How to Beat the NFL : Teasers 2012

[Akillies]

After a successful season last year I will outline the methodology and plays in this thread, in an attempt to beat the books with teasers in the NFL.

Last year was a good year for teaser players, and the widespread publicity has had the expected result. The books have gone into full blown teaser defense mode. I believe pinnacle started this at least five years ago, soon followed by 5dimes, now every shop has followed to varying extent. The manner varies by book, some adjust the spread [5dimes] while some have adjusted the juice ..

If any one knows of somewhere that offers 6pt teasers @ -100 for two teamers or +180 for 3-teamers, please let us know..


I had adjusted the strategy from 2 to 3 teamers due to the availability of +180 on 3 teamers. Which is equivalent to a 2-team @ -100. The books have caught on and i dont have access to them at any reputable book, Cris for instance now pays +155, heritage as low as +116.

Finding a place that will take teaser action has now become the major challenge in winning.

 

[Akillies]

Teasers, unlike straight bets, are best played as late as possible.

This is due to the line being most accurate as kickoff approaches, [In theory]. Straight bets are best made before the lines have been adjusted by smart money. As opposed to a teaser wager where you want the line to be as accurate as possible, because it reduces the chance of losing any teaser bet.

Tread lightly in the first week, since the lines are the most inaccurate of the entire year. the stats are out there to prove this point. They also show after week 1, adjustments will be made and the inaccuracies eliminated.
Using the same logic, the lines are tightest during the playoffs and teasers even more powerful. However limited opportunities due to smaller sample size.

 

[Akillies]

basic strategy - wong teasers

Basic strategy (B.S.) teasers, also referred to as Wong teasers.
As probably everyone knows they are simply Dogs 1.5 to 2.5 teased up and Favs 7.5 to 8.5 teased down 6 points. The theory is to capture the "whole" 3 and 7.

A list of historical data for B.S. teasers for the previous 5 years. [2010 - 2005].

RD1.5 to 2.5, 64-22-1 for 74.4%
HD1.5 to 2.5, 41-26-0 for 61.2%
subtotal dogs, 105-48-1 for 68.6%

RF7.5 to 8.5, 15-13-0 for 53.6%
HF7.5 to 8.5, 53-14-0 for 79.1%
Subtotal Favs, 68-27-0 for 71.6%

{I have not been able to find the data for the most recent season, likely due to the unwanted attention this data drew, suffice to assume it would reinforce the points i will be making below}


Analysis of the data shows, simple basic strategy no longer is profitable. Simply eliminating rf [road fav] and hd [home dogs] results in a profitable situation, however it will yield very few plays. This week for teasers has many qualifying plays. Last two years the results of this were very profitable.

 

[zeenon53]

Interesting, I was reading last years thread. I may have to participate in this!

 

[zeenon53]

Just checked, my local does +180 on 3 teams 6pts.

 

[douglas]

Great Stuff Again .............good luck this season .

 

[LarryLarge]

Is it ever advisable to play the 7 point T and take the 9' HF down to get more opportunities?

 

[reallydog]

isnt 5dimes +180 as long as you pick ties reduce?

 

[Akillies]

Just checked, my local does +180 on 3 teams 6pts.

fire away, until he cuts you off, see how long it takes

 

[Akillies]

isnt 5dimes +180 as long as you pick ties reduce?

cant play any of these at 5 dimes, they adjust the lines for teasers. they have great odds however. For example if you were to try and play a 1.5pt. underdog for instance at 5 dimes you would only get a line of pic = +6 in a teaser, which is no good.

 

[Akillies]

Is it ever advisable to play the 7 point T and take the 9' HF down to get more opportunities?

if the data was published for 7-pt i dont recall it, however i think the conclusion was the juice is too high to overcome.

 

[bigdogdan2]

sportsbook.ag still has +180 for now

 

[thecruncher]

Not being able to get teasers anymore has really cut into NFL profits the last few years, sadly.

 

[zeenon53]

So for this week right now it looks like PIT +7.5, NO -1.5, DET-1.5

That's playing no RF or HD.

 

[Green17]

Good to see you back Akillies.
Always look forward to your work and thank you in advance for lending your insight to us.

Now best wishes for a profitable 2012 season.

 

[reallydog]

I see. So we basically cant do it. Akillies any ideas for how we can adjust to the books. maybe a 4 team teaser?

 

[AdamINC]

bodog.ca offers +165 on 3 teamer

 

[cdsmoney]

cant play any of these at 5 dimes, they adjust the lines for teasers. they have great odds however. For example if you were to try and play a 1.5pt. underdog for instance at 5 dimes you would only get a line of pic = +6 in a teaser, which is no good.

You can still catch them on some lines though. I just tried putting in a 5 point/2team on Arizona (+7.5)/KC (+7.5) and was able to get +107. And, was able to cross New Orleans to -2.5 in a 6 point +100 teaser (it was a ties reduce teaser but of course that doesn't matter with the half point).

Keep in mind, I could be clueless as to how this whole two team teaser strategy works, so I might not have looked at them correctly.

 

[Akillies]

You can still catch them on some lines though. I just tried putting in a 5 point/2team on Arizona (+7.5)/KC (+7.5) and was able to get +107. And, was able to cross New Orleans to -2.5 in a 6 point +100 teaser (it was a ties reduce teaser but of course that doesn't matter with the half point).

Keep in mind, I could be clueless as to how this whole two team teaser strategy works, so I might not have looked at them correctly.

dont know anything about 5 pt teasers so i dont recommend them. i played n o as well, but the line has moved against us, down to -7.

 

[Akillies]

I see. So we basically cant do it. Akillies any ideas for how we can adjust to the books. maybe a 4 team teaser?

never seen data on 4 teamers, but the first problem would be finding enough plays to start with