I Have Decided to Share An Opening Line Numbers Trend System

[trentmoney]

just a comment on some of these trends...

i always love taking dogs @ 4.5

with home team getting 3 pts a road dog of +4.5 is probably very close in talent and on the same level as the favorite...

with 3's and 7's such common scores in football many times the way the game is played out getting +4.5 only loses by a td...almost like getting +6.5 for a team of almost equal power level...also, if the teams are almost of equal power, sometimes the home field doesn't even matter!

as for favorites -6.5...

usually the team is decidely better than their opponent but, with the way games play out, if the better team wins by just one score (TD), you've covered... for a decidedly better team, that's not too difficult

for a road favorite, to be -6.5 they are a lot better than the home team, but books don't want to make a home dog getting a full TD since betters like to take home dogs so they open at less than a td but that might necessarily be an accurate gauge of the diffence between the two teams...again, winning by just one score can be easily reached

jmo

good luck

btw-
i just took pitts -6.5 over KC after looking at this system so we'll see how this continues...as for the capping, i can't see damon huard being too successful on the road against a pitts d that needs a win and if pitts gets up and kc takes LJ out of the game plan huard should have troubles

 

[rowdy]

It seems to me that when the weather is bad it doesn't really affect the game going O/U and seems to send it over in the muck more times than not. The announcers are always talking about how in bad weather, the receivers have the advantage becuase they know where they are going and can make their planned cuts easier than the DB. No idea if this is true but sure makes me feel better aboout my overs bet tonight.

 

[nut]

works for me

won 4 out of 5 using your system combined with mine. only loser was the pitt/sd game by one lousy point.thank you for another tool to use. now win tonight i'm doing the same thing.

 

[DribbleDrive]

Kojak -

I'm still confused by this system. You didn't reply to my last post so I will ask again. Why will you will make UNDER 47.5 a large play next time you see that total based on a single game from this week? 47.5 has only come up once this season, and twice all of last year.

Also, any thoughts on my post #94? Seems like this would be so easy to test for all numbers.

I'm not bashing, and I know I don't have to play these if I don't want to, just trying to understand why you or anyone would play it as if it is a real trend when the sample size is so tiny, or doesn't support the trend in the first place as evidenced by the 2005 totals I posted.

- DD

 

[CrystalBall+]

Weather in Denver is a little slushy. Temperature not too cold as I was in my shorts today, but I have been living in Denver for almost ten years.

Good to see you Jeff, although I am off sports gambling.

Good luck on your wager, but I will be routing for Denver to win, hopefully just by 3.

Good luck.

 

[Kojak]

Dribble,
If you notice in my Wk 6 post on trend, I am going to start posting all opening lines that I am using to take all the confusion out of it. I don't understand why numbers you have are different than ones I write down so figured easiest thing to do is to simply list what I am using. In regards to post 94, I don't know computer bob. I know that you are not bashing but trying to help in shooting down system. I am glad you are as it will rather prove wrong or validate. Keep posting anything you find as it is appreciated. In regards to why numbers are different, I can tell you that last night, Pitt/KC opened with total of 37.5 but when I reviewed again had been changed to 37. Which number do you use? For my purposes, I use the last one that it is changed to. Maybe this happens more than we realize. Anyway, thanks for all your help and please continue. BOL

crystalball,
Good to hear from you. Hope your trip overseas went well. Do you still have same phone number as I have you programmed in phone? I know that you and I discussed this topic ly. You saw what I was doing and how it was successful. Why don't you chime in if you remember? Hope to talk to you soon.

nut, Glad I could help. We will see if it continues. BOL

Rowdy....I think bad weather affect cfb more than nfl. I agree that everytime in nfl I go with bad weather I get burned and opposite in cfb and I get burned. Simply going to trust instinct from now on and that is why I have stayed the course tonight. BoL

 

[DonMelchor]

THIS IS ONE OF THE MAIN REASONS WHY THIS FORUM IS GREAT, THANKS K GREAT JOB!!

:toast: WILL TAKE BALTIMORE AS WELL

 

[cubsfn4ever]

Cubsfan4ever,
I am only going to say this once and once only to you. If you don't like what I am doing, simply stay out of my threads. I have kept accurate records every week since I started posting again. What do you do for this forum? I am still trying to figure it out. In regards to this thread, I posted that this is something I have been doing for awhile. I didn't have to share it but I did as I thought I would try to validate system or blow up system. These are not my official plays as I have even played against it as you can tell if you read my thread. I knew I would be criticized or even ridiculed for putting some thread up like this from people like you but I don't care. There are a ton of great people here at the RX that I feel I help in playing or fading me. Several people I consider friends. How about you? I am not going to back down from people like yourself. Why not post some of your own selections or things to add to the forum? Are you afraid to? I would be curious to see how you do and if anyone criticizes you. In regards to my number of posts, I have been on this site for several years posting. That is why the posts are so high. Obviously you have a lot of time on your hands to be coming into my threads and writing out a 2 paragraph negative response for no reason out of the clear blue.

My contribution to this forum is to keep people advised about systems such as this that make no sense. I'm sure I could go back over results this year and find a stong trend for something like teams with animals for mascots at home and the over. Even if it had hit 70% this year, it has no predictive value for the future and neither does this trend system. Just trying to educate people a little.

 

[PatPatriot]

Kojak keep em comin,nice work regardless.

I'm wondering if those numbers that you have posted only relates to sunday games.I'm not being wise but I think monday nite games might be factored differentley...just a guess.

I'm thinking of doing what you've done with baseball I see patterns with opening line with bases too.

 

[wilheim]

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