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AVDL...

One weird anomaly in FDA paper work you sometimes see...Commonly you see a pop in price when a company announces FDA paper work being completed witch AVDL announced this AM..Heres the weird part..Not always but often you'll see a bigger pop once the FDA announces they've received that paperwork..

Takes a few days up to a few weeks depending on the clarity...Sorta wonder if we see that situation here as many watch the FDA and not individual companies, it should push this above 8 as the filing signals real progress in the company progression toward approval...Buying on the dip here for that eventual announcement from the FDAs side.

Hold Hold Hold.
 

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I added some shares today of ADVL when it dropped. I'm up to 350 shares. Is there a sell point for this Boz?
 

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I think JAZZ jumps these guys sooner than later, it's vital to the JAZZ bottom line 1.6 billion in sales on Xyrem , AVDLs FT218 if not acquired means big trouble to the JAZZ bottom line and just having ft218 as a threat keeps JAZZ undervalued .Keeping the franchise is huge as stated below. It's one you're going to need to hold for a little while but the flip might be outstanding.
L
ook at the CPXX deal a few years ago with Jazz..they didn't wait to buy CPXX on an FDA approval for 1.56 billion .. I think they'll do it again here with AVDL pre approval.



"Somebody asked me what acquiring AVDL looks like from JAZZ’s perspective. Well, I believe an obvious baseline is JAZZ can pay $30 and good good accretion and IRR on the $500-750M of peak rev that we can assume AVDL will get to on its own. But JAZZ gets so much more.. once thy are aligned, they can push for faster market adoption and get another $500M of Xyrem rev moved to FT218 which would help extend the franchise. They can also target the market expansion opportunity to people who don’t take Xyrem due to dosing challenges and add another $500m-$1b of rev. They could also work to develop a once nightly low sodium version that they will get additional patent life on. They can also do studies to move FT218 or once nightly low sodium into idiopathic hypersonic. The biggest reason JAZZ trades at a low multiple is concern around patent cliffs on the existing drugs. By merging with AVadel, jazz would grow its revenue opportunity and dramatically lengthen the paten life of its drug and enable the company to get a real multiple. Jazz investors would celebrate acquiring AVDL at $30 by sending the stock up".
 

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I added some shares today of ADVL when it dropped. I'm up to 350 shares. Is there a sell point for this Boz?


One thing about this stock it's floated between the mid 4's to 8 bucks, it'll have few more dips and pop before maturity..Typical of maturing Pharma companies....It's no doubt the toughest part of Pharma investing..the holding/ waiting isn't a problem here.
 

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Bozzie:

In the solar world you have panels which produce power in direct current (D/C) and you have inverter which inverts the power to alternating current (A/C). There are 100's of panel manufacturers but only a handful of inverter manufacturers. Probably 6 or 7 years ago I recommended SEDG an inverter company. I have recommended multiple times here. It was probably in the teens somewhere initially and is over $300 today. Stock has been a rock star.

Solar Edge runs a bunch of panels at once. Another inverter is one that is put behind each panel. Called a micro inverter. Enphase (ENPH) is a big player in that market. They had reliability issues and might have been close to going under. They have made a strong recovery.

SolarEdge makes residential size inverters along with commercial sizes. Enphase is mostly a residential player in the market. You could see a company like Enphase partner up with a panel manufacturer and install the microinverter at the factory with cheap labor and thus reduce the install time in the field.

The bigger things to know about the industry is the potential growth. The residential market is about 100 times as large as the commercial market. Additionally the new administration will offer pass more green friendly deals. One that passed the house and senate was not signed by the Trump. Solar is one of the largest growing fields in the country. They are above average paying jobs and the are in every state. With that said I think you will continue to see solar boom and the companies that make products for the industry. If the democrats win Georgia it could be an even bigger bump.

Take a look at SEDG and ENPH.

Lastly on the industry and I dont know how to capitalize on this....maybe someone else can do research. The latest trend is bi-facial panels. Basically absorbs sun either hitting it on the front or sun that misses the panel and reflects up and hits it on the back. You can see 20-40% more production on a ground mounted system using a bifacial panel. So what is different? They put glass on the front and the back of the panel versus a traditional panel only has glass on the front. The result is there is a high demand for bifacial panels. They use more glass and now there is a shortage of glass. Not sure who the glass manufacturers are but there is definitely a demand.

Northern Star
 

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Bozzie:

In the solar world you have panels which produce power in direct current (D/C) and you have inverter which inverts the power to alternating current (A/C). There are 100's of panel manufacturers but only a handful of inverter manufacturers. Probably 6 or 7 years ago I recommended SEDG an inverter company. I have recommended multiple times here. It was probably in the teens somewhere initially and is over $300 today. Stock has been a rock star.

Solar Edge runs a bunch of panels at once. Another inverter is one that is put behind each panel. Called a micro inverter. Enphase (ENPH) is a big player in that market. They had reliability issues and might have been close to going under. They have made a strong recovery.

SolarEdge makes residential size inverters along with commercial sizes. Enphase is mostly a residential player in the market. You could see a company like Enphase partner up with a panel manufacturer and install the microinverter at the factory with cheap labor and thus reduce the install time in the field.

The bigger things to know about the industry is the potential growth. The residential market is about 100 times as large as the commercial market. Additionally the new administration will offer pass more green friendly deals. One that passed the house and senate was not signed by the Trump. Solar is one of the largest growing fields in the country. They are above average paying jobs and the are in every state. With that said I think you will continue to see solar boom and the companies that make products for the industry. If the democrats win Georgia it could be an even bigger bump.

Take a look at SEDG and ENPH.

Lastly on the industry and I dont know how to capitalize on this....maybe someone else can do research. The latest trend is bi-facial panels. Basically absorbs sun either hitting it on the front or sun that misses the panel and reflects up and hits it on the back. You can see 20-40% more production on a ground mounted system using a bifacial panel. So what is different? They put glass on the front and the back of the panel versus a traditional panel only has glass on the front. The result is there is a high demand for bifacial panels. They use more glass and now there is a shortage of glass. Not sure who the glass manufacturers are but there is definitely a demand.

Northern Star

Thanks Northern star ...
Great info..I'm doing a dive in to both companies this weekend.
Good to see you back again Nice call on SEDG what a chart.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SEDG/
 

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Yesterdays MH


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Global Market Comments
December 17, 2020
Fiat Lux

FEATURED TRADE:
(PLEASE SIGN UP FOR MY FREE TEXT ALERT SERVICE NOW),
(BIDDING MORE FOR THE STARS)

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PLEASE Sign Up for My Free Text Alert Service Now!

Early last year, my customer support office spent the entire day taking calls from readers who missed my Trade Alert to buy the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) March 2019 $177-$180 in-the-money vertical BEAR PUT spread at $2.40 or best. A few days later it became a $4,000 profit.
The bond market completely fell apart afterwards, taking the spread up from $2.40 to $2.70 within minutes.

And I should warn you, this kind of instant blowout result is not unusual at the Mad hedge Fund Trader, as long time followers of my service will tell you.

Having Trade Alerts that move so fast into the money is a good problem to have.

Subscribers to the Text Alert Service received messages on their cell phones within seconds worldwide, and thus were able to act immediately on my perfectly-timed Trade Alerts.

Every time I see this happen, I am amazed that I lived this long to see this technology develop. It’s all really great…. when it works.

This eliminates frustrating delays caused by traffic surges on the Internet itself, and by your local server. Because our email application, Aweber Solutions, is unable to invest fast enough to keep up with the growth of their own business we are encountering more frequent delays in our emails (see messages below).

To sign up for the Trade Alert Service, please email Filomena at support@madhedgefundtrader.com.

Time is of the essence in volatile markets. Individual traders need to grab every advantage they can. This is an important one.

Please note that subscribers of the Newsletter-only service need not sign up for Text Alert.

Good luck and good trading.

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[h=2]Hook Me Up to John Thomas[/h]​


Bidding More For the Stars

The stock market has turned into the real estate market, where everyone is afraid to sell for fear of being unable to find a replacement. Will it next turn into the Bitcoin market, which has gone ballistic?
Risk assets everywhere are now facing a good news glut.

My 2020 market top target of 30,000 for the Dow Average has come and gone.

This year’s price action really gives you the feeling of an approaching short term blow off-market top. If Covid-19 crashed the market, will the vaccine kill the recovery?

A few years ago, I went to a charity fundraiser at San Francisco’s priciest jewelry store, Shreve & Co., where the well-heeled men bid for dates with the local high society beauties, dripping in diamonds and Channel No. 5.

Amply fueled with Dom Perignon champagne, I jumped into a spirited bidding war over one of the Bay Area’s premier hotties, who shall remain nameless. Suffice to say, she is now married to a well-known tech titan and has a local sports stadium named after her.

Obviously, I didn’t work hard enough.

The bids soared to $27,000, $28,000, $29,000.

After all, it was for a good cause. But when it hit $30,000, I suddenly developed a severe case of lockjaw. Later, the sheepish winner with a rampant case of buyer’s remorse came to me and offered his date back to me for $24,000. I said, “no thanks.” $23,000, $22,000, $21,000?

I passed.

The altitude of the stock market right now reminds me of that evening.

If you rode the S&P 500 (SPX) from 700 to 3,700 and the Dow Average (INDU) from 7,000 to 30,000, why sweat trying to eke out a few more basis points, especially when the risk/reward ratio sucks so badly, as it does now?

And if there was ever an excuse to take a break, it is my blistering 2020 12,000-point rally off the March bottom.

I realize that many of you are not hedge fund managers and that running a prop desk, mutual fund, 401k, pension fund, or day trading account has its own demands.

But let me quote what my favorite Chinese general, Deng Xiaoping, once told me in person: “There is a time to fish, and a time to hang your nets out to dry. You don’t have to chase every trade.

At least then, I’ll have plenty of dry powder for when the window of opportunity reopens for business. So, while I’m mending my nets, I’ll be building new lists of trades for you to strap on when the sun, moon, and stars align once again.

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[h=2]What Am I Bid?[/h]​


Quote of the Day

“In the next recession, the US will be the worst-performing stock market in the world. We won’t see new highs again in my lifetime,” said Doubleline Capital’s Jeffrey Gundlach.
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Good stuff - I've sold out of just about everything right now. I'm ready to jump if the market pulls back at all.
 

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Good stuff - I've sold out of just about everything right now. I'm ready to jump if the market pulls back at all.


I'm out about 40% and selling stuff that's run too much..TWST..but it's moving again sold a lot at 147.00..I want this thing to dump worst than anything so I can buy more on the cheap.

MH weed stocks..I don't play them but I'll occasionally puff puff pass with friends.


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Global Market Comments
December 18, 2020
Fiat Lux

FEATURED TRADE:
(HOW “HIGH” CAN MARIJUANA STOCKS GO?)
(TLRY), (CGC), (TOKE)
(TESTIMONIAL)

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How “High” Can Marijuana Stocks Go?

I called one of my long-time northern Nevada clients the other day to find out why he hadn’t renewed his subscription.He told me he was quitting the stock market for good and going into the marijuana business. There were no values to be had in stocks anymore and fortunes were to be made growing pot on an industrial scale.

Then, what I learned was astonishing.

In the last year, marijuana cultivation in Nevada has soared from 1,000 to 5,000 acres. The number of licensed growers has rocketed from 11 to 220. The industry now injects $50 million a year into the Reno economy. You can’t go anywhere in town without running into a pot shop.

A big impetus was the passage of the 2018 US farm bill which largely decriminalized marijuana at the federal level. States have been legalizing weed for a decade. Local banks are now allowed to accept the proceeds of marijuana sales without getting hit with money laundering charges.

And here’s the real shocker. Pot growers can now get federal crop insurance for growing weed, eliminating much of the risk for farmers!Industry associations expect marijuana to become a $25 billion a year industry by 2023. It’s all proof that if you live long enough, you see everything.

Marijuana is actually quite hard to grow. Not only do fields have to be weeded every day, requiring a large labor input, marijuana is unusually sensitive to literally hundreds of plant viruses. One virus can wipe out an entire crop in three days.

The opioid epidemic has become a major factor in the explosive growth of the pot industry. Thanks to crackdowns at the federal and state level, it is almost impossible to get Vicodin any longer. In Nevada, you are tracked like a dope dealer, requiring monthly urine tests to prove you’re actually using and not selling it.

However, the pain is still there. As the baby boomer generation ages (boomers are now 58-74), arthritis is becoming rampant, as are other painful maladies. Since marijuana research has been a career-killer for scientists for 100 years, very little is known about the potential benefits. Today, it is being applied to migraine headaches, aching joints, and chemotherapy (it’s a great appetite builder).

When the state of Colorado legalized pot a decade ago, every family in the United States with a child afflicted by certain types of juvenile epilepsy moved there. It was the only cure.

Early during the marijuana boom, I met with the CEO of Tilray (TLRY), the largest publicly listed marijuana company, to see if there was a real trade there.

There wasn’t.

All I heard was pie in the sky predictions, rosy forecasts, and unrealistic business models. What he didn’t mention is that the listed companies still suffer from massive competition from the black market, where prices are 40% lower (it’s tax free).

I ran a mile, deciding instead to buy more Apple (AAPL) and Tesla (TSLA). That worked. The market has heartily agreed with my analysis, taking (TLRY) down a gut-punching 98% since that meeting. Nice miss!

I talked to my own doctor to see if there was any value in the hundreds of the marijuana-based medicinal products now flooding the market. His assessment was that most products were so diluted that it was impossible to assess whether the active ingredient in marijuana, CDB, or cannabidiol, was effective or not. Some contained little more than green food coloring.

We may not know the true effects of CBD for years until years of research has taken place, which is only just now getting started.

As for the public investment opportunities in marijuana, it’s another one of those industries where it’s better to use the product than buy the stock.

Avoid pot stocks like a bad trip.


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Investment Opportunity?



Testimonial

Hey John,Hope you’re doing well.
Quick question: I have $500,000 on the sidelines reserved for Tesla (TSLA) investment. I have been waiting for a correction, too long maybe. Any argument to keep waiting?

By the way, I’m thanking you again for my $300,000 investment in Apple (AAPL) as encouraged by you, which is now worth $2.2 million.

Jay
Greensboro,
North Carolina

Answer: Tesla is likely to see a selloff after it joins the S&P 500 on Monday, December 21. All of the buying for the past six weeks, or $250, has been driven by this one event. Tesla has a long history of 40% corrections after key announcements so I would look to get back in then. Otherwise, keep doing the deep-in-the-money call spreads that I have, made possible by the extremely high 96% implied volatility in the options market. That is four times the (SPX) volatility.


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Quote of the Day

“In the next recession, the US will be the worst-performing stock market in the world. We won’t see new highs again in my lifetime,” said Doubleline Capital’s Jeffrey Gundlach.
crash.png






 

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Global Market Comments
December 10, 2020
Fiat Lux
FEATURED TRADE:(MY 20 RULES FOR TRADING IN 2021)
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My 20 Rules for Trading in 2021

Nothing like starting the new year with going back to basics and reviewing the rules that worked so well for us in 2020. Call this the refresher course for Trading 101.
I usually try to catch three or four trend changes a year, which might generate 100-200 trades, and often come in frenzied bursts.

Since I am one of the greatest tightwads that ever walked the planet, I only like to buy positions when we are at the height of despair and despondency, and traders are raining off the Golden Gate Bridge like a winter downpour.

Similarly, I only like to sell when the markets are tripping on steroids and ecstasy and are convinced that they can live forever.


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Some 99% of the time, the markets are in the middle, and there is nothing to do but deep research and looking for the next trade. That is the purpose of this letter.

Over the five decades that I have been trading, I have learned a number of trends and true rules which have saved my bacon countless times. I will share them with you today.

1) Don’t over trade. This is the number one reason why individual investors lose money. Look at your trades of the past year and apply the 90/10 rule. Dump the least profitable 90% and watch your performance skyrocket. Then aim for that 10%. Overtrading is a great early retirement plan for your broker, not you.

2) Always use stops. Risk control is the measure of the good hedge fund trader. If you lose all your capital on the lemons, you can’t play when the great trades set up. Consider cash as having an option value.

3) Don’t forget to sell. Date, don’t marry your positions. Remember, hogs get fed and pigs get slaughtered. My late mentor, Barton Biggs, told me to always leave the last 10% of a move for the next guy.

4) You don’t have to be a genius to play this game. If that was required, Wall Street would have run out of players a long time ago.

If you employ risk control and stops, then you can be wrong 40% of the time, and still make a living. That’s a little better than a coin toss. If you are wrong only 30% of the time, you can make millions.

If you are wrong a scant 20% of the time, you are heading a trading desk at Goldman Sachs. If you are wrong a scant 10% of the time, you are running a $20 billion hedge fund that the public only hears about when you pay $100 million for a pickled shark at a modern art auction.

If someone says they are never wrong, as is often claimed on the Internet, run a mile, because it is impossible. By the way, I was wrong 15% of the time in 2013. That’s what you’re paying for.

5) This is hard work. Trading attracts a lot of wide-eyed, naïve, but lazy people because it appears so easy from the outside. You buy a stock, watch it go up, and make money. How hard is that? The reality is that successful investing requires twice as much work as a normal job. The more research you put into a trade, the more comfortable you will become, and the more profitable it will be. That’s what this letter is for.

6) Don’t chase the market. If you do, it will turn back and bite you. Wait for it to come to you. If you miss the train, there will be another one along in minutes, hours, days, weeks, or months. Patience is a virtue.

7) Limit Your Losses. When I put on a position, I calculate how much I am willing to lose to keep it. I then put a stop just below there. If I get triggered, I just walk away. Emotion never enters the equation. Only enter a trade when the risk/ reward is in your favor. You can start at 3:1. That means only risk a dollar to potentially make three.

8) Don’t confuse a bull market with brilliance. I am not smart, just old as dirt.

9) Tape this quote from the great economist and early hedge fund trader of the 1930s, John Maynard Keynes, to your computer monitor: "Markets can remain illogical longer than you can remain solvent." Hang around long enough, and you will see this proven time and again (ten-year Treasuries at 0.32%?!).

10) Don’t believe the media. I know, I used to be one of them. There is a reason why they are talking heads and not billionaire traders. Look for the hard data, the numbers, and you’ll see that often the talking heads, the paid industry apologists, and politicians don’t know what they are talking about (the Gulf oil spill will create a dead zone for decades?).

Average out all the public commentary, and half are bullish and half bearish at any given time. The problem is that they never tell you which one is right (that is my job). When they all go one way, the markets usually go the opposite direction.


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11) When you are running a long/short portfolio, 80% of your time is spent managing the shorts. If you don’t want to do the work, then cash beats a short any day of the week.

12) Sometimes the conventional wisdom is right.

13) Invest like a fundamentalist, execute like a technical analyst. This is what all the pros do.

14) Use technical analysis only, and you will buy every rally, sell every dip, and end up broke. That said, learn what an “outside reversal” is, and who the hell is that Italian guy, Leonardo Fibonacci.

15) The simpler a market approach, the better it works. Everyone talks about “buy low and sell high”, but few actually do it. All black boxes eventually blow up, if they were ever there in the first place.

16) Markets are made up of people. Understand and anticipate how they think, and you will know what the markets are going to do.

17) Understand what information is in the market and what isn’t and you will make more money.

18) Do the hard trade, the one that everyone tells you that you are “Mad” to do. If you add a position and then throw up on your shoes afterwards, then you know you’ve done the right thing. This is why people started calling me “Mad” 40 years ago. (What? Tech stocks were a huge buy the first week of January?).

19) If you are trying to get out of a hole, the first thing to do is quit digging and throw away the shovel. Sell everything. A blank position sheet can be invigorating ad illuminating.

20) Making money in the market is an unnatural act, and fights against the tide of evolution.

We humans are predators and hunters evolved to track game on the horizon of an African savanna. Modern humans are maybe 5 million years old, but civilization has been around for only 10,000 years.

Our brains have not had time to make the adjustment. In the market, this means that if a stock has gone up, you believe it will continue to do so.

This is why market tops and bottoms see volume spikes. To make money, you have to go against these innate instincts.

Some people are born with this ability, while others can only learn it through decades of training. I am in the latter group.



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Great Hunter, Lousy Trader


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Quote of the Day"Bonds are priced artificially because you've got some guy buying tens of billions of dollars worth a month. That will change at some point, and when it does, people are going to lose a lot of money," said Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett.

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any newbies into the trading world? read the above not once, not twice .....read it slowly . This mother fukcer is trying to help. Laughable is the projection that trading is a losing game cause the 'evidence ' supports such. As the author notes, our minds arent wired to play the game , few r born with the intellectual /emotional intelligence to win , with emphasis on emotional ..sooner understood the better

bozzie, great thread , best wishes
 

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any newbies into the trading world? read the above not once, not twice .....read it slowly . This mother fukcer is trying to help. Laughable is the projection that trading is a losing game cause the 'evidence ' supports such. As the author notes, our minds arent wired to play the game , few r born with the intellectual /emotional intelligence to win , with emphasis on emotional ..sooner understood the better

bozzie, great thread , best wishes

Thanks Ricboff..you're obviously well versed in the market just looking at your last few posts here..
I'd agree this might have been one of the most valuable MH posts yet...Great management skills advise in that dispatch.

I've trimmed over the past few months down to about 50% of what I held in a few equities BABA/LLNW being the exception in the account posted here.

Good read.

Street and World Markets

Bloomberg NewsDecember 19, 2020, 1:00 PM PST

  • Mania is laid bare in IPO surge, options boom and crypto fever
  • Some strategists warn risk-taking excess is a signal to sell
LISTEN TO ARTICLE

5:5
Animal spirits are famously running wild across Wall Street, but crunch the numbers and this bull market is even crazier than it seems.


Global stocks are now worth around $100 trillion. American companies have raised a record $175 billion in public listings. Some $3 trillion of corporate bonds are trading with negative yields. All the while the virus spreads, the economic cycle stays on life-support and businesses get thrashed by fresh lockdowns.
Spurred by endless monetary stimulus and bets on a post-pandemic world, day traders and institutional pros alike are enjoying the easiest financial conditions in history.

“Sentiment indicators are moving to euphoria,” said Cedric Ozazman, chief investment officer at Reyl & Cie in Geneva. “People are now jumping to invest amid fears they will miss the Santa Claus rally.”

Here are the signs of market froth in this year of death, disease and economic calamity.
IPO Boom

Nothing evokes a stock peak like a rush to the public markets. Debuts from Snowflake Inc. to Airbnb Inc. took this year’s initial public offerings volume to a record $175 billion in the U.S., data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Special-purpose acquisition vehicles that raise money for a “blank check” company to buy whatever it wants have raised over $60 billion in 2020. That’s more than the previous decade combined. All that has drawn unprecedented interest in the Renaissance IPO exchange-traded fund tracking new listings, up more than 100% this year this year. Even SPACs that haven’t announced an acquisition target are up almost 20% in 2020, Bespoke Investment Group noted.
“If that isn’t a sign of exuberance, we don’t know what is!” Bespoke analysts wrote in a note.
Stock Rally

Robinhood traders have become the talk of Wall Street this year by speculating on everything from tech
options to airline shares. With these retail investors chasing the equity rally along with institutional pros, the S&P 500 is trading with a sales multiple some 16% above the 2000 peak.


Everything is going up. A Goldman Sachs basket of the most-shorted stocks in the Russell 3000 has surged about 40% this quarter, triple the broader index. High-beta shares are near their highest versus low-volatility ones since 2011.

Every time the Russell 2000 has surged more than 95% off its trough, it has gone on to lose money over the next three months, according to SentimenTrader. It is now up roughly 100% from its March low.
Options Frenzy

Bullish retail investors have plunged into the complex world of derivatives like never before this year. Over the last 20 days, a record average of roughly 22 million call contracts have traded each day across U.S. exchanges.Cboe’s equity put-call ratio has dropped near a decade low -- a sign traders have rarely ever been so hellbent on chasing upside in single stocks.
Merger Mania

Animal spirits in corporate boardrooms are another infamous sign of a market top. This quarter is shaping up to be the strongest for deal-making activity since 2016 after a record third quarter. S&P Global Inc. buying IHS Markit Ltd. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. taking over Xilinx Inc. are among the blockbusters.
With corporate cash balances rising in recent years and deal volume as apercentage of market value still below a long-time average, it is possible the recent activity is just the start.
Europe Joins In

Even Europe’s IPO market, which is much smaller in size than the one in the U.S. and less accustomed to big first-day pops, is going bananas.
Among the 44 firms that have listed on European exchanges since Nov. 9 -- the day news of a coronavirus vaccine set off a bull run in equities -- the average gain has been 16%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. About 70% of them are trading above their IPO price.



“Given heightened equity valuations, IPOs are again a viable exit route for sponsors,” said Darrell Uden, global co-head of ECM at RBC Capital Markets.
Credit Rebound

In a world of almost $18 trillion negative-yielding debt, investors have been forced to gorge on risky corporate bonds at record valuations.
In the U.S., yields on junk bonds have tumbled far below levels at which high-grade borrowers could issue earlier this year.
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Even Carnival Corp., the fallen-angel cruise ship operator, has progressively cut funding premiums this year. The stockpile of negative-yielding corporate debt now stands at over $3 trillion.
Emerging Markets

Naturally it’s boom times for emerging-market nations selling more than $730 billion in dollar and euro bonds in 2020, more than in any previous year.
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Even with political turmoil, Peru sold the lowest-yielding century bonds ever from a developing-economy government. Ivory Coast priced euro-denominated debt with a lower yield than last year, despite its participation in a G-20 debt relief initiative and an ongoing International Monetary Fund program.
Bitcoin’s Back

To diehards, Bitcoin’s more than 200% surge this year on a wave of new money shows crypto’s time has come. To many on Wall Street, it’s just the latest sign of irrational exuberance.
“We view it and other cryptocurrencies as ‘digital tulips.’ We have no way to value them,” Yardeni Research analysts including Ed Yardeni wrote in a note. “We do watch Bitcoin’s price action as a gauge of speculative excesses.”
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Its volatility is a hard pill to swallow for most but the likes of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Nomura Holdings Inc. have noted plenty of interest, from family offices to trend-following quants.
The virtual currency is surfing a wave of speculation for long-duration assets, from solar energy to Tesla Inc. shares, as investors seek a stake in a technology of tomorrow -- valuations be damned.
— With assistance by Justina Lee, Yakob Peterseil, Tasos Vossos, Swetha Gopinath, Eddie Spence, Selcuk Gokoluk, Cormac Mullen, Lu Wang, and Albertina Torsoli


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by Ta


















 

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Bozzie:

In the solar world you have panels which produce power in direct current (D/C) and you have inverter which inverts the power to alternating current (A/C). There are 100's of panel manufacturers but only a handful of inverter manufacturers. Probably 6 or 7 years ago I recommended SEDG an inverter company. I have recommended multiple times here. It was probably in the teens somewhere initially and is over $300 today. Stock has been a rock star.

Solar Edge runs a bunch of panels at once. Another inverter is one that is put behind each panel. Called a micro inverter. Enphase (ENPH) is a big player in that market. They had reliability issues and might have been close to going under. They have made a strong recovery.

SolarEdge makes residential size inverters along with commercial sizes. Enphase is mostly a residential player in the market. You could see a company like Enphase partner up with a panel manufacturer and install the microinverter at the factory with cheap labor and thus reduce the install time in the field.

The bigger things to know about the industry is the potential growth. The residential market is about 100 times as large as the commercial market. Additionally the new administration will offer pass more green friendly deals. One that passed the house and senate was not signed by the Trump. Solar is one of the largest growing fields in the country. They are above average paying jobs and the are in every state. With that said I think you will continue to see solar boom and the companies that make products for the industry. If the democrats win Georgia it could be an even bigger bump.

Take a look at SEDG and ENPH.

Lastly on the industry and I dont know how to capitalize on this....maybe someone else can do research. The latest trend is bi-facial panels. Basically absorbs sun either hitting it on the front or sun that misses the panel and reflects up and hits it on the back. You can see 20-40% more production on a ground mounted system using a bifacial panel. So what is different? They put glass on the front and the back of the panel versus a traditional panel only has glass on the front. The result is there is a high demand for bifacial panels. They use more glass and now there is a shortage of glass. Not sure who the glass manufacturers are but there is definitely a demand.

Northern Star


Went on deep dive in to ENPH this weekend...
Northern star they did get the manufacturing reliability issues resolved?
The market is booming but the run up in price makes this hard to buy right now...What do you think?..You seem to know this market inside out.
167.00 today Up 194 % this year alone...Man, what a call again.


Enphase Energy's (ENPH) Installer Network Comes to Australia




Enphase Energy, Inc. ENPH recently unveiled its Enphase Installer Network (EIN) in Australia. The EIN is specifically designed to help Enphase installers grow their business with a range of innovative digital tools and exclusive benefits.
Benefits of the EIN

As part of the ongoing digital transformation at Enphase, the EIN is backed by significant enhancements to the installer-facing functionality of the Enphase Enlighten platform. The digital components available to EIN members combine analytics with business growth tools, customer-support enhancements and services, which will enable installers to deliver enhanced customer experience and improve business efficiency and profits.

Australia-based homeowners can easily locate an EIN installer in their area using the Find an Installer tool. In addition, the EIN sets a benchmark for installer enablement and digital innovation, which will enhance service and simplify the process of selling high-performance and reliable solar solutions in the Australian solar market.



Enphase’s Prospects in Australia

The solar market in Australia is increasingly gaining momentum, courtesy of plummeting installation costs along with improved technologies. Notably, per a recent report by Australia’s Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources, the nation registered the maximum uptake of solar energy globally with 21% of homes installing rooftop solar PV.

Being a prominent microinverter supplier in the global solar space, Enphase’s products are frequently preferred by countries across the world, and Australia is no exception. For instance, the company joined REA Global in July 2020 to combine its IQ 7+ microinverters with the latter’s proprietary high-efficiency, high-density cell solar modules. This pair is projected to produce greater solar power from a smaller space for both residential and commercial customers across Australia.

Interestingly, Australia's current use of solar energy is low, with solar energy accounting for only about 0.1% of the country’s total primary energy consumption. Therefore, there remains ample room for solar expansion in this nation, going ahead. Keeping this in consideration, the latest network launch program further fortifies Enphase’s footprint in the rapidly-growing solar market in Australia.
Other Solar Players Operating in Australia

Alongside Enphase, Canadian Solar CSIQ and Jinko Solar JKS are other solar players that have already set foot in Australia’s solar market and are expected to benefit from the market’s boom.

In June 2020, JinkoSolar announced confirmed orders from an Australian wholesale distributor, Blue Sun Group, totaling more than 100MW of orders. Earlier, in March, Canadian Solar announced that its subsidiary, Canadian Solar Australia, has signed a power purchase agreement (PPA) with Amazon.
Price Performance

Enphase’s stock has skyrocketed 534.4% in the past year, outperforming the industry’s growth of 194.9%.
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Zacks Rank & A Key Pick

The company currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

A better-ranked stock in the same space is Azure Power Global AZRE, which carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

The company’s year-over-year earnings growth estimate stands at 28.54% for fiscal third-quarter 2021. The company’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate on three occasions and missed on the remaining one, with the average four-quarter surprise being 71.15%.
These Stocks Are Poised to Soar Past the Pandemic

The COVID-19 outbreak has shifted consumer behavior dramatically, and a handful of high-tech companies have stepped up to keep America running. Right now, investors in these companies have a shot at serious profits. For example, Zoom jumped 108.5% in less than 4 months while most other stocks were sinking.

Our research shows that 5 cutting-edge stocks could skyrocket from the exponential increase in demand for “stay at home” technologies. This could be one of the biggest buying opportunities of this decade, especially for those who get in early.








 

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I've been careful not to bring politics in to this..All I'll say here is the stock market above all hates uncertainty .
Asian markets fear this administration and rightfully so. I can't speculate what the reaction in Asia will be to a break in rhetoric but it can't hurt investment in China.


Trump derailed some of the biggest tech deals of the last four years — the industry could look very different today

KEY POINTS

  • The Trump administration wasn’t shy about blocking, or threatening to block, technology and technology deals.
  • One of the biggest themes of Trump’s presidency was an anti-China business stance that influenced technology policies in different ways.
  • AT&T, Broadcom, Huawei and TikTok all felt the Trump administration’s wrath.





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James Stewart, as George Bailey, points at Lionel Barrymore, as Mr. Potter, in a scene from It’s a Wonderful Life.
Bettmann | Getty Images



Christmas movies often explore alternate timelines. Ebenezer Scrooge runs from his future in “A Christmas Carol.” George Bailey views what life would have been like without him in “It’s a Wonderful Life.” Kevin McCallister gets a taste of life without his family in “Home Alone.”
In the spirit of the holidays, let’s take a look back at how outgoing U.S. president Donald Trump handled some of the biggest technology events of the last four years — and wonder what could have been if not for the government’s intervention.

2017: DOJ blocks AT&T’s $85 billion Time Warner deal



What happened: Ten months into the Trump presidency, the Department of Justice blocked AT&T’s $85 billion takeover of Time Warner. The move was unorthodox, as the wireless company didn’t operate in businesses that overlapped with Time Warner’s assets. The DOJ attempted to craft a vertical integration argument, claiming the deal would “mean higher monthly television bills and fewer of the new, emerging innovative options that consumers are beginning to enjoy.”
In June 2018, U.S. District Court Judge Richard Leon ruled that AT&T could buy Time Warner, denying the DOJ’s lawsuit to block the deal. Many speculated Trump may have pushed the DOJ to block the deal because of his antipathy for CNN, which Time Warner owns -- even though blocking the deal wouldn’t really “get back” at CNN in any meaningful way. (In fact, many Time Warner executives probably would have preferred it if the AT&T deal had been blocked).

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Randall Stephenson, chairman and chief executive officer of AT&T Inc., left, speaks while Jeffrey ‘Jeff’ Bewkes, chairman and chief executive officer of Time Warner Inc.
Patrick T. Fallon | Bloomberg | Getty Images



The U.S. government appealed Leon’s decision but lost that court challenge in Feb. 2019.
While AT&T waited to get control of Time Warner, the television world began to shift. Americans began cancelling cable by the millions and replacing their traditional pay-TV bundle with Netflix, Amazon Prime Video and Hulu.
In Nov. 2019, Disney launched Disney+. In just more than a year, Disney has 86.8 million Disney+ subscribers. AT&T was unable to reorganize Time Warner around streaming until the deal was approved in mid-2018, so was slower to launch its HBO Max flagship service, which debuted in May 2020. AT&T CEO John Stankey said earlier this month that HBO Max has 12.6 million subscribers.
Unimpressed by the Time Warner deal, investors haven’t been pleased with AT&T’s performance. Shares are trading near a 10-year low.
Alternate timeline: AT&T acquires Time Warner in late 2017. AT&T offers HBO Max to consumers months before Disney in 2019. Because of its first-mover advantage, consumers flock to HBO Max. AT&T’s stock jumps as investors give AT&T more of a Netflix-like multiple.
2018: Trump kills Broadcom’s hostile bid for Qualcomm

Reality: Just days before the Justice Department sued to block AT&T’s Time Warner acquisition, Broadcom made a surprising $103 billion hostile acquisition bid for Qualcomm. Qualcomm was in the middle of getting approval for its own major acquisition -- a $47 billion deal to buy Dutch semiconductor manufacturer NXP -- adding complication to the offer.
Over the course of the next few months, Qualcomm and Broadcom jostled with each other. Broadcom raising its bid to $121 billion, and then lowered it to $117 billion after Qualcomm raised its bid for NXP to appease activist shareholder Elliott Management. Still, Broadcom appeared to be gaining leverage with Qualcomm shareholders as a proxy vote drew near.

[COLOR=rgba(7, 29, 57, 0)]WATCH NOW



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Trump views Huawei as a bargaining chip for a US-China trade deal: AEI’s James Pethokoukis


In early March, the Trump administration got involved. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) sent a letter to Broadcom and Qualcomm lawyers listing national security risks that could arise from exploiting or compromising Qualcomm’s assets through arrangements with “third party foreign entities.” It also broached concerns about Broadcom’s reputation for cutting research spending, an concern that Microsoft and Google shared, as CNBC earlier reported.
About a week later, Trump dropped an unprecedented hammer. He was blocking the deal on national security concerns, even before an agreement between the two companies could be reached. The move significantly expanded CFIUS’s powers and effectively chilled U.S. cross-border semiconductor deals for the remainder of the Trump presidency.
Potentially as retaliation for Trump’s Broadcom decision, China regulators didn’t approve Qualcomm’s NXP acquisition. Qualcomm scrapped the deal.
Alternate timeline: Broadcom buys Qualcomm, becoming a global semiconductor superpower. It doesn’t buy CA Technologies for about $19 billion or Symantec’s enterprise business for $10.7 billion. NXP stays independent as Broadcom chooses not to acquire NXP. There are billions of other cross-border chip deals in the next three years, making bankers and lawyers very happy.

2019: Trump bans Huawei in U.S. markets

In May 2019, Trump filed an executive order banning technology from “foreign adversaries” that posed “unacceptable risks” to national security. The move targeted Chinese telecom equipment makers Huawei and ZTE. Trump argued their networking equipment could be used by China to spy on the U.S. Huawei has said allegations of spying are incorrect.

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U.S. President Donald Trump waves before boarding Air Force One at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, U.S., December 12, 2020.
Tom Brenner | Reuters

The ban also hurt both companies’ global 5G infrastructure development -- arguably the point of the order.
Weeks later, Trump formally politicized his action, saying Huawei’s U.S. fate could be resolves as part of a broader trade deal with China.
But a deal didn’t quickly materialize. In January 2020, the U.S. and China signed a partial trade deal with China. Huawei and ZTE weren’t a part of it. In July 2020, under heavy pressure from the Trump administration, the U.K. banned Huawei components from its 5G network after initially resisting.
Trump extended the Huawei/ZTE executive order in May 2020 for another year. President-elect Joe Biden’s administration will have to decide next moves in May 2021.
Alternate timeline: U.S. companies build speedier 5G networks for less money using Huawei components, but the mystery around how safe China’s technology is within U.S. borders persists. Huawei’s Honor phones become low-cost alternatives to Apple iPhones and Samsung Galaxy phones in the U.S., but overall it remains a minor player in the smartphone wars.

2020: Trump threatens to ban TikTok

Trump’s TikTok ban continued two themes of his presidency: retaliating against companies for personal reasons and punishing Chinese business interests in the U.S.
After India banned the popular video sharing application TikTok, owned by China-based ByteDance, the Trump administration decided it would so the same thing.
“As far as TikTok is concerned we’re banning them from the United States,” Trump told reporters on July 31. A week later, Trump drafted an executive order ordering a ban unless ByteDance sold TikTok’s U.S. operations.
The Trump administration said national security reasons prompted the executive order. ByteDance could share data from U.S. users with the Chinese government, Trump claimed.
Still, TikTok executives wondered if Trump was actually banning the company because teenagers used TikTok to prank the Trump presidential campaign by buying tickets to a Tulsa, Oklahoma, rally and then not showing up.

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Chairman of Direct-to-Consumer & International division of The Walt Disney Company Kevin Mayer took part today in the Disney+ Showcase at Disney’s D23 EXPO 2019 in Anaheim, Calif., August 23, 2019.
Jesse Grant

ByteDance said it never shared, nor would share, information with the Chinese government. Still, the company began holding sale talks with Microsoft and Oracle to stay operational in the U.S. Days before announcing a deal, TikTok CEO Kevin Mayer announced he would resign rather than running TikTok as a division of a larger U.S. technology company.
Just as ByteDance prepared to announced a deal, the Chinese government added new restrictions on a sale, sending the parties back to the drawing board.
Working with the Trump administration, ByteDance agreed to sell a 12.5% stake in TikTok Global to Oracle and a 7.5% stake to Walmart. Additionally, Oracle would serve as TikTok’s “trusted technology partner,” housing U.S. data on its servers.
But China still needed to approve a deal -- and it never did. By refusing to agree to the sale, China backed Trump into a corner. He could either ban the application, as he threatened, or he could let the issue die.
It appears the Trump administration has chosen the latter option. To date, no TikTok deal has taken place. ByteDance continues to own the company. It’s unclear if or when a transaction will occur.
Alternate timeline: Kevin Mayer is still TikTok CEO. Everyone involved in this debacle has improved mental health and sleep .




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LISTEN TO TODAY'S PODCAST AVAILABLE AT 8AM ON:
Welcome to Wall Street Brunch, our preview of stock market events for investors to watch during the upcoming week. You can also catch this article a day early by subscribing to the Stocks to Watch account for Saturday morning delivery.
Outlook
Economic reports in the week ahead​
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Shutterstock​
It is a very light calendar ahead of the Christmas break with just a few earnings reports and no investor conferences at all. Vaccine news is likely as Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) shipments start arriving in key spots and both CVS Health (NYSE:CVS) and Walgreens Boots Alliance (NASDAQ:WBA) run on-site clinics at nursing homes. Big banks look set for a strong week after the Federal Reserve gave the green light for buybacks and dividends. Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), Citigroup (NYSE:C), Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS)and Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) are all poised to rally. Finally, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) makes its official appearance on the S&P 500 Index on December 21. Tesla will be one of the ten most valuable companies in the index and have a projected weighting of around 1.6%.​
Earnings
Just a few companies step into the earnings confessional next week. Watch for reports from FactSet Research Systems (NYSE:FDS), Enerpac Tool (NYSE:EPAC) and Calavo Growers (NASDAQ:CVGW) on December 21; CarMax (NYSE:KMX) and Cintas (NASDAQ:CTAS) on December 22 and Paychex (NASDAQ:PAYX) on December 23.​
IPOs
No new IPO pricing are expected for the short week, but IPO lockup periods expire on Albertsons (NYSE:ACI), Akouos (NASDAQ:AKUS), Agora (NASDAQ:API), Ozon (NASDAQ:OZON), Lixte (OTCQB:LIXT), Vision Marine (VMAR), Fusion Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:FUSN) and PolyPid (NASDAQ:PYPD) and Amersite (NASDAQ:AMST) on varying blocks of shares.Go Deeper: Catch up on all the latest IPO news.
M&A
Shareholder votes are set on the BMC Stock Holdings (BMHC) - Builders FirstSource (NASDAQ:BLDR) and SINA Corporation (NASDAQ:SINA) - Chao mergers on December 22. The HSR filing deadline for the Slack Technologies (NYSE:WORK)-Salesforce (NYSE:CRM) deal is on December 22.

Social Capital Hedosophia II (NYSE:IPOB) and Opendoor Technologies are due to close on their business combination and the new entity will trade on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under symbol OPEN. Opendoor Technologies has all the hallmarks of something investors may gobble up. The company will raise approximately $1B from the transaction to fuel growth, market expansion and development of new product offerings, as well as accelerate plans to expand nationwide and build the first digital one-stop-shop to buy and sell a home.​
Dividends
A slow week is setting up for dividend changes with only ServisFirst Bancshares (NASDAQ:SFBS) expected to pull off a move. ServisFirst is forecast to boost its quarterly payout to $0.20 from $0.175. Checking in on S&P 500 Index, companies with dividend yields over 5% include Dow (NYSE:DOW), IBM (NYSE:IBM), AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV), AT&T (NYSE:T), Iron Mountain (NYSE:IRM), Chevron (NYSE:CVX) and Philip Morris International (NYSE:PM).​
Tech
The high-profile cyberattacks reported are resetting some investment themes for 2021. Wedbush Securities says cybersecurity names such as Zscaler (NASDAQ:ZS), Crowdstrike (NASDAQ:CRWD), CyberArk (NASDAQ:CYBR), Qualys (NASDAQ:QLYS), Varonis (NASDAQ:VRNS), SailPoint Technologies (NYSE:SAIL), Telos (NASDAQ:TLS), and Tenable (NASDAQ:TENB) in particular become front and center on this phase of cloud deployments among both governments and enterprises into 2021. "With more sensitive data and critical information needing to be protected in these cloud deployments with WFH accelerating these trends, we believe security vendors stand to benefit during 2021 as more spending shifts towards broader cloud deployments. We believe there is a $200 billion dollar growth opportunity in cloud security up for grabs over the next five years for those vendors that have the solution sets to protect critical cloud deployments and seamlessly work with on-premise and public/hybrid workloads through a unified and deep solution set," advises Dan Ives.​
Barron's mentions
The publication's top ten stocks for 2021 list has a value bent, with Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO), Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE:GS), Newmont (NYSE:NEM), Eaton (NYSE:ETN), Graham Holdings (NYSE:GHC), Madison Square Entertainment (NYSE:MSGE) and Merck (NYSE:MRK) making the cut. In a separate article, Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) is lined up as an attractive stock for a post-COVID world and called cheap on a sum-of-the-parts analysis. The regulatory challenges ahead for Robinhood (RBNHD) are broken down even as the company steams toward an IPO next year.

Sources: EDGAR, Bloomberg, CNBC, Reuters, Renaissance Capital

 

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Last of the year on this.....

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Global Market Comments
December 21, 2020
Fiat Lux

SPECIAL END OF YEAR ISSUE
Featured Trade:
(THANK YOU FROM THE MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER),
(MY LAST RESEARCH PIECE OF THE YEAR)

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Thank You from The Mad Hedge Fund Trader

You are in safe hands now, with your trading portfolios up nearly 65% on the year, if you had followed every one of my Trade Alerts to the letter.I know a lot of you made more, a lot more.

I will be making a beeline for my beachfront estate at Incline Village, Nevada on the pristine shores of Lake Tahoe and work from there for the next two weeks. That is if I can battle my way through the nightmarish Sacramento holiday traffic.

My Tesla Model X packed to the gills with Christmas presents, ski equipment, snowshoes, board games (yes, “Qi” is a word in Scrabble), and my expedition backpack. No extra food this year because the pandemic has barred all guests. Thank you Elon Musk and your P100D!

For proof that after working 12 hours a day, six hours a week, to make you wealthier and wiser, please read my last research piece of the year below, written tongue in cheek with a certain Hollywood film classic in mind.

And what a year it has been. Pandemics, wildfires, economic collapse, lockdowns, recoveries, and a presidential election still being fought out in the courts. It all seems like some cheap Hollywood thriller!

The research I gathered was enough for me to publish 760 letters totaling one million words, including Global Trading Dispatch, the Mad Hedge Technology Letter, the Mad Hedge Biotech & Health Care Letter, and Mad Hedge Hot Tips.

That is about almost double the length of Tolstoy’s War and Peace, but then Tolstoy in his time had to write with a quill and ink, not Word for Windows. I am a writing machine. I haven’t received a single complaint this year that I was not sending out enough content.

I also managed to pump out over 300 trade alerts with a success ratio of 92%. That’s an average of more than one each trading day.

According to the email traffic, many of you did extremely well. If you are into triple digits, please send me an email. I would love to get a testimonial from you. I know that many of you have run out and purchased the new Tesla Model X gullwing P100D with the “ludicrous mode” on my recommendation.

You know that when they are advertising power tools and Pelotons on CNBC, it is time to get out of Dodge. I’ll take the hint.

At Tahoe, I will consume a suitcase full of research and, after much cogitation and contemplation, write my 2021 Annual Asset Review, which I will publish on Wednesday, January 6.

I will also be rethinking my business model, so if any of you have suggestions on how I can improve this service, send me an email at madhedgefundtrader@yahoo.com.

Just put “suggestions” in the subject line. My intention is to never stop improving the product, to always under-promise and over-deliver.

It’s a nostrum of Silicon Valley that whenever you think you're finished, you’re finished.

Please forgive me in advance if I take a few hours catching some “big air” off of Squaw Valley’s treacherous double X black runs.

If you have any trading questions, please seek me out on the northern section of Tahoe Rim Trail around 11,000 feet, where I will be snowshoeing my way around the lake in subzero temperatures.

I will probably be the only guy up there, so you can just follow the first set of tracks you find. That is if hungry mountain lions don’t get you first.

I’ll have my Bowie knife and an industrial-sized can of bear spray, so I’ll be fine. As for you, I’m not so sure. This is what I do during my winter leisure time.

During my absence, I will be posting some of my favorite pieces from the last year which give insights on how markets will play out over the coming decades, and a lot of basic educational pieces.

I have thousands of new subscribers who will be reading these for the first time, and many legacy readers may have missed them the first time around or forgotten the data because they are older than me.

I hope you find them as another useful step towards your education on the global financial markets. Charts and data have been updated to make them relevant.

Finally, I want to thank you all for my incredible life. Thanks to you I have crossed the Atlantic in luxury in the owner’s suite of Cunard’s Queen Mary 2 (My uncle took the Queen Mary 1 in 1943 in somewhat more cramped conditions).

I rode the Orient Express from London to Venice. I lived in the lap of luxury at the Hotel Cipriani in Venice and at the Raffles in Singapore.

And I managed to haggle the merchants in Tangier’s historic bazaar down in the price of the most elegant hand-made carpets.

I had the opportunity to meet heads of state, CEOs, top money managers, our nation’s military leaders, and even a Maori chieftain.

I had the pleasure of flying the length of the Grand Canyon at low altitude as a pilot, weaving my way along the Colorado River. And, oh yes, I made it to the top of the Matterhorn one more time.

I really did get to rub shoulders with the high and mighty who run the world and harvest their pearls of wisdom, which I passed on to you.

I logged 200 hours as a pilot flying to such diverse locations as the Great Barrier Reef in Australia and Honda’s loading docks in San Francisco.

I never minded the horrendous jet lag, the well-deserved hangovers, or the traffic jams in China. Your subscriptions to my services, your support of my research, and your endless compliments made it all worth it.

I always tell people that I am not in this for the money, and it’s true.

Not a day goes by when I don’t receive an email from a grateful reader who claims that I have paid off their mortgage, a kid’s college education, a parent’s uninsured operation, or a child’s chemotherapy.

They tell me that I am teaching them to fish; thus, sparing them from the frozen tasteless kind they sell at Safeway, which they must wait in line to pay inflated prices. You can’t buy that kind of appreciation, not with all the money in the world.

It certainly beats the hell out of spending my retirement scoring a 98 on the local golf course. And I’ll never beat Tiger Woods, no matter how many blonds I date.

To leave you all in the Christmas spirit, I have posted a video and pictures of the Polar Express in Portland, Oregon.

Taking my family for a ride has become an annual event, and it is a thrill for my younger kids as well. To watch a short video of one of the largest steam engines in the world, please click here.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to All!

Good Trading in 2021!

John Thomas
The Mad Hedge Fund Trader


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My Last Research Piece of the Year
All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.
All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.
All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.
All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.
All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.
All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.
All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.
All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.
All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.
All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.
All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.
All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.
All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.
All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.
All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.
All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.
All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.
All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.
All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.
All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.
All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.
All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.
All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.
All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.
All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.
All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.
All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.
All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.
All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.
All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.
All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.
All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.
All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.
All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.
All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.
All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.
All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.
All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.
All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.
All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.
All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.
All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy.

With Apologies to "The Shining" (1980)



Quote of the Day“If the Fed brings a lump of coal in 2020, then they better bring some candy canes for the kids as well,” said Bill Gross, former CEO of bond giant PIMCO.

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Went on deep dive in to ENPH this weekend...
Northern star they did get the manufacturing reliability issues resolved?
The market is booming but the run up in price makes this hard to buy right now...What do you think?..You seem to know this market inside out.
167.00 today Up 194 % this year alone...Man, what a call again.


Enphase Energy's (ENPH) Installer Network Comes to Australia




Enphase Energy, Inc. ENPH recently unveiled its Enphase Installer Network (EIN) in Australia. The EIN is specifically designed to help Enphase installers grow their business with a range of innovative digital tools and exclusive benefits.
Benefits of the EIN

As part of the ongoing digital transformation at Enphase, the EIN is backed by significant enhancements to the installer-facing functionality of the Enphase Enlighten platform. The digital components available to EIN members combine analytics with business growth tools, customer-support enhancements and services, which will enable installers to deliver enhanced customer experience and improve business efficiency and profits.

Australia-based homeowners can easily locate an EIN installer in their area using the Find an Installer tool. In addition, the EIN sets a benchmark for installer enablement and digital innovation, which will enhance service and simplify the process of selling high-performance and reliable solar solutions in the Australian solar market.



Enphase’s Prospects in Australia

The solar market in Australia is increasingly gaining momentum, courtesy of plummeting installation costs along with improved technologies. Notably, per a recent report by Australia’s Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources, the nation registered the maximum uptake of solar energy globally with 21% of homes installing rooftop solar PV.

Being a prominent microinverter supplier in the global solar space, Enphase’s products are frequently preferred by countries across the world, and Australia is no exception. For instance, the company joined REA Global in July 2020 to combine its IQ 7+ microinverters with the latter’s proprietary high-efficiency, high-density cell solar modules. This pair is projected to produce greater solar power from a smaller space for both residential and commercial customers across Australia.

Interestingly, Australia's current use of solar energy is low, with solar energy accounting for only about 0.1% of the country’s total primary energy consumption. Therefore, there remains ample room for solar expansion in this nation, going ahead. Keeping this in consideration, the latest network launch program further fortifies Enphase’s footprint in the rapidly-growing solar market in Australia.
Other Solar Players Operating in Australia

Alongside Enphase, Canadian Solar CSIQ and Jinko Solar JKS are other solar players that have already set foot in Australia’s solar market and are expected to benefit from the market’s boom.

In June 2020, JinkoSolar announced confirmed orders from an Australian wholesale distributor, Blue Sun Group, totaling more than 100MW of orders. Earlier, in March, Canadian Solar announced that its subsidiary, Canadian Solar Australia, has signed a power purchase agreement (PPA) with Amazon.
Price Performance

Enphase’s stock has skyrocketed 534.4% in the past year, outperforming the industry’s growth of 194.9%.
4b02b5831d42f16696c11fe609d854b3
Zacks Rank & A Key Pick

The company currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

A better-ranked stock in the same space is Azure Power Global AZRE, which carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

The company’s year-over-year earnings growth estimate stands at 28.54% for fiscal third-quarter 2021. The company’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate on three occasions and missed on the remaining one, with the average four-quarter surprise being 71.15%.
These Stocks Are Poised to Soar Past the Pandemic

The COVID-19 outbreak has shifted consumer behavior dramatically, and a handful of high-tech companies have stepped up to keep America running. Right now, investors in these companies have a shot at serious profits. For example, Zoom jumped 108.5% in less than 4 months while most other stocks were sinking.

Our research shows that 5 cutting-edge stocks could skyrocket from the exponential increase in demand for “stay at home” technologies. This could be one of the biggest buying opportunities of this decade, especially for those who get in early.









In our meeting this morning we were told that the investment tax credit (ITC) for solar was going to be extended for 2 years at 26% for the next two years. Part of the bill that is supposed to be finalized by house and senate and sent for Trumps signature. This will be great for solar. Also that business is so strong that we could see a panel shortage later in 2021.
 

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AZRE up 13% today.

Northern Star I didn't realize you're actually in a biz doing business within the market..outstanding..I think I'm going to buy one of the two you've suggested..you have one over the other you see as better long investment?
I'm trying to read as much as I can in the field...Nice move today on this worth watching..reading up now...thanks CB
 

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AZRE up 13% today.
Just a quick look without looking at the financials ..They build and maintain then sell the power or do they manage the sites only? I love emerging economies and India is a blank for me.... Very interesting.
 

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