I noticed your posts on Monday, so I jumped in this week.
8-22 overall for the week which is 26.6%!!!
5* plays are 1-10 for the week on top of that.
Needless to say I am down a ton of money.
I appreciated you sharing this and your honesty with it all.
Bad timing on my part, but things dont seem to be working out after a hot start.
8-22 overall for the week which is 26.6%!!!
5* plays are 1-10 for the week on top of that.
Needless to say I am down a ton of money.
I appreciated you sharing this and your honesty with it all.
Bad timing on my part, but things dont seem to be working out after a hot start.
There is one other thing I forgot to mention is that lines are fluid. One of the difficult parts of entering data in and grading the program is what line to use. I think lines move the most when first posted and then closer to game time. I try to get a line midday that is not changing much. That is the line I enter and grade all my systems with. Unfortunately I have a life and I am not always available midday. Happened last Saturday and I lost a game and most people played and won the game because of the favorable line movement.
My program might generate a total of say 195. The line is 200.5. My indicator might be looking for a difference of more than 5. In this case it is a play. Now if the line drops to 200....it is no longer a play. Other indicators may continue to have it a play but this one would not. But the combination of plays and that dynamics changes because the one play dropped out.
In the program if I play a game the line I played it at is used to grade the play because I feel I made a decision based on the information that I had at the time. Yesterday Indiana Over is a case in point. I played it and it is graded in the program as a lose. Later in the day....the normal time i try to get lines....the line had moved to make it not a play. Also on the Chicago game the line had moved and it became a play in that exact same category. So next time that category comes up it will be 9-5 on the year.
More a factor of my personal life yesterday than the program.
Based on the morning line I have right now and it could change because of line movement
Denver Under
Category 1 This Year 8-8
2014 24-15
2013 19-22
2012 19-20
Total 70-65
Category 2 this year 6-5
2014 22-11
2013 21-20
2012 20-17
Total 69-53
Category 3 this year 7-6
2014 15-10
2013 23-23
2012 16-13
Total 61-52
All 3 have the under
This year 1-3
2014 6-3
2013 6-3
2012 5-2
Total 18-11 62%
Home team and under 12 of 29 41%
First Half Under
This Year 3-1
2014 6-3
2013 7-2
2012 3-4
Total 20-9 68%
My program might generate a total of say 195. The line is 200.5. My indicator might be looking for a difference of more than 5. In this case it is a play. Now if the line drops to 200....it is no longer a play. Other indicators may continue to have it a play but this one would not. But the combination of plays and that dynamics changes because the one play dropped out.
In the program if I play a game the line I played it at is used to grade the play because I feel I made a decision based on the information that I had at the time. Yesterday Indiana Over is a case in point. I played it and it is graded in the program as a lose. Later in the day....the normal time i try to get lines....the line had moved to make it not a play. Also on the Chicago game the line had moved and it became a play in that exact same category. So next time that category comes up it will be 9-5 on the year.
More a factor of my personal life yesterday than the program.
Based on the morning line I have right now and it could change because of line movement
Denver Under
Category 1 This Year 8-8
2014 24-15
2013 19-22
2012 19-20
Total 70-65
Category 2 this year 6-5
2014 22-11
2013 21-20
2012 20-17
Total 69-53
Category 3 this year 7-6
2014 15-10
2013 23-23
2012 16-13
Total 61-52
All 3 have the under
This year 1-3
2014 6-3
2013 6-3
2012 5-2
Total 18-11 62%
Home team and under 12 of 29 41%
First Half Under
This Year 3-1
2014 6-3
2013 7-2
2012 3-4
Total 20-9 68%
Denver game moved down 4 points and was not a play. A few big moves today mostly on the overs and my program was pointing over on almost all games but one.
With current lines the best games are
Houston Over in category that shows up alot and is 9-5 on the year and 60% last 3 years, similar numbers first half and both point toward Char covering with the over. (New York was in this until the line moved up 2 points)
San antonio over 1-1 on the year 61% last 3 (first half is opposite 60% under....weird...must mean high scoring second half).
Clippers Under falls into the category Denver did before the line movement yesterday. So first half under looks good.
As Always Good Luck
Northern Star
With current lines the best games are
Houston Over in category that shows up alot and is 9-5 on the year and 60% last 3 years, similar numbers first half and both point toward Char covering with the over. (New York was in this until the line moved up 2 points)
San antonio over 1-1 on the year 61% last 3 (first half is opposite 60% under....weird...must mean high scoring second half).
Clippers Under falls into the category Denver did before the line movement yesterday. So first half under looks good.
As Always Good Luck
Northern Star
My apologies, I shouldve changed the wording. I didnt necessarily mean fade, but what I told you about earlier in terms of meeting the mean. You never said not to try it, so I was trying it out. I don't want others to follow if they didnt know that. Like I said before, I'm sure you are a great capper, and judging by some peoples response with your title, has got them irritated. With that said, I simply told you about what I wanted to try, and you didnt seem to disagree.. If you dont want me to try it, I will stop. It wasnt in any way to bash your work, honestly. If there is a flaw, it should be mentioned.
Some of you really have no clue.
Wouldn't it be wonderful if every day went 3-2 or 5-1 or anything above 50%?? There is absolutely nothing wrong with what NS does, nor is there anything wrong with the results. Percentages are based on long term results. There is no "flaw". There is no "regression to the mean"
I've had a decent NBA season so far. On Dec 3 I was up 26+ Units. Since then I've lost 18 units. Currently I'm up 8.65 units. I will have ups and downs, good streaks and bad. The only results that matter are the ones at the end of the season. I don't get caught up in short term results.
Last week I had a horrific stretch where I lost 11+ Units in 4 days. Next 5 days pretty much broke even, today I picked up 2 units. I never panicked even though my results were shit. I have enough trust and faith in what I do, trust the research that I've done, to believe and more importantly know that the numbers will improve. I'm still up almost 9 units. 4.5 units a month makes for a 27 unit season. I'll take that every year.
NS and I do similar work, we find profitable situations and bet them. Most of my plays hit at 60% over several years, NS plays do the same thing. They will hit hot and cold streaks, but overall the expectation is to hit at a winning percentage.
Its completely out of line to come into another person's thread and talk about fading them, or any other comments that aren't positive. This man has put in a lot of time and effort, and is kind enough to share his work. Where were all of the negative comments when he started off giving out winners left and right??
Fade or follow, but keep the negative comments out of here.
Wouldn't it be wonderful if every day went 3-2 or 5-1 or anything above 50%?? There is absolutely nothing wrong with what NS does, nor is there anything wrong with the results. Percentages are based on long term results. There is no "flaw". There is no "regression to the mean"
I've had a decent NBA season so far. On Dec 3 I was up 26+ Units. Since then I've lost 18 units. Currently I'm up 8.65 units. I will have ups and downs, good streaks and bad. The only results that matter are the ones at the end of the season. I don't get caught up in short term results.
Last week I had a horrific stretch where I lost 11+ Units in 4 days. Next 5 days pretty much broke even, today I picked up 2 units. I never panicked even though my results were shit. I have enough trust and faith in what I do, trust the research that I've done, to believe and more importantly know that the numbers will improve. I'm still up almost 9 units. 4.5 units a month makes for a 27 unit season. I'll take that every year.
NS and I do similar work, we find profitable situations and bet them. Most of my plays hit at 60% over several years, NS plays do the same thing. They will hit hot and cold streaks, but overall the expectation is to hit at a winning percentage.
Its completely out of line to come into another person's thread and talk about fading them, or any other comments that aren't positive. This man has put in a lot of time and effort, and is kind enough to share his work. Where were all of the negative comments when he started off giving out winners left and right??
Fade or follow, but keep the negative comments out of here.
I agree post whatever you are doing with ns plays in your own thread. Its in poor taste to post what you did in someone's thread.
Have seen ns post for years and he's been solid.
Noticed this thread and missed his 1st week , jumped on 2nd week and we all know what happened. Played very small with this new system got crushed around 50 units.
I know ns and it will come back and I'll probably jump back on it but this far it seems very volatile so going to watch a little bit.
NS keep up the good work. It's appreciate d. Always solid! My best.
Have seen ns post for years and he's been solid.
Noticed this thread and missed his 1st week , jumped on 2nd week and we all know what happened. Played very small with this new system got crushed around 50 units.
I know ns and it will come back and I'll probably jump back on it but this far it seems very volatile so going to watch a little bit.
NS keep up the good work. It's appreciate d. Always solid! My best.
I have said before the computer program does not know emotion. Tonight is the last night before the Christmas so players and teams may no follow normal patterns. The plays come up decent though so here they are.
Orlando Under First half 4-1 this year, 21-9 last 3 years.
Orlando Under game is 3-2 this year and 19-11 last 3 years. This is the same category as Clippers two nights ago. Both won and it also points to home dog with 11 of the 30 games being dog and under.
Charlotte Over is the work horse category discussed before hits 60% gives alot of plays is 9-6 on the year and the dog hits a high %. First half slightly worse and 8-7 on the year.
Atlanta Under no plays this year 7-1 over three years. Home team and under is 6-2 so if it goes under the home team is the winner. First half is 4-2-1. Before the line moved and one of the categories went from a play to no play the first half was in a 20-9 selection so i think the first half is still good just for completeness the game was 19-10 so it had more plays and was still a solid selection.
Lakers Under first half no plays this year 14-6 three years. Game slightly worse at 13-6...8 of those 13 the favorite covered.
As Always Good Luck
Northern Star
Orlando Under First half 4-1 this year, 21-9 last 3 years.
Orlando Under game is 3-2 this year and 19-11 last 3 years. This is the same category as Clippers two nights ago. Both won and it also points to home dog with 11 of the 30 games being dog and under.
Charlotte Over is the work horse category discussed before hits 60% gives alot of plays is 9-6 on the year and the dog hits a high %. First half slightly worse and 8-7 on the year.
Atlanta Under no plays this year 7-1 over three years. Home team and under is 6-2 so if it goes under the home team is the winner. First half is 4-2-1. Before the line moved and one of the categories went from a play to no play the first half was in a 20-9 selection so i think the first half is still good just for completeness the game was 19-10 so it had more plays and was still a solid selection.
Lakers Under first half no plays this year 14-6 three years. Game slightly worse at 13-6...8 of those 13 the favorite covered.
As Always Good Luck
Northern Star
