for what it is worth here is what the formula I have been using in the spreadsheet spits out for its line (no adjustment for injuries)
i go against what it says sometimes but take a closer look at games with bigger deltas from what is available
i do take some comfort in that it is actually really close on a number of games vs having an opinion on all
Carolina -10.6
Pats -10.5
Denver -1.9
Seattle -0.9
Jets -1.4
Rams -7.9
Bengals -0.9
Saints -0.4
Houston -2
Cards -7.7
Balt -3.6
Falcons -7.1
Chiefs -2.5
Vikings -0.7
if anyone wants to see the matchup for a game just let me know and i can post it. good luck this weekend offshore rx
i go against what it says sometimes but take a closer look at games with bigger deltas from what is available
i do take some comfort in that it is actually really close on a number of games vs having an opinion on all
Carolina -10.6
Pats -10.5
Denver -1.9
Seattle -0.9
Jets -1.4
Rams -7.9
Bengals -0.9
Saints -0.4
Houston -2
Cards -7.7
Balt -3.6
Falcons -7.1
Chiefs -2.5
Vikings -0.7
if anyone wants to see the matchup for a game just let me know and i can post it. good luck this weekend offshore rx
recap. Looks like I should have just followed my calculated line on a few. Games with 2+ points of variance are 4-1-1 with Carolina the third strongest play based on the #'s. Unfortunately for me, I stayed off dallas and cards...didnt trust em for some reason....took detroit (shitty way to start the day!)
have Carolina pending in supercontest (2x)
had denver in supercontest
had tampa, cinnci and rams in supercontest (spreadsheet said no play)
had jets in supercontest (small lean oak/no play in spreadsheet...uggh)
had giants in supercontest 2x (push)
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have Carolina pending in supercontest (2x)
had denver in supercontest
had tampa, cinnci and rams in supercontest (spreadsheet said no play)
had jets in supercontest (small lean oak/no play in spreadsheet...uggh)
had giants in supercontest 2x (push)
| Game | xls line | westgate | variance | play | play |
| Seattle -0.9 | -0.9 | -6 | 5.1 | take Dallas +6 | WIN |
| Denver -1.9 | -1.9 | 3 | -4.9 | take Denver +3 | WIN |
| Carolina -10.6 | -10.6 | -6.5 | -4.1 | take Carolina - 6.5 | ??? |
| Cards -7.7 | -7.7 | -5 | -2.7 | take Cards -5 | WIN |
| Saints -0.4 | -0.4 | -3 | 2.6 | take Giants +3 | PUSH |
| Pats -10.5 | -10.5 | -8 | -2.5 | take Pats -8 | WIN |
| Chiefs -2.5 | -2.5 | -5 | 2.5 | take Lions +5 | Loss |
| Jets -1.4 | -1.4 | -2.5 | 1.1 | 1.1 value oak | |
| Houston -2 | -2 | -3 | 1 | 1 value tenn | |
| Bengals -0.9 | -0.9 | 0 | -0.9 | <1 | |
| Vikings -0.7 | -0.7 | -1.5 | 0.8 | <1 | |
| Rams -7.9 | -7.9 | -8.5 | 0.6 | <1 | |
| Falcons -7.1 | -7.1 | -7 | -0.1 | <1 | |
| Balt -3.6 | -3.6 | -3.5 | -0.1 | <1 |
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here is what the spreadsheet spits out in terms of lines and variances > 2 points.....purely formula...no adjustment for injuries, no extra emphasis on recent play, etc....
see how it does.....i am personally (for $) on TB + 3, Car +3 and Dallas +3...rooting for a number of others for contest plays (and getting not getting 3 in the contest for some that I played)....good luck today everyone
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see how it does.....i am personally (for $) on TB + 3, Car +3 and Dallas +3...rooting for a number of others for contest plays (and getting not getting 3 in the contest for some that I played)....good luck today everyone
| Team | xls line | westgate | variance | play | Result |
| Tampa | -1.0 | 2.5 | 3.47 | TB | |
| Buffalo | -6.2 | -3 | 3.16 | Buff | |
| Minny | -4.1 | -1.5 | 2.57 | Minn | |
| New Orleans | -5.2 | -7.5 | 2.30 | Tenn | |
| Carolina | -4.6 | -2.5 | 2.13 | Car | |
| Pitt | -2.0 | -4 | 1.95 | ||
| Jets | -8.4 | -6.5 | 1.88 | ||
| Philly - | -0.6 | -2.5 | 1.86 | ||
| Devner | -3.5 | -5 | 1.51 | ||
| Cinnci | -10.5 | -11.5 | 0.97 | ||
| San Diego | -4.5 | -4 | 0.49 | ||
| San Fran | 7.1 | 7 | 0.15 | ||
| New England | -13.5 | -13.5 | 0.04 |
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Recap...kicking myself as I go 1-2 and worse in the contest after putting all this work into the spreadsheet and its line and then dont trust it (again) and it goes 4-1 and now 8-3-1 since tracking it...frustrating sunday but fun weekend...camping with son and then made and handed out ~50 sandwhiches and other leftovers from the camping group trip down on skid row....literally didnt see another car down there in a ~three block area other than cops...brought my pitt mix and put a table in the sliding door area of the van to distribute but had zero issues and almost everyone said thanks which was a pleasant surprise....shit was gone in ~10 mins....i wanted to keep moving so handed them out in three different quick stops....going to try and go more often....i should have more time since i am going to blindly play the top 5 from the spreadsheet next week...my capping just seems to fuck it up...lol
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| Team | xls line | westgate | variance | play | Result |
| Tampa | -0.97 | 2.50 | 3.47 | TB+2.5 | Loss |
| Buffalo | -6.16 | -3.00 | 3.16 | Buff-3 | Win |
| Minny | -4.07 | -1.50 | 2.57 | Minn-1.5 | Win |
| New Orleans | -5.20 | -7.50 | 2.30 | Tenn+7.5 | Win |
| Carolina | -4.6 | -2.500 | 2.13 | Car+2.5 | Win |
| Pitt | -2.05 | -4.0 | 1.95 | ||
| Jets | -8.38 | -6.5 | 1.88 | ||
| Philly - | -0.64 | -2.5 | 1.86 | ||
| Devner | -3.49 | -5 | 1.51 | ||
| Cinnci | -10.53 | -11.5 | 0.97 | ||
| San Diego | -4.49 | -4 | 0.49 | ||
| San Fran | 7.15 | 7 | 0.15 | ||
| New England | -13.54 | -13.5 | 0.04 | ||
| Week 9 | |||||
| Win | 4 | ||||
| Loss | 1 | ||||
| Push | 0 | ||||
| Week 8 + 9 | |||||
| Win | 8 | ||||
| Loss | 3 | ||||
| Push | 1 |
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thanks mm... they were +2.5 in westgate and i had them incorrect in spreadsheet as -2.5
https://www.westgatedestinations.co...hotel-casino/casino/supercontest-weekly-card/
so actually that game would have been the biggest variance as the spreadsheet said carolina -4.6 and they were getting 2.5 using the westgate line
i try to update the numbers on wed before the contest lines come out
then i do a bunch of research and end up on the wrong games!
solid work. i think you're onto something.
post it earlier tho
will do, hopefully it doesnt flop now....i kid you not i actually exited off the 5 freeway and posted these on the way back from camping with my 6 year old...was about 10 mins from manhattan beach but knew i wouldnt be home in time for the 10am kickoffs...i was a good dad the rest of the weekend...promise!
Thanks MikeB and Michelangelo. Here is what I get for week 10. Going to use the westgate line to determine the final plays for consistency, but it looks like it likes Arizona, Giants, Pitt, Chicago and Tampa. See how she does!
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I might be jumping on at the wrong time since it has been hot, but I already played:
T.B. BUCCANEERS -1½-110
PIT STEELERS -4½-110
Chicago Bears +7½ -115
New York Giants +7½ -110
Arizona Cardinals +3½ -110
good luck all
| Favorite (xls) | xls line | early line | variance | early play |
| Arizona Cardinals | -3.10 | 3.0 | 6.10 | Arizona +3 |
| New England Patriots | -4.55 | -7.0 | 2.45 | Giants +7 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -6.93 | -4.5 | 2.43 | Pitt-4.5 |
| St. Louis Rams | -4.93 | -7.0 | 2.07 | Chi+7 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -4.46 | -1.5 | 2.96 | TB-1.5 |
| Washington Redskins | -0.94 | 1.0 | 1.94 | |
| Carolina Panthers | -3.21 | -5.0 | 1.79 | |
| New York Jets | -3.47 | -2.5 | 0.97 | |
| Denver Broncos | -5.58 | -6.5 | 0.92 | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | -9.69 | -10.5 | 0.81 | |
| Green Bay Packers | -10.71 | -11.5 | 0.79 | |
| Baltimore Ravens | -5.05 | -5.5 | 0.45 | |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -6.52 | -6.50 | 0.02 | |
| Oakland Raiders | -2.41 | off | tbd |
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I might be jumping on at the wrong time since it has been hot, but I already played:
T.B. BUCCANEERS -1½-110
PIT STEELERS -4½-110
Chicago Bears +7½ -115
New York Giants +7½ -110
Arizona Cardinals +3½ -110
good luck all
here are the final plays using the westgate line....I was able to get a better line on a few, but will continue to use westgate to measure how this does
only change is that the titans become a play...good luck this weekand and happy Friday
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only change is that the titans become a play...good luck this weekand and happy Friday
| Favorite (xls) | xls line | westgate line | variance | play |
| Arizona Cardinals | -3.10 | 3.0 | 6.10 | Arizona +3 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -4.46 | -1.5 | 2.96 | TB-1.5 |
| New England Patriots | -4.55 | -7.0 | 2.45 | Giants +7 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | -6.93 | -4.5 | 2.43 | Pitt-4.5 |
| Carolina Panthers | -3.21 | -5.5 | 2.29 | Tenny +5.5 |
| St. Louis Rams | -4.93 | -7.0 | 2.07 | Chi+7 |
| New York Jets | -3.47 | -2.5 | 0.97 | |
| Washington Redskins | -0.94 | 0.0 | 0.94 | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | -9.69 | -10.5 | 0.81 | |
| Green Bay Packers | -10.71 | -11.5 | 0.79 | |
| Oakland Raiders | -2.41 | -3.0 | 0.59 | |
| Baltimore Ravens | -5.05 | -5.5 | 0.45 | |
| Denver Broncos | -5.58 | -6.0 | 0.42 | |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -6.52 | -6.5 | 0.02 | |
| Week 9 | ||||
| Win | 4 | |||
| Loss | 1 | |||
| Push | 0 | |||
| Week 8 + 9 | ||||
| Win | 8 | |||
| Loss | 3 | |||
| Push | 1 |
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here are some of the stats for the Cardinals @ Seahawks....spreadsheet/formula really likes the Cards...says wrong team favored
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| Offense | Defense | |||||||
| Home | Away | League | Home | Away | League | |||
| Team Name>>>>> | Seattle Seahawks | Arizona Cardinals | Avg | Team Name>>>>> | Seattle Seahawks | Arizona Cardinals | Avg | |
| Item | Detail | Detail | Detail | Item | Detail | Detail | Detail | |
| Points Scored | 20.9 | 32.9 | 23.5 | Points Allowed | 17.5 | 19.1 | 23.4 | |
| Yards Req'd Per Point | 16.89 | 12.69 | 15.3 | Yards Req'd Per Point Allow | 16.28 | 16.38 | ||
| Offensive Rank - Total | 19 | 3 | -- | Defense Rank - Total | 2 | 3 | ||
| Offensive Rank - Rush | 3 | 9 | -- | Defense Rank - Rush | 9 | 4 | ||
| Offensive Rank - Pass | 28 | 4 | -- | Defense Rank - Pass | 2 | 7 | ||
| Yards/Game - Total | 353.1 | 417.4 | 359 | Yards/Game - Total | 284.9 | 312.8 | 359 | |
| +64.3 | +27.9 | |||||||
| Yards/Game - Pass | 213.6 | 292.6 | 249.1 | Yards/Game - Pass | 186.4 | 222.6 | 248.8 | |
| +79 | +36.2 | |||||||
| Yards/Game - Rush | 139.5 | 124.8 | 110.3 | Yards/Game - Rush | 98.5 | 90.1 | 109.8 | |
| +14.7 | +8.4 | |||||||
| Passing Attempts per Game | 29.3 | 33.0 | 36.0 | Passed on Per Game | 30.3 | 36.6 | 36.0 | |
| Completion % | 69% | 64% | 64% | Completion % Allowed | 63% | 60% | 64% | |
| Yards Per Pass Att | 8.0 | 9.1 | 7.3 | Yards Allow Per Pass Att | 6.2 | 6.1 | 6.9 | |
| +1.062 | +0.06 | |||||||
| Yards Per Pass Completion | 11.7 | 14.2 | 11.5 | Yds Allow Per Pass Compl | 9.8 | 10.1 | 10.9 | |
| +2.512 | +0.307 | |||||||
| Rushing Att per Game | 30.6 | 27.8 | 26.5 | Rushing Att per Game | 26.1 | 23.6 | 26.5 | |
| Yards per Rush | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.2 | Yards per Rush | 3.8 | 3.8 | 4.2 | |
| +0.09 | +0 | +0 | ||||||
| Sacks Taken | 31 | 11 | 18 | Sacks | 20 | 13 | 18 | |
| 3rd Down Conversion % | 37.6 | 46.2 | 38.6 | 3rd Down Conversion % | ||||
| Fumbles Lost (pass) | 1 | 3 | 1.3 | Forced Fumbles | 6 | 6 | 6.6 | |
| Fumbles Lost (rush) | 0 | 3 | 1.7 | |||||
| INTs Thrown | 6 | 6 | 7.3 | INTs (takeaways) | 3 | 13 | 7.3 | |
| Penalties # | 51 | 47 | 59.9 | |||||
| Penalty Yards | 459 | 378 | 503.2 | |||||
| 1st Downs/Game | 18.4 | 22.8 | 20.5 | |||||
| 4th Down Conversion % | 80 | 60 | 55.0 | |||||
| 4th Downs Made | 4 | 3 | 4.0 | |||||
| Passing TDs | 9 | 20 | 13.7 | Passing TD Allowed | 6 | 13 | 13.7 | |
| Rushing TDs | 3 | 8 | 6.2 | Rushing TD Allowed | 6 | 3 | 6.2 |
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