I hope you guys know how to convert Matchbook lines...

[CalvinTy]

I do the same Calvin, esp. since I recently started to examine this stuff closer.

Sometimes I have to go out or something, then I just accept. lines certainly can move late, I'd rather have a few cents worse, than no action.

So, you agree with me now, Calvin ?

Right, same idea, sometimes I make bets within 5 minutes of start time, so I just accept, too. Although, I try to offer something for 3 or 4 minutes, then at the 1-minute mark, I finally accept the bet if my offer isn't taken by then, LOL. Can be last-minute like that.

I think we seem to be on same page now, especially that I didn't completely cover the fact that the 1% comes after every bet. I haven't re-verified the numbers, but you explained it well enough.

I just knew that with amounts of $100's, obviously it's about 1+ cent more in true price (i.e. -114 is really -115 after commission) so easier to just add 2 cents (-114 is really -116). So I was both agreeing with your 2-cent thought but at same time, my numbers were right about 1% commission, I just didn't add it into the formula correctly, I think.

* CalvinTy

 

[Doug]

that's all great if you have no intention to leave the computer screen.

another pitfall to the queue system is that the line can move against you. You are now stuck with NO BET whereas you could have accepted an offer earlier at a better price.

don't get me wrong, I also use the queue system, but its not perfect.

if im rushing out to dinner and want to place some bets, well its just not good enough for me to leave the house knowing if I have action or not.

MLB is a different animal than NFL (especially on Sunday)

very similar here....time to go out....you take an offer !

Stuff like team totals and 5 inning bets are tough to match. Often somebody makes a market with Pinny lines, so take 2 cents worse than Pinny, or you have to use 5Dimes, Phoenix, Bookmaker,etc. Usually MB is still better there, unless you have Pinny. I have to accept a lot of these....or pass !

I sometimes intentionally take a worse ( but close) line at another book, because I want to keep funds available at Matchbook.

 

[CalvinTy]

Now, I've probably created a monster.... more guys that will only offer, and not accept ?

Nah, I thought the same. But it has been going on for months now and people are willing to accept bets because they feel they get the best bang for their buck by getting the best price with a small commission --- and still probably get best price than any other books (even Pinny). *They* don't want the line to move against them so they grab it before the other side realized his offer was too good and withdraw because he can offer for a worse price and still have it accepted.

that's all great if you have no intention to leave the computer screen.

another pitfall to the queue system is that the line can move against you. You are now stuck with NO BET whereas you could have accepted an offer earlier at a better price.

Yes, but for a move to be "no good', following the "2 cent" guideline, if you "thought about" accepting a bet at +103 (favorite showing -104), but decide to offer first at +104/-104 instead, and oops, few minutes later, the underdog is now only +102 (with favorite now showing -103). You now decide to make a 2nd offer of +103/-103. Someone else loves getting -103 on favorite and grabs all of -103, which includes your 2nd offer.

Which is better?

Answer is your 2nd offer.

Because:

1st choice was: Paying 1% on +103
2nd choice was: Trying to offer +104/-104 that moved against you
3rd choice was: 2nd offer of +103/-103 got matched

1st choice would be about +101.5 after -1.0% commission, but 3rd choice got your 2nd offer matched at +103 and you got +0.2% commission (+103.2 or something).

The move would have to be at least 3-4 cents against you to make your first offer to be "no good". Of course, people want to make bets so they don't want to wait for a match, so that's my patience paying off, though.

* CalvinTy

 

[Doug]

1st choice was: Paying 1% on +103
2nd choice was: Trying to offer +104/-104 that moved against you
3rd choice was: 2nd offer of +103/-103 got matched

1st choice would be about +101.5 after -1.0% commission, but 3rd choice got your 2nd offer matched at +103 and you got +0.2% commission (+103.2 or something).

The move would have to be at least 3-4 cents against you to make your first offer to be "no good". Of course, people want to make bets so they don't want to wait for a match, so that's my patience paying off, though.

* CalvinTy

1st choice (+103) is 102/101= +101 @) you're a full half cent off, Calvin !

 

[Doug]

Quiz for SS ( only) !

NFL

current offers at MB are :

Clev +630
Balt -780

Convert these to effective lines, at a normal book !

Which is better, and why against Pinny lines:

Sun 9/27 407 Cleveland Browns +13.5 -101 +620 OVER 38.5 -101
10:00 AM 408 Baltimore Ravens -13.5 -107 -800 UNDER 38.5 -109

 

[Doug]

No cheating, Ya hear me !

Correct answer is try to get Clev +770, or Balt -640 at MB, of course.

You can't do this ( SS), have to bet it right now.

Which line is better ( on each side), MB or Pinny ?

You need to able to figure this out, IMO !

Nobody else answer, leave it for SS !

 

[AlwaysKeen]

wow you guys are amazing with numbers and theory...impressive stuff...

 

[Doug]

I still need Calvin to see that this is +101, not +101.5 !, with his own numbers....then we will have come full circle on this !

Pags: We are amateurs compared to SBR's Ganchrow....that dude is THE mathman....but he lacks the ability to explain things with simplicity...He is light years beyond me in Math !

I never even took any college Math, he could teach it !

This MB stuff is like barely Algebra one, if that !. However it's mathy enough to confuse most of us.

I aim to educate us with this.

Guys like Calvin , and Sean ( real smart man), can get this wrong ! Nevermind SS, but he's not recognized for Math.

Let's just learn, together !

 

[SportSavant]

LOL this is going to be twice as hard as i just woke up from a nap.

781/99 = -789 (true fav line at matchbook)
629/101 = +623 (true dog line at matchbook?

I did these based on the formula above, or is it different because we had such a big fav in tis case?

 

[Doug]

Quiz for SS ( only) !

NFL

current offers at MB are :

Clev +630
Balt -780

Convert these to effective lines, at a normal book !



Which is better, and why against Pinny lines:

Sun 9/27 407 Cleveland Browns +13.5 -101 +620 OVER 38.5 -101
10:00 AM 408 Baltimore Ravens -13.5 -107 -800 UNDER 38.5 -109

waiting on you Savant (?).... @)

 

[SportSavant]

post # 89

 

[Doug]

Ya, got it SS, rounded, but that's what I wanted you do to, no need to overly complicate it
-789 at MB , beats a Pinny -800, so Balt line is better at MB !

MB also beats beats Pinny's +620 with +623

All this at :

MB's -780/ +630

to

Pinny's -800/ +620

Commission is tiny on larger spreads

That ML will tighten at MB, but already beats Pinny, and almost certainly any book on this planet !

MB is a must have out !

 

[Doug]

I'm glad to SS, now gets it !

at least he trusts the math, maybe he doesn't just "see" which line is better, like I usually can, but that's a great start !

 

[Doug]

Doug, Fish,

can one of you guys post at SBR asking ganchrow to outline the simplest formula for us?

I've never met a smarter dude than Ganchrow, he's awesome with Math ( as a student).

He's likely a genius with an 190 IQ, but he lacks the ability to teach, what he knows, to guys lesser than him ( mathwise), like me and SS.

I'm clearly better with Math than SS, but Ganchy is like another species, compared to me !

He is awesome, met him 2-3 times in person, but also too smart a guy. I felt inferior being in his presence !

He isn't perfect, though !

Ganchy lacks the ability to convey his Knowledge to others, effectively, he'd be an awful college professor ( IMO).

Knowing and being able to teach are different !

I can give SS his MB formula ( have to think more than, Ganchy), better, Ganchy would complicate it.

 

[SportSavant]

I'm glad to SS, now gets it !

at least he trusts the math, maybe he doesn't just "see" which line is better, like I usually can, but that's a great start !

knowing how to plug in the formula and GETTING IT are still to different things.

i still dont understand why the forumula is the way it is.

 

[SportSavant]

maybe he doesn't just "see" which line is better, like I usually can

i can "see" which is the better line (most of the time) purpose of this thread simply to figure out and understand the forumula.

im 1/2 way there becoz now i have the forumla, next step is figuring out why it is what it is.

im taking a break tho... many more important fish to fry.

 

[Doug]

knowing how to plug in the formula and GETTING IT are still to different things.

i still dont understand why the forumula is the way it is.

I'm not the best at writing the equations, SS, it isn't even really about that. I do think I did it correctly, though !

Nobody has said I'm wrong, so I'd trust the "Doug" math on this !....at least until somebody defines an error in my logic, and proves it !


SS : Ride with me, until (unless ) , I'm proven wrong ! ( Doubtful)

Knowing the conversion formula is 99% of it, anyways !

Being able to write it, out is 1% ( at most !)

Understanding it fully enough to write an equation for it, is better !

Math is not everybody's strength !

 

[Doug]

I tried Ganchy, to get the expert to opine....

1. Ganchrow has exceeded their stored private messages quota and cannot accept further messages until they clear some space.

<!--/POSTERROR do not remove this comment-->

 

[Doug]

Is this thread "Classic" yet ?

I want two classics as my legacy , if I die too/ morrow, or something.

Got one with the Freeplay/Matchplay thing. ( ?)

Is my life now complete ?

 

[SportSavant]

Is this thread "Classic" yet ?

normally its not the thread originator that nominates their own threads as classic!

its supposed to come from the people!

everybody loves an "atta boy" but it just doesn't mean as much when someone requests it themselves as opposed to getting it naturally.

patience doug. the nomination will come.

d1g1t