Same kinda thing went on last weekend with Michigan... I posted before the lines came out that Minny would win outright. I thought it would open at 6 and it opened at 8.. Then it shot up to 13.5... Head scratcher for sure... It stopped me in my tracks but I ended up popping at game time +12 I believe. I use to be the worlds worst at letting big line movements that actually helped my line slow me down and sometimes get me totally off my play even though I was getting 3-5 points of help. I finally realized that I wasn't that smart lol. That's not saying that I don't pay attention to LM now because I do. I finally just made a decision to trust my numbers and my eyes. When I was trying to read the movement all it was doing was making my judgement cloudy. I now just do my due diligence, run my numbers, and trust what I see on tape then make my plays. I've been better with that model because I'm clear headed and don't outthink myself... Whether I have a good weekend or go Ofer I feel much better about my process... I have friends like yourself who have a good feel for trap and reverse trap lines and weird movements on a game.. That's just not my best bet... I watch a lot of replay football during the week and live football on Saturdays. I do run numbers and do the math but if the numbers do not line up with what my eyes tell me I lay off.. I guess I'm more of a grinder. It's amazing how many different styles there are and everybody has the same goal to beat the line.
Now Vegas is smart because they know joe public well... They knew last week that Michigan was going to get hit hard just because of the name on the Jerseys. The public wasnt going to unload on Minny because they have never watched Minny and just thought Michigan would bounce back strong.... I guarantee when that line was getting pounced on that the books were licking there chops... Public perception of the name on the front of jersey is very strong.. When big schools play not so well known schools they can inflate the numbers no matter what. Even if the smaller school is a better team and the line should be a pickem they can set it at a TD knowing that huge alumni bases will still bet on there school.. It's just a theory of mine and you have to do your homework to try and figure out where the softer lines are. East Carolina is a good example this year.. A very good team catching some big numbers early.. Vandy and Temple early this year is another one.. Vandy had a good year last year but lost all there play makers... Temple finished strong last year and were trending upward where vandy was breaking in a new coach... Vandy was -17. Why? Because they play in the SEC and had a decent year last year... Who the hell is Temple? Joe public was all over vandy for a while... That is still my biggest play to date this year and it included a money line play... Sorry for being long winded but I love this stuff lol
Final Card:
Mississippi State -1: 6 Units
Rutgers -3: 5 Units
Oklahoma -4: 5 Units
Oklahoma under 57: 6 Units
Ole Miss under 53: 4 Units
Mississippi State ML -135- 2 Units
No time for write ups on the unders... It's Friday and Bama is in town... Bout to party for 2 days and watch Ole Miss kick Bamas ass
I told ya later in the week I would let my fan side out! Hotty Toddy Gents!
Mississippi State -1: 6 Units
Rutgers -3: 5 Units
Oklahoma -4: 5 Units
Oklahoma under 57: 6 Units
Ole Miss under 53: 4 Units
Mississippi State ML -135- 2 Units
No time for write ups on the unders... It's Friday and Bama is in town... Bout to party for 2 days and watch Ole Miss kick Bamas ass
I told ya later in the week I would let my fan side out! Hotty Toddy Gents!
