Homedawg's Tuesday Card Large MVC Play

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H.D. just started posting-going with Brad-3, memphis-6, old D ov 117
okl yesterday 1-0 ytd
 

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Hd: Any lean on Evansville -4 at home and TCU +14 at Byu? Although NIowa is playing well, you know how tough Evansville is at home this year 10-0 and historically. TCU has been playing very well with 4 wins in a row including a win last week at Texas Tech. Although I expect BYU wins its seems to me 14 points to TCU in this conference game is a lot of value. What say you....
 

Dynasty
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Hey bud you know I always respect your plays. How do you say a team that is 1-3 in their last 4 is making progress?

Im on the fence on this one. Their last win was another over time and we all know thats it is anybodys game in OT. Man, but last game they shot lights out. Thinking it will continue here? I mean everybody was sinking shots against Ill St.

When was the last time Ind St has won back to back games? Did they even do it last year?

Good luck on your play

i hope my reasoning answered some of these questions? if you were to cap this strictly from a statistical stand point, Indiana St would be a no brainer. Add in the other stuff and it makes a large play.
 

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Hd: Any lean on Evansville -4 at home and TCU +14 at Byu? Although NIowa is playing well, you know how tough Evansville is at home this year 10-0 and historically. TCU has been playing very well with 4 wins in a row including a win last week at Texas Tech. Although I expect BYU wins its seems to me 14 points to TCU in this conference game is a lot of value. What say you....

i do like the Aces at home. They just missed my cut. Ely and Holsinger are just too good at home for them to lose. As for TCU this is a team I would just back at home. Christian has done a pretty good job with them defensively, but it is asking too much right now with their personnel to go into BYU where they never lose and keep it close.
GL
 

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89% on Bradley...some ppl doubting the Indiana St pick. Thats where your at your best homedawg. GL!
 

Rx, Junior
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good luck tonight homedawg!! i used to party alot at indiana st. hopefullt tonight is the night i win back some of my party money!!!
 

Dynasty
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89% on Bradley...some ppl doubting the Indiana St pick. Thats where your at your best homedawg. GL!

i couldn't be happier. i actually see this as a no brainer for Ind St, but my thinking usually is a bit different
 

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G/L Tonight Homed.!!!
:103631605
Kind of think Tennessee will run Kentucky out of the Gym tonight. Will watch and see if my hunch is correct.d1g1t
 

Trent Tucker for three...Yeeeesssss!
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i would stay far far away from Indiana on the road. they may be a play in the home dog role but that is it. Also I can see Tulsa getting completely shut down on offense. Memphis is too strong on defense and Tulsa just doesn't have the playmakers to score consistently. I think Memphis rolls a little like Oklahoma did.

GL

That is why I like Ohio St. Why shouldn't Indiana lose as badly as they did at Illinois recently?
 

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3 Units

No Illinois +6 -110

2 Units

Buffalo +5.5 -110

Like the Buffalo play here HD, but man oh man N. Illinois is just awful. However I guess I can see the logic because Ball State probably shouldn't be laying 6 against anyone.
 

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Do you ever hedge your bets at halftime?

If any of your underdogs are up 10 or more pts at halftime. And the game line changes lets say from +3.5 to -9 would you play the opposite team in the 2nd half w/ a chance to double up or break even? I was considering hedging app state last night at half but their wasn't enough wiggle room to win both bets.
 

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Like the Buffalo play here HD, but man oh man N. Illinois is just awful. However I guess I can see the logic because Ball State probably shouldn't be laying 6 against anyone.

have to disagree. no. ill is much improved from last season. they have played a very challenging non conference schedule that should pay off come MAC play. The addition of freshman Mike Dinunno gives them a dimension they haven't had in years past....shooting. with ball st best player out I think No Ill will win this one
 

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If any of your underdogs are up 10 or more pts at halftime. And the game line changes lets say from +3.5 to -9 would you play the opposite team in the 2nd half w/ a chance to double up or break even? I was considering hedging app state last night at half but their wasn't enough wiggle room to win both bets.

The term you're looking for is "middle" if you are "on pace" to win your bet at the half and want to hedge by taking the opposite of your game bet for the 2nd Half line. That is known as looking to middle. I do it from time to time, it's all just based on what feel you have for the game once halftime rolls around and how big of a middle is there.
 

Dynasty
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On Paper it's clearly a spot to play Bradley... but the game isn't played on paper. GL

again i have to disagree. if you take the school name of the stat line it would def point towards indiana st. just look at indiana st home stats vs bradley road stats. its not even really close. bradley shoots 41.3% from the field, and 28% from 3...indiana st is at about 45% and 36.7% from 3. ind st also has better def % at home. rebounding is also in indiana st favor, and to:asst ration isn't even close 15:11.9.....bradley's hot start in the valley is clouding the judgment between these 2 teams. to say on paper bradley is clearly the play is simply untrue. bradley just looks prettier than indiana st
 

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have to disagree. no. ill is much improved from last season. they have played a very challenging non conference schedule that should pay off come MAC play. The addition of freshman Mike Dinunno gives them a dimension they haven't had in years past....shooting. with ball st best player out I think No Ill will win this one

Yeah, i'll agree with all that except the challenging schedule observation. Northern Illinois schedule right now is 317th toughest in the nation. The best teams they've seen all year are Southern Illinois, Indiana State and Air Force. Not exactly top tier teams.

Any thoughts on the Jayhawks tonight?
 

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Yeah, i'll agree with all that except the challenging schedule observation. Northern Illinois schedule right now is 317th toughest in the nation. The best teams they've seen all year are Southern Illinois, Indiana State and Air Force. Not exactly top tier teams.

Any thoughts on the Jayhawks tonight?

nothing on Kansas
 

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again i have to disagree. if you take the school name of the stat line it would def point towards indiana st. just look at indiana st home stats vs bradley road stats. its not even really close. bradley shoots 41.3% from the field, and 28% from 3...indiana st is at about 45% and 36.7% from 3. ind st also has better def % at home. rebounding is also in indiana st favor, and to:asst ration isn't even close 15:11.9.....bradley's hot start in the valley is clouding the judgment between these 2 teams. to say on paper bradley is clearly the play is simply untrue. bradley just looks prettier than indiana st

hah, yeah can't quite agree today. I just meant if you look at it with a square approach (looking at RPI, overall record, conference play, etc) then Bradley would be very appealing to Joe Couch Potato, which is why the public is backing them. I'm not convinced though, i'm a big believer in your theory of teams playing well in home conference games they know they need. This is where short chalk, or small dog teams usually hit very well. ISU clearly falls into these categories tonight.
 

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No Ill +6

A couple things quick here. No Ill seems to have responded nicely after their 3 week lay off. They came back and hammered Toledo by 24. i think a couple of the guys needed this time to get their legs back. Ball St is likely to come out tonight deflated after losing their best player Anthony Newell for the season. Ball St had high hopes of contending, but without Newell they are left with virtually no scoring punch. Their leading scorer barely averages double figures, and have had trouble scoring as it is even with newell. They have been held below 55 numerous times. They will be over matched in the back court, with No Illinois Darion Anderson, and freshman shooter mike dinunno. Anderson has emerged into an all conference player and dinunno should be on the all freshman team. koswall gives them good size in the paint and will help control the glass. ball st just doesn't have enough fire power to run and hide from no ill even if the huskies don't play well. patton has stressed defense all season, especially during the long break, and their holding toledo to 51 points looked like the team is buying in. with another concentrated defensive effort i think they can win this one fairly easily. ball st will be deflated and a fresh no ill team could steal one on the road
 

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