ice man said:
Yes that would work but I would like to caution you that while this year so far they are 51.2%, historically the figures each year will fall very, very close to 50%. I have tracked these things for many years and the linemaker does an absolutely fantastic job of keeping things very close to 50%.
I know most people will say that buying the hook or the 1/2 pt is wrong but it makes me feel better and I do it sometimes. I always make a -3.5 into a -3 in baskets to make it 1 possession. Also +1.5 into +2,-2.5 into -2, & +2.5 into +3. I can usually find this for less than the full dime now at bet exchanges. For me at least, vig only matters when you lose.
You cannot simply look at openers and closers either, that is the problem. You have to look at the BEST number, be it opener, closer, or somewhere in the middle.
This year has been a small anomoly in terms of expectation. It is almost a 3% difference for a one point "better" number overall. Generally it is a little over 2%. (assuming the BEST number available) which isn't possible to get every time.
Vig is more important than spread, that is a general rule of thumb to carry with you.
When people can't even agree on what the best number is/was, then trying to figure out the specifics is impossible.
Half the guys will tell you they got -4, while some guys with exchanges or a rogue books got -3.5 at some point. (both assuming -110). While some will say they took -4 -110, but now can get -4.5 +103. The people will try and tell you which is "better". When there really is no answer. Although they will continue to cite how much Pinny or other books charge for a half point or a point, which is irrelevant.
There is no secret formula, the less you have taken out on a win is always the best policy. Or the less you risk up front for a better pay off on a win (depending on if you lay 110 to win 100 or 100 to win 90.90).
Unless you aremaking thousands of bets or thousands of dollars, then even that (vig) is slightly overrated.
So best explanation is spot better should get best spread with best vig, and long term players should focus on best vig first, then best number.
This year has been a small anomoly in terms of expectation. It is almost a 3% difference for a one point "better" number overall. Generally it is a little over 2%. (assuming the BEST number available) which isn't possible to get every time.
Vig is more important than spread, that is a general rule of thumb to carry with you.
When people can't even agree on what the best number is/was, then trying to figure out the specifics is impossible.
Half the guys will tell you they got -4, while some guys with exchanges or a rogue books got -3.5 at some point. (both assuming -110). While some will say they took -4 -110, but now can get -4.5 +103. The people will try and tell you which is "better". When there really is no answer. Although they will continue to cite how much Pinny or other books charge for a half point or a point, which is irrelevant.
There is no secret formula, the less you have taken out on a win is always the best policy. Or the less you risk up front for a better pay off on a win (depending on if you lay 110 to win 100 or 100 to win 90.90).
Unless you aremaking thousands of bets or thousands of dollars, then even that (vig) is slightly overrated.
So best explanation is spot better should get best spread with best vig, and long term players should focus on best vig first, then best number.
Both NBA and NCAA is about 2.5% since 1995 in terms of a 1/2 and 1 point differential making a difference. Mostly a push to a win, or a loss to a push. From a loser to a winner it is actually less than 1%(not exactly sure the results as I can't break thm down that specifically, but by looking over the results.)
This year it is slightly more for some reason, at least in the NCAA, in the NBA it is hard to tell since it is a smaller sample size.
But since most epopel don't reguallry get a full point off an extreme then this data is not something that people have to really worry about.
As I have said in the past about this data, it is OK to have, but not all that relevant to betting. Basically it makes for good debates.
This year it is slightly more for some reason, at least in the NCAA, in the NBA it is hard to tell since it is a smaller sample size.
But since most epopel don't reguallry get a full point off an extreme then this data is not something that people have to really worry about.
As I have said in the past about this data, it is OK to have, but not all that relevant to betting. Basically it makes for good debates.
If you can pick/recognize winning sides (teams not spreads) then vig is hands down the most important factor. 80% of the time even getting the VERY BEST number does not matter.
People that always site getting the "best" spread or the most "valuable" number are simply not "good" enough so they rely on these marginal advantages to make the difference between winning and losing for them.
While it is important, it is vastly overrated by 99% of the bettors out there. Ifit isn't a factor with their style of betting then it is a waste of time for them to worry about it.
People that always site getting the "best" spread or the most "valuable" number are simply not "good" enough so they rely on these marginal advantages to make the difference between winning and losing for them.
While it is important, it is vastly overrated by 99% of the bettors out there. Ifit isn't a factor with their style of betting then it is a waste of time for them to worry about it.
wantitall4moi said:
...sorry, that's really not correct. Real number is 3.7% +/- 0.4 (99% confidence interval) added to the win %, that's pushes to wins on whole numbers, pushes to wins on .5s and losses to pushes on wholes off the denom. Loss to push is 2.1% - Push to win is 1.82% - Loss to win is 1.97%
Based on about 9 seasons.
ucking:
