funny you guys talk about karma when earlier in the thread northstar talks about karma and donating. funny how a bad night or two and people start losing their mind. if there's too many plays - don't play them. simple as that.
i say thanks to you north star for sharing your plays. NOW GET BACK TO WINNING... ha. GL all.
i say thanks to you north star for sharing your plays. NOW GET BACK TO WINNING... ha. GL all.
Look at post #147
In that post use the example. There were 112 games. The program predicted over. 65 went over.
Of those 65 games that went over the visitor covered 41 times. (I dont know who covered or care who covered in the 47 games that went under). In this case the combination of Visitor and Over would have hit
41/ 112 or 36.6% significantly higher than the mathematical odds of 25%.
If the number of covers by the visitor was say 33 out of 65 I would not post anything. I only post it when one side has a more significant bias.
Mathematically if you bet parlays and hit one out of three that is fantastic. So in the game tonight the combination of Laker plus the points and over has hit 43% which is great but it is also helped by the fact that the game itself has hit 69%. The example post shows a scenario where there is a very big bias to the vistor. Last night Boston missed the cover by 1/2 and game went over and New Orleans won easy but didnt go over by a bucket....they were not far from being 2-0 on the parlay combination versus the 0-2.
Northern Star
NS intrigued by your system and plays. unfortunately this week has been a train wreck. Lots of volatility.
have done some following and tonight first half and game are done already it seems at the half. Way too many points to be made up at the half for a game over.
Will be keeping an eye on things moving forward but have lost too much. Hope system turns back to winning soon for you
thanks for the hard work and posting...
have done some following and tonight first half and game are done already it seems at the half. Way too many points to be made up at the half for a game over.
Will be keeping an eye on things moving forward but have lost too much. Hope system turns back to winning soon for you
thanks for the hard work and posting...
Big NBA card today but the program shows almost no plays. It is designed to make a significant number of plays.
Today
5* Golden State Under 209.5 (71%) same as earlier this week. 1-1 on the year now 29-12 last 3 years
5* Chicago Under First Half 100 (71%) 2-0 this year 20-8 last 3 years
4* Chicago Under Game 196.5 (67%) 1-1 this year 19-9 last 3
4* Golden State Under First half 107.5 (63%) 2-0 on the year 26-15 last 3 years
Detroit and under 42%
As Always Good Luck
Northern Star
Today
5* Golden State Under 209.5 (71%) same as earlier this week. 1-1 on the year now 29-12 last 3 years
5* Chicago Under First Half 100 (71%) 2-0 this year 20-8 last 3 years
4* Chicago Under Game 196.5 (67%) 1-1 this year 19-9 last 3
4* Golden State Under First half 107.5 (63%) 2-0 on the year 26-15 last 3 years
Detroit and under 42%
As Always Good Luck
Northern Star
Well Chicago Under just missed covering last night.....by the slimest of margins......100 points.
Today two plays come up. A little more info and do as you please with the information. The lines are moving worse so the early post.
Oklahoma City Under 209
There are four ways I calculate numbers on each game. 2 have selections on this game under.
Method 1 record
This year 5-5
2014 33-21
2013 31-11
2012 33-19
record 102 -56 very good on its own most are not this good
Method 2
This year 6-7
2014 27-18
2013 32-24
2012 35-17
Record 100-66 once again good on its own.
When just these two call for an under
This year 0-1
2014 8-2
2013 3-1
2012 3-2
Record 14-6
Dog and Under Cover 8 of 20
First half is 13-8 0-1 this year.
The other game is a scenario that produces quite a few plays and I out lined it in a previous post.
Memphis Over 201.5 69-45 is 3 year record.
it is 8-4 this year and dog and over hits 36% of the time.
First 3 year record 67-46 and also 8-4 this year.
One other game is the first half under in Washington.
Has not much of a track record.....just 7 plays in 3 years and none this year. Has won 6 times and 5 out of the seven the home team covers.
As Always Good Luck
Northern Star
Today two plays come up. A little more info and do as you please with the information. The lines are moving worse so the early post.
Oklahoma City Under 209
There are four ways I calculate numbers on each game. 2 have selections on this game under.
Method 1 record
This year 5-5
2014 33-21
2013 31-11
2012 33-19
record 102 -56 very good on its own most are not this good
Method 2
This year 6-7
2014 27-18
2013 32-24
2012 35-17
Record 100-66 once again good on its own.
When just these two call for an under
This year 0-1
2014 8-2
2013 3-1
2012 3-2
Record 14-6
Dog and Under Cover 8 of 20
First half is 13-8 0-1 this year.
The other game is a scenario that produces quite a few plays and I out lined it in a previous post.
Memphis Over 201.5 69-45 is 3 year record.
it is 8-4 this year and dog and over hits 36% of the time.
First 3 year record 67-46 and also 8-4 this year.
One other game is the first half under in Washington.
Has not much of a track record.....just 7 plays in 3 years and none this year. Has won 6 times and 5 out of the seven the home team covers.
As Always Good Luck
Northern Star
Hey NorthStore, thanks for always posting. Much appreciated.
Now a serious question: With this system you have going on, do you believe it may have an error in the system, where the curve will eventually meet the mean?
In that case, could fading essentially be the best outcome for the future?
I faded last nights post just to test this out, and currently I am 5-1, and looking like a 6-1 after tonights last play. However, do you happen to have this years total win/loss record?
I know this may come out to sound harsh, but I honestly want your opinion on this, and I am just trying this as a test trial for very small units. Again, Im new here, but I am sure judging by others posts you are an awesome capper. But would like your input on this. Otherwise, I will not continue to attempt this.
Now a serious question: With this system you have going on, do you believe it may have an error in the system, where the curve will eventually meet the mean?
In that case, could fading essentially be the best outcome for the future?
I faded last nights post just to test this out, and currently I am 5-1, and looking like a 6-1 after tonights last play. However, do you happen to have this years total win/loss record?
I know this may come out to sound harsh, but I honestly want your opinion on this, and I am just trying this as a test trial for very small units. Again, Im new here, but I am sure judging by others posts you are an awesome capper. But would like your input on this. Otherwise, I will not continue to attempt this.
It is not a system.....it is a mathematical program. Each day Vegas runs numbers and posts a line. Each day my program uses the data I enter. It also calculates a line for 3 of the four methods. It then compares my line to the Vegas line. If the difference is considered large enough based on close to 7,000 previous games then it makes a selection. Then if more than one of the two agree I look at what has happened in the past when this has happened. I think if anyone sat at my kitchen table and talked about what would be logical ways to evaluate a game they would think all four of my methods are we'll thought out a logical.
What advantage do I have over vegas? For one they are not trying to predict a score....they are just trying to get even money on each side.
People have an unrealistic expectation of what should be expected. I consider a handicapper that can hit around 55 percent a solid handicapper. If you can get in the 57 to 58 percent range you are a great handicapper. There are very few handicappers that I have ever seen I would consider great. Many post games with lines not available or throw in money lines to make their record better or the do well for a short period of time. The best handicapper I ever saw gave one game on Saturday and on on Sunday in football the fact that he was very selective probably helped make his record so good....was a service by the name of Underdog. I use to say he was just under God the way he picked them. There have been a few others that have written programs and had success and when that happens they have the ability to move the line. Very few can move the line.
The goal of the program is to make a significant number of plays and get in the 57 to 58 percent range. There is one other thing whenthe program for instance shows 70 percent under first half and 67 percent under in the game......logically if I win the first half I also increase the probability of winning the game play too. So if someone plays both they increase the probability of 2-0 or 0-2.
you can use the information however you want but one of the hardest things to do is to try to "time" when to play with or against someone.
On the Internet there are maybe a handful of posters who I see that I consider their opinions very valuable......and everyone of them will have times when they struggle at times but overall I have found that I like their style or something that makes me think they know,what they are doing.
There are way more people that post and have put little or no time into handicapping the game. Or they have spent time but they don't have the ability to analyze data or information to make a good selection. They may go on a win streak but probably not for long.
i think the most beatable sport is nba and totals. No issues with weather, every court is same size, they play a large number of games and for a total in the nba one bad play or mistake won't change the outcome of almost all games.
Northern Star
What advantage do I have over vegas? For one they are not trying to predict a score....they are just trying to get even money on each side.
People have an unrealistic expectation of what should be expected. I consider a handicapper that can hit around 55 percent a solid handicapper. If you can get in the 57 to 58 percent range you are a great handicapper. There are very few handicappers that I have ever seen I would consider great. Many post games with lines not available or throw in money lines to make their record better or the do well for a short period of time. The best handicapper I ever saw gave one game on Saturday and on on Sunday in football the fact that he was very selective probably helped make his record so good....was a service by the name of Underdog. I use to say he was just under God the way he picked them. There have been a few others that have written programs and had success and when that happens they have the ability to move the line. Very few can move the line.
The goal of the program is to make a significant number of plays and get in the 57 to 58 percent range. There is one other thing whenthe program for instance shows 70 percent under first half and 67 percent under in the game......logically if I win the first half I also increase the probability of winning the game play too. So if someone plays both they increase the probability of 2-0 or 0-2.
you can use the information however you want but one of the hardest things to do is to try to "time" when to play with or against someone.
On the Internet there are maybe a handful of posters who I see that I consider their opinions very valuable......and everyone of them will have times when they struggle at times but overall I have found that I like their style or something that makes me think they know,what they are doing.
There are way more people that post and have put little or no time into handicapping the game. Or they have spent time but they don't have the ability to analyze data or information to make a good selection. They may go on a win streak but probably not for long.
i think the most beatable sport is nba and totals. No issues with weather, every court is same size, they play a large number of games and for a total in the nba one bad play or mistake won't change the outcome of almost all games.
Northern Star
