The only thing that really matters is if you are buying or selling. Just like stocks! If you have a home and aren't going to sell it, what difference does the price make except for bragging rights. If you're buying and the price isn't right you can afford to wait unless you're forced to buy! Historically prices will continue to rise just like the stock market with dips in between.
RE agenst keep scaring the buyers telling them the prices just are going higher, and the public buys their BS. If buyers started waiting for a good deal and pulled back their bids, you wouldn't see the prices going so high.
Interest rates are going higher, and the speculators who took a shot for continued higher prices will soon be selling these homes at discount prices to get their money free or give them back to the banks. It happens all the time.
RE agenst keep scaring the buyers telling them the prices just are going higher, and the public buys their BS. If buyers started waiting for a good deal and pulled back their bids, you wouldn't see the prices going so high.
Interest rates are going higher, and the speculators who took a shot for continued higher prices will soon be selling these homes at discount prices to get their money free or give them back to the banks. It happens all the time.
Interesting as the talk of regional hot spots is, what I find more interesting is the fact that if you look around a bit, these hot spots are occuring in a number of places, soaring property prices are not confined to regions within the U.S or even to the U.S,
Prices over the last 10 years or so have also rocketed in both Australia and the U.K.
I don't know about how they've fared by comparison in mainland Europe, still I find it interesting that as a house is by far the largest financial commitment that most people will ever make, it's odd that more people don't seem outraged by the ludicrous prices of basic housing these days.
Prices over the last 10 years or so have also rocketed in both Australia and the U.K.
I don't know about how they've fared by comparison in mainland Europe, still I find it interesting that as a house is by far the largest financial commitment that most people will ever make, it's odd that more people don't seem outraged by the ludicrous prices of basic housing these days.
kiss1...speak for yourself about being fuggin dumb...what did you say you did for a living...working security at the wynn...wow wee that takes a lot of intelligence...what did you study...how to be a fake police officer...i have happened to live in vegas since '97 and i or my wife are not fuggin stupid as you like to refer to it as...where i work, i would say out of the 400 employee's we have 99.999999999% have a higher iq than you....you are really showing your ass here in this thread calling people in vegas stupid...when you finally get moved out of here i feel the intelligence level of vegas will go up...i will say that home owners here in vegas are fairly intelligent as they bought homes here and have profitted rather nicely....sometimes when i read your posts i am amazed at your negativity...do you ever see things in a positive way...cheer up man life is way too short to be as miserable as you are....jeffksu
Housing prices are a function of interest rates. Therefore, as interest rates continue rising, prices WILL FALL.
Record # of "homeowners" (eventhough many own nothing but the payment book) have borrowed using adjustable rate mortgages and other "creative" financing methods. A great number of them will be...may we be pleasant and say placed out of their homes as rates rise (which means their payment will rise).
We could have some way to go higher in certain markets, but for those that have been waiting to purchase, if you force yourselves to have a bit more patience you will be rewarded with lower prices...much lower in particular areas.
Many believe this is a bubble and I also agree. However, bubbles dont burst while the majority is waiting for the bubble to burst. Once it stops being called a bubble and instead a "permanent" boom in housing, get ready for spectacular real price adjustments to the DOWNSIDE.
Condo flipping in several markets and trailers selling for a million in California only begin to reveal the dislocations of capital in the housing sector.
The same jackasses that are saying the housing bubble will not burst are the same clowns that said the Nasdaq would never burst, oil would never stay above 30 (nearly 64 today), and tulip bulbs were worth several thousand a piece in 17 century Europe.
I understand and somewhat agree that housing has unique characteristics that help to maintain value. Such as people need somewhere to live and there is a finite supply. However, money is gained and lost at the margin and millions of Americans are financially overextended. Therefore, conditions are ripe for a massive bust once the adjustable rate mortgage borrowers cannot afford their increasing payments.
Once prices begin falling the problem feeds on itself for people begin to sit content with their cash and see how far prices may fall. Of course the Federal Reserve knows this and thus they are doing everything within their power to prevent real estate prices from falling. However, with a falling currency they were forced to begin "measured" rate increases.
Keep in mind that as above mentioned, housing prices are a function of interest rates. As rates rise, the payment for X price house rises. And since real wages (inflation adjusted) are not rising, in fact, I propose that nominal wages are not rising, therefore person X can no longer afford the same house as when interest rates were lower.
I look forward to the day when condo flippers and overextended borrowers get a good :hump: and suddenly find their $500,000 two-bedroom villa (which they have made $300,000k in payments and interest) is now worth $75,000.
We witnessed this in the late 1990's in the Nasdaq bubble and as we read this thread, we are witnessing the start of the housing bubble burst.
:smoker2:
Record # of "homeowners" (eventhough many own nothing but the payment book) have borrowed using adjustable rate mortgages and other "creative" financing methods. A great number of them will be...may we be pleasant and say placed out of their homes as rates rise (which means their payment will rise).
We could have some way to go higher in certain markets, but for those that have been waiting to purchase, if you force yourselves to have a bit more patience you will be rewarded with lower prices...much lower in particular areas.
Many believe this is a bubble and I also agree. However, bubbles dont burst while the majority is waiting for the bubble to burst. Once it stops being called a bubble and instead a "permanent" boom in housing, get ready for spectacular real price adjustments to the DOWNSIDE.
Condo flipping in several markets and trailers selling for a million in California only begin to reveal the dislocations of capital in the housing sector.
The same jackasses that are saying the housing bubble will not burst are the same clowns that said the Nasdaq would never burst, oil would never stay above 30 (nearly 64 today), and tulip bulbs were worth several thousand a piece in 17 century Europe.
I understand and somewhat agree that housing has unique characteristics that help to maintain value. Such as people need somewhere to live and there is a finite supply. However, money is gained and lost at the margin and millions of Americans are financially overextended. Therefore, conditions are ripe for a massive bust once the adjustable rate mortgage borrowers cannot afford their increasing payments.
Once prices begin falling the problem feeds on itself for people begin to sit content with their cash and see how far prices may fall. Of course the Federal Reserve knows this and thus they are doing everything within their power to prevent real estate prices from falling. However, with a falling currency they were forced to begin "measured" rate increases.
Keep in mind that as above mentioned, housing prices are a function of interest rates. As rates rise, the payment for X price house rises. And since real wages (inflation adjusted) are not rising, in fact, I propose that nominal wages are not rising, therefore person X can no longer afford the same house as when interest rates were lower.
I look forward to the day when condo flippers and overextended borrowers get a good :hump: and suddenly find their $500,000 two-bedroom villa (which they have made $300,000k in payments and interest) is now worth $75,000.
We witnessed this in the late 1990's in the Nasdaq bubble and as we read this thread, we are witnessing the start of the housing bubble burst.
:smoker2:
Interesting stuff Dawoof.
My own thinking is that prices simply cannot keep rising while people are not actually earning more, doesn't matter how many fancy ways there are to finance or refinance.
This is why I'm looking for figures from days gone by, when people, to my mind, paid far less as a proportion of income towards a mortgage than they do currently.
I'd still like to see some accurate figures though, just to see how much further overextended people are becoming these days.
My own thinking is that prices simply cannot keep rising while people are not actually earning more, doesn't matter how many fancy ways there are to finance or refinance.
This is why I'm looking for figures from days gone by, when people, to my mind, paid far less as a proportion of income towards a mortgage than they do currently.
I'd still like to see some accurate figures though, just to see how much further overextended people are becoming these days.
I have read that over 35% of mortgages are adjustable rate mortgages. This was done so they could afford "more" of a house. A fancy way to say they are overextended.
The whole idea of condo flipping is ridiculous although many have made small fortunes doing such. It the game of great fool and most currently coming into that game will lose even greater fortunes. I witnessed this same game during the Nasdaq bubble and anyone that reads history will see the past is filled with similar manias and bubbles.
I did not go into the slumping job situation in America. The economy has been growing some or at least treading water without a decent job market. The reason is that the government is printing money and running massive budget deficits, so this gives a short term appearance of economic growth.
Currently I own a home I purchased 10 years ago and it is 100% paid in full. It is nothing fancy and I must say often times the past few years many a fool has been made calling "tops" in US housing prices.
The top is the key as I mentioned in the earlier post and the FED also fully knows this! For, if/when prices begin to fall the bottom will soon fall from underneath current prices. People with million dollar trailers and "waiting to be flipped" condos will walk away once they realize their equity and mortgage are MUCH GREATER than the total property value. Banks and builders will be sitting with overvalued properties that people will not buy as prices continue decreasing, which only GREATENS the price decreases.
Therefore, they have telegraphed to the entire world that interest are going higher and that great dislocations and bubbles exist in housing. However, the condo flippers continue merrily along as they dont dream of an end.
Bankruptcy laws have been changed in America for to quote Alan Greenspan in a previous speech "America is soon to witness cascading bankruptcies". Many believe they will simply "walk away" from mortgages, but history also is filled with times when it was not that simple a process.
The fed has also embarked on wallpapering the world with dollar bills, and if that continues, only "real prices" will decrease. Also, a 6 pack of beer will soon cost 1,000 and so on.
I am not a realtor and cannot be in every city to witness the situation. Wildbill makes valid points about Las Vegas receiving thousands of new residents monthly and that has to be a natural boost to demand in that particular market. Other resort and waterfront markets have intrinsic values that currently many wealthy individuals are willing to pay any price to obtain.
Many that had their asses wiped clean in the Nasdaq bust put their remaining crumbs into real estate for investment.
You asked about % of household income/mortgage ratio. May I submit that 20-30 and greater years ago most homes had one wager earner. The fact that most households today MUST have at least two wage earners in order to maintain an expected standard of living is itself very inflationary. Therefore any ratio would not be accurate. I doubt Wall Street or most realtors care to discuss that reality.
The whole idea of condo flipping is ridiculous although many have made small fortunes doing such. It the game of great fool and most currently coming into that game will lose even greater fortunes. I witnessed this same game during the Nasdaq bubble and anyone that reads history will see the past is filled with similar manias and bubbles.
I did not go into the slumping job situation in America. The economy has been growing some or at least treading water without a decent job market. The reason is that the government is printing money and running massive budget deficits, so this gives a short term appearance of economic growth.
Currently I own a home I purchased 10 years ago and it is 100% paid in full. It is nothing fancy and I must say often times the past few years many a fool has been made calling "tops" in US housing prices.
The top is the key as I mentioned in the earlier post and the FED also fully knows this! For, if/when prices begin to fall the bottom will soon fall from underneath current prices. People with million dollar trailers and "waiting to be flipped" condos will walk away once they realize their equity and mortgage are MUCH GREATER than the total property value. Banks and builders will be sitting with overvalued properties that people will not buy as prices continue decreasing, which only GREATENS the price decreases.
Therefore, they have telegraphed to the entire world that interest are going higher and that great dislocations and bubbles exist in housing. However, the condo flippers continue merrily along as they dont dream of an end.
Bankruptcy laws have been changed in America for to quote Alan Greenspan in a previous speech "America is soon to witness cascading bankruptcies". Many believe they will simply "walk away" from mortgages, but history also is filled with times when it was not that simple a process.
The fed has also embarked on wallpapering the world with dollar bills, and if that continues, only "real prices" will decrease. Also, a 6 pack of beer will soon cost 1,000 and so on.
I am not a realtor and cannot be in every city to witness the situation. Wildbill makes valid points about Las Vegas receiving thousands of new residents monthly and that has to be a natural boost to demand in that particular market. Other resort and waterfront markets have intrinsic values that currently many wealthy individuals are willing to pay any price to obtain.
Many that had their asses wiped clean in the Nasdaq bust put their remaining crumbs into real estate for investment.
You asked about % of household income/mortgage ratio. May I submit that 20-30 and greater years ago most homes had one wager earner. The fact that most households today MUST have at least two wage earners in order to maintain an expected standard of living is itself very inflationary. Therefore any ratio would not be accurate. I doubt Wall Street or most realtors care to discuss that reality.
Thanks TT. Yes, it is so glaring to the few of us with our eyes open. It seems so obvious that whether or not it is a bubble should no longer be debatable. However, bubbles take a life of their own and calling tops is very difficult. Our great grandchildren will astonishingly read in history books about interest-only mortgages and the fools that thought the housing bubble would never end. Meanwhile, us bears only give the bulls a chuckle and we are dismissed as paranoid doomsayers.
However, Wall Street, The Federal Reserve, and mortgage lenders are willing to tell massive lies, print trillions of dollar bills and lend to anyone willing to flip a condo.
Watching this, I of course, wish to have been in the game and nothing says it will end tomorrow, so many will pile in until that happens. I do own a house, albeit nothing special and it has more than trebled in ten years. However, if I sold today, I would simply have to pay a higher price level for an upgraded home.
And actually, I will predict the initial rollover will bring many fence sitters that have watched their neighbors make millions selling real estate.
Very similar to those that purchased Nasdaq stocks after the market began falling in 2000. Many bought on margin (very similar to a mortgage since it is BORROWED funds) and were forced out at the bottom for their massive forced selling in fact helped to create and solidify the bottom.
I have a cousin that builds houses where I am visiting in south Georgia. Speaking with him today, he informed me that all the contractors are very busy so no immediate end coming here. Also, on St. Simons Island many homes that looked to be multi-million type are being built.
Currently, the bulls have been very correct and the bears have been made to be fools. However, this court remains in session.
However, Wall Street, The Federal Reserve, and mortgage lenders are willing to tell massive lies, print trillions of dollar bills and lend to anyone willing to flip a condo.
Watching this, I of course, wish to have been in the game and nothing says it will end tomorrow, so many will pile in until that happens. I do own a house, albeit nothing special and it has more than trebled in ten years. However, if I sold today, I would simply have to pay a higher price level for an upgraded home.
And actually, I will predict the initial rollover will bring many fence sitters that have watched their neighbors make millions selling real estate.
Very similar to those that purchased Nasdaq stocks after the market began falling in 2000. Many bought on margin (very similar to a mortgage since it is BORROWED funds) and were forced out at the bottom for their massive forced selling in fact helped to create and solidify the bottom.
I have a cousin that builds houses where I am visiting in south Georgia. Speaking with him today, he informed me that all the contractors are very busy so no immediate end coming here. Also, on St. Simons Island many homes that looked to be multi-million type are being built.
Currently, the bulls have been very correct and the bears have been made to be fools. However, this court remains in session.
Excellent stuff again Dawoof.
If not already mentioned, I recall reading somewhere that a general rule of thumb years ago was that an average house approximated to roughly 3 times annual income.
In those days of course, the income was based on one income.
Contrast that to today's situation..scary.
I may be seeing things in an overly negative light but really, it does seem that a lot of the gains made by people over the years in real estate have come about almost as a by product of virtual entrapment of younger people having to pay more and more for what is, pretty much the same thing ie a house.
Funny how so many people these days love to talk about how much they've made on their properties without seeming to pay much attention to where those gains have actually come from.
If not already mentioned, I recall reading somewhere that a general rule of thumb years ago was that an average house approximated to roughly 3 times annual income.
In those days of course, the income was based on one income.
Contrast that to today's situation..scary.
I may be seeing things in an overly negative light but really, it does seem that a lot of the gains made by people over the years in real estate have come about almost as a by product of virtual entrapment of younger people having to pay more and more for what is, pretty much the same thing ie a house.
Funny how so many people these days love to talk about how much they've made on their properties without seeming to pay much attention to where those gains have actually come from.
This is a great read although it is somewhat concerning. My wife and are are closing on our first house in mid September. We have wasted a lot of time renting a small house in an area we truly love. We had made several offers on houses in the area but everything was out bid. The prices have gone through the roof in this area and everything continues to be sold within a few days. We decided to expand our search and have puchased a house in a decent area on the other side of Portland. We are both counselors for troubled youth and don't necessarily rake it in. The Mortgage is affordable and is 80-20 100 percent fixed financing. Seems like there is a lot of posters who have considerable knowledge in this area. I have researched things but don't really feel much confidence at all in this area. I have heard so many different things. Would anybody be willing to predict the portland market? Any other suggestions would be welcome. Not trying to sound like a wuss. We are excited but also concerned about our timing.
Thanks
Thanks
I just finished reading this entire thread and I will say it is among the best I have read.
To the poster from Portland:
Try to not overly concern yourself with buying now since you have a fixed rate mortgage and the payment is within reasonable affordability. The fact that so many people are worrying themselves sick about falling prices tells us the rise is probably not finished. Similarly, if most are buying now because of fear of continuing rising prices, the fall is very near.
The Left Coast has growing population and rather than sitting around waiting for the sky to fall like some of us (myself often a bit more bearish than I would prefer), enjoy your new home.
However, many condo flippers and folks with adj rate mortgages are going to get their heads and wallets cracked wide open.
:lolBIG:
To the poster from Portland:
Try to not overly concern yourself with buying now since you have a fixed rate mortgage and the payment is within reasonable affordability. The fact that so many people are worrying themselves sick about falling prices tells us the rise is probably not finished. Similarly, if most are buying now because of fear of continuing rising prices, the fall is very near.
The Left Coast has growing population and rather than sitting around waiting for the sky to fall like some of us (myself often a bit more bearish than I would prefer), enjoy your new home.
However, many condo flippers and folks with adj rate mortgages are going to get their heads and wallets cracked wide open.
:lolBIG:
If/When you are "100% certain" the price of your home will greatly increase to the moon, put a 4 sale in the yard for 20% less than "appraised value".
If/When you are "100% certain" the price of your home will greatly decrease, buy an upgraded home and/or as much investment property as banks will extend credit.
Many other posters seem to know this sector than myself, but also many are speaking from what they "want" or "would like" to see happen, rather than what is actually happening or will/could happen.
:toast:
If/When you are "100% certain" the price of your home will greatly decrease, buy an upgraded home and/or as much investment property as banks will extend credit.
Many other posters seem to know this sector than myself, but also many are speaking from what they "want" or "would like" to see happen, rather than what is actually happening or will/could happen.
:toast:
Kiss1 said:
Kiss1, everything ok with you dude? some of your recent posts have taken a drastic turn for the worst. vegas getting to you? you seem to hate the world these days. i know the feeling. vegas can change people. get away from the city if you can for awhile. being in a casino all the time can really get to you.
