I love this idea.. a lot.
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| Global Market Comments July 16, 2020 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE TRADE OF THE CENTURY IS SETTING UP), (TLT), (A COW-BASED ECONOMICS LESSON) 
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The Trade of the Century is Setting Up How about if I told you there was a relatively low-risk trade setting up that offered a 347% return? Would it help if I told you it was in the world’s most liquid market?So, I bet you’re thinking about the latest small-cap technology stocks, Bitcoin, vintage cars, or collectible French postage stamps. In reality, I’m talking about the US Treasury bond market (TLT). I’m not saying you should add this position right now, this second. Nor am I advocating that you bet the ranch on this one. But there is one hell of a trade setting up in the bond market over the next few months or so. Let’s go through what Albert Einstein used to call a “thought experiment.” Today, the United States Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) is trading near an all-time high at $167. If you go a mere $20 out-of-the-money, you can buy the (TLT) January 2022 $144-$147 vertical bear put spread for 67 cents. If interest rates rocket from today’s 0.63% to back up to 1.85% over the next 18 months and the (TLT) collapses from $167 down to below $144 by January 22, 2022, the value of this position will soar from 67 cents to $3.00, a net gain of 347%. This is not some pie-in-the-sky, Armageddon type scenario. This in fact was the level of interest rates that prevailed only five months ago, in February. The nice thing about seeing interest rates on the way down you always get to revisit them again on the way up. The fundamentals of this trade are as simple as they can get. It’s simply a matter of supply and demand. We learned on Monday that the US Budget Deficit Soared to $867 Billion in June, taking it to an unprecedented $10.4 trillion annual rate. The national debt will rocket by 50% this year. Your grandkids are going to have a monster bill to pay. To fund this deficit, the US Treasury is going to have to issue more bonds than at any time in history, far more than were issued to finance WWII on a percentage of GDP basis. No bond market anywhere has ever faced such an issuance onslaught. The monetary historians out there know that you have to go back to Weimar Germany of the early 1920s to reach any kind of comparison. That little experiment ended with 1 trillion percent inflation. Workers then had to be paid twice a day or their currency would become worthless by dinner time. If you don’t like options plays, there is an ETF that captures this move, the 2X ProShares Ultra Short US Treasury bond Fund (TBT). If my collapsing bond scenario plays out as expected, the (TBT) should rocket from today’s $15.41 to over 100, a gain of 566%. A bond short isn’t the only way to cash in on massive government borrowing. Keep selling every rally in the US dollar (UUP) and buy gold (GLD) as well. I’ll go into these in more depth in a future research piece. Like I said, there is one heck of a trade setting up. All you have to do is be patient. 
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A Cow-Based Economics Lesson SOCIALISM You have 2 cows. You give one to your neighbor.COMMUNISM You have 2 cows. The State takes both and gives you some watered-down milk. FASCISM You have 2 cows. The State takes both and sells you some milk at an inflated price. NAZISM You have 2 cows. The State takes both and sends you to a concentration camp. BUREAUCRATISM You have 2 cows. The State takes both, shoots one, milks the other, and then throws the milk away. TRADITIONAL CAPITALISM You have two cows. You sell one and buy a bull. Your herd multiplies, and the economy grows. You sell them and retire on the income, but worry about your cholesterol level and blood pressure. ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND (VENTURE) CAPITALISM You have two cows. You sell three of them to your publicly-listed company using letters of credit opened by your brother-in-law at a non-tax treaty offshore bank, then execute a debt/equity swap with an associated general offer so that you get all four cows back, with a tax exemption for five cows. The milk rights of the six cows are transferred via an anonymous intermediary to a Cayman Island company secretly owned by the majority shareholder who sells the rights to all seven cows back to your listed company. The annual report says the company owns eight cows, with an option on one more. You sell one cow to buy a new president of the United States, leaving you with nine cows. No balance sheet provided with the release. The public then buys your bull. You are lauded as a titan of free-market capitalism. SURREALISM You have two giraffes. The government requires you to take harmonica lessons. AN AMERICAN CORPORATION You have two cows. You sell one, and force the other to produce the milk of four cows. Later, you hire a consultant to analyze why the cow has dropped dead. PETA sues you and pickets your office. A FRENCH CORPORATION You have two cows. You go on strike, organize a riot, and block the roads because you want three cows. And you have a fabulous time doing all this. The world is shocked. A JAPANESE CORPORATION You have two cows. You redesign them so they are one-tenth the size of an ordinary cow and produce twenty times the milk. You then create a clever cow cartoon image called a Cowkimona and market it worldwide. Then your stock crashes. AN ITALIAN CORPORATION You have two really fine, stylish cows which cost a fortune, but you don't know where they are. You decide to have lunch with a fine bottle of Antinori, and top it all off with a potent grappa and double espresso. A SWISS CORPORATION You have 5000 cows. None of them belong to you. You charge the owners for storing them. The US IRS launches a criminal investigation and arrests every Swiss banker when they go shopping in New York. A CHINESE CORPORATION You have two cows. You have 300 people milking them. You claim that you have full employment and high bovine productivity. You arrest the newsman who reported the real situation. Then your stock crashes. AN INDIAN CORPORATION You have two cows. You worship them and feed them all your garbage. A BRITISH CORPORATION You have two cows. Both are mad but drink great beer. AN IRAQI CORPORATION Everyone thinks you have lots of cows. You tell them that you have none. No-one believes you, so they bomb the ** out of you and invade your country. You still have no cows, but at least you are now a Democracy. AN AUSTRALIAN CORPORATION You have two cows. Business seems pretty good. You close the office and go for a few beers at the barby to celebrate. A NEW ZEALAND CORPORATION You have two cows. The one on the left looks very attractive. But no one cares because you are in New Zealand. 
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Quote of the Day “Amazon isn’t happening to the book business. The future is happening to the book business,” said Amazon founder Jeff Bezos. 
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Powell said recently they aren't even thinking about it..with 5 % GDP projected It seems like a snitch.
With tepid growth higher interest rates would some what squash a recovery.
Maybe someplace in 21 but late?
Who knows? things are so goofy even pros/fund managers are stumped at the next move.
This is interesting...Great short read on the vacuum created by the end of the recent massive Tesla short position.
"What happens when the mother of all shorts ends?"
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4358869-tesla-what-happens-when-mother-of-all-short-squeezes-ends
This story came out today in reference to AVDL and JAZZ
It's looking a little less "far-out" as possibility the two coming together in a buy out.
Either way AVDL is a strong play and a bit shelter from havoc in the market around the high fliers.
AVDL 8.10 at the close.
Seeking Alpha 7/16/20
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4358851-assessing-investment-in-avadel-pharmaceuticals
B Riley gave LLNW a 9.00 dollar target this AM.
Going to be watching for a volume uptick today and Monday.
On Monday the 20th after hours earnings will be announced and guidance going forward will be given.
I'm still on the fence on how to play this..sell on anticipation or wait and play the guidance and sell it somewhere down the line..like a week or two.
I've looked at past earnings and the anticipation price is sometimes the high point....regularly its fallen on earnings post announcement then risen on guidance shortly after...The market news is lagging more than ever with so much news daily
I think they miss on earnings (57. million is the target but I read that last night) I think it'll be close but the guidance going forward should be very strong ...
BABA getting close to entering connect witch is the vehicle for northbound mainland Chinese investment in Hong Kong ...very interesting topic and company entering the connect will suddenly open to new channels of liquidity and offer some protection to Chinese investors over the Chinese markets.
Can be a good indication of movement and results consensus ...But Not always
LLNW Call and Put options
expiration Date Aug 21st are the ones I'm watching
Results Updated Below. LIMELIGHT NETWORKS LIMELIGHT NETWORKS
Last Price7.08 Day Change+0.23 (3.36%)
Last Trade 3:38:47 PM ET Refresh
Bid7.08
High7.35
Ask7.09
Low6.96
Volume1,912,704
LLNW Call and Put options
expiration Date Aug 21st are the ones I'm watching
Results Updated Below. LIMELIGHT NETWORKS LIMELIGHT NETWORKS
Last Price7.08 Day Change+0.23 (3.36%)
Last Trade 3:38:47 PM ET Refresh
Bid7.08
High7.35
Ask7.09
Low6.96
Volume1,912,704
Calls//////////////////////////////// spread/////////////////////////////////// Puts
| Action | Build | Volume | OI | Last | Change | Bid | Ask | Strike | Bid | Ask | Last | Change | Volume | OI | Build | Action | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LLNW Jul 17, 2020 (Expires today) LLNW Jul 17, 2020 (Expires today) | Showing 8 out of 11 Strikes Show:
| |||||||||||||||||
| Trade | Select | 1 | 48 | 3.12 | +0.27 | 3.00 | 3.20 | 4.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.05 | 0 | 0 | 67 | Select | Trade | ||
| Trade | Select | 166 | 678 | 2.10 | +0.35 | 2.05 | 2.20 | 5.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0 | 0 | 250 | Select | Trade | ||
| Trade | Select | 149 | 691 | 1.05 | +0.14 | 1.05 | 1.15 | 6.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0 | 0 | 428 | Select | Trade | ||
| Trade | Select | 397 | 1,729 | 0.10 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 7.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 | -0.15 | 19 | 531 | Select | Trade | ||
| Trade | Select | 70 | 6,598 | 0.04 | +0.03 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 8.00 | 0.85 | 1.00 | 0.80 | -0.35 | 2 | 133 | Select | Trade | ||
| Trade | Select | 8 | 965 | 0.03 | -0.02 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 9.00 | 1.80 | 2.10 | 2.20 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Select | Trade | ||
| Trade | Select | 0 | 988 | 0.15 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 10.00 | 2.85 | 3.10 | 2.25 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Select | Trade | ||
| Trade | Select | 0 | 64 | 0.05 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 11.00 | 3.80 | 4.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Select | Trade | ||
| LLNW Aug 21, 2020 (Fri:35 days) LLNW Aug 21, 2020 (Fri: 35 days) | Showing 8 out of 11 Strikes Show:
| |||||||||||||||||
| Trade | Select | 9 | 9 | 3.18 | +0.28 | 3.10 | 3.40 | 4.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.06 | +0.01 | 10 | 35 | Select | Trade | ||
| Trade | Select | 18 | 136 | 2.45 | +0.30 | 2.25 | 2.45 | 5.00 | 0.20 | 0.25 | 0.21 | +0.04 | 154 | 23 | Select | Trade | ||
| Trade | Select | 159 | 472 | 1.65 | +0.17 | 1.45 | 1.75 | 6.00 | 0.45 | 0.55 | 0.54 | -0.01 | 394 | 699 | Select | Trade | ||
| Trade | Select | 355 | 1,863 | 1.10 | +0.13 | 1.05 | 1.15 | 7.00 | 0.95 | 1.00 | 1.01 | -0.07 | 134 | 382 | Select | Trade | ||
| Trade | Select | 247 | 3,615 | 0.75 | +0.11 | 0.70 | 0.80 | 8.00 | 1.55 | 1.75 | 1.60 | -0.15 | 35 | 57 | Select | Trade | ||
| Trade | Select | 280 | 4,872 | 0.55 | +0.10 | 0.50 | 0.55 | 9.00 | 2.35 | 2.50 | 2.35 | +0.25 | 6 | 15 | Select | Trade | ||
| Trade | Select | 215 | 1,316 | 0.40 | +0.05 | 0.35 | 0.40 | 10.00 | 3.20 | 3.40 | 3.10 | 0 | 0 | 115 | Select | Trade | ||
| Trade | Select | 14 | 1,279 | 0.30 | +0.05 | 0.25 | 0.35 | 11.00 | 4.10 | 4.30 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Select | Trade |
