (UPS), (FDX), (ZM), (DOCU), (VZ), (T), (RTX), (UT), (NOC), (FXE), (FXY), (FXA), (UUP) 
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January 6 Biweekly Strategy Webinar Q&A Below please find subscribers’ Q&A for the January 6 Mad Hedge Fund Trader Global Strategy Webinar broadcast from Incline Village, NV.Q: Any thoughts on lithium now that Tesla (TSLA) is doing so well? A: Lithium stocks like Sociedad Qimica Y Minera (SQM) have been hot because of their Tesla connection. The added value in lithium mining is minimal. It basically depends on the amount of toxic waste you’re allowed to dump to maintain profit margins—nowhere close to added value compared to Tesla. However, in a bubble, you can't underestimate the possibility that money will pour into any sector massively at any time, and the entire electric car sector has just exploded. Many of these ETFs or SPACs have gone up 10 times, so who knows how far that will go. Long term I expect Tesla to wildly outperform any lithium play you can find for me. I’m working on a new research piece that raises my long-term target from $2,500 to $10,000, or 12.5X from here, Tesla becomes a Dow stock, and Elon Musk becomes the richest man in the world. Q: Won’t rising interest rates hurt gold (GLD)? Or are inflation and a weak dollar more important? A: You nailed it. As long as the rate rise is slow and doesn't get above 1.25% or 1.50% on the ten-year, gold will continue to rally for fears of inflation. Also, if you get Bitcoin topping out at any time, you will have huge amounts of money pour out of Bitcoin into the precious metals. We saw that happen for a day on Monday. So that is your play on precious metals. Silver (SLV) will do even better. Q: What are your thoughts on TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities) as a hedge? A: TIPS has been a huge disappointment over the years because the rate of rise in inflation has been so slow that the TIPS really didn’t give you much of a profit opportunity. The time to own TIPS is when you think that a very large increase in inflation is imminent. That is when TIPS really takes off like a rocket, which is probably a couple of years off. Q: Will Freeport McMoRan (FCX) continue to do well in this environment? A: Absolutely, yes. We are in a secular decade-long commodity bull market. Any dip you get in Freeport you should buy. The last peak in the previous cycle ten years ago was $50, so there's another potential double in (FCX). I know people have been playing the LEAPS in the calendars since it was $4 a share in March and they have made absolute fortunes in the last 9 months. Q: Is it a good time to take out a bear put debit spread in Tesla? A: Actually, if you go way out of the money, something like a $1,000-$900 vertical bear put spread, with the 76% implied volatility in the options market one week out, you probably will make some pretty decent money. I bet you could get $1,500 from that. However, everyone who has gone to short Tesla has had their head handed to them. So, it's a high risk, high return trade. Good thought, and I will actually run the numbers on that. However, the last time I went short on Tesla, I got slaughtered. Q: Any thoughts on why biotech (IBB) has been so volatile lately? A: Fears about what the Biden government will do to regulate the healthcare and biotech industry is a negative; however, we’re entering a golden age for biotech invention and innovation which is extremely positive. I bet the positives outweigh the negatives in the long term. Q: Oil is now over $50; is it a good time to buy Exxon Mobil (XOM)? A: Absolutely not. It was a good time to buy when it was at $30 dollars and oil was at negative $37 in the futures market. Now is when you want to start thinking about shorting (XOM) because I think any rally in energy is short term in nature. If you’re a fast trader then you probably can make money going long and then short. But most of you aren't fast traders, you’re long-term investors, and I would avoid it. By the way, it’s actually now illegal for a large part of institutional America to touch energy stocks because of the ESG investing trend, and also because it’s the next American leather. It’s the next former Dow stock that’s about to completely disappear. I believe in the all-electric grid by 2030 and oil doesn't fit anywhere in that, unless they get into the windmill business or something. Q: With Amazon buying 11 planes, should we be going short United Parcel Service (UPS) and FedEx (FDX)? A: Absolutely not. The market is growing so fast as a result of an unprecedented economic recovery, it will grow enough to accommodate everyone. And we have already had huge performance in (UPS); we actually caught some of this in one of our trade alerts. So again, this is also a stay-at-home stock. These stocks benefited hugely when the entire US economy essentially went home to go to work. Q: Should we keep our stay-at-home stocks like DocuSign (DOCU), Zoom (ZM), and UPS (UPS)? A: They are way overdue for profit-taking and we will probably see some of that; but long term, staying at home is a permanent fixture of the US economy now. Up to 30% of the people who were sent to work at home are never coming back. They like it, and companies are cutting their salaries and increasing their profits. So, stay at home is overdone for the short term, but I think they’ll keep going long term. You do have Zoom up 10 times in a year from when we recommended it, it’s up 20 times from its bottom, DocuSign is up like 600%. So way overdone, in bubble-type territory for all of these things. Q: Are telecom stocks like Verizon (VZ) and AT&T (T) safe here? A: Actually they are; they will benefit from any increase in infrastructure spending. They do have the 5G trend as a massive tailwind, increasing the demand for their services. They’re moving into streaming, among other things, and they had very high dividends. AT&T has a monster 7% dividend, so if that's what you’re looking for, we’re kind of at the bottom of the range on (T), so I would get involved there. Q: Should we sell all our defense stocks with the Biden administration capping the defense budget? A: I probably would hold them for the long term—Biden won’t be president forever—but short term the action is just going to be elsewhere, and the stocks are already reflecting that. So, Raytheon (RTX), United Technologies (UT), and Northrop Grumman (NOC), all of those, you don’t really want to play here. Yes, they do have long term government contracts providing a guaranteed income stream, but the market is looking for more immediate profits, or profit growth like you have been getting in a lot of the domestic stocks. So, I expect a long sideways move in the defense sector for years. Time to become a pacifist. Q: Is it safe to buy hotels like Marriott (MAR), Hyatt (H), and Hilton (HLT)? A: Yes, unlike the airlines and cruise lines, which have massive amounts of debt, the hotels from a balance sheet point of view actually have come through this pretty well. I expect a decent recovery in the shares, probably a double. Remember you’re not going to see any return of business travel until at least 2022 or 2023, and that was the bread and butter for these big premium hotel chains. They will recover, but that will take a bit longer. Q: How about online booking companies like Expedia (EXPE) and Booking Holdings Inc, owner of booking.com, Open Table, and Priceline (BKNG)? A: Absolutely; these are all recovery stocks and being online companies, their overhead is minimal and easily adjustable. They essentially had to shut down when global travel stopped, but they don’t have massive debts like airlines and cruise lines. I actually have a research piece in the works telling you to buy the peripheral travel stocks like Expedia (EXPE), Booking Holdings (BKNG), Live Nation (LYV), Madison Square Garden (MSGE) and, indirectly, casinos (WYNN), (MGM) and Uber (UBER). Q: What about Regeneron (REGN) long term? A: They really need to invent a new drug to cure a new disease, or we have to cure COVID so all the non-COVID biotech stocks can get some attention. The problem for Regeneron is that when you cure a disease, you wipe out the market for that drug. That happened to Gilead Sciences (GILD) with hepatitis and it’s happening with Regeneron now with Remdesivir as the pandemic peaks out and goes away. Q: What about Chinese stocks (FXI)? A: Absolutely yes; I think China will outperform the US this year, especially now that the new Biden administration will no longer incite trade wars with China. And that is of course the biggest element of the emerging markets ETF (EEM). Q: Will manufacturing jobs ever come back to the US? A: Yes, when American workers are happy to work for $3/hour and dump unions, which is what they’re working for in China today. Better that America focuses on high added value creation like designing operating systems—new iPhones, computers, electric cars, and services like DocuSign, Zoom—new everything, and leave all the $3/hour work to the Chinese. Q: What about long-term LEAPS? A: The only thing I would do long term LEAPS in today would be gold (GOLD) and silver miners (WPM). They are just coming out of a 5-month correction and are looking to go to all-time highs. Q: What about your long-term portfolio? A: I should be doing my long-term portfolio update in 2 weeks, which is much deserved since we have had massive changes in the US economy and market since the last one 6 months ago. Q: Do you have any suggestions for futures? A: I suggest you go to your online broker and they will happily tell you how to do futures for free. We don’t do futures recommendations because only about 25% of our followers are in the futures market. What they do is take my trade alerts and use them for market timing in the futures market and these are the people who get 1,000% a year returns. Every year, we get several people who deliver those types of results. Q: Will people go back to work in the office? A: People mostly won’t go back to the office. The ones who do go back probably won't until the end of the summer, like August/September, when more than half the US population has the Covid-19 vaccination. By the way, getting a vaccine shot will become mandatory for working in an office, as it will in order to do anything going forward, including getting on any international flights. Q: What is the best way to short the US dollar? A: Buy the (FXE), the (FXY), the (FXA), or the (UUP) basket. Q: Silver LEAP set up? A: I would do something like a $32-$35 vertical bull call spread on options expiring in 2023, or as long as possible, and that increases the chance you’ll get a profit. You should be able to get a 500% profit on that LEAP if silver keeps going up. Q: What about agricultural commodities? A: Ah yes, I remember orange juice futures well, from Trading Places, where I also once made a killing myself. Something about frozen iguanas falling out of trees was the tip-off. We don’t cover the ags anymore, which I did for many years. They are basically going down 90% of the time because of the increasing profitability and efficiency of US farmers. Except for the rare weather disaster or an out of the blue crop disease, the ags are a loser’s game. Q: Can we view these slides? A: Yes, we load these up on the website within two hours. If you need help finding it, just send an email or text to our ever loyal and faithful Filomena at support@madhedgefundtrader.com and she will guide you. Q: Do you have concerns about Democrats regulating bitcoin? A: Yes, I would say that is definitely a risk for Bitcoin. It is still a wild west right now and there are massive amounts of theft going on. It is a controlled market, with bitcoin miners able to increase the total number of points at any time on a whim. Good Luck and Stay Healthy John Thomas CEO & Publisher The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader 
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Quote of the Day“If you can’t convince an 8-year-old why you own this thing, you probably shouldn’t own it” said legendary value stock manager Peter Lynch. 
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