Michigan St +9.5
Everyone is blinded by the Carolina blue. This team isn't invincible that was proven last season. They have a tendency to be soft, and a hard nosed, confident Michigan St team playing what is virtually a home game should provide their toughest test of the season. You can't think this team is going to go into every gym and blow out every team by double digits. It's just not going to happen. These are 18-22 year old kids. CBB is all about emotion, and execution. Tom Izzo is a master motivator, and ALWAYS has his teams prepared and playing 110%. His teams are always dominant on defense, and rebounding. It's the same story this season. They have out rebounded every opponent this season by a total of +40, as well as held each opponent to below 43% shooting (other than Maryland). Michigan St also takes care of the ball. They have been on the + side of the turnover margin in every game except the Maryland game. Kalin Lucas is doing a great job of taking care of the ball and owns a great 5.17:1 to:asst ratio. He will be key in handling UNC's defensive pressure. Not giving UNC easy buckets will go a long way with a 10 point spread. However I feel the key to the game will be on the glass. Kentucky, one of the only teams UNC played with a solid post presence was able to out rebound them, and I think Michigan St will be able to do the same, even without Suton. The Spartans rebound soundly as a team. It is a technique Izzo practices an insane amount of time compared to other coaches. Historically MSU has been one of the best rebounding teams in the country year in and year out. MSU has demonstrated such this year by averaging 14, YES 14 offensive rebounds a game. People also look past the fact that Michigan St handled this very same UNC team last season 81-58. I don't think that was a fluke. UNC has trouble with tough minded, physical teams, who rebound, and play defense. This game is going to be played in Michigan. For those who have trouble with geography that is the heart of Spartan country. Mich St will gave the energy of 75,000 fans to draw off of. Defense and rebounding is determination and having home fan support will give them the extra adrenaline to feed off. I wouldn't be surprised to see MSU pull off an upset. I mean if a preseson top 10 team playing what is virtually a home game can't cover a 10 point spread I don't know who will.