Ensign,
A couple times during the course of the season, Don Best will post an opening line on Sunday night and then change the opening line during the week. The original opening line was 6.5 and moved on Monday afternoon to 4.5. I don't know why they do that but like 10-12 times during the cfb and nfl season it happens. We should probably count it in both categories for the sake of accuracy. What does everyone think?
A couple times during the course of the season, Don Best will post an opening line on Sunday night and then change the opening line during the week. The original opening line was 6.5 and moved on Monday afternoon to 4.5. I don't know why they do that but like 10-12 times during the cfb and nfl season it happens. We should probably count it in both categories for the sake of accuracy. What does everyone think?
Kojak said:
Unless I'm reading this wrong, according to DonBest's archive, 37.5 was the opening number in two games week 1 of the season and one went over, one under.
http://www.donbest.com/website/html/freeodds/archives/nfl.shtml?20060910
I also don't see where you played either one.
http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=402819
If they really do hit above 70%, wouldn't you be foolish to bet anything else but these plays? I'd go back to your 50* plays if you've got a system that hits in the 80% range.
Good luck.
- DD
Dribble,
The reason my week 1 numbers may not be complete is that after stop posting in March and basely got completely away even from betting. I did not know if I was going to post and as a result, did not do my due diligence like I had in the past. I am now starting to get back into full swing. I am not doing anymore 50* plays but if you are able to read between the lines, you can probably figure it out most of the time. If you also look above, I have gone against the trends several times this season and I believe that is why my numbers may have suffered. I did not play those two games because I did not pay attention close enough in Wk 1 otherwise I would have. I did not decide to even wager or play until midweek of Wk 1 so I was behind the 8 ball. There are some games that are probably missing from above and if someone knows them, lets add them. I am not trying to hide any games here, I simply may not have paid close enough attention early on.
The reason my week 1 numbers may not be complete is that after stop posting in March and basely got completely away even from betting. I did not know if I was going to post and as a result, did not do my due diligence like I had in the past. I am now starting to get back into full swing. I am not doing anymore 50* plays but if you are able to read between the lines, you can probably figure it out most of the time. If you also look above, I have gone against the trends several times this season and I believe that is why my numbers may have suffered. I did not play those two games because I did not pay attention close enough in Wk 1 otherwise I would have. I did not decide to even wager or play until midweek of Wk 1 so I was behind the 8 ball. There are some games that are probably missing from above and if someone knows them, lets add them. I am not trying to hide any games here, I simply may not have paid close enough attention early on.
There was also a 40.5 line in week 1, which ended up going under. So that means there were two plays at 37.5 and one at 40.5. Two of the three plays lost, so I guess you should be glad you were ignoring the system then.
I truly hope you are on to something, but am skeptical. I will continue to follow and hope you hit big.
-DD
I truly hope you are on to something, but am skeptical. I will continue to follow and hope you hit big.
-DD
Just to throw a few numbers out there for cfb to show some of the same trends for this year here are a few numbers.
17 point favorite (dog covers)
Ole Miss/Alabama
Ball St./Purdue
Hawaii/Alabama
Syracuse/Iowa
Nebraska/USC (Loser due to line movement by 1 pt)
Washington/Oklahoma
Akron/Penn St. (unsure but believe it was)
New Mexico/UTEP
I doubt I have them all but from ones I have 7-1.
3.5 fav ( dog covers)
ND/Michigan St
Florida St./Miami,FL
Louisville/Miami FL
Michigan St./Pitt
Ole Miss/Wake Forest
Oregon/Ou (not 100% sure)
Oregon/Fresno St.
Utah/Boise St.
Washington/Fresno St.
Just some examples how it is also working in cfb.
17 point favorite (dog covers)
Ole Miss/Alabama
Ball St./Purdue
Hawaii/Alabama
Syracuse/Iowa
Nebraska/USC (Loser due to line movement by 1 pt)
Washington/Oklahoma
Akron/Penn St. (unsure but believe it was)
New Mexico/UTEP
I doubt I have them all but from ones I have 7-1.
3.5 fav ( dog covers)
ND/Michigan St
Florida St./Miami,FL
Louisville/Miami FL
Michigan St./Pitt
Ole Miss/Wake Forest
Oregon/Ou (not 100% sure)
Oregon/Fresno St.
Utah/Boise St.
Washington/Fresno St.
Just some examples how it is also working in cfb.
Dribble,
It is very possible that those numbers go the other way for this year. I have seen it happen and that is why I track year to year. For example, 6.5 this year as been a huge favorite number this year but in past years, dog has hit at over 75% on that opening line number. That is why I think it is important to track year to year and after getting a few games with those totals for current year in that particular sport to compare. A couple of years ago I saw a number change for current year and went with it after it went 6 straight times the other way. If you know how many games at 37.5 and 40.5 that went off this year, please post them so that I can track for the season. It seems that they all went off early before I got back into the swing of things. A good example of a change for this year is 37 total has been a very high percentage under number this year. From what I have tracked not including what I am missing, it looks to have switched to an over number. Maybe this year it has flipped with 37.5 becoming under number.
It is very possible that those numbers go the other way for this year. I have seen it happen and that is why I track year to year. For example, 6.5 this year as been a huge favorite number this year but in past years, dog has hit at over 75% on that opening line number. That is why I think it is important to track year to year and after getting a few games with those totals for current year in that particular sport to compare. A couple of years ago I saw a number change for current year and went with it after it went 6 straight times the other way. If you know how many games at 37.5 and 40.5 that went off this year, please post them so that I can track for the season. It seems that they all went off early before I got back into the swing of things. A good example of a change for this year is 37 total has been a very high percentage under number this year. From what I have tracked not including what I am missing, it looks to have switched to an over number. Maybe this year it has flipped with 37.5 becoming under number.
I will do 40.5.
05 Arizona/Detroit 50 pts
04 Arizona/Seattle 42 pts
04 Arizona/NO 44 pts
05 NE/Atlanta 59 pts
04 Baltimore/KC 51 pts
05 Buffalo/Oakland 55 pts
04 Buffalo/Cincinnati 50 pts
05 Carolina/New Orleans 37 pts (Loser)
04 Carolina/Oakland 51 pts
04 Chicago/Minnesota 38 pts (Loser)
04 Cinci/Cleveland 51 pts
05 Cleveland/Green Bay 50 pts
04 Cleveland/Philly 65 pts
05 Dallas/SD 52 pts
05 Dallas/SF 65 pts
05 Dallas/Philly 41 pts (number moved to 41 before betting so this is one I considered the tie)
04 Detroit/Dallas 52 pts
05 Denver/Pittsburgh (AFC Champ) 51 pts
04 Denver/Oakland 49 pts
04 Green Bay/Washington 42 pts
05 Houston/Tennessee 54 pts
05 Jacksonville/St. Louis 45 pts
05 Miami/Oakland 54 pts
04 Minnesota/Chicago 38 pts (Loser)
04 New England/Cleveland 57 pts
05 NYG/Philly 44 pts
05 NYG/Oakland 51 pts
04 NY Jets/Seattle 51 pts
05 Philly/SF 45 pts
05 NE/Pitt 43 pts
04 NE/Pitt 54 pts
05 SD/NY Jets 57 pts
04 SD/Tampa Bay 55 pts
05 SF/Seattle 52 pts
04 SF/Seattle 69 pts
04 SF/Atlanta 40 pts (loser by .5 pt and line moved to 43)
04 Buffalo/SF 48 pts
05 Seattle/Houston 52 pts
05 Seattle/GB 40 pts (loser by .5 pt)
04 Atlanta/SEattle 54 pts
04 Buffalo/St. Louis 54 pts
05 SF/Tennessee 55 pts
04 Cincinnati/Tennessee 47 pts
05 Kansas City/Washington 49 pts
04 Minnesota/Washington 39 pts (Loser)
I actually found another sheet with a few more on it so final figures are 45 games last 2 years with 40.5 opening total number. 38 overs 6 unders 1 tie. Hope this helps
05 Arizona/Detroit 50 pts
04 Arizona/Seattle 42 pts
04 Arizona/NO 44 pts
05 NE/Atlanta 59 pts
04 Baltimore/KC 51 pts
05 Buffalo/Oakland 55 pts
04 Buffalo/Cincinnati 50 pts
05 Carolina/New Orleans 37 pts (Loser)
04 Carolina/Oakland 51 pts
04 Chicago/Minnesota 38 pts (Loser)
04 Cinci/Cleveland 51 pts
05 Cleveland/Green Bay 50 pts
04 Cleveland/Philly 65 pts
05 Dallas/SD 52 pts
05 Dallas/SF 65 pts
05 Dallas/Philly 41 pts (number moved to 41 before betting so this is one I considered the tie)
04 Detroit/Dallas 52 pts
05 Denver/Pittsburgh (AFC Champ) 51 pts
04 Denver/Oakland 49 pts
04 Green Bay/Washington 42 pts
05 Houston/Tennessee 54 pts
05 Jacksonville/St. Louis 45 pts
05 Miami/Oakland 54 pts
04 Minnesota/Chicago 38 pts (Loser)
04 New England/Cleveland 57 pts
05 NYG/Philly 44 pts
05 NYG/Oakland 51 pts
04 NY Jets/Seattle 51 pts
05 Philly/SF 45 pts
05 NE/Pitt 43 pts
04 NE/Pitt 54 pts
05 SD/NY Jets 57 pts
04 SD/Tampa Bay 55 pts
05 SF/Seattle 52 pts
04 SF/Seattle 69 pts
04 SF/Atlanta 40 pts (loser by .5 pt and line moved to 43)
04 Buffalo/SF 48 pts
05 Seattle/Houston 52 pts
05 Seattle/GB 40 pts (loser by .5 pt)
04 Atlanta/SEattle 54 pts
04 Buffalo/St. Louis 54 pts
05 SF/Tennessee 55 pts
04 Cincinnati/Tennessee 47 pts
05 Kansas City/Washington 49 pts
04 Minnesota/Washington 39 pts (Loser)
I actually found another sheet with a few more on it so final figures are 45 games last 2 years with 40.5 opening total number. 38 overs 6 unders 1 tie. Hope this helps
kojak
i have started tracking this year the statfox simulator for nfl sides. have not but will be going to last year and beyond to track also.
They run two simulators. simulator two when is gives road dog edge it is 0-4.
a fade situation. week 2 had four fade situations :
oakland to cover baltimore (l0st)
cleavland to cover cincinnatti (lost)
detroit to cover chicago (lost)
washington to cover dallas (lost)
this week there are four more potential fade situations
tennessee to cover indy (+18 1/2)
miami to cover new england (+9 1/2)
jets to cover jacksonville (+7)
buffalo to cover chicago (+11)
the reason i bring it up is two one here that intersect with your system Jacksonville and chicago.
once i get last year complete can update with some confidence.
burytheb
i have started tracking this year the statfox simulator for nfl sides. have not but will be going to last year and beyond to track also.
They run two simulators. simulator two when is gives road dog edge it is 0-4.
a fade situation. week 2 had four fade situations :
oakland to cover baltimore (l0st)
cleavland to cover cincinnatti (lost)
detroit to cover chicago (lost)
washington to cover dallas (lost)
this week there are four more potential fade situations
tennessee to cover indy (+18 1/2)
miami to cover new england (+9 1/2)
jets to cover jacksonville (+7)
buffalo to cover chicago (+11)
the reason i bring it up is two one here that intersect with your system Jacksonville and chicago.
once i get last year complete can update with some confidence.
burytheb
gyne...Glad I could help. I am hoping now that I have shared, maybe I can get someone who has more time than me to keep it in a spreadsheet and be 100% accurate. BOL
burytheb...I noticed with your system, that 2 plays Dallas and Baltimore in upper grouping would have been the plays fading the statfox and both would have been plays in my system. Interested to see what you find out.
burytheb...I noticed with your system, that 2 plays Dallas and Baltimore in upper grouping would have been the plays fading the statfox and both would have been plays in my system. Interested to see what you find out.
..very super post; kojak; and discussion; i am a huge believer in certain numbers; and i feel it is significant that the experts(who make the opening line) have a certain number at the opening of public betting.
why:..?? i feel that certain numbersdo denote a feeling of strength or weakness of the teams analyzex; and that an expert consensus starting(opening) line of -13.5 is different than -14; and would approach betting that game differently..
The problem is that with the interrnet; and online betting; some of the distinction between expert and public and sharp betting has been blurred...>>
jmho
gl
gr post(s)
gl
:howdy:
why:..?? i feel that certain numbersdo denote a feeling of strength or weakness of the teams analyzex; and that an expert consensus starting(opening) line of -13.5 is different than -14; and would approach betting that game differently..
The problem is that with the interrnet; and online betting; some of the distinction between expert and public and sharp betting has been blurred...>>
jmho
gl
gr post(s)
gl
:howdy:
