How to Beat the NFL : Teasers 2012

[Akillies]

Good to see you back Akillies.
Always look forward to your work and thank you in advance for lending your insight to us.

Now best wishes for a profitable 2012 season.

thanks and good to see you here again

 

[Akillies]

So for this week right now it looks like PIT +7.5, NO -1.5, DET-1.5

That's playing no RF or HD.

best to wait as the lines as the lines are moving, l like all three and will likely be pic's

 

[Akillies]

sportsbook.ag still has +180 for now

do you think they are worth checking out?

 

[Cyphelp]

Akillies my local accepts 6point teasers at 180 for 3teamers and 2team at -100. The question do I go with the 2 or the 3 team teaser for the system.What would you do? As of now this week it seems that no Pitt and the lions fill the criteria.Thank you

 

[boatboatboat]

Teasers, unlike straight bets, are best played as late as possible.

This is due to the line being most accurate as kickoff approaches, [In theory]. Straight bets are best made before the lines have been adjusted by smart money. As opposed to a teaser wager where you want the line to be as accurate as possible, because it reduces the chance of losing any teaser bet.



.

I dont understand, if the early line is OFF, and you are pretty sure it will change, and you are able to use the fact that it is OFF to your advantage, why wouldnt you wager early?

 

[varkeyboy]

Not being able to get teasers anymore has really cut into NFL profits the last few years, sadly.

Why don't you use 5dimes for teasers?? Or other books that offer them?

 

[Akillies]

Akillies my local accepts 6point teasers at 180 for 3teamers and 2team at -100. The question do I go with the 2 or the 3 team teaser for the system.What would you do? As of now this week it seems that no Pitt and the lions fill the criteria.Thank you

2-teamers are better due to lower variance, if there are many qualifiers it may be too many to play 2-teamers then go for 3-teamers

 

[Akillies]

Why don't you use 5dimes for teasers?? Or other books that offer them?

Originally Posted by reallydog
isnt 5dimes +180 as long as you pick ties reduce?



cant play any of these at 5 dimes, they adjust the lines for teasers. they have great odds however. For example if you were to try and play a 1.5pt. underdog for instance at 5 dimes you would only get a line of pic = +6 in a teaser, which is no good.​

 

[Akillies]

if you dont believe me
check 5 dimes for yourself, just try and play the teasers i recommend.
{you cant}

 

[Akillies]

I dont understand, if the early line is OFF, and you are pretty sure it will change, and you are able to use the fact that it is OFF to your advantage, why wouldnt you wager early?

its difficult to answer, if you are sure of which way the line is going to move fire away. see above for an example of how well i do when i try to predict the market, so bad i have to stop trying.

 

[boatboatboat]

I have always heard that NCAA teasers dont make cents. Do you find that to be true?

 

[JacktoVegas]

Essentially this teaser-strategy saves you handicapping time, if it has positive expectation.

A bettor that doesnt understand the NFL might have a chance if instead of hitting early lines, not knowing which ones are off, waits until gameday to wong-tease sharp lines, crossing 3 and 7. This is the bettors edge, and getting the best odds he can. But as OP said, good odds on teasers now bye bye

 

[Akillies]

I have always heard that NCAA teasers dont make cents. Do you find that to be true?

never seen any subset of cfb that shows a positive ev for teasers

 

[sendacash]

I tried some of these last year, not for me but good luck.

 

[boatboatboat]

most of what I am seeing out there for 2 teams 6 pts, is 110 bet to win 100.

Is that now pretty much the standard?

 

[Akillies]

most of what I am seeing out there for 2 teams 6 pts, is 110 bet to win 100.

Is that now pretty much the standard?

-120 or they adjust the lines to combat teasers as i said above

 

[jed_edwards51]

PARLAY LOCK MONEY LINES AND MAYBE 1 TOSS UP AND YOU'LL GET NICE JUICE

EXAMPLE..

EAGLES vs. BROWNIES
BUFFALO vs. JETS
SAINTS vs. SKINS
PATS vs. TITANS
TEXANS vs. PHINS
LIONS vs. RAMS

1:5.705 odds

ONLY GAME YOUR "BETTING" ON IS BUFFALO

 

[Akillies]

keep on topic please
if you want to make pics please create your own thread

PARLAY LOCK MONEY LINES AND MAYBE 1 TOSS UP AND YOU'LL GET NICE JUICE

EXAMPLE..

EAGLES vs. BROWNIES
BUFFALO vs. JETS
SAINTS vs. SKINS
PATS vs. TITANS
TEXANS vs. PHINS
LIONS vs. RAMS

1:5.705 odds

ONLY GAME YOUR "BETTING" ON IS BUFFALO

 

[cdsmoney]

dont know anything about 5 pt teasers so i dont recommend them. i played n o as well, but the line has moved against us, down to -7.

OK. Starting to get a clearer picture here. Originally, I had only mentioned testing out the 5-point tease, because I thought your data sets counted any ATS wins the crossed the 7 or 3. I'm guessing now your data sets are based on getting the 6-point tease and counting wins based on the final line you get (i.e. a 2.5 dog up to 8.5, etc.). I haven't yet seen 5Dimes change the line on any of the ones I've tried. But, as you mentioned it isn't yet game day (so it is certainly something they could have their software set up todo do on 'the day of').

 

[Akillies]

OK. Starting to get a clearer picture here. Originally, I had only mentioned testing out the 5-point tease, because I thought your data sets counted any ATS wins the crossed the 7 or 3. I'm guessing now your data sets are based on getting the 6-point tease and counting wins based on the final line you get (i.e. a 2.5 dog up to 8.5, etc.). I haven't yet seen 5Dimes change the line on any of the ones I've tried. But, as you mentioned it isn't yet game day (so it is certainly something they could have their software set up todo do on 'the day of').

if you dont believe me
check 5 dimes for yourself, just try and play the teasers i recommend.
{you cant}