If you want to win bowl games ATS at a staggering clip....2016-17

[PeePee]

4-0 ATS and the first ML Dog winner with Minnesota bringing back +320. Kansas State up next tomorrow.

BOL to all.

A&F

Thanks sir... your effort are very welcome every bowl season. No wonder we always bring up your thread around December.

On a side note, similar to this bowl pool thread, 10 out of last 11 bowl games this season the <40% teams at SI had covered the ATS. Something to consider.

Ind and NW are next if it's hold

 

[Biz]

So counting the Boise game, which it looks like they will lose.. Favorites will be 4-15 in bowl games so far...

Regression is going to be very soon and probably very big...

Or... the regression can start next year.

You're forgetting one key point. These are heavily bet favorites we are going against. Playing dogs with low public support works well every year. Nobody is saying bet every dog. We are betting the dogs the public hates.

This thread wins every year. You should have jumped on from the beginning.

 

[ryanphan]

good sofar KS

 

[Biz]

5-0.

 

[AcesandFaces]

Here are the results and subsequent plays from this years cards:

216. Memphis +5 (13-4) PLAY ON WESTERN KY. -5 (12/20)

224. Louisiana Tech -5 (18-3) PLAY ON NAVY +5 ** (12/23)

229. Mississippi State -14 (19-2) PLAY ON MIAMI OHIO +14 * (12/26)

240. Washington State -7 (31-0) PLAY ON MINNESOTA +7 * (12/27)

249. Texas A&M -3 (21-5) PLAY ON KANSAS STATE +3 ** (12/28)

257. Georgia -1 (32-2) PLAY ON TCU +1 ** (12/30)

268. LSU -3 (23-4) PLAY ON LOUISVILLE +3** (12/31)

273. Clemson +3 (39-14) PLAY ON OHIO STATE -3 (12/31)

275. Florida -3 (21-6) PLAY ON IOWA +3 ** (1/2)

277. Wisconsin -8 (29-3) PLAY ON WESTERN MICHIGAN +8 * (1/2)

281. Oklahoma -4 (32-5) PLAY ON AUBURN +4 ** (1/2)


Just a couple of quick notes...

-The asterisks (*) indicate a ML play for me on the corresponding sides. A single asterisk (*) is a 10% ML play relative to my ATS investment and a Double asterisk (**) is a 20% ML play relative to my ATS investment. (I.E. a $2K ATS bet will have either a corresponding $200 ML BET or a corresponding $400 ML BET).

-The cards were sent out early/mid week of 12/5, and obviously much has transpired with the Minnesota incident and subsequent line on that game.

-Players selected more dogs this time around; particularly with Memphis and Clemson...saw more split action than ever before.

-More split action on the Bama / UW game than I thought.....Bama -15 brought close to 60/40 action (33-21).

-The Florida State / Michigan game brought almost dead even action...(26-28) Michigan -7.

BOL to all this bowl season. Seems to be a strange card to me, but the players have spoken.

Let's get it!...
A&F

5-0 ATS with 2 of the 4 Underdogs winning straight up. Nice job KState at +3 and +140 ML. TCU +1 is on deck.

Let's get it!

 

[Lvtexholdm]

5-0 ATS with 2 of the 4 Underdogs winning straight up. Nice job KState at +3 and +140 ML. TCU +1 is on deck.

Let's get it!

A BIG Thankyou)(&AF. Besides winning all 5 str8 games, won a very nice 5 Teamer.

 

[jnav]

A + F

Great thread and awesome strategy, and many thanks brother, for bring it forward to us poor saps. BTW, T Hawk...regression to what mean, professor? Over the last 4 years, the sample size, not including this bowl season was ~148 total bowl games. 32 wins ATS v. 15 losses ATS over that time span equates to around 68% win rate, which is pretty damn impressive. 148 sample size is pretty solid, which doesn't include this season. Thanks Aces

 

[EMOCKE]

A + F

Great thread and awesome strategy, and many thanks brother, for bring it forward to us poor saps. BTW, T Hawk...regression to what mean, professor? Over the last 4 years, the sample size, not including this bowl season was ~148 total bowl games. 32 wins ATS v. 15 losses ATS over that time span equates to around 68% win rate, which is pretty damn impressive. 148 sample size is pretty solid, which doesn't include this season. Thanks Aces

I think you misunderstand. I am pretty sure the OP is referring to the balance of this year REGRESSING back to the mean of 68% (the running win rate), and to be aware of that for the last 6 games. For example, 3-3 on the last six, still puts this season at 8-3 (better than the running average). I myself will be riding this until the dogs stop barking.... to each their own.

 

[jnav]

not sure if that's what he meant emocke, but who cares. BOL

 

[Biz]

I think you misunderstand. I am pretty sure the OP is referring to the balance of this year REGRESSING back to the mean of 68% (the running win rate), and to be aware of that for the last 6 games. For example, 3-3 on the last six, still puts this season at 8-3 (better than the running average). I myself will be riding this until the dogs stop barking.... to each their own.

He was referring to dogs in general, and that is the reason it would affect the "bowl system".

"there is going to be a regression very soon and that will be very bad for your bowl system as it's almost all dogs being played..."

What he is ignoring, and its the point of the entire thread, is that we are playing AGAINST THE PUBLIC.

If we were blindly playing every dog, then of course it would regress to the mean. We aren't playing every dog, we are playing dogs the public hates. Its a sound wagering strategy that is sound in logic, and oh by the way, has been profitable for years.

 

[jnav]

yup, and "oh, by the way" that's why I am thanking him for sharing. I never questioned the validity or philosophy of his strategy, so I have no idea what your beef is. Good God. :aktion033

 

[AcesandFaces]

A + F

Great thread and awesome strategy, and many thanks brother, for bring it forward to us poor saps. BTW, T Hawk...regression to what mean, professor? Over the last 4 years, the sample size, not including this bowl season was ~148 total bowl games. 32 wins ATS v. 15 losses ATS over that time span equates to around 68% win rate, which is pretty damn impressive. 148 sample size is pretty solid, which doesn't include this season. Thanks Aces

You're welcome jnav.

 

[Biz]

yup, and "oh, by the way" that's why I am thanking him for sharing. I never questioned the validity or philosophy of his strategy, so I have no idea what your beef is. Good God. :aktion033

Geezus relax.

I thought it was pretty clear I was referring to T Hawk and not you. I quoted someone else, not you. The response was to the other person, not you.

You really couldn't figure that out??

 

[AcesandFaces]

He was referring to dogs in general, and that is the reason it would affect the "bowl system".

"there is going to be a regression very soon and that will be very bad for your bowl system as it's almost all dogs being played..."

What he is ignoring, and its the point of the entire thread, is that we are playing AGAINST THE PUBLIC.

If we were blindly playing every dog, then of course it would regress to the mean. We aren't playing every dog, we are playing dogs the public hates. Its a sound wagering strategy that is sound in logic, and oh by the way, has been profitable for years.

5 down with 6 to go Biz. Hope we finish strong!

 

[Biz]

A/F,

Love almost every play left. Leaning Clemson, but I'm already on the others.

 

[AcesandFaces]

A/F,

Love almost every play left. Leaning Clemson, but I'm already on the others.

That Clemson OSU game should be a great game.

 

[jnav]

sorry biz...my bad.

 

[GoForBroke]

Extraordinary.

 

[DC.]

great run aces....we shall pound tcu next

 

[Biz]

sorry biz...my bad.

No worries.