THE SHRINK said:
Let's focus on today. I could post pages of winners I have posted here. Does not pay well.
Rule #1, Indy can beat the Celtics outright. #4 Line movement, sharps came in and bought all of the 3 1/2 down. By your definition, the Right side. Who would buy a dog down early? #7 Defense, which of these two have the better, playoff experienced defense? You take the chalk, that powerful division. That outstanding ATS record in the playoffs. I am looking for Pacers to step up in the playoffs, and I think without Artest they may actually be a better playoff team.
Let me post at the Tracker Forum...Best Wishes...OF:digit:
OMNIVOROUS FROG said:
Your ARROGANCE in the post above called for me to remind you that it wasn't only ODU that I have been successful on this year. I listed 2 NBA games for the FIRST & ONLY time this year year just a few nights ago and they both were easy WINNERS...
Now as far as line movement, the sharps I know TODAY have bet the Celtics and moved the line to 3 minus 15 at many places and 3 1/2 at ASAP...
Laying 3 flat when 3 minus 15 and 3 1/2's are out there is not such a bad thing...
The later line moves are much more important to this capper than the earlier ones due to a host of reasons I'll share for another time...
Good Luck,
THE SHRINK
THE SHRINK said:
So sorry our glorious leader if I came across as ARROGANT. That was not my intent. I had no idea those two NBA plays on the meaningless games were your only plays of the year. I guess they were very impotant to you. I just try to focus on what is in front of me not behind. My most humblest apology for belittling your great victories. Those were just great plays The SHRINK, I just forgot because I passed and went fishing. I forgot to kiss the ring, I will try not to let it happen again your HIGHNESS. Please forgive me for being opposite of you again. I prefer the points and Indy. Will you please let us know in advance if you are buying any points?
Best Wishes...OF:howdy:
Shrink:
Wanted to thank you for taking the time to write your thoughts on handicapping the NBA playoffs. Although I don't agree with each and every element and incorporate additional factors into my own handicapping, still a valuable tool provided to the forum. One of the things that I have long felt would be of great assistance to the RX members, posters and viewers would be for those that are most experienced in this business to share, not just selections, but the details on those specific elements they use when handicapping a particular sport or game. For the less experienced, such teachings can go a long way in developing their abilities in the future. Would like to see more of this in the future. After all, the primary focus of this site is gambling although the social aspects are important as well.
Best of luck to you throughout the NBA playoffs and beyond.
Wanted to thank you for taking the time to write your thoughts on handicapping the NBA playoffs. Although I don't agree with each and every element and incorporate additional factors into my own handicapping, still a valuable tool provided to the forum. One of the things that I have long felt would be of great assistance to the RX members, posters and viewers would be for those that are most experienced in this business to share, not just selections, but the details on those specific elements they use when handicapping a particular sport or game. For the less experienced, such teachings can go a long way in developing their abilities in the future. Would like to see more of this in the future. After all, the primary focus of this site is gambling although the social aspects are important as well.
Best of luck to you throughout the NBA playoffs and beyond.
Great article! But I have to chime in on buying points on/off 2
I agreed with all of it, until the very end.
Recommending to buy on, but not off a number is wrong. If a number is important enough to pay 10 cents to get on it, then mathematically of course it it worth it to pay the next 10 cents to buy off it.
You can argue that you are saving 1.1 units in the first buy if the number hits, and only 1.0 units with the second buy. The flip side is that laying -120 vs. -110 represents a larger percentage outlay than laying -130 vs. laying -120. All of this is totally unnecessary, since the math dictates the answer.
Bottom line, it's a simple question. Does fav by 2 hit over 4.5%? Shrink says it does in the playoffs. I disagree. However, EVEN IF SHRINK IS RIGHT, then he has to advocate buying THROUGH the 2. Recommending the buy only onto the number would be inconsisent and wrong.
THE MATH. Assume fav by 2 hits at a 5% clip (it doesn't but let's go with it.........again we have to use a number above 4.5% since if we don't we cannot justify the buy onto 2)
Assume at the line is of -2.5 our team (call them Boston) covers 520 of 480 games, 52%. In those 1000 games, 50 will land on 2.
At Boston -1.5, -110 we go 520-480 and lose 8 units over 1000 plays.
At Boston -2 -120, we go 520-430-50 and make 4 units over 1000 plays (turning a small loser at -2.5 -110 into a small winner!)
At Boston -1.5 -130, we go 570-430 and make 11 units.
(it becomes fairly obvious that if the 1st buy makes money, the second buy makes more!)
........With or Without Viagara, it does not matter
I agreed with all of it, until the very end.
Recommending to buy on, but not off a number is wrong. If a number is important enough to pay 10 cents to get on it, then mathematically of course it it worth it to pay the next 10 cents to buy off it.
You can argue that you are saving 1.1 units in the first buy if the number hits, and only 1.0 units with the second buy. The flip side is that laying -120 vs. -110 represents a larger percentage outlay than laying -130 vs. laying -120. All of this is totally unnecessary, since the math dictates the answer.
Bottom line, it's a simple question. Does fav by 2 hit over 4.5%? Shrink says it does in the playoffs. I disagree. However, EVEN IF SHRINK IS RIGHT, then he has to advocate buying THROUGH the 2. Recommending the buy only onto the number would be inconsisent and wrong.
THE MATH. Assume fav by 2 hits at a 5% clip (it doesn't but let's go with it.........again we have to use a number above 4.5% since if we don't we cannot justify the buy onto 2)
Assume at the line is of -2.5 our team (call them Boston) covers 520 of 480 games, 52%. In those 1000 games, 50 will land on 2.
At Boston -1.5, -110 we go 520-480 and lose 8 units over 1000 plays.
At Boston -2 -120, we go 520-430-50 and make 4 units over 1000 plays (turning a small loser at -2.5 -110 into a small winner!)
At Boston -1.5 -130, we go 570-430 and make 11 units.
(it becomes fairly obvious that if the 1st buy makes money, the second buy makes more!)
........With or Without Viagara, it does not matter
oldmanTED said:
Thank you OMT...
Coming from you, that means a lot.
I wasn't expecting everyone to agree, but I did want to provide some food for thought that might generate further discussion...
Mission accomplished, methinks...
Froggie,
I have nothing else to say to u.
U win...
Rivit...
Rivit...
Rivit...
Best of Luck guys on the games today & tonight,
Fezzik,
I see where you are coming from and I never understood why BW only bet ONTO the 2 and not off of it. I figure if he doesn't, there's a GOOD reason why not...
THE SHRINK
I never, repeat never buy in the NBA. My goal is the lowest juice possible. My opinion, there just is not any value, or enough value to justify the 100% for the half. No number key enough. No comparison to NFL 3, not even 7. Why do I want to double, if not triple my juice, on a 2? First, I look at real life. Last year in playoffs, how many games landed 2, that were lined 2? None? So if you were fortunate to hit 50%, you lost double juice on every game, with zero return. I have also witnessed entire NBA playoffs where close to nothing hit, let alone any 2's. Knock on wood.
Reduced juice is for me...OF
Reduced juice is for me...OF
O Frog:
Just trying to pick your brain here. If I were to bet on Dallas today, I had the choice of betting -5 -110, or -5.5 -105. I would have chosen the -5 -110, would you have chosen the -5.5 because the juice is lower or paid the extra 5 cents for the half?
Just trying to pick your brain here. If I were to bet on Dallas today, I had the choice of betting -5 -110, or -5.5 -105. I would have chosen the -5 -110, would you have chosen the -5.5 because the juice is lower or paid the extra 5 cents for the half?
