I don't know what rush_man's problem is , but i have a theory. ...I think he got suckered by Lorcet 10 and now he thinks everybody thats winning is posting bogus numbers. (he was also in whity winners thread asking him to prove his record)
Hotty , you're very respected and appreciated here , please just ignore him. BOL
It's cool ontheoutside! I do that more than I should and I'm still a young buck... I missed out on the early -4 line because neither of my books had that line opened up. I only play lines that I actually bet... Both now have it Ole Miss +6.5 -120 so it's trending down at this moment for me if I could get -5.5 I will lock it in if I can get it at -115 or better... Yes I predicted 31-13 but I also said if Ole Miss can be even or win the turnover battle that I thought it would be close... Right now I could buy it to -5.5 with -125 juice... Gonna wait around and see what happens...
Mississippi State -1- This line has jumped 5.5 points in favor of the Dogs... It opened at A&M -2.5 and now I'm seeing Miss State -2.5--3... I believe this one closes at -3 or -3.5... The Aggies are coming off a Physical road game against Arkansas where they got extremely lucky to win it.. Hell the Hogs blew the game.. I know it was a neutral site game but any time you leave the comforts of home in college you can consider it a road game. Arkansas shut down the Aggies for 3 and a half quarters... The Aggies took the ball down the field and scored in the first minute.. Only scored one more TD until the 4th quarter... Arkansas had a great game plan to beat A&M.
The Aggies now have to pack up and head to Starkville for a 11AM local kick... Gah I hate breakfast football.. I don't think any top 25 team should kick off before 3:30 EST.. When MState have a decent to good football Starkville can be a very hard place to play. They have an unfair advantage with them damn cow bells... Who knows why they're the only school allowed to have artificial noisemakers.. The Cow Bell is very very loud.. It turns 60,000 people into 90,000 for big games. They aren't suppose to ring them during play but you can forget that. That place will be rocking at 11 that morning.
Now to the game... The Aggies are preparing for there third road contest in 3 weeks. That takes a toll on any team college or pro. Mississippi State is coming off a bye week and will be ready to play. One of my contacts said the coaching staff did a great job of allowing the players receive praise after they got back home from the beat down of LSU and then reeled them back in early last week by showing them the game film of Johnny Football rolling there ass in Starkville from 2 years ago and then showed the defense the film of A&M hanging 50 on them last year... They said the team has responded well with 2 great weeks of practice. MState is led by a huge junior and Senior class and I expect them to play great this week... MState does lose there starting center Dillon Day (the guy who stomped LSU players). He's a good player but I have been informed that the coaches aren't overly concerned because State has a replacement that has played there before and they trust... Also the bye week came perfect for MState as they don't have to worry about a let down and had ample time to prepare during the off week. MStates secondary has been picked on earlier in the year. The secondary has played better in the last 2 games and have developed some confidence. The dogs have a very, very, good front 7. There linebackers are very fast, athletic, and long... There middle backer and probable 1st round draft pick Benardrick McKinney is 6'5 240 pounds and looks like hes shot of a cannon when pursuing the ball... IMO opinion MState has the best front Four in the SEC... Preston Smith has won 3 SEC Dlineman of the week awards through 4 games. He didnt win that award against LSU when he had 2 sacks... Preston is 6'6 270 and Chris Jones goes 6'5 310. Jones was a pre season All American... States Dline is complete because they show up against any style offense... That front 4 is big, long, and athletic... States coaches will not have to depend blitzing much... In most most cases Saturday they will be able to rush 3-4 and at most 5... Even when this group is blocked they do an incredible job of getting in throwing lanes and getting the go go gadget arms up to alter throws and deflect passes... They also do a great job of intercepting the deflected passes... With it being loud with them bells ringing I expect the Dline to make some huge plays Saturday... Now I don't expect A&M to get totally shut down.. They are just to good offensively to be shut down the entire game.. Sumlin is an offensive guru if there ever was one... I look for State to make some big momentum type of plays and they will feed off the noise on defense. They just flat out fly to the football.
On offense: For the first time in the Mullen era Miss State has a potent offense... They can beat you three ways... Throwing the football, Running the football, and with the QB run... Yep just like when he was at Florida... State has very good weapons on the outside.. State has Lewis which is there 5'9 playmaker and he's very good... He's not Percy but who is.. They like the quick slants, jet sweeps, and bubble screens to Lewis.. They have a very underrated receiver in De'Runnya Wilson who is 6'5 225 with very good ball skills. He's a sophomore who will play in the NFL.. State also has a stable of solid Running Backs who run extremely hard and with a physical style. The oline has been playing very good early on. The Oline went to LSU at night and dominated.. They play physical and on the edge of dirty from snap 1. They are a nasty bunch. Then there's Dak Prescott. He had his coming out party against LSU. Honestly nobody in the state of Mississippi was surprised at how he or the team played. I honestly think that MStates offense will have there way with Aggies from the kick off. This is hands down the most balanced offense and the best overall offense they have faced this year. I look for MState to wear them down and have a good many shot plays this week.. I look for state to attack early with a down hill run game and short passing game. Dak will most likely give it to the backs early and often.. As the game wears on look for State to go play action and attack with the intermediate and deep passing game. Prescott will then start keeping the rock on the zone read plays and Mullen will call straight QB Power as they wear down the front 7...
Bottom Line: This is a terrible spot for A&M... Playing there 3rd straight road game and second straight against a very physical team. The Aggies aren't great on defense and will be facing a very solid balanced attack. I do believe A&M will score some point but won't be able to keep up with State. Long Story short is BOTH teams are good on offense but I expect the State defense to make more stops and create more turnovers. I saw where the total opened at 62 but my books opened it at 68.5. I believe that total is about right. This is my 3rd straight game playing Miss State ATS.. I personally do not think that Vegas has caught up with the Bulldogs yet... I honestly expected Miss State to open favored 5.5 to 6... I posted it as a 6 unit play before I talked with some contacts... Ill most likely add 2-3 units at -2 and I'm waiting on the Moneyline to come out. I expect the A&M ML to get hit fairly hard and hopefully that will allow some good value at a pickem for State.
- My feeling is that Miss State will come out on fire... I will most likely make a play on MState 1st half.
In Starkville that team isn't wanting to have a good year... There goal is to win the West and SEC and they expect to win both. To keep that dream alive they must win in this spot at home off a bye week... 41-27 MState is my prediction.
Sorry for the long boring post...
The Aggies now have to pack up and head to Starkville for a 11AM local kick... Gah I hate breakfast football.. I don't think any top 25 team should kick off before 3:30 EST.. When MState have a decent to good football Starkville can be a very hard place to play. They have an unfair advantage with them damn cow bells... Who knows why they're the only school allowed to have artificial noisemakers.. The Cow Bell is very very loud.. It turns 60,000 people into 90,000 for big games. They aren't suppose to ring them during play but you can forget that. That place will be rocking at 11 that morning.
Now to the game... The Aggies are preparing for there third road contest in 3 weeks. That takes a toll on any team college or pro. Mississippi State is coming off a bye week and will be ready to play. One of my contacts said the coaching staff did a great job of allowing the players receive praise after they got back home from the beat down of LSU and then reeled them back in early last week by showing them the game film of Johnny Football rolling there ass in Starkville from 2 years ago and then showed the defense the film of A&M hanging 50 on them last year... They said the team has responded well with 2 great weeks of practice. MState is led by a huge junior and Senior class and I expect them to play great this week... MState does lose there starting center Dillon Day (the guy who stomped LSU players). He's a good player but I have been informed that the coaches aren't overly concerned because State has a replacement that has played there before and they trust... Also the bye week came perfect for MState as they don't have to worry about a let down and had ample time to prepare during the off week. MStates secondary has been picked on earlier in the year. The secondary has played better in the last 2 games and have developed some confidence. The dogs have a very, very, good front 7. There linebackers are very fast, athletic, and long... There middle backer and probable 1st round draft pick Benardrick McKinney is 6'5 240 pounds and looks like hes shot of a cannon when pursuing the ball... IMO opinion MState has the best front Four in the SEC... Preston Smith has won 3 SEC Dlineman of the week awards through 4 games. He didnt win that award against LSU when he had 2 sacks... Preston is 6'6 270 and Chris Jones goes 6'5 310. Jones was a pre season All American... States Dline is complete because they show up against any style offense... That front 4 is big, long, and athletic... States coaches will not have to depend blitzing much... In most most cases Saturday they will be able to rush 3-4 and at most 5... Even when this group is blocked they do an incredible job of getting in throwing lanes and getting the go go gadget arms up to alter throws and deflect passes... They also do a great job of intercepting the deflected passes... With it being loud with them bells ringing I expect the Dline to make some huge plays Saturday... Now I don't expect A&M to get totally shut down.. They are just to good offensively to be shut down the entire game.. Sumlin is an offensive guru if there ever was one... I look for State to make some big momentum type of plays and they will feed off the noise on defense. They just flat out fly to the football.
On offense: For the first time in the Mullen era Miss State has a potent offense... They can beat you three ways... Throwing the football, Running the football, and with the QB run... Yep just like when he was at Florida... State has very good weapons on the outside.. State has Lewis which is there 5'9 playmaker and he's very good... He's not Percy but who is.. They like the quick slants, jet sweeps, and bubble screens to Lewis.. They have a very underrated receiver in De'Runnya Wilson who is 6'5 225 with very good ball skills. He's a sophomore who will play in the NFL.. State also has a stable of solid Running Backs who run extremely hard and with a physical style. The oline has been playing very good early on. The Oline went to LSU at night and dominated.. They play physical and on the edge of dirty from snap 1. They are a nasty bunch. Then there's Dak Prescott. He had his coming out party against LSU. Honestly nobody in the state of Mississippi was surprised at how he or the team played. I honestly think that MStates offense will have there way with Aggies from the kick off. This is hands down the most balanced offense and the best overall offense they have faced this year. I look for MState to wear them down and have a good many shot plays this week.. I look for state to attack early with a down hill run game and short passing game. Dak will most likely give it to the backs early and often.. As the game wears on look for State to go play action and attack with the intermediate and deep passing game. Prescott will then start keeping the rock on the zone read plays and Mullen will call straight QB Power as they wear down the front 7...
Bottom Line: This is a terrible spot for A&M... Playing there 3rd straight road game and second straight against a very physical team. The Aggies aren't great on defense and will be facing a very solid balanced attack. I do believe A&M will score some point but won't be able to keep up with State. Long Story short is BOTH teams are good on offense but I expect the State defense to make more stops and create more turnovers. I saw where the total opened at 62 but my books opened it at 68.5. I believe that total is about right. This is my 3rd straight game playing Miss State ATS.. I personally do not think that Vegas has caught up with the Bulldogs yet... I honestly expected Miss State to open favored 5.5 to 6... I posted it as a 6 unit play before I talked with some contacts... Ill most likely add 2-3 units at -2 and I'm waiting on the Moneyline to come out. I expect the A&M ML to get hit fairly hard and hopefully that will allow some good value at a pickem for State.
- My feeling is that Miss State will come out on fire... I will most likely make a play on MState 1st half.
In Starkville that team isn't wanting to have a good year... There goal is to win the West and SEC and they expect to win both. To keep that dream alive they must win in this spot at home off a bye week... 41-27 MState is my prediction.
Sorry for the long boring post...
Rutgers -3- Im not over thinking this game. It appears that Michigan has quit on this staff. They have been dominated back to back weekends at home by Utah and Minnesota... This week has been nothing but distraction after distraction. Michigan has turned the ball over 14 times and only taken it away twice to leave them -12 in the turnover battle on the year. Rutgers has played fairly well all year. They are 4-1 with the one loss coming to Penn State 13-10... There are 2 teams when your coming into the Big10 that you dream of beating.... They are Ohio State and Michigan... Well Saturday they have a chance for a signature win. We all know that Michigan isn't worth a damn but make no mistake this will be Rutgers Super Bowl. They will be fired up and ready to play... I can't see a 2-3 Michigan team being ready to play at Rutgers... 28-13 Rutgers
Oklahoma -4- This is a tough road test for the Sooners but I think they will get it done. For the first time in a few years Oklahoma actually passes the eye test to me... They've already been on the road to a tough place to play in Morgantown and won. I have the line at OU -7.5... This has sucker bet written all over it but I believe Stoops coming off a Bye week will come in and get a 10-13 point win... Ill do a more in depth write up later on... I will most likely be adding an under play here as well... The current line is 57 and I believe 8 TDs and a safety is a little much for this game... 28-17 OU.
The O/L doesn't justify the past performances. If you know football, you love Rutgers. If you know handicapping, you ain't in love with no one. Who knows what went on during this past week? Was there a team meeting? Did someone step up and say, "That's enough!" These kids are passionate and they have pride and self respect. Michigan is a dangerous team right now. Their backs are against the wall and they know it better than anyone. Will they rollover and play dead or will they be a rabid dog? Ever been around a rabid dog? You don't want to be. Everyone's talking about the SEC, but this one game has everybodys attention.
Where has that fight been? I would think after ND embarrassed them they would have the fight... What about after Utah traveled cross country and destroyed them at home... Hell after the Utah game they were giving away tickets with a purchase of a coke.. If I was a leader I would of stepped up after that and made the speech... I would of thought if Michigan had fight in them they would of flexed as a 2 TD favorite over Minnesota.. They didnt and got embarrassed at home again! They have the make up of a team that has quit... I've seen this scenario first hand... The AD and Coach on the hot seat and its time to rally the troops... What happens when Rutgers takes the opening possession and drives it down for a TD or goes up 10 early.. I think they lay down. You're right from the gambling sense you know there isn't a lock on the board any week... All we can do is our homework and formulate an opinion on a game and bet it. My opinion on this game is if the entire Michigan team, players and coaches, had on Central Michigan jerseys the line would be in the 7-10 point range. I believe that Rutgers is the better football team. I believe this is a huge game for Rutgers program and I think they play well Saturday night. With saying that I wouldn't be "shocked" if Michigan won Saturday night but to win they have to play a complete game and not turn the ball over 4 times. Thus far they haven't proved they can do that. Not sure what the SEC has to do with this game. I'm no genius or a Wizard of college football bets... I could easily be way off on this one but that's why they call it gambling. Please don't take this post the wrong way as I'm not trying to be a dick. I'm just speaking my blunt opinion on this game. Are you a Michigan fan or Alum? Please respond with your opinion of how you think this game plays out...
Thanks for your honest reply. My opinion of this game has to do with the opening line, team roles, ats margins of cover or no cover and travel situation. That is my method of handicapping. Every single variable in this matchup favors Rutgers, except one...the opening line. In a sense, you could call me a student of the opening line. That is why I'm so mystified. When I saw -3, it set off every handicapping alarm that I could imagine. Let me ask you this...if the opening line would have been -2', would you still have taken Rutgers? Or would you have thought that the opening line was curiously low? Me? I'm suspicious. I'm aware of traps. Most veteran bettors are. When I first saw this line, that's what I thought. T-R-A-P. But most traps are subtle. This one, imo, is obvious to a fault. I can't remember ever seeing one one this obvious. I also have a theory on "reverse traps" and I think that's what this might be. Allow JQP to bet and win the obvious side and those who think they're clever (like yours truly) will trip over their brain, take Michigan and outsmart themselves. Then again, I also have the option of "no play". I took Michigan in a few small parlays. But safe to say, I'm very interested in how this game plays out. Thanks, again.
