How to Beat the NFL : Teasers 2012

[Akillies]

week 2
3-0
+5.4 u

year to date
4-2
+4.3 u

teams
6-2

 

[GunShark]

Tease the Patriots for Week 3. It's a good spot to tease.

 

[Cubsfan301]

Here's my play based on the system

nyg-bears-boys

nyg-bears
nyg-boys
boys-bears

 

[Akillies]

slim pickins this week
tonite:

1.1u to win 1u
nyg +8.5 dal -2

 

[zebguy]

Hey Akillies - I am intrigued by these teaser plays ... but I have a few questions:

Why not the Bears ? Some have them at -7 and some at 7.5
New Orleans ? Most have them at -8 or 7.5 right now
New England ? I have them at +2.5 (some may have 3)

Don't all of these qualify ?

Thanks for your input ...

 

[Akillies]

Hey Akillies - I am intrigued by these teaser plays ... but I have a few questions:

Why not the Bears ? Some have them at -7 and some at 7.5
New Orleans ? Most have them at -8 or 7.5 right now
New England ? I have them at +2.5 (some may have 3)

Don't all of these qualify ?

Thanks for your input ...

must wait till lines are done moving, read the beginning of the thread

 

[Cutler'sThumb]

Nice work Akillies. Figuring out a good system for NFL isn't easy.

I'm reading thru trying to get caught up. One question: why wasn't Mia a HD play last week? They were +2.5 Sunday morning.

 

[Green17]

Nice work Akillies. Figuring out a good system for NFL isn't easy.

I'm reading thru trying to get caught up. One question: why wasn't Mia a HD play last week? They were +2.5 Sunday morning.

Let me answer that for Akillies if it is ok with him:

The highest percentage winners come from HF of 7.5 - 8.5 and RD of 1.5 - 2.5.
You can reference page 1 of this thread, posted entry #3.

A good case in point regarding line movements and why Akillies waits to make a play until the lines set prior to game time is in the Giants-Panthers game where early in the week NYG were RF of 1.5 and then the line moved to +2.5.
I realize that either number would have been a winner in this case. However this is the type of movement that he is looking for in order to settle on the play or make it a no play. Most cases don't end up in a blowout as the NYG game.

Hope that helps.

Akillies, correct me if you feel I have made an error or omission in the explanation. And, if you would rather field all questions in your thread by yourself, just let me know.

 

[galante118]

miami was also home and the system shows its better for road dogs and home favorite. therefore teasing mia up last week at home wasnt a play just like teasing SF down this week (road favorite) isnt a play

 

[Akillies]

Nice work Akillies. Figuring out a good system for NFL isn't easy.

I'm reading thru trying to get caught up. One question: why wasn't Mia a HD play last week? They were +2.5 Sunday morning.

thanks but i didnt figure it out, dont play hd. do play hf and rd

 

[Cutler'sThumb]

Ok, thanks for the clarification guys. Now that I look at post #3 more carefully it's easy to see why RD and HF are the best plays.

 

[Akillies]

this is a good week to illustrate the problems trying to win with this system, there are numerous teams that qualify under basic strategy [bs] but not in this system. you could play any or all of these hd and rf, but it has proven to be a loser in the most recent past. very likely i will have no more plays this week, just depends on line moves.

 

[galante118]

chicago and NE fit the system along with dallas( which you already have in), dont they?

 

[Akillies]

chicago and NE fit the system along with dallas( which you already have in), dont they?

this is a good week to illustrate the problems trying to win with this system, there are numerous teams that qualify under basic strategy [bs] but not in this system. you could play any or all of these hd and rf, but it has proven to be a loser in the most recent past. very likely i will have no more plays this week, just depends on line moves.

 

[zeenon53]

I couldn't help but play CIN ATL and NE already. It's close enough for me to game time.

 

[Akillies]

I couldn't help but play CIN ATL and NE already. It's close enough for me to game time.

cin and atl dont qualify, and ne does at the moment, but the lines will move. and then, when they move is when you should play teasers cause the final score is more likely to fall within the 6pt teaser range. If atl and cin move to where you can get at least +10 then i will likely play them

 

[Akillies]

risking 1u to win 1.8u
n o -2, dal -2 , n e +8.5

 

[Green17]

Thank you sir.

 

[Akillies]

saints and 49ers ruin a lot of teasers

 

[LarryLarge]

saints and 49ers ruin a lot of teasers

Saints ruined a RR with 2's and the 3 with NE and Dall. Big Swing!