fantastic day as the formula plays go 5-1 and buy me a ticket to settletown with both of my locals 
here is the recap, titans were the stinker of the bunch
13-4-1 since i started tracking it 3 weeks ago
looks like the implied leans did well too
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here is the recap, titans were the stinker of the bunch
13-4-1 since i started tracking it 3 weeks ago
looks like the implied leans did well too
| Favorite (xls) | xls line | westgate | variance | play | Result |
| Arizona Cardinals | -3.10 | 3.0 | 6.10 | Arizona +3 | Win |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -4.46 | -1.5 | 2.96 | TB-1.5 | Win |
| New England Patriots | -4.55 | -7.0 | 2.45 | Giants +7 | Win |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -6.93 | -4.5 | 2.43 | Pitt-4.5 | Win |
| Carolina Panthers | -3.21 | -5.5 | 2.29 | Tenny +5.5 | Loss |
| St. Louis Rams | -4.93 | -7.0 | 2.07 | Chi+7 | Win |
| New York Jets | -3.47 | -2.50 | 0.97 | ||
| Washington Redskins | -0.94 | 0.00 | 0.94 | ||
| Cincinnati Bengals | -9.69 | -10.50 | 0.81 | ||
| Green Bay Packers | -10.71 | -11.50 | 0.79 | ||
| Oakland Raiders | -2.41 | -3.0 | 0.59 | ||
| Baltimore Ravens | -5.05 | -5.5 | 0.45 | ||
| Denver Broncos | -5.58 | -6.0 | 0.42 | ||
| Philadelphia Eagles | -6.52 | -6.5 | 0.02 | ||
| Week 10 | Total | ||||
| Win | 5 | Win | 13 | ||
| Loss | 1 | Loss | 4 | ||
| Push | 0 | Push | 1 | ||
| Week 9 | |||||
| Win | 4 | ||||
| Loss | 1 | ||||
| Push | 0 | ||||
| Week 8 | |||||
| Win | 4 | ||||
| Loss | 2 | ||||
| Push | 1 |
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thanks phd. it is the line I calculate for the game using portions of the matchup info in post #36 (for each game). it then spits out what it thinks the line should be for each game. when the line for the westgate contest comes out on Wednesday I just find any games where my line using the excel spreadsheet info is more than 2 points off of what the westgate line is. this past week there were six games where the line I came up with was more than 2 points off which became the plays.
doesnt look like this will be spitting out many plays based on the early lines I see, but will run it against the westgate line tomorrow
naturally it likes Miami vs. Dallas this week given that Romo has been out for so long it has really pulled the Cowboys ratings down since this is a data driven approach so can kind of toss that one out
that leaves only three or maybe four games that would qualify depending on the line...liked 4 dogs and 2 favs last week...looks like three (maybe four) favs this week
would like more plays, but feel pretty good that it is spitting out numbers close to the posted line for most games
naturally it likes Miami vs. Dallas this week given that Romo has been out for so long it has really pulled the Cowboys ratings down since this is a data driven approach so can kind of toss that one out
that leaves only three or maybe four games that would qualify depending on the line...liked 4 dogs and 2 favs last week...looks like three (maybe four) favs this week
would like more plays, but feel pretty good that it is spitting out numbers close to the posted line for most games
Dang, looks like the cards line has moved a point so it will likely no longer qualify as a play depending on the westgatge line. The Vikes are the only side it likes right now that doesnt have special circumstances/big QB change. I cal;culated the lines before and after updating the underlying data this week to isolate the impact of week 10 games on the line the formula produces and the trend for the team(s). I might have to look at some of the leans this week for personal plays. Will update the plays later on after westgate numbers come out. Thoughts welcome......good luck all!
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| Favorite (xls) | xls line thru wk 9 | xls line thru wk 10 | trend | early line | variance | notes |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | -2.1 | -3.2 | 1.08 | -3.0 | 0.18 | |
| Carolina Panthers | -10.3 | -8.5 | -1.82 | -7.0 | 1.51 | |
| Oakland Raiders | -3.3 | -1.7 | -1.62 | -2.0 | 0.30 | |
| Miami Dolphins | -3.5 | -4.2 | 0.71 | 0.0 | 4.19 | romo back, not in numbers |
| Atlanta Falcons | -6.5 | -6.5 | 0.00 | -6.0 | 0.48 | |
| Baltimore Ravens | -2.8 | -4.0 | 1.21 | -2.0 | 1.98 | |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -5.7 | -5.5 | -0.17 | -5.50 | 0.02 | |
| Denver Broncos | -3.2 | -0.5 | -2.71 | 1.50 | 2.02 | huge downtrend built in,qb change/upgrade? |
| New York Jets | -1.1 | -0.7 | -0.40 | 0.74 | ||
| Kansas City Chiefs | -0.3 | -1.3 | 0.96 | -3.00 | 1.74 | |
| Minnesota Vikings | -2.0 | -3.3 | 1.23 | -1.0 | 2.26 | |
| Seattle Seahawks | -10.7 | -11.9 | 1.29 | -12.5 | 0.55 | |
| Arizona Cardinals | -5.4 | -6.2 | 0.79 | -4.0 | 2.18 | |
| New England Patriots | -9.8 | -8.6 | -1.14 | -7.0 | 1.64 |
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Down to one play for this week (Minny) after some line movement. I also personally played Denver and Balto but they dont really qualify so wont include in tracking this. Tossed the Dallas game out given that this is a numbers based approach and Dallas' info has been dragged down so much in Romo's absence. The "thru week 9" line is just for reference to see the impact of the week 10 game for each team on the line. Was hoping for more plays, but this basically says all the lines are pretty close to what they should be this week. Even Minny is only 2.26 points off based on this (>2 is a play). Last week the biggest variance was Arizona @ 6.1 points off. Good luck all.
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| xls line | |||||||
| Favorite (xls) | thru wk 9 | thru wk 10 | trend | westgate line | variance | play | notes |
| <strike>Miami Dolphins</strike> | <strike>-3.5</strike> | <strike>-4.2</strike> | <strike>0.71</strike> | <strike>0.0</strike> | <strike>4.19</strike> | None | romo back, not in #'s, out too long, big change |
| Minnesota Vikings | -2.0 | -3.3 | 1.23 | -1.0 | 2.26 | Minny -1 | |
| Baltimore Ravens | -2.8 | -4.0 | 1.21 | -2.0 | 1.98 | Lean Balto | |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -0.3 | -1.3 | 0.96 | -3.0 | 1.74 | Lean SD | |
| New England Patriots | -9.8 | -8.6 | -1.14 | -7.0 | 1.64 | Lean Pats | |
| Denver Broncos | -3.2 | -0.5 | -2.71 | 1.0 | 1.52 | Lean Broncos | |
| Carolina Panthers | -10.3 | -8.5 | -1.82 | -7.0 | 1.51 | Lean Panthers | |
| New York Jets | -1.1 | -0.7 | -0.40 | -2.0 | 1.26 | Lean Texans | |
| Arizona Cardinals | -5.4 | -6.2 | 0.79 | -5.0 | 1.18 | Lean Cards | |
| Atlanta Falcons | -6.5 | -6.5 | 0.00 | -5.5 | 0.98 | Lean Falcons | |
| Seattle Seahawks | -10.7 | -11.9 | 1.29 | -12.5 | 0.55 | Lean 49ers | |
| Oakland Raiders | -3.3 | -1.7 | -1.62 | -2.0 | 0.30 | no lean | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | -2.1 | -3.2 | 1.08 | -3.0 | 0.18 | no lean | |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -5.7 | -5.5 | -0.17 | -5.5 | 0.02 | no lean |
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Going to try and run them today in case I want to play the turkeyday games in the contest. On vacation in Hawaii, but have been getting crushed with work stuff so havent been able to enjoy much yet or spend time looking at games much. Was 0-1 last week with the one play it had. Will post what i have later today.
Picks went 0-1 last week. See if she can get back on track! Kind of like some of the teams it likes this week :think2: . Three dogs, a pick-em and a fav. Good luck and happy thanksgiving all!
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spreadsheet plays went 2-3 last week....six for sunday....happy Friday and good luck this weekend RX
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| xls line | ||||||
| Favorite (xls) | thru wk 11 | thru wk 12 | trend | westgate line | variance | play |
| Miami Dolphins | -1.23 | -0.19 | -1.0 | -4.00 | 3.81 | Ravens |
| New York Giants | -2.83 | -1.27 | -1.6 | 2.50 | -3.77 | Giants |
| Cincinnati Bengals | -5.73 | -5.74 | 0.0 | -9.50 | 3.76 | Browns |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -5.12 | -4.22 | -0.9 | -7.00 | 2.78 | Colts |
| Denver Broncos | -2.04 | -1.68 | -0.4 | -4.00 | 2.32 | Chargers |
| Chicago Bears | -9.37 | -9.27 | -0.1 | -7.00 | -2.27 | Bears |
| New England Patriots | -10.79 | -11.08 | 0.3 | -9.50 | -1.58 | lean pats |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -1.49 | -1.18 | -0.3 | -2.50 | 1.32 | lean oak |
| Arizona Cardinals | -5.94 | -6.62 | 0.7 | -5.50 | -1.12 | lean az |
| Buffalo Bills | -5.72 | -4.49 | -1.2 | -3.50 | -0.99 | lean buff |
| Carolina Panthers | -6.35 | -7.76 | 1.4 | -7.00 | -0.76 | lean car |
| Minnesota Vikings | -1.47 | -0.73 | -0.7 | 0.00 | -0.73 | lean vikes |
| Washington Redskins | -4.55 | -4.89 | 0.3 | -4.50 | -0.39 | |
| Tennessee Titans | -2.20 | -2.34 | 0.1 | -2.50 | 0.16 | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -1.35 | -1.56 | 0.2 | -1.50 | -0.06 |
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| Total | |
| Win | 15 |
| Loss | 8 |
| Push | 1 |
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