For those guys quoting results, that is YOUR database with YOUR closing numbers. These results will vary GREATLY depending on when and where you got the line. Also figuring out if the line s were all "balanced" as in at or close to -110.
That is what makeas all this a very slippry slope. A book might have -4, but at +108, so on the "buy" it might figure to a -3 -110. So what is more correct? Using the -4 at the plus vig or the -3 at the more "correct" vig?
That is where the calculations take a drastic turn. It is simple to throw out data that is "unblanced". I have been trying to get a program that "balances" it all off first, and then figure it out. That is why I do not have everything set in stone, and my guesses, are more guesstimates.
As I said I looked over the list and saw a lot of lines that were NOT -110, and not even close. SO you have to somehow figure out a fair and equitable balance. That is generally based more on theory than fact. But in most cases I just use Pinny for an example (since people think they have the valuation "correct".)
So if I have a bunch of games that closed -5 +105, and they had scoirng differential of 4 and 6, then balancing those off (in regards to getting one point "better" BOTH ways) then you have to figure the vig BOTH ways.
Like I said, I don't think it is really worth it to figure out what getting a point of more will do for you, it is hard enough getting the right side in thefirst place.
But people like to try and prove how smart they are by throwing shit out there that may or may not be relevant.
Not you per se, but a lot of people that have their snide comments but rarely if ever provide any facts, other than "I am smarter than you that is enough" attitude.
A lot of that going aroud lately, and generally when they do try and offer proof of their prowess/logic in the form of opinions and plays they get buried. SO matbe that is why the masses would rather have people THINK they are smarter then try and offer something that only proves they are not.
That is what makeas all this a very slippry slope. A book might have -4, but at +108, so on the "buy" it might figure to a -3 -110. So what is more correct? Using the -4 at the plus vig or the -3 at the more "correct" vig?
That is where the calculations take a drastic turn. It is simple to throw out data that is "unblanced". I have been trying to get a program that "balances" it all off first, and then figure it out. That is why I do not have everything set in stone, and my guesses, are more guesstimates.
As I said I looked over the list and saw a lot of lines that were NOT -110, and not even close. SO you have to somehow figure out a fair and equitable balance. That is generally based more on theory than fact. But in most cases I just use Pinny for an example (since people think they have the valuation "correct".)
So if I have a bunch of games that closed -5 +105, and they had scoirng differential of 4 and 6, then balancing those off (in regards to getting one point "better" BOTH ways) then you have to figure the vig BOTH ways.
Like I said, I don't think it is really worth it to figure out what getting a point of more will do for you, it is hard enough getting the right side in thefirst place.
But people like to try and prove how smart they are by throwing shit out there that may or may not be relevant.
Not you per se, but a lot of people that have their snide comments but rarely if ever provide any facts, other than "I am smarter than you that is enough" attitude.
A lot of that going aroud lately, and generally when they do try and offer proof of their prowess/logic in the form of opinions and plays they get buried. SO matbe that is why the masses would rather have people THINK they are smarter then try and offer something that only proves they are not.
Terrible. Vig ALWAYS matters. It matters no matter how many bets you make, no matter what winning % etc etc.
For me at least, vig only matters when you lose.
And you will likely lose >45% of the time.
So best explanation is spot better should get best spread with best vig, and long term players should focus on best vig first, then best number.
No, you go for whichever gives the best value. ALWAYS. There is definitely a best option, even when both options give you the same ev (go for better line which means higher winrate, allowing you to bet a little more for no extra volatility).
For me at least, vig only matters when you lose.
And you will likely lose >45% of the time.
So best explanation is spot better should get best spread with best vig, and long term players should focus on best vig first, then best number.
No, you go for whichever gives the best value. ALWAYS. There is definitely a best option, even when both options give you the same ev (go for better line which means higher winrate, allowing you to bet a little more for no extra volatility).
The relationship between spread and a tie.
If we deep dive into push chart and we should get an idea how often the extra point would result in a push for that particular spread.
It depends, but if you cross key number like 7 in nba and 3 in nfl, then probably yes.
Spread like +15 will tie less often and thus less valuable.
If we deep dive into push chart and we should get an idea how often the extra point would result in a push for that particular spread.
It depends, but if you cross key number like 7 in nba and 3 in nfl, then probably yes.
Spread like +15 will tie less often and thus less valuable.
