it's definately one of the more interesting threads in the forum, although what with the euro i haven't had enough time to contribute.
At the moment i ve been getting some very curious results from my novice and incomplete database, which i am working on in my spare time from, work, recreation, and betting on the europian cup. If anyone can shed some light here.
Betting blindly on major leagues in european soccer, 1 unit per game, results in a yield (roi) of about 95-97% on the home team (irregardless of it being a favourite or an underdog), around 75%-80% on the draw, and 80%-85% on the away win, which is very peculiar, at least to this gambler who's not yet as number savvy as he should be. Why would home teams show a lower overround than draws or away teams? Why is the draw overround so much higher than the rest? Possibly since home teams are more often than not favourites, their overround is smaller than that of the underdogs, but then again, doesn't the majority of the public, as rumour has it overestimate the home factor, shouldn't bookmakers compensate for that? Like i said my database is rather limited and my analysis error prone, but i just thought i d post these, before working on it further after the euro.
I ve also noticed that good teams playing away, top 6 teams say, and being favourites seem to be huge money burners, that kinda goes against the article posted, but of course the author was refering to <1.6 away favourites which are of course a very rare occurance in any league. I have a theory on why a <1.6 away fav. would be a profitable proposition. Most gamblers when they see a 1.8-2 away price on an obviously good team (to be favoured away) will think, "i am getting a good price hear, they are good, they should get the job done...blah...blah...", but when a threshold is crossed such as the 1.6 or lower one, then they swing opposites ways to an equally random and unfounded conclusion that "these odds are too low for any AWAY team OR i am getting a good price on the home dog, what with the crowd support and all" , hence bookmakers expecting this kind of reaction, to balance shop, the might automatically turn a 1.4 away fav to 1.5 and crop the home dogs odds, this of course is just a theory, based on other peoples (supposed?) data, but if the original article in the first post of this thread is right then that's probably the sole explanation behind it, or is it?
At the moment i ve been getting some very curious results from my novice and incomplete database, which i am working on in my spare time from, work, recreation, and betting on the europian cup. If anyone can shed some light here.
Betting blindly on major leagues in european soccer, 1 unit per game, results in a yield (roi) of about 95-97% on the home team (irregardless of it being a favourite or an underdog), around 75%-80% on the draw, and 80%-85% on the away win, which is very peculiar, at least to this gambler who's not yet as number savvy as he should be. Why would home teams show a lower overround than draws or away teams? Why is the draw overround so much higher than the rest? Possibly since home teams are more often than not favourites, their overround is smaller than that of the underdogs, but then again, doesn't the majority of the public, as rumour has it overestimate the home factor, shouldn't bookmakers compensate for that? Like i said my database is rather limited and my analysis error prone, but i just thought i d post these, before working on it further after the euro.
I ve also noticed that good teams playing away, top 6 teams say, and being favourites seem to be huge money burners, that kinda goes against the article posted, but of course the author was refering to <1.6 away favourites which are of course a very rare occurance in any league. I have a theory on why a <1.6 away fav. would be a profitable proposition. Most gamblers when they see a 1.8-2 away price on an obviously good team (to be favoured away) will think, "i am getting a good price hear, they are good, they should get the job done...blah...blah...", but when a threshold is crossed such as the 1.6 or lower one, then they swing opposites ways to an equally random and unfounded conclusion that "these odds are too low for any AWAY team OR i am getting a good price on the home dog, what with the crowd support and all" , hence bookmakers expecting this kind of reaction, to balance shop, the might automatically turn a 1.4 away fav to 1.5 and crop the home dogs odds, this of course is just a theory, based on other peoples (supposed?) data, but if the original article in the first post of this thread is right then that's probably the sole explanation behind it, or is it?
Jack,
Why do you even waste one second of your valuable time looking at these high vig 3-way odds? Do those quotes become even one second more meaningful, if the draw/away wins were to pay out 90% instead?
Go Asian! You will not find such big biases then. Next step is to follow the trend of the Asian market and simply bet with the slow to move bookies outside Asia.
Why do you even waste one second of your valuable time looking at these high vig 3-way odds? Do those quotes become even one second more meaningful, if the draw/away wins were to pay out 90% instead?
Go Asian! You will not find such big biases then. Next step is to follow the trend of the Asian market and simply bet with the slow to move bookies outside Asia.
in a way you are right acw, it's my first attempt at incorporating some hard numbers in my analysis, at least in the organised, structured manner of a database so i am pretty much looking at anything and everything, drawing angles from here and there. It's more of a way of finding out how the bookmakers, the european ones mostly, react to the public's betting, their filters so to speak, and the rationale behind them. I too am very uncertain on the meaningfulness of such quotes, but i am willing to take my time with them. A few more aspects i d like to look at, in the course of next season, would be regression to the mean team performances and gamblers awareness of it, or lack theirof of it and profitable openings, and neural networks for both asian market analysis and prediction, and soccer modelling, a very promising albeit particularly demanding field.
But for the time being you ll probably get tired of me posting more boring, pointless quotes until i get somewhere and put some more perspective into all of it.
Which brings me to, where can i get or buy historical asian handicap odds, both opening and closing lines, and, what would you consider are the best internet outlets for asian handicap line movements? I ve seen both you and matahari quoting macauslot's line movement charts, but i can't browse around their site what with it being a language all too foreign from me, and activeodds are the closest alternative i ve found.
bol. Jack.
But for the time being you ll probably get tired of me posting more boring, pointless quotes until i get somewhere and put some more perspective into all of it.
Which brings me to, where can i get or buy historical asian handicap odds, both opening and closing lines, and, what would you consider are the best internet outlets for asian handicap line movements? I ve seen both you and matahari quoting macauslot's line movement charts, but i can't browse around their site what with it being a language all too foreign from me, and activeodds are the closest alternative i ve found.
bol. Jack.
Jack,
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> Betting blindly on major leagues in european soccer, 1 unit per game, results in a yield (roi) of about 95-97% on the home team (irregardless of it being a favourite or an underdog), around 75%-80% on the draw, and 80%-85% on the away win, which is very peculiar, at least to this gambler who's not yet as number savvy as he should be. Why would home teams show a lower overround than draws or away teams? Why is the draw overround so much higher than the rest? <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
So that are the result of all major european leagues ? They can be very different btw. I have the home advantage (in goals) worked out for every european league, it goes for EPL 0.34 goals, but for Bundesliga it's as high as 0.62.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> Possibly since home teams are more often than not favourites, their overround is smaller than that of the underdogs, but then again, doesn't the majority of the public, as rumour has it overestimate the home factor, shouldn't bookmakers compensate for that? <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Aren't they compensating ? As they cashflow is disproportionally high into the home teams (which are more often than not favourites) then the books can afford such a small overround on them.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> and neural networks for both asian market analysis and prediction <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
You mean predictions based on movements ? Why would you need neural networks for that ?
acw,
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> Next step is to follow the trend of the Asian market and simply bet with the slow to move bookies outside Asia. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Is there any slow to move book (asian handicap) outside Asia ? I'm afraid there's no one left.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> Betting blindly on major leagues in european soccer, 1 unit per game, results in a yield (roi) of about 95-97% on the home team (irregardless of it being a favourite or an underdog), around 75%-80% on the draw, and 80%-85% on the away win, which is very peculiar, at least to this gambler who's not yet as number savvy as he should be. Why would home teams show a lower overround than draws or away teams? Why is the draw overround so much higher than the rest? <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
So that are the result of all major european leagues ? They can be very different btw. I have the home advantage (in goals) worked out for every european league, it goes for EPL 0.34 goals, but for Bundesliga it's as high as 0.62.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> Possibly since home teams are more often than not favourites, their overround is smaller than that of the underdogs, but then again, doesn't the majority of the public, as rumour has it overestimate the home factor, shouldn't bookmakers compensate for that? <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Aren't they compensating ? As they cashflow is disproportionally high into the home teams (which are more often than not favourites) then the books can afford such a small overround on them.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> and neural networks for both asian market analysis and prediction <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
You mean predictions based on movements ? Why would you need neural networks for that ?
acw,
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> Next step is to follow the trend of the Asian market and simply bet with the slow to move bookies outside Asia. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Is there any slow to move book (asian handicap) outside Asia ? I'm afraid there's no one left.
"Is there any slow to move book (asian handicap) outside Asia ? I'm afraid there's no one left"
try wwts
"I have the home advantage (in goals) worked out for every european league, it goes for EPL 0.34 goals, but for Bundesliga it's as high as 0.62"
That does not surprise me about the german league, i would go along with that.
when the line moves out in asia, the euro 3way coupon is very slow to move - at alot of the books, you can get good value by keeping on eye out for things like that. Its all about prices boys
try wwts
"I have the home advantage (in goals) worked out for every european league, it goes for EPL 0.34 goals, but for Bundesliga it's as high as 0.62"
That does not surprise me about the german league, i would go along with that.
when the line moves out in asia, the euro 3way coupon is very slow to move - at alot of the books, you can get good value by keeping on eye out for things like that. Its all about prices boys
"Aren't they compensating ? As they cashflow is disproportionally high into the home teams (which are more often than not favourites) then the books can afford such a small overround on them."
Fair point, i hadn't thought of that, makes a lot of sense.
"neural networks for both asian market analysis and prediction"
"You mean predictions based on movements? Why would you need neural networks for that?"
I mean predictions OF the movements, based on previous movements, where in a sense you "train" the network to expect and foresee these movements based on previous ones, this is of course is task that's beaten many stock market analysts, but, of course much less factors are at play when is comes to asian handicap markets in soccer, than stock markets in general. But i am a novice in this field so i wont say anything more until i get a good grasp of its principles and applications.
Fair point, i hadn't thought of that, makes a lot of sense.
"neural networks for both asian market analysis and prediction"
"You mean predictions based on movements? Why would you need neural networks for that?"
I mean predictions OF the movements, based on previous movements, where in a sense you "train" the network to expect and foresee these movements based on previous ones, this is of course is task that's beaten many stock market analysts, but, of course much less factors are at play when is comes to asian handicap markets in soccer, than stock markets in general. But i am a novice in this field so i wont say anything more until i get a good grasp of its principles and applications.
So that are the result of all major european leagues ? They can be very different btw.
And from year to year!
In Asian handicap terms what used to be 1.5 goals in 1998 has now become 1 goal. Let the true handicap be at 1/1.5, so where in the old days one would bet on the outsider, now it is the favourite, but not with a 3 way bookie like Jack presents, but with Indosoccer where they give some 10% bonus on top of the favourite, so the 95% becomes 105%. Yum yum!
And from year to year!
In Asian handicap terms what used to be 1.5 goals in 1998 has now become 1 goal. Let the true handicap be at 1/1.5, so where in the old days one would bet on the outsider, now it is the favourite, but not with a 3 way bookie like Jack presents, but with Indosoccer where they give some 10% bonus on top of the favourite, so the 95% becomes 105%. Yum yum!
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>I have the home advantage (in goals) worked out for every european league, it goes for EPL 0.34 goals, but for Bundesliga it's as high as 0.62.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Matahari,
My numbers are roughly:
Bundesliga: 0.55 goals
Premier League: 0.42 goals
Primera Division: 0.53 goals
Serie A: 0.49 goals
Veikkausliiga: 0.33 goals
I've taken the number of home goals divided with the number of away goals and factored in the average number of goals in a given league. I've used the average of the last 5 seasons.
A long time ago I asked a question here regarding home advantage; (http://forum.therx.com/6/ubb.x?a=tpc&s=100090022&f=4933006845&m=74910423). I'd be very interested to see your numbers for the major European leagues and how you calculated them.
Matahari,
My numbers are roughly:
Bundesliga: 0.55 goals
Premier League: 0.42 goals
Primera Division: 0.53 goals
Serie A: 0.49 goals
Veikkausliiga: 0.33 goals
I've taken the number of home goals divided with the number of away goals and factored in the average number of goals in a given league. I've used the average of the last 5 seasons.
A long time ago I asked a question here regarding home advantage; (http://forum.therx.com/6/ubb.x?a=tpc&s=100090022&f=4933006845&m=74910423). I'd be very interested to see your numbers for the major European leagues and how you calculated them.
Duck,
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> My numbers are roughly:
Bundesliga: 0.55 goals
Premier League: 0.42 goals
Primera Division: 0.53 goals
Serie A: 0.49 goals
Veikkausliiga: 0.33 goals
I've taken the number of home goals divided with the number of away goals and factored in the average number of goals in a given league. I've used the average of the last 5 seasons. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
I don't think this is correct as you don't take into account the number of matches played. The basics of what I'm doing are: divide the goal difference by the number of matches played in a certain time frame, doesn't have to be a number of seasons, I for instance assign a certain number of days (say 1000 for the league or 2500 for national teams). Now, in order to catch up with recent results more weight has to be assigned to them than to the past results.
The last addition is a corner stone as you are probably aware that the numbers for home advantage may vary significantly from one season to another (e.g. EPL).
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> My numbers are roughly:
Bundesliga: 0.55 goals
Premier League: 0.42 goals
Primera Division: 0.53 goals
Serie A: 0.49 goals
Veikkausliiga: 0.33 goals
I've taken the number of home goals divided with the number of away goals and factored in the average number of goals in a given league. I've used the average of the last 5 seasons. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
I don't think this is correct as you don't take into account the number of matches played. The basics of what I'm doing are: divide the goal difference by the number of matches played in a certain time frame, doesn't have to be a number of seasons, I for instance assign a certain number of days (say 1000 for the league or 2500 for national teams). Now, in order to catch up with recent results more weight has to be assigned to them than to the past results.
The last addition is a corner stone as you are probably aware that the numbers for home advantage may vary significantly from one season to another (e.g. EPL).
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>A few more aspects i d like to look at, in the course of next season, would be regression to the mean team performances and gamblers awareness of it, or lack theirof of it and profitable openings, and neural networks for both asian market analysis and prediction, and soccer modelling, a very promising albeit particularly demanding field. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
here is a good article on regression to the mean with regard to team performance in the nfl, and gamblers' tendancy to ignore it and to overweight recent information:
http://www.economics.pomona.edu/GarySmith/footballOdds/footballOdds.html
here is a good article on regression to the mean with regard to team performance in the nfl, and gamblers' tendancy to ignore it and to overweight recent information:
http://www.economics.pomona.edu/GarySmith/footballOdds/footballOdds.html
yeah that's exactly what i was talking about, good to see someone has put it to the test with very good results accorging to this articale, so far i am getting very mixed results using by and large the same rationale for the asian handicap market, doing some very copious number crunching, we ll see...
well, after extensive, pointless, exhaustive number crunching i ve come to pretty much nowhere so far, and unless i get a good hang of access or any other database for that matter it will be very time consuming to put to test some ideas i ve been toying with.
ah, if you blindly bet $1 on the home team in the budensliga over the past 4 years (shopping around for the better line in, oh, about 4-5 bookmakers) you d have been $22 richer, if you d bet 1000, you d have been $22000 richer, maybe i should just market this "system" for a fee, right? LOL. Or i should just hire some computer geeks to do the number crunching work for me, i just dont trust the fvckers.
ah, if you blindly bet $1 on the home team in the budensliga over the past 4 years (shopping around for the better line in, oh, about 4-5 bookmakers) you d have been $22 richer, if you d bet 1000, you d have been $22000 richer, maybe i should just market this "system" for a fee, right? LOL. Or i should just hire some computer geeks to do the number crunching work for me, i just dont trust the fvckers.
chriscol brings a lot of expertise into it though.
my question is why?
over the past four years, with the exception of on year with a -$16 loss, betting blindly on all favourites, would result to $10 upwards profits. Are the bookmakers underestimating the favourites (i doubt), is the public overestimating the outsiders and pushing the line (most probably), are the favourites for some reason overperforming? Everyone chime in and help out here, tell us what you think, what your informed opinion or hunch is.
my question is why?
over the past four years, with the exception of on year with a -$16 loss, betting blindly on all favourites, would result to $10 upwards profits. Are the bookmakers underestimating the favourites (i doubt), is the public overestimating the outsiders and pushing the line (most probably), are the favourites for some reason overperforming? Everyone chime in and help out here, tell us what you think, what your informed opinion or hunch is.
