Illinois +600 to win the Big Ten

[russ1945]

And this

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width=720 border=1 itxtvisited="1"><TBODY itxtvisited="1"><TR itxtvisited="1"><TD width="10%" rowSpan=2 itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]

[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="27%" bgColor=#990000 itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]MICHIGAN STATE
Spartans[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="10%" bgColor=#990000 itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]Conf.
Rank[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="10%" bgColor=#990000 itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]Nat'l
Rank[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="9%" bgColor=#990000 itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]W-L
All[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="9%" bgColor=#990000 itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]W-L
Conf.[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="12%" bgColor=#990000 itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]Power
Rating[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="13%" bgColor=#990000 itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]Sched.
Rank[/SIZE]​

</TD></TR><TR itxtvisited="1"><TD width="27%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]2009 Projections[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="10%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]1[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="10%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]7[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="9%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]12-0[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="9%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]8-0[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="12%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]77.11[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="13%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]44[/SIZE]​

</TD></TR><TR itxtvisited="1"><TD colSpan=8 itxtvisited="1">

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 width=640 border=1 itxtvisited="1"><TBODY itxtvisited="1"><TR bgColor=#353535 itxtvisited="1"><TD colSpan=6 itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]2009 Schedule[/SIZE]​

</TD></TR><TR vAlign=bottom bgColor=#999999 itxtvisited="1"><TD width="9%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]Date[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="27%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]Game[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]Preseason
Pick[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]Game-Day
Pick[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]Actual
Score[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]Game-Day
Pick W/L[/SIZE]​

</TD></TR><TR itxtvisited="1"><TD width="9%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]9/5[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="27%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]Montana State (FCS)[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]W (-34.56)[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]W (-34.56)[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#dedede itxtvisited="1"><TD width="9%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]9/12[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="27%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]Central Michigan[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]W (-6.49)[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD></TR><TR itxtvisited="1"><TD width="9%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]9/19[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="27%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]at Notre Dame[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]W (-3.61)[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#dedede itxtvisited="1"><TD width="9%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]9/26[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="27%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]at Wisconsin[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]W (-6.70)[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD></TR><TR itxtvisited="1"><TD width="9%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]10/3[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="27%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]Michigan[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]W (-18.58)[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#dedede itxtvisited="1"><TD width="9%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]10/10[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="27%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]at Illinois[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]W (-5.86)[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD></TR><TR itxtvisited="1"><TD width="9%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]10/17[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="27%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]Northwestern[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]W (-11.51)[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#dedede itxtvisited="1"><TD width="9%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]10/24[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="27%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]Iowa[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]W (-3)[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD></TR><TR itxtvisited="1"><TD width="9%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]10/31[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="27%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]at Minnesota[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]W (-2.05)[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#dedede itxtvisited="1"><TD width="9%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]11/7[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="27%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]Western Michigan[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]W (-15.99)[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD></TR><TR itxtvisited="1"><TD width="9%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]11/14[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="27%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]at Purdue[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]W (-13.08)[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD></TR><TR bgColor=#dedede itxtvisited="1"><TD width="9%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]11/21[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="27%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]Penn State[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]W (-2.19)[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD><TD width="16%" itxtvisited="1">

[SIZE=-1]?[/SIZE]​

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 width=280 border=1 itxtvisited="1"><TBODY itxtvisited="1"><TR align=middle bgColor=#353535 itxtvisited="1"><TD colSpan=3 itxtvisited="1">[SIZE=-1]Regular Season Record[/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=#999999 itxtvisited="1"><TD width="30%" itxtvisited="1">[SIZE=-1]Year[/SIZE]</TD><TD width="35%" itxtvisited="1">[SIZE=-1]Projected[/SIZE]</TD><TD width="35%" itxtvisited="1">[SIZE=-1]Actual[/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR align=middle itxtvisited="1"><TD width="30%" itxtvisited="1">[SIZE=-1]1994[/SIZE]</TD><TD width="35%" itxtvisited="1">[SIZE=-1]6-5[/SIZE]</TD><TD width="35%" itxtvisited="1">[SIZE=-1]5-6[/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=#dedede itxtvisited="1"><TD width="30%" itxtvisited="1">[SIZE=-1]1995[/SIZE]</TD><TD width="35%" itxtvisited="1">[SIZE=-1]1-10[/SIZE]</TD><TD width="35%" itxtvisited="1">[SIZE=-1]6-4-1[/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR align=middle itxtvisited="1"><TD width="30%" itxtvisited="1">[SIZE=-1]1996[/SIZE]</TD><TD width="35%" itxtvisited="1">[SIZE=-1]6-5[/SIZE]</TD><TD width="35%" itxtvisited="1">[SIZE=-1]6-5[/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=#dedede itxtvisited="1"><TD width="30%" itxtvisited="1">[SIZE=-1]1997[/SIZE]</TD><TD width="35%" itxtvisited="1">[SIZE=-1]6-5[/SIZE]</TD><TD width="35%" itxtvisited="1">[SIZE=-1]7-4[/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR align=middle itxtvisited="1"><TD width="30%" itxtvisited="1">[SIZE=-1]1998[/SIZE]</TD><TD width="35%" itxtvisited="1">[SIZE=-1]8-3[/SIZE]</TD><TD width="35%" itxtvisited="1">[SIZE=-1]6-5[/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=#dedede itxtvisited="1"><TD width="30%" itxtvisited="1">[SIZE=-1]1999[/SIZE]</TD><TD width="35%" itxtvisited="1">[SIZE=-1]6-5[/SIZE]</TD><TD width="35%" itxtvisited="1">[SIZE=-1]9-2[/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR align=middle itxtvisited="1"><TD width="30%" itxtvisited="1">[SIZE=-1]2000[/SIZE]</TD><TD width="35%" itxtvisited="1">[SIZE=-1]7-4[/SIZE]</TD><TD width="35%" itxtvisited="1">[SIZE=-1]5-6[/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=#dedede itxtvisited="1"><TD width="30%" itxtvisited="1">[SIZE=-1]2001[/SIZE]</TD><TD width="35%" itxtvisited="1">[SIZE=-1]5-6[/SIZE]</TD><TD width="35%" itxtvisited="1">[SIZE=-1]6-5[/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR align=middle itxtvisited="1"><TD width="30%" itxtvisited="1">[SIZE=-1]2002[/SIZE]</TD><TD width="35%" itxtvisited="1">[SIZE=-1]7-5[/SIZE]</TD><TD width="35%" itxtvisited="1">[SIZE=-1]4-8[/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=#dedede itxtvisited="1"><TD width="30%" itxtvisited="1">[SIZE=-1]2003[/SIZE]</TD><TD width="35%" itxtvisited="1">[SIZE=-1]4-8[/SIZE]</TD><TD width="35%" itxtvisited="1">[SIZE=-1]8-4[/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR align=middle itxtvisited="1"><TD width="30%" itxtvisited="1">[SIZE=-1]2004[/SIZE]</TD><TD width="35%" itxtvisited="1">[SIZE=-1]7-5[/SIZE]</TD><TD width="35%" itxtvisited="1">[SIZE=-1]5-7[/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=#dedede itxtvisited="1"><TD width="30%" itxtvisited="1">[SIZE=-1]2005[/SIZE]</TD><TD width="35%" itxtvisited="1">[SIZE=-1]5-6[/SIZE]</TD><TD width="35%" itxtvisited="1">[SIZE=-1]5-6[/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR align=middle itxtvisited="1"><TD width="30%" itxtvisited="1">[SIZE=-1]2006[/SIZE]</TD><TD width="35%" itxtvisited="1">[SIZE=-1]7-5[/SIZE]</TD><TD width="35%" itxtvisited="1">[SIZE=-1]4-8[/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=#dedede itxtvisited="1"><TD width="30%" itxtvisited="1">[SIZE=-1]2007[/SIZE]</TD><TD width="35%" itxtvisited="1">[SIZE=-1]4-8[/SIZE]</TD><TD width="35%" itxtvisited="1">[SIZE=-1]7-5[/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR align=middle itxtvisited="1"><TD width="30%" itxtvisited="1">[SIZE=-1]2008[/SIZE]</TD><TD width="35%" itxtvisited="1">[SIZE=-1]7-5[/SIZE]</TD><TD width="35%" itxtvisited="1">[SIZE=-1]9-3[/SIZE]</TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=#999999 itxtvisited="1"><TD width="30%" itxtvisited="1">[SIZE=-1]Total[/SIZE]</TD><TD width="35%" itxtvisited="1">[SIZE=-1]86-85[/SIZE]</TD><TD width="35%" itxtvisited="1">[SIZE=-1]92-78-1[/SIZE]</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>​

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[bigtendominator]

Grading overall talent, neither OSU or PSU are anything close to Florida. Thus, I think it's unwise to assume OSU/PSU are going to walk through the b10 schedule. If OSU/PSU were in sec or b12 this year, they would be at best 3rd place teams.

Sorry, but if you think Florida's overall talent is that much superior to OSU/PSU than wise it on draft day more guys guy from Ohio State and Penn State than Florida.

 

[ChiTownHustler]

Russ

I see STATE losing to Wisconsin, Illinois and Iowa (coin toss).
Sparty will take PSU down hard to end the season, esp. if the Lion has alot on the line.
If the team gels after the Wisconsin loss they may be able to beat Iowa, but that game will come down to the wire. They will lose to ILL. no doubt.

For a B10 future pick other than the obvious OSU play, I'd go with Iowa or N'western.

 

[ChiTownHustler]

GoBlue

As for the ILLINI, losses against tOSU and Minny are almost certain. PSU and N'west will be dogfights as well. I don't see the value. Rather take N'west at 30-1 or something.

 

[GoSooners]

GoBlue

As for the ILLINI, losses against tOSU and Minny are almost certain. PSU and N'west will be dogfights as well. I don't see the value. Rather take N'west at 30-1 or something.

I'm curious to see what the public thinks of Illinois betting-wise. Under Zook they have traditionally done terrible in the favorites role. They lost 3 games straight up last season alone as favorites. I think they do much better when the expectations aren't so high. Especially from an ATS betting standpoint.

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

b10dominator, last season florida was mostly so & jr and they did have wr drafted.

Florida is returning 99% tackles made by defensive players from last years squad.

So, since OSU & PSU had so many guys drafted last year, how does that make them anything close regarding overall talent to Florida, OU or Texas THIS season? USC had alot of players drafted and I do think this season they will be a notch weaker than they've been the past few years.

The answer is simple...they aren't as talented.

If OSU loses to USC this year at home, stick a sock in the elite program and the road game argument theories for a while.

Being an Ohio guy, I wish Pryor had the overall talent around him this season that they had last season, but it looks like he may have to carry the team.

The position the b10 really gets exposed versus the better SEC, B12, and USC the past few years is the DEFENSIVE LINE.

How many defensive line high round picks has OSU, PSU, or any other team in the b10 sent to the NFL the past several years? PSU sent Courtney Brown to the pros and he flopped.

Everyone here has an opinion, but imo it's incorrect to post here OSU & PSU are above and beyond superior teams to grant automatic W against teams like Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, MSU, Minnesota, Wisc.

 

[russ1945]

b10dominator, last season florida was mostly so & jr and they did have wr drafted.

Florida is returning 99% tackles made by defensive players from last years squad.

So, since OSU & PSU had so many guys drafted last year, how does that make them anything close regarding overall talent to Florida, OU or Texas THIS season?

The answer is simple...they aren't as talented.

Being an Ohio guy, I wish Pryor had the overall talent around him this season that they had last season, but it looks like he may have to carry the team.

The position the b10 really gets exposed versus the better SEC, B12, and USC the past few years is the DEFENSIVE LINE.

How many defensive line high round picks has OSU, PSU, or any other team in the b10 sent to the NFL the past several years? PSU sent Courtney Brown to the pros and he flopped.

Everyone here has an opinion, but imo it's incorrect to post here OSU & PSU are above and beyond superior teams to grant automatic W against teams like Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, MSU, Minnesota, Wisc.

Comment: Ohio State returns players who scored only 8.6ppg last year. They rate #50 on my base ratings which does not account for reloading and replacing the other 19.40ppg that departed. I think you are right, how much support will Pryor get and how long will it take for it to measure up to LY's offensive output. The defense has long been their strong point but you still have to put points on the board.

 

[russ1945]

I'm curious to see what the public thinks of Illinois betting-wise. Under Zook they have traditionally done terrible in the favorites role. They lost 3 games straight up last season alone as favorites. I think they do much better when the expectations aren't so high. Especially from an ATS betting standpoint.

GS: I agree. All the hype about Illinois is about having an improved team not about success ATS. I say 8 straight up wins and they are happy campers.

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

I'll discount it a bit, since it was the week prior to going to USC.

However, the week 2 game against OHIO UNIVERSITY, revealed OSU just isn't the same class as the elite teams.

OHIO moved the ball against the "great Buckeye defense" the entire game.

OSU needed +4 turnovers and some favorable 2h calls to win that game 26-14.



Illinois is similar to USF. Good teams with some very good individual players, capable of pulling off upsets here and there. However, incapable of winning every game they are heavily favored to win.

 

[BlackRaspChip]

I think using Ohio St's performance against sub-BCS type opponents is the last thing you should resort to to criticize their performance.

Per cfbnews.com

"The fact of the matter is that Ohio State remains every bit the powerhouse it was when it was 4-0 in BCS games and came up with wins in 2006 over Texas in Austin and an unbeaten Michigan squad. Just as important, it's not like the team loses to the weak and the sad. OSU has the longest streak in the nation of not losing to a team that didn't end up in the BCS, and it's not even close. The last loss to a non-BCS bound team was against Purdue on November 13, 2004. That's a run of 53 straight games, and over four years ago, while USC's streak is at ten, as is Florida's. Oklahoma's streak is at 17, Alabama's is at 15, Utah's is at 14, Texas's is at four, and LSU's at one. So yes, Ohio State is having problems with the who's who programs in a given year, but it's not coming up with any egregious errors."

53 consecutive games without losing to a team not in a BCS game certainly opposes your insinuation that OSU's performance against lesser teams somehow degrades their stature.

Pertaining to the subject of the thread though, IMO Illinois is a top 3 Big Ten team this year. Their performance @ PSU last year went under the radar, save for a couple of unfortunate breaks, they actually acquitted themselves quite well. Juice Williams and Regis Benn and Jeff Cumberland were all inexperienced players who got caught up in the hype following their surprise '07 campaign. They're all upperclassmen now, and shouldn't read into their own press clippings like they did last year. I think most who watched the Big Ten last year agree that Illinois was a top 3 or 4 team in the Big Ten talent-wise last year, they just were big headed from their previous season.

The thing to keep in mind...taking Michigan State or Iowa or any other non-PSU/OSU team to win the Big Ten might seem more reasonable, but those teams aren't even on the plane of PSU/OSU talent-wise. They just don't athletically match up. If you saw MSU's performances against the top 2 teams in the Big Ten last year, it was painfully obvious. The one team that if they put it all together has the talent to compete with, and beat the top two, is Illinois. Granted, they were a bit of a headcase last season and need some good bounces here or there....but that's why they're +600 and not +200. Talent-wise this is easily the 3rd best (at worst) team in the Big Ten in 2009.

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

I've watched OSU struggle the past two years versus 2 mediocre mac schools. Ohio last season 4-8 and 2007 Akron who also finished 4-8 that season.

If somehow OSU gets to a title game and again has to play Florida, it will be painful to watch.

I'd like to know how many pro OSU guys in this thread are betting them at +1200 to win BCS or +250 to win the b10?

 

[BlackRaspChip]

Following up on that.

Yardage wise Illinois last season:

vs. Mizzou....532-549, comparable yardage, threw for 451, struggled to replace Mendenhall, first game of season without him. 8 penalties, to 3 for Mizzou


vs. PSU....372-422, was -1 in the turnover battle. Was outgained by 50 yards, ran for 189, threw for 183. Key stat, 5 Illinois penalties to 1 for PSU...typical of a tough road game.

vs. OSU.....455-354, threw for 241 ran for 214, outgained OSU, but lost, -1 in turnovers, even in penalties

vs. Iowa, even game, even yardage

Those aren't numbers of a team that can't compete athletically, but it shows their immaturity with the turnovers and penalty issues.



Compared to MSU:

vs. OSU, outgained by 80 at home, outrushed 216-52, -5 in turnovers

vs. PSU, outgained by over 200 yards, outrushed by 100, , +2 turnovers

vs. Georgia, outgained by 95, only 31 yards rushing

MSU is the classic 3rd or 4th place team who gets there by winning the games they're supposed to, and losing the ones they're supposed to. D'Antonio's system is one that won't get his team beat, but will prevent them from beating teams who overmatch them. Thus, they smash the teams whom they have a talent advantage over, but get overmatched by those who don't, and don't have enough playmakers to make up for it.

MSU will again go 8-4, 9-3, beat the teams they should, and be overmatched by the upper-echilon teams.

Comparing the two teams, Illinois obviously acquitted themselves more strongly against top competition.

Illinois schedule sets up as such that if they beat Ohio State to open the Big Ten season, they're quite possibly home free as the team to beat, starting the season 3-0 with wins over Mizzou and OSU. Beat Penn State in the next game at home, and they essentially have a 2 game lead, with OSU and PSU still to play each other. Even a loss at OSU, still allows for a 7-1 finish.

The key though, is the placement of the OSU game. Illinois returns much of their offensive personnel, and will be a well run machine by the time they go to Columbus.

OSU will still be putting final touches on a new look defense and offense, and Illinois will be the best offense they've faced at that point. (Yes, better than USC). Also, OSU will not have faced an Illinois-type offense yet. For much of the defense, it will be their first full-time look as starters at the spread-option type Illinois offense. Illinois won't stop many people, so their key is to get into shootouts. If they can put up 4-5 TD's in Columbus, they have a chance.

MSU on the other hand is looking 1-2 straight in the face with trips to Camp Randall and Champaign to open the Big Ten season. With a 1-2 record, and loss to Illinois, the Illinois would essentially already hold the advantage over the Spartans for the Big Ten crown.

One look at the Iowa schedule (@PSU, @OSU, @MSU, @WIS) is enough to nearly eliminate them. They'd esentailly have to go 3-1 at worst in those games, and even then would be losing the tie breaker to another top 3 team. 4-0, or even 3-1 is a lot to ask of a team who isn't returning 18 or 19 starters.

 

[bigtendominator]

I've watched OSU struggle the past two years versus 2 mediocre mac schools. Ohio last season 4-8 and 2007 Akron who also finished 4-8 that season.

If somehow OSU gets to a title game and again has to play Florida, it will be painful to watch.

I'd like to know how many pro OSU guys in this thread are betting them at +1200 to win BCS or +250 to win the b10?

I will take them to win the Big 10. They have to play exactly 3 games to win the National Title, that is the least amount next to Penn State.

Also, you are forgetting the Pryor factor, this guy is going to be VY this year 2004, not VY 2005, at least not yet.

 

[BlackRaspChip]

I've watched OSU struggle the past two years versus 2 mediocre mac schools. Ohio last season 4-8 and 2007 Akron who also finished 4-8 that season.

Last year I watched LSU give up 31 to Troy in a game they shoudl have lost.

In 2007 I watched Florida give up 31 to Troy, and saw them give up 500 yards of offense to a 'slow, plodding, boring' Michigan team.

Last year, I watched Alabama struggle mightily with Tulane and get made to look like a high school team by Mountain West Utah. In 2007 I saw them almost lose at home to Houston, and lose at home to UL Monroe.

In 2007 I saw Texas almost lose at home to Arkansas State, and nearly get upset by UCF.

In '06 I saw UAB give Oklahoma all they could handle. The year before they lost at home as 28 point favorites to TCU.

USC lost at home as 40 point favorites to a pathetic Stanford team.

In '07 Georgia barely held off Troy while giving up 34 points. A season after they squeaked out a 1 point home win over a terrible Colorado team.

But OSU is really the only team who struggles with lesser competition ever. Shame on them for not playing their best game against lesser competition. The difference between Florida, USC, Texas, Ohio State, and Oklahoma against lesser competion? For 53 games, when OSU has struggled, they've still won. The others in this group have managed to lose to UL Monroe, TCU, and nearly lose to UAB, Arkansas State, Colorado, and UCF.

 

[bigtendominator]

Last year I watched LSU give up 31 to Troy in a game they shoudl have lost.

In 2007 I watched Florida give up 31 to Troy, and saw them give up 500 yards of offense to a 'slow, plodding, boring' Michigan team.

Last year, I watched Alabama struggle mightily with Tulane and get made to look like a high school team by Mountain West Utah. In 2007 I saw them almost lose at home to Houston, and lose at home to UL Monroe.

In 2007 I saw Texas almost lose at home to Arkansas State, and nearly get upset by UCF.

In '06 I saw UAB give Oklahoma all they could handle. The year before they lost at home as 28 point favorites to TCU.

USC lost at home as 40 point favorites to a pathetic Stanford team.

In '07 Georgia barely held off Troy while giving up 34 points. A season after they squeaked out a 1 point home win over a terrible Colorado team.

But OSU is really the only team who struggles with lesser competition ever. Shame on them for not playing their best game against lesser competition. The difference between Florida, USC, Texas, Ohio State, and Oklahoma against lesser competion? For 53 games, when OSU has struggled, they've still won. The others in this group have managed to lose to UL Monroe, TCU, and nearly lose to UAB, Arkansas State, Colorado, and UCF.

Also, since 2005 OSU has lost to following teams with following final rankings:

Texas #1
PSU #4

Florida #1

LSU #1
Illinois #24 or # 25

USC #4 or so
PSU #15 or so
Texas #3 or so

Not exactly teams that are chopped liver.

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

BlackChip,

What you HAVE NOT mentioned is that during that same time period, WE ALL have watched OSU LOSE to Florida, LSU, USC and lose 2 of 3 games versus Texas.

I see you have slid BAMA into your side of the argument regarding elite teams...eventhough they were 6-7 in '06 and 7-6 in '07.

Playing your game, do you think OSU would have beaten OU (Okla not Ohio) any of the past few seasons?

Until OSU beats an elite team or two in an elite game, OSU shouldn't be mentioned among those teams.

OSU has their shot to beat USC this year in Columbus.

If they lose that game, I'm not sure what excuses you guys will have, but I'm sure you'll spin something.

 

[trentmoney]

Also, since 2005 OSU has lost to following teams with following final rankings:

Texas #1
PSU #4

Florida #1

LSU #1
Illinois #24 or # 25

USC #4 or so
PSU #15 or so
Texas #3 or so

Not exactly teams that are chopped liver.

Illinois was not ranked when they upset ohio st

that was the crime of them getting to the rose bowl
they went from unranked to upsetting the #1 team and then beating a crappy NW team at home the following week and then all of a sudden they're in the Rose Bowl vs USC

 

[bigtendominator]

Illinois was not ranked when they upset ohio st

that was the crime of them getting to the rose bowl
they went from unranked to upsetting the #1 team and then beating a crappy NW team at home the following week and then all of a sudden they're in the Rose Bowl vs USC

Listed are the final rankings.

 

[TOOTIGHT]

BlackChip,

What you HAVE NOT mentioned is that during that same time period, WE ALL have watched OSU LOSE to Florida, LSU, USC and lose 2 of 3 games versus Texas.

I see you have slid BAMA into your side of the argument regarding elite teams...eventhough they were 6-7 in '06 and 7-6 in '07.

Playing your game, do you think OSU would have beaten OU (Okla not Ohio) any of the past few seasons?

Until OSU beats an elite team or two in an elite game, OSU shouldn't be mentioned among those teams.

OSU has their shot to beat USC this year in Columbus.

If they lose that game, I'm not sure what excuses you guys will have, but I'm sure you'll spin something.

Woof,
I'm not here to back up OSU but I don't think there is any evidence out there that would suggest Ohio St. couldn't have beaten OU these past few years. OU has been busy loosing BCS games just like Ohio St., the only difference is OSU lost to better teams aside from last year. Then judging by the only other common denominator, vs. Texas and again it appears OSU "could" beat OU hypotheically. Not saying I would put all my money on OSU in that matchup but I sure as hell wouldn't be backing OU either.

If you consider OU an elite program, I don't see how you can leave OSU off that list.

 

[TOOTIGHT]

BlackRaspChip,

The thing with Illinois last season that a lot of people forget was their horrible play on special teams. The opposing team started their drives from the 40 yard line most of the time in '08. The punting game was dismal. The turning point in both the PSU and Mizzou games were back breaking returns for TD's. The Illini could go 7-5 this year if they do not fix the special teams.

Another thing about last year's team, aside from the top 20 pre-season ranking and over hyped prior rose bowl appearance that hurt I think was "Illinois The Football Journey". They had a f'ing TV show last year on the Big Ten network. Not only is everyone patting them on the back, they have cameras following them around all season. This team forgot why it over achieved the year before and thought they could just show up and win games. This season I see them bringing more focus but this team is still a HUGE ? because of the defense.

I will wait until camp before I really start disecting their D for this year.