I do think in theory pensions/SS are supposed to work. Something I've heard that nobody mentions is if you get a ton of people, you can forecast the exact average time they're going to die to the month. So nobody dies and just has tons of benefits leftover and nobody outlives their benefits. It is just a big pool which reduces variance.
Unfortunately, it hasn't unfolded like that the last few generations. Been just another way for the gov't to mess stuff up on the state and federal levels as we're now seeing. If the gov't can't even implement programs that just take the most basic actuarial analysis then it is hard to think they can do much else right.
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Donald Trump's Many Business Failures, Explained
By Kurt Eichenwald On 8/2/16 at 6:10 AM
Donald Trump was thundering about a minority group, linking its members to murderers and what he predicted would be an epic crime wave in America. His opponents raged in response—some slamming him as a racist—but Trump dismissed them as blind, ignorant of the real world.
No, this is not a scene from a recent rally in which the Republican nominee for president stoked fears of violence from immigrants or Muslims. The year was 1993, and his target was Native Americans, particularly those running casinos who, Trump was telling a congressional hearing, were sucking up to criminals.
Trump, who at the time was a major casino operator, appeared before a panel on Indian gaming with a prepared statement that was level-headed and raised regulatory concerns in a mature way. But, in his opening words, Trump announced that his written speech was boring, so he went off-script, even questioning the heritage of some Native American casino operators, saying they “don't look like Indians” and launching into a tirade about “rampant” criminal activities on reservations.
“If [Indian gaming] continues as a threat, it is my opinion that it will blow. It will blow sky high. It will be the biggest scandal ever or one of the biggest scandals since Al Capone,” Trump said. “That an Indian chief is going to tell [mobster] Joey Killer to please get off his reservation is almost unbelievable to me.”
His words were, as is so often the case, incendiary. Lawmakers, latching onto his claim to know more than law enforcement about ongoing criminal activity at Indian casinos, challenged Trump to bring his information to the FBI. One attacked Trump’s argument as the most “irresponsible testimony” he had ever heard. Connecticut Governor Lowell Weicker Jr., whom Trump had praised in his testimony, responded by calling him a “dirtbag” and a bigot; Trump immediately changed his mind about the governor, proclaiming Weicker to be a “fat slob who couldn't get elected dog catcher in Connecticut.”
For opponents of Trump’s presidential run, this contretemps about American Indians might seem like a distant but familiar echo of the racism charges that have dogged his campaign, including his repeated taunting of Senator Elizabeth Warren as “Pocahontas” because she claims native ancestry. But, in this case, there was more to it than that: Trump, through his offensive tantrum, was throwing away financial opportunities, yet another reminder that, for all his boasting of his acumen and flaunting of his wealth, the self-proclaimed billionaire has often been a lousy businessman.
As Trump was denigrating Native Americans before Congress, other casino magnates were striking management agreements with them. Trump knew the business was there even when he was testifying; despite denying under oath that he had ever tried to arrange deals with Indian casinos, he had done just that a few months earlier, according to an affidavit from Richard Milanovich, the official from the Agua Caliente Band of Cahuilla Indians who met with Trump, letters from the Trump Organization and phone records. The deal for the Agua Caliente casino instead went to Caesars World. (In 2000, Trump won a contract to manage the casino for the Twenty-Nine Palms Band of Mission Indians, but after Trump Hotels and Casino Resorts declared bankruptcy in 2004, the tribe paid Trump $6 million to go away.) And in his purposeless, false and inflammatory statements before Congress, Trump alienated politicians from around the country, including some who had the power to influence construction contracts—problems that could have been avoided if he had simply read his prepared speech rather than ad-libbing.
Lost contracts, bankruptcies, defaults, deceptions and indifference to investors—Trump’s business career is a long, long list of such troubles, according to regulatory, corporate and court records, as well as sworn testimony and government investigative reports. Call it the art of the bad deal, one created by the arrogance and recklessness of a businessman whose main talent is self-promotion.
He is also pretty good at self-deception, and plain old deception. Trump is willing to claim success even when it is not there, according to his own statements. “I’m just telling you, you wouldn’t say that you're failing,” he said in a 2007 deposition when asked to explain why he would give an upbeat assessment of his business even if it was in trouble. “If somebody said, ‘How you doing?’ you're going to say you're doing good.” Perhaps such dissembling is fine in polite cocktail party conversation, but in the business world it’s called lying.
And while Trump is quick to boast that his purported billions prove his business acumen, his net worth is almost unknowable given the loose standards and numerous outright misrepresentations he has made over the years. In that 2007 deposition, Trump said he based estimates of his net worth at times on “psychology” and “my own feelings.” But those feelings are often wrong—in 2004, he presented unaudited financials to Deutsche Bank while seeking a loan, claiming he was worth $3.5 billion. The bank concluded Trump was, to say the least, puffing; it put his net worth at $788 million, records show. (Trump personally guaranteed $40 million of the loan to his company, so Deutsche coughed up the money. He later defaulted on that commitment.)
Trump’s many misrepresentations of his successes and his failures matter—a lot. As a man who has never held so much as a city council seat, there is little voters can examine to determine if he is competent to hold office. He has no voting record and presents few details about specific policies. Instead, he sells himself as qualified to run the country because he is a businessman who knows how to get things done, and his financial dealings are the only part of his background available to assess his competence to lead the country. And while Trump has had a few successes in business, most of his ventures have been disasters.
When he was ready for college, Trump wanted to be a movie producer, perhaps the first sign that he was far more interested in the glitz of business than the nuts and bolts. He applied to the University of Southern California to pursue a film career, but when that didn’t work out, he attended Fordham University; two years later, he transferred to the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania and got a degree in economics.
Trump boasted when he announced his candidacy last year that he had made his money “the old-fashioned way,” but he is no Bill Gates or Michael Bloomberg, self-made billionaires who were mavericks, innovators in their fields. Instead, the Republican nominee’s wealth is Daddy-made. Almost all of his best-known successes are attributable to family ties or money given to him by his father.
The son of wealthy developer Fred Trump, he went to work for his father’s real estate business immediately after graduating from Wharton and found some success by taking advantage of his father’s riches and close ties to the power brokers in the New York Democratic Party, particularly his decades-long friend Abe Beame, the former mayor of the city.
Even with those advantages, a few of Trump’s initial deals for his father were busts, based on the profits. His first project was revitalizing the Swifton Village apartment complex in Cleveland, which his father had purchased for $5.7 million in 1962. After Trump finished his work, they sold the complex for $6.75 million, which, while appearing to be a small return, was a loss; in constant dollars, the apartment buildings would have had to sell for $7.9 million to have earned an actual profit. Still, Trump happily boasted about his supposed success with Swifton Village and about his surging personal wealth.
He already ached to be part of the Manhattan elite rather than just be known as the son of a Brooklyn developer. So, in 1970, he took another shot at joining the entertainment business by investing $70,000, to snag a co-producer’s credit for a Broadway comedy called Paris Is Out! Once again, Trump failed; the play bombed, closing after just 96 performances.
The next year, he moved to Manhattan from the outer boroughs, still largely dependent on Daddy. In 1972, Trump’s father brought him into a limited partnership that developed and owned a senior citizen apartment complex in East Orange, New Jersey. Fred Trump owned 75 percent, but two years later shrunk his ownership to 27 percent by turning over the rest of his stake to two entities controlled by his son. Another two years passed, and then Fred Trump named him the beneficiary of a $1 million trust that provided him with $1.3 million in income (2015 dollars) over the next five years. In 1978, he boosted his son’s fortunes again, hiring him as a consultant to help sell his ownership interest in a real estate partnership to the Grandcor Company and Port Electric Supply Corp. The deal was enormously lucrative for Donald Trump, particularly since it just fell into his lap thanks to his family. Under the deal, Grandcor agreed to pay him an additional $190,000, while Port Electric kicked in $228,500. (The payments were made over several years, but the value in present-day dollars on the final sum he received is $10.4 million.)
Despite having no real success of his own, by the late 1970s, Trump was swaggering through Manhattan, gaining a reputation as a crass self-promoter. He hung out in the fancy nightspot Le Club, where he was chums with prominent New Yorkers like Roy Cohn, the one-time aide to Senator Joe McCarthy who was one of the city’s most feared and politically connected attorneys. Cohn became one of the developer’s lifelong mentors, encouraging the pugilistic personality that showed itself all the way back in second grade, when Trump punched his music teacher.
Soon Trump gained the public recognition he craved. Through a wholly owned corporation called Wembly Realty, Trump struck a partnership with a subsidiary of Hyatt Hotels. That partnership, Regency Lexington, purchased the struggling Commodore Hotel for redevelopment into the Grand Hyatt New York, a deal Trump crowed about when he announced he was running for president.
He failed to mention that this deal was once again largely attributable to Daddy, who co-guaranteed with Hyatt a construction loan for $70 million and arranged a credit line for his boy with Chase Manhattan Bank. The credit line was a favor to the Trump family, which had brought huge profits to the bank; according to regulatory records, the revolving loan was set up without even requiring a written agreement. Topping off the freebies and special deals that flowed Trump’s way, the city tossed in a 40-year tax abatement. Trump’s “success” with the Hyatt was simply the result of money from his dad, his dad’s bank, Hyatt and the taxpayers of New York City.
Despite the outward signs of success, Trump’s personal finances were a disaster. In 1978, the year his father set up that sweet credit line at Chase, Donald’s tax returns showed personal losses of $406,386—$1.5 million in present-day dollars. Things grew worse in 1979, when he reported an income of negative $3.4 million, $11.2 million in constant dollars. All of this traced back to big losses in three real estate partnerships and interest he owed Chase. With Trump sucking wind and rapidly drawing down his line of credit, he turned again to Daddy, who in 1980 agreed to lend him $7.5 million.
All of these names and numbers can grow confusing for voters with little exposure to the business world. So to sum it all up, Trump is rich because he was born rich—and without his father repeatedly bailing him out, he would have likely filed for personal bankruptcy before he was 35.
Rolling Snake Eyes
As his personal finances were falling apart, Trump got a big idea for how to make money: casinos.
In early 1980, he received a phone call from Alan Lapidus, an architect who was a friend of Fred Trump. Lapidus gave Donald Trump a hot tip—there was a parcel of land available in Atlantic City that was zoned for use by a casino hotel. Gaming had been legalized in New Jersey in 1978, and casinos in Atlantic City were already reporting big business. At the time, Trump was deep into plans to turn Bonwit Teller’s flagship department store into Trump Tower—a transformation achieved with the help of Roy Cohn, who fought in the courts to win Trump a huge tax abatement. Still, Trump jumped on the casino idea and had a lawyer reach out to the owners to negotiate a lease deal.
In August 1980, the Trump Plaza Corporation was incorporated in New Jersey, and nine months later it applied for a casino license. Trump wanted to build a 39-story, 612-room hotel and casino, but the banks refused to finance his adventure. So, instead, he struck a partnership with Harrah’s Entertainment in which the global gaming company and subsidiary of Holiday Inn Inc. put up all the money in exchange for Trump developing the property. In 1984, Harrah’s at Trump Plaza opened, and Trump seethed. He had wanted his name to be the marquee brand, even though Harrah’s had an international reputation in casinos and he had none. He even delayed building a garage because his name was not being used prominently enough in the marketing.
According to court papers, Harrah’s spent $9.3 million promoting the Trump name, giving the New York developer a reputation in the casino business he’d never had before. And Harrah’s quickly learned the price—now, with Trump able to argue he knew casinos, financing opportunities that did not exist before opened up, and he was able to use Harrah’s promotion of him as a lever against the entertainment company. Soon after that first casino opened, Trump took advantage of his new credibility with financial backers interested in the gaming business to purchase the nearly completed Hilton Atlantic City Hotel for just $320 million; he renamed it Trump Castle. The business plan was ludicrous: Trump had not only doubled down his bet on Atlantic City casinos but was now operating two businesses in direct competition with each other. When Trump Castle opened in 1985, Harrah’s decided to ditch Trump and sold its interest in their joint venture to him for $220 million.
Still, he wanted more in Atlantic City—specifically, the Taj Mahal, the largest casino complex ever, which Resorts International was building. This made the Casino Control Commission nervous because it could have meant that the financial security of Atlantic City would be riding on the back of one man. But Trump brushed those concerns aside at a February 1988 licensing hearing—after all, his argument went, he was Donald Trump. He would contain costs, he said, because banks would be practically throwing money at him, and at prime rates. He would be on a solid financial foundation because the banks loved him so much, unlike lots of other companies and casinos that used below-investment-grade, high-interest junk bonds for their financing. “I’m talking about banking institutions, not these junk bonds, which are ridiculous,” he testified.
But Trump’s braggadocio proved empty. No financial institution gave him anything. Instead, he financed the deal with $675 million in junk bonds, agreeing to pay an astonishing 14 percent interest, about 50 percent more than he had projected. That pushed Trump’s total debt for his three casinos to $1.2 billion. For the renamed Trump Taj Mahal to break even, it would have to pull in as much as $1.3 million a day in revenue, more than any casino ever.
Disaster hit fast. As had been predicted by some Wall Street analysts, Trump’s voracious appetite cannibalized his other casinos—it was as if Trump had tipped the Atlantic City boardwalk and slid all his customers at the Trump Castle and Trump Plaza down to the Taj. Revenues for the two smaller casinos plummeted a combined $58 million that first year.
Meanwhile, another Trump disaster was brewing. Eastern Air Lines, which had been struggling, put its northeastern air shuttle up for sale. Trump persuaded the banks to lend him $380 million to purchase the route, and in June 1989 the Trump Shuttle began flying.
Trump introduced the airline with his usual style—by insulting the competition. At an elegant event at Logan Airport in Boston, Trump took the stage and suggested that the other airline with a northeastern shuttle, Pan Am, flew unsafe planes. Pan Am didn’t have enough cash, he said, and so it couldn’t spend as much as the Trump Shuttle on maintenance. “I’m not criticizing Pan Am,” Trump told the assembled crowd. “I’m just speaking facts.” But Trump offered no proof, and others in the airline industry seethed; talking about possible crashes was bad for everyone’s business.
He promised to transform his shuttle into a luxury service—bathroom fixtures were colored gold, and the plane interiors were decked out with mahogany veneer. He was spending $1 million to update each of the planes, which were individually worth only $4 million. With those changes, he boasted, he would increase the shuttle’s market share from 55 to 75 percent.
But just like with casinos, Trump was in a business he knew nothing about. Customers on a one-hour flight from Washington to New York didn’t want luxury; they wanted reliability and competitive prices.
Trump Shuttle never turned a profit. But it didn’t have much of a chance; even as he was preening about his successes, Trump’s businesses were falling apart and would soon bring the shuttle crashing down with them.
About 10 years ago, Trump moved away from building things to just selling his name, which was slapped on everything from condos to meats sold through the Sharper Image catalog. Mark Peterson/Redux
Bragging About How Much He Owes
At 1:40 p.m. on October 10, 1989, the four-blade rotor and tail rotor broke off of a helicopter flying above the pine woodlands near Forked River, New Jersey. The craft plunged 2,800 feet to the ground, killing all five passengers. Among them were three of Trump’s top casino executives.
With the best managers of his casinos dead, Trump for the first time took responsibility for running the day-to-day operations in Atlantic City. His mercurial and belligerent style made a quick impact—some top executives walked, unwilling to put up with his eccentricities, while Trump booted others. The casinos were struggling so badly that Trump was sweating whether a few big winners might pull him under. He once hovered over a baccarat table at the Plaza, anxiously watching a Tokyo real estate tycoon who had won big at the casino in the past; executives at the casino were humiliated, since Trump was signaling that he was frightened customers might win. (The Japanese tycoon lost that night.) By early 1990, as financial prospects at the casinos worsened, Trump began badmouthing the executives who had died, laying blame on them, although the cause of his problems was the precarious, debt-laden business structure he had built.
By June 1990, Trump was on the verge of missing a $43 million interest payment to the investors in the Taj’s junk bonds. Facing ruin, he met with his bankers, who had almost no recourse—they had been as reckless as Trump. By lending him billions—with loans for his real estate, his casinos, his airline and other businesses—they could fail if Trump went down. So the banks agreed to lend him tens of millions more in exchange for Trump temporarily ceding control over his multibillion-dollar empire and accepting a budget of $450,000 a month for personal expenditures. In August, New Jersey regulators prepared a report totaling Trump’s debt at $3.4 billion, writing that “a complete financial collapse of the Trump Organization was not out of the question.”
In September, Trump informed his bankers that he would not be paying the $1.1 million in interest due and asked that they defer $245 million of future loan payments. Once again, the banks could do little but agree. The shuttle business was put up for sale, as was his $29 million yacht, the Trump Princess. (In 1992, Trump defaulted on his debt for the shuttle and turned it over to his creditor banks.)
By December, Trump was on the verge of missing an interest payment on the debt of Trump Castle, and there was no room left to maneuver with the banks this time. So, just as he had in the past, Trump turned to Dad for help, according to New Jersey state regulatory records. On December 17, 1990, Fred Trump handed a certified check for $3.35 million payable to the Trump Castle to his attorney, Howard Snyder. Snyder traveled to the Castle and opened an account in the name of Fred Trump. The check was deposited into that account and a blackjack dealer paid out $3.35 million to Snyder in gray $5,000 chips. Snyder put the chips in a small case and left; no gambling took place. The next day, a similar “loan” was made—except by wire transfer rather than by check—for an additional $150,000. This surreptitious, and unreported, loan allowed Donald Trump to make that interest payment. (The Castle later settled charges by the Casino Control Commission of violations from this escapade and paid a $65,000 fine.)
It didn’t matter—Trump’s casino empire was doomed. A little more than a year after the opening of the Taj, that casino was in bankruptcy court, and was soon followed there by the Plaza and the Castle. Under the reorganization, Trump turned over half his interest in the businesses in exchange for lower rates of interest, as well as a deferral of payments and an agreement to wait at least five years before pursuing Trump for the personal guarantees he had made on some of the debt. The total debt remained huge, weighing down the reorganized company for years. In 2004, Trump Hotels & Casino Resorts—the new name for Trump’s casino holdings—filed for bankruptcy, and Trump was forced to relinquish his post as chief executive. The name of the company was then changed to Trump Entertainment Resorts; it filed for bankruptcy in 2009, four days after Trump resigned from the board.
In his books and public statements, Trump holds up this bankruptcy as yet more proof of his business genius; after all, his logic goes, he climbed out of a hole so deep few others could have done it. He even brags now about how deep that hole was. Trump falsely claimed in two of his books that he owed $9.2 billion, rather than the actual number, $3.4 billion, making his recovery seem far more impressive. (When challenged on the misrepresentation during a 2007 deposition, Trump blamed the error on Meredith McIver, a longtime employee who helped write that book. Trump testified that he recognized the mistake shortly after the first book mentioning it was published; he never explained why he allowed it to appear again in the paperback edition and even in his next book. McIver went on to garner some national recognition as a Trump scapegoat—nine years later, when Trump’s wife, Melania, delivered a speech at the Republican National Convention that was partially plagiarized from Michelle Obama, the campaign blamed McIver. But despite all this supposed sloppiness, Trump has never directed his trademark phrase “You’re fired!” at this loyal employee.)
Huge corporate failures are the stuff of headlines, but Trump’s mistakes in business have included plenty of small deals as well. In 2008, he defaulted on a $640 million construction loan for Trump International Hotel & Tower in Chicago, and the primary lender, Deutsche Bank, sued him. Trump countersued, howling that the bank had damaged his reputation. In a snarky court reply, Deutsche Bank said, “Trump is no stranger to overdue debt.” (The suit was ultimately resolved, with Deutsche Bank extending the terms of the loan; another lender, Fortress Investment Group, had to suck up losses from its foray into Trump’s Chicago project.)
Trump has also based huge projects on temporary business trends. For example, for a few years during the George W. Bush administration, wealthy expatriates from around the Middle East flocked to Dubai. In response, Trump launched work on a 62-story luxury hotel and apartment complex on an artificial island shaped like a palm tree. But, as was predictable from the start, there were only so many rich people willing to travel to the United Arab Emirates, so the flood of wealthy foreigners into the country slowed. The Trump Organization was forced to walk away from the project, flushing its investments in it.
Beginning in 2006, Trump decided to take a new direction and basically cut back on building in favor of selling his name. This led to what might be called his nonsense deals, with Trump slapping his name on everything but the sidewalk, hoping people would buy products just because of his brand.
Trump hosted a glitzy event in 2006 touting Trump Mortgage, then proclaimed he had nothing to do with managing the firm when it collapsed 18 months later. (Trump tried again, rechristening the failed entity as Trump Financial. It also failed.) That same year, he opened GoTrump.com, an online travel service that never amounted to more than a vanity site; the URL now sends searchers straight to the Trump campaign website. Also in 2006, Trump unveiled Trump Vodka, predicting that the T&T (Trump and Tonic) would become the most requested drink in America (he also marketed it to his friends in Russia, land of some of the world’s greatest vodkas); within a few years, the company closed because of poor sales. In 2007, Trump Steaks arrived. After two months of being primarily available for sale at Sharper Image, that endeavor ended; the head of Sharper Image said barely any of the steaks sold.
Amusing as those fiascos are for those of us who didn’t lose money on them, the most painful debacles to witness were many involving licensing agreements Trump sold to people in fields related to real estate. There is the now-infamous Trump University, where students who paid hefty fees were supposed to learn how to make fortunes in that industry by being trained by experts handpicked by Trump; many students have sued, saying the enterprise was a scam in which Trump allowed his name to be used but had nothing else to do with it, despite his claims to the contrary in the marketing for the “school.” The litigation has already revealed plenty of evidence that the endeavor was a scam. Particularly damning was the testimony of former employee Ronald Schnackenberg, who recalled being chastised by Trump University officials for failing to push a near-destitute couple into paying $35,000 for classes by using their disability income and a home equity loan.
Around the country, buyers were led to believe they were purchasing apartments in buildings overseen by Trump, although his only involvement in many cases was getting paid for the use of his brand. For example, in 2009, Trump and a developer named Jorge Pérez unveiled plans for Trump Hollywood, a 40-story oceanfront condominium that they boasted would sell at premium prices and feature such luxuries as Italian cabinetry. But with the entire real estate market imploding, condo buyers were looking for bargains, and sales were minuscule. In 2010, lenders foreclosed on the $355 million project. Even though Trump’s name was listed on the condominium’s website as the developer, he immediately distanced himself from the project, saying he had only licensed his name.
A similarly sordid tale unfolded for Trump Ocean Resort Baja Mexico, a 525-unit luxury vacation home complex that Trump proclaimed was going to be “very, very special.” His name and image were all over the property, and he even personally appeared in the marketing video discussing how investors would be “following” him if they bought into the building. Scores of buyers ponied up deposits in 2006, but by 2009 the project was still just a hole in the ground. That year, the developers notified condo buyers their $32 million in deposits had been spent, no bank financing could be obtained, and they were walking away from the project. Scores of lawsuits claimed the buyers were deceived into believing Trump was the developer. Trump walked away from the deal, saying that if the condo buyers had any questions, they needed to contact the developer—and that wasn’t him, contrary to what the marketing material implied.
The same story has played out again and again. In Fort Lauderdale, Florida, people who thought they were buying into a Trump property lost their deposits of at least $100,000, with Trump saying it was not his responsibility because he had only licensed his name.
Investors in another failed Floridian property, Trump Tower Tampa, put up millions in the project in 2005 believing the building was being constructed by him. Instead, they discovered it was all a sham in 2007, inadvertently from Trump, when he sued the builder for failing to pay his license fees. The investors lost their money, and finally got to hear Trump respond to allegations that he had defrauded them when they sued him. In a deposition, lawyers for the Tampa buyers asked him if he would be responsible for any shoddy construction; Trump responded that he had “no liability” because it was only a name-licensing deal. As for the investors, some of whom surrendered their life savings for what they thought was a chance to live in a Trump property, Trump said they at least dodged the collapse of the real estate market by not buying the apartments earlier.
“They were better off losing their deposit,” he said.
So said the man who now proclaims that Americans can trust him, that he cares only about their needs and their country, that he is on the side of the little guy.
[h=6]- AUGUST 03, 2016 -[/h][h=1]8,000 IN DAYTONA BEACH CHEER TRUMP, JEER ‘CROOKED HILLARY’[/h]Daytona Beach News Journal
Donald Trump addressed rival Hillary Clinton and President Obama on Wednesday in front of a cheering crowd of 8,000 supporters.
He condemned both for the recent news alleging the United States paid $400 million ransom for the release of American prisoners. He also criticized the heavily opposed Iranian Nuclear deal, citing it as yet another example of foreign policy failure from President Obama and Hillary Clinton.
Donald Trump addressed rival Hillary Clinton and President Obama on Wednesday in front of a cheering crowd of 8,000 supporters.
He condemned both for the recent news alleging the United States paid $400 million ransom for the release of American prisoners. He also criticized the heavily opposed Iranian Nuclear deal, citing it as yet another example of foreign policy failure from President Obama and Hillary Clinton.
[h=6]AUGUST 03, 2016 -[/h][h=1]TRUMP: ONCE I’M PRESIDENT, POLICE OFFICERS WILL NO LONGER BE SHOT ON THE JOB[/h]The Washington Post
Donald Trump spoke to thousands of supporters in Florida about the recent police shootings and how he is going to bring law and order back to our country.
During his impassioned speech he stated, "And we're going to have law and order, and we're going to respect our police, because you have to respect our police. We're not going to shoot our police. We're not shooting our police. It's never been so dangerous to be a policeman or woman. It's never been so dangerous."
Donald Trump spoke to thousands of supporters in Florida about the recent police shootings and how he is going to bring law and order back to our country.
During his impassioned speech he stated, "And we're going to have law and order, and we're going to respect our police, because you have to respect our police. We're not going to shoot our police. We're not shooting our police. It's never been so dangerous to be a policeman or woman. It's never been so dangerous."
An A rated Poll on 538: Not included in the RCP Average Yet.
Clinton surges to big lead in McClatchy-Marist poll
Polling numbers can range drastically from poll to poll, sometimes showing one presidential contender far ahead of the other while another shows the two neck-and-neck. How do you know what to believe? Natalie Fertig McClatchy
Clinton surges to big lead in McClatchy-Marist poll
Polling numbers can range drastically from poll to poll, sometimes showing one presidential contender far ahead of the other while another shows the two neck-and-neck. How do you know what to believe? Natalie Fertig McClatchy
BY DAVID LIGHTMAN AND LESLEY CLARK
McClatchy Washington Bureau
WASHINGTON Hillary Clinton has surged to a 15-point lead over reeling, gaffe-plagued Donald Trump, according to a new McClatchy-Marist poll.
Clinton made strong gains with two constituencies crucial to a Republican victory – whites and men — while scoring important gains among fellow Democrats, the poll found.
Clinton not only went up, but Trump went down. Clinton now has a 48-33 lead, a huge turnaround from her narrow 42-39 advantage last month.
The findings are particularly significant because the poll was taken after both political conventions ended, and as Trump engaged in a war of words with the parents of Army Capt. Humayun Khan, killed in the Iraq War 12 years ago.
COMPLETE DATA FOR THE MCCLATCHY-MARIST POLL
“This is coming off the Democratic convention, where a bounce is expected,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion in New York, which conducted the nationwide survey.
“What you don’t want is to have the worst week of your campaign” – a characterization many analysts use to describe Trump’s recent days.
Other polls have shown Clinton in the lead, though Marist’s is the largest so far.
Among poll respondents, Clinton was seen more often as a potential president. Fifty-three percent said they would find her acceptable; 39 percent felt that way about Trump.
Francis Duffy, 76, an Upper Darby, Penn., Republican said she's voting for Clinton because she finds Trump scary. "I just don’t feel that Donald Trump is qualified, I think he's a loosen cannon," she said.
In a four way race, Clinton retains her lead. She gets 45 percent to Trump’s 31 percent.Libertarian Gary Johnson has 10 percent and the Green Party’s Jill Stein has 6 percent.
The new survey showed Clinton has cut sharply into the Republican nominee’s advantages in every ethnic and racial group.
After a bitter battle with rival Bernie Sanders, the independent Vermont senator whose supporters fought all the way to the convention, she’s solidified her strength among Democrats, 90 percent of whom now back her, up from 83 percent last month.
Jorge Vietes, 78, a native of Argentina who lives in Stockton, Calif., sided with Sanders in the primary, and is not swayed by Trump's efforts to woo Sanders' voters.
"I have no choice but to go for Clinton," said Vietes, an independent voter. "Trump is kind of a crazy guy.”
Trump gets the nod from just 79 percent of Republicans, down from 85 percent last month. Some top GOP officials have put distance between themselves and the billionaire businessman, with some saying they’ll back Clinton.
Men had been the bedrock of Trump support. Last month, he was up by 14 percentage points among men; he’s now down 8.
Clinton remains strong with women, as she’s up 20.
Janelle Pierre-Louis, 19, an independent voter and college student in Port St. Lucie, Fla., said she's voting for Clinton because she can't see voting for Trump.
"The way he represents himself is just not favorable," she said. "And he wants to build a wall and target immigrants? I'm not sure why he wants to cut off immigrants."
Trump collapsed almost everywhere that he’d built decent support. Even among white voters, which favored Republican White House candidates in recent elections, Trump was lagging, ahead of Clinton, but only just barely, 41-39.
Paul House of Chiefland, Fla., is an independent voter, but said he's backing Trump. Clinton "just seems so dishonest and has had so many things she's been two faced about. We've got more than enough of that in our government."
But John Hawkins, of Gainesville, Fla., was more of a Sanders vote. He’s for Clinton, and said Trump never had a chance with him.
“I think the guy is crazy. He gets a deferment status out of Vietnam and he starts something with a military family? I just don’t see anything presidential about him,” Hawkins said.
That’s a troubling finding for a Republican. 2012 Republican nominee Mitt Romney won whites by 20 points, and still lost the election. In 2008, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., won the white vote by 12 points and lost.
Clinton wins moderates, 50-27 percent. She is far ahead with black voters, 93-2 percent, and with Latinos, 55-26 percent.
More encouraging to Clinton, 57 percent of her backers say their vote is for her, while 40 percent say it’s largely an anti-Trump vote.
Among the no-Trump voters is Cassandra Crockett, 66, a retired registered nurse from Winston-Salem, N.C., who says she's "really not that fond" of Clinton.
Trump, though, is “a racist and he starts trouble everywhere he goes," she said. She was disturbed by Trump's call for Russia to hack Clinton's email.
"That's just not unacceptable to invite a foreign country into our election," she said. "I don’t trust her, but at least she can represent us. I can't see him meeting with any foreign leaders."
Most of Trump’s backers – 57 percent – say their vote is against Clinton, while 36 percent called it a pro-Trump decision.
Wayne Jones, a Canton Ohio, retiree, says he's voting for Trump, but is not particularly a fan and doesn't believe Trump actually wants to become president.
"This is the biggest scam ever pulled in an election," the independent voter said. "No one with his education, his smarts, would go out and shoot himself in the foot everyday if he wanted to be president."
On issue after issue, Clinton ranked ahead of Trump. She’s up by 8 when asked who can best handle the war on terror. She’s ahead 21 on immigration, 14 on gun violence, 14 on trade and 4 on creating jobs, which had been one of Trump’s strengths.
David Lightman: 202-383-6101, @lightmandavid
Lesley Clark: 202-383-6054, @lesleyclark
HOW THE SURVEY WAS CONDUCTED
This survey of 1,132 adults was conducted August 1
sponsored and funded in partnership with McClatchy News Service. Adults 18 years of age and older
residing in the contiguous United States were contacted on landline or mobile numbers and interviewed
in English by telephone using live interviewers. Landline telephone numbers were randomly selected
based upon a list of telephone exchanges from throughout the nation from ASDE Survey Sampler, Inc.
The exchanges were selected to ensure that each region was represented in proportion to its population.
Respondents in the household were randomly selected by first asking for the youngest male. This
landline sample was combined with respondents reached through random dialing of cell phone numbers
from Survey Sampling International. After the interviews were completed, the two samples were
combined and balanced to reflect the 2013 American Community Survey 1-year estimates for age,
gender, income, race, and region. Results are statistically significant within ±2.9 percentage points.
There are 983 registered voters. The results for this subset are statistically significant within ±3.1
percentage points. The error margin was not adjusted for sample weights and increases for cross-
tabulations.
Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article93763582.html#storylink=cpy
McClatchy Washington Bureau
WASHINGTON Hillary Clinton has surged to a 15-point lead over reeling, gaffe-plagued Donald Trump, according to a new McClatchy-Marist poll.
Clinton made strong gains with two constituencies crucial to a Republican victory – whites and men — while scoring important gains among fellow Democrats, the poll found.
Clinton not only went up, but Trump went down. Clinton now has a 48-33 lead, a huge turnaround from her narrow 42-39 advantage last month.
The findings are particularly significant because the poll was taken after both political conventions ended, and as Trump engaged in a war of words with the parents of Army Capt. Humayun Khan, killed in the Iraq War 12 years ago.
COMPLETE DATA FOR THE MCCLATCHY-MARIST POLL
“This is coming off the Democratic convention, where a bounce is expected,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion in New York, which conducted the nationwide survey.
“What you don’t want is to have the worst week of your campaign” – a characterization many analysts use to describe Trump’s recent days.
Other polls have shown Clinton in the lead, though Marist’s is the largest so far.
Among poll respondents, Clinton was seen more often as a potential president. Fifty-three percent said they would find her acceptable; 39 percent felt that way about Trump.
Francis Duffy, 76, an Upper Darby, Penn., Republican said she's voting for Clinton because she finds Trump scary. "I just don’t feel that Donald Trump is qualified, I think he's a loosen cannon," she said.
In a four way race, Clinton retains her lead. She gets 45 percent to Trump’s 31 percent.Libertarian Gary Johnson has 10 percent and the Green Party’s Jill Stein has 6 percent.
The new survey showed Clinton has cut sharply into the Republican nominee’s advantages in every ethnic and racial group.
After a bitter battle with rival Bernie Sanders, the independent Vermont senator whose supporters fought all the way to the convention, she’s solidified her strength among Democrats, 90 percent of whom now back her, up from 83 percent last month.
Jorge Vietes, 78, a native of Argentina who lives in Stockton, Calif., sided with Sanders in the primary, and is not swayed by Trump's efforts to woo Sanders' voters.
"I have no choice but to go for Clinton," said Vietes, an independent voter. "Trump is kind of a crazy guy.”
Trump gets the nod from just 79 percent of Republicans, down from 85 percent last month. Some top GOP officials have put distance between themselves and the billionaire businessman, with some saying they’ll back Clinton.
Men had been the bedrock of Trump support. Last month, he was up by 14 percentage points among men; he’s now down 8.
Clinton remains strong with women, as she’s up 20.
Janelle Pierre-Louis, 19, an independent voter and college student in Port St. Lucie, Fla., said she's voting for Clinton because she can't see voting for Trump.
"The way he represents himself is just not favorable," she said. "And he wants to build a wall and target immigrants? I'm not sure why he wants to cut off immigrants."
Trump collapsed almost everywhere that he’d built decent support. Even among white voters, which favored Republican White House candidates in recent elections, Trump was lagging, ahead of Clinton, but only just barely, 41-39.
Paul House of Chiefland, Fla., is an independent voter, but said he's backing Trump. Clinton "just seems so dishonest and has had so many things she's been two faced about. We've got more than enough of that in our government."
But John Hawkins, of Gainesville, Fla., was more of a Sanders vote. He’s for Clinton, and said Trump never had a chance with him.
“I think the guy is crazy. He gets a deferment status out of Vietnam and he starts something with a military family? I just don’t see anything presidential about him,” Hawkins said.
That’s a troubling finding for a Republican. 2012 Republican nominee Mitt Romney won whites by 20 points, and still lost the election. In 2008, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., won the white vote by 12 points and lost.
Clinton wins moderates, 50-27 percent. She is far ahead with black voters, 93-2 percent, and with Latinos, 55-26 percent.
More encouraging to Clinton, 57 percent of her backers say their vote is for her, while 40 percent say it’s largely an anti-Trump vote.
Among the no-Trump voters is Cassandra Crockett, 66, a retired registered nurse from Winston-Salem, N.C., who says she's "really not that fond" of Clinton.
Trump, though, is “a racist and he starts trouble everywhere he goes," she said. She was disturbed by Trump's call for Russia to hack Clinton's email.
"That's just not unacceptable to invite a foreign country into our election," she said. "I don’t trust her, but at least she can represent us. I can't see him meeting with any foreign leaders."
Most of Trump’s backers – 57 percent – say their vote is against Clinton, while 36 percent called it a pro-Trump decision.
Wayne Jones, a Canton Ohio, retiree, says he's voting for Trump, but is not particularly a fan and doesn't believe Trump actually wants to become president.
"This is the biggest scam ever pulled in an election," the independent voter said. "No one with his education, his smarts, would go out and shoot himself in the foot everyday if he wanted to be president."
On issue after issue, Clinton ranked ahead of Trump. She’s up by 8 when asked who can best handle the war on terror. She’s ahead 21 on immigration, 14 on gun violence, 14 on trade and 4 on creating jobs, which had been one of Trump’s strengths.
David Lightman: 202-383-6101, @lightmandavid
Lesley Clark: 202-383-6054, @lesleyclark
HOW THE SURVEY WAS CONDUCTED
This survey of 1,132 adults was conducted August 1
sponsored and funded in partnership with McClatchy News Service. Adults 18 years of age and older
residing in the contiguous United States were contacted on landline or mobile numbers and interviewed
in English by telephone using live interviewers. Landline telephone numbers were randomly selected
based upon a list of telephone exchanges from throughout the nation from ASDE Survey Sampler, Inc.
The exchanges were selected to ensure that each region was represented in proportion to its population.
Respondents in the household were randomly selected by first asking for the youngest male. This
landline sample was combined with respondents reached through random dialing of cell phone numbers
from Survey Sampling International. After the interviews were completed, the two samples were
combined and balanced to reflect the 2013 American Community Survey 1-year estimates for age,
gender, income, race, and region. Results are statistically significant within ±2.9 percentage points.
There are 983 registered voters. The results for this subset are statistically significant within ±3.1
percentage points. The error margin was not adjusted for sample weights and increases for cross-
tabulations.
Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article93763582.html#storylink=cpy
THAT's A Fucking Bounce. And the Idiot's Engaging Mr Khan certainly contributed:
[h=3]Polling Data[/h]
[h=3]Polling Data[/h]
| Poll | Date | Sample | MoE | Clinton (D) | Trump (R) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCP Average | 7/28 - 8/3 | -- | -- | 47.4 | 40.6 | Clinton +6.8 |
| NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl | 7/31 - 8/3 | 800 RV | 3.5 | 47 | 38 | Clinton +9 |
| McClatchy/Marist | 8/1 - 8/3 | 983 RV | 3.1 | 48 | 33 | Clinton +15 |
| FOX News | 7/31 - 8/2 | 1022 RV | 3.0 | 49 | 39 | Clinton +10 |
| Reuters/Ipsos | 7/30 - 8/3 | 1072 LV | 3.5 | 43 | 39 | Clinton +4 |
| Economist/YouGov | 7/30 - 8/1 | 933 RV | 4.1 | 46 | 43 | Clinton +3 |
| LA Times/USC | 7/28 - 8/3 | 2175 LV | -- | 45 | 44 | Clinton +1 |
| CBS News | 7/29 - 7/31 | 1131 RV | 3.0 | 47 | 41 | Clinton +6 |
| CNN/ORC | 7/29 - 7/31 | 894 RV | 3.5 | 52 | 43 | Clinton +9 |
| PPP (D) | 7/29 - 7/30 | 1276 LV | 2.7 | 50 | 45 | Clinton +5 |
Who CARES about all that, or that Repubs are trying to see how they can get him out if he "leaves(how does THAT work exactly?)," or the ever increasing number of Repubs saying, I'm OUT, or even that Rump himself is hinting that the "fix" is in-his CROWDS are AWESOME!cheersgif
ointer:
:nohead::thumbsup2:arty:Who CARES about all that, or that Repubs are trying to see how they can get him out if he "leaves(how does THAT work exactly?)," or the ever increasing number of Repubs saying, I'm OUT, or even that Rump himself is hinting that the "fix" is in-his CROWDS are AWESOME!cheersgif
I guess you didnt hear what Roadreeler said ...Trump has more Facebook likes than Clinton.
[h=6]- AUGUST 04, 2016 -[/h][h=1]TRUMP CAMPAIGN STATEMENT ON OBAMA’S REFUSAL TO ANSWER QUESTIONS ON IRANIAN TERROR, ISIS SURGE[/h]"The Obama Administration is now engaged in a cover-up of their fly-by-night untraceable cash airlift to Iran, the world's leading state sponsor of terrorism. President Obama's refusal to acknowledge that these funds will end up being used to subsidize terror is shameful - and Hillary Clinton's support for the President's actions are a national disgrace.
"The Obama-Clinton foreign policy gave rise to ISIS, made Iran flush with cash, and is now admitting vast numbers of refugees and migrants into the United States from some of the most volatile regions in the world - including more than 100,000 migrants annually from the Middle East, plus they're now on track to hit their target of 10,000 Syrian refugees this year through dangerously expediting their admission (which Hillary Clinton wants to increase by 550%).
"But none of this is surprising from an Administration that allowed its Secretary of State to threaten the country with a private email server, delete her records, and lie about it to us all."- Stephen Miller, Senior Policy Advisor
"The Obama-Clinton foreign policy gave rise to ISIS, made Iran flush with cash, and is now admitting vast numbers of refugees and migrants into the United States from some of the most volatile regions in the world - including more than 100,000 migrants annually from the Middle East, plus they're now on track to hit their target of 10,000 Syrian refugees this year through dangerously expediting their admission (which Hillary Clinton wants to increase by 550%).
"But none of this is surprising from an Administration that allowed its Secretary of State to threaten the country with a private email server, delete her records, and lie about it to us all."- Stephen Miller, Senior Policy Advisor
[h=6]- AUGUST 04, 2016 -[/h][h=1]MEDIA BIAS OF THE DAY: 8/4/2016[/h]MEDIA BIAS OF THE DAY: MSNBC INEXPLICABLY SHOWS ANTI-TRUMP HEADLINES AFTER CUTTING AWAY FROM TRUMP RALLY
For seemingly no apparent reason, MSNBC today decided to cut away from Mr. Trump’s rally in Portland, ME, and inexplicably filled the screen with anti-Trump headlines. As you can see from the screenshot below, MSNBC dropped any sense of impartiality today and went into full-blown, apoplectic attack mode. For this we award today’s Media Bias of the Day honor to MSNBC.
For seemingly no apparent reason, MSNBC today decided to cut away from Mr. Trump’s rally in Portland, ME, and inexplicably filled the screen with anti-Trump headlines. As you can see from the screenshot below, MSNBC dropped any sense of impartiality today and went into full-blown, apoplectic attack mode. For this we award today’s Media Bias of the Day honor to MSNBC.
[h=6]- AUGUST 05, 2016 -[/h][h=1]TRUMP CAMPAIGN ECONOMIC STATEMENT[/h]"We are in the middle of the single worst 'recovery' since the Great Depression. Economic growth is at 1.2 percent - the third straight quarter of less than 2 percent growth. Many workers today are earning less than they did in 1970, and household incomes are down nearly $2,000 under the Obama Administration.
We have the lowest home ownership rate in 51 years. The number of workers who work part-time because of poor business conditions increased by 5.8 percent last month. 102 million people are either outside the labor force or unemployed. 58% of young African-Americans are either outside the labor force or unemployed.
We hit a trade deficit of nearly $45 billion in the most recent month (an 8.7% increase), and nearly $800 billion last year - shipping millions of jobs overseas. Entire communities have been wiped out by offshoring.
The economy the media and the Clinton Machine is describing is an economy that doesn't exist for most Americans - it's an economy enjoyed by her donors and special interests, and one suffered through every day by millions of Americans."
- Stephen Miller, Senior Policy Advisor
We have the lowest home ownership rate in 51 years. The number of workers who work part-time because of poor business conditions increased by 5.8 percent last month. 102 million people are either outside the labor force or unemployed. 58% of young African-Americans are either outside the labor force or unemployed.
We hit a trade deficit of nearly $45 billion in the most recent month (an 8.7% increase), and nearly $800 billion last year - shipping millions of jobs overseas. Entire communities have been wiped out by offshoring.
The economy the media and the Clinton Machine is describing is an economy that doesn't exist for most Americans - it's an economy enjoyed by her donors and special interests, and one suffered through every day by millions of Americans."
- Stephen Miller, Senior Policy Advisor
[h=6]AUGUST 05, 2016 -[/h][h=1]DONALD J. TRUMP ON HILLARY CLINTON’S BAD JUDGMENT AND HER BEING UNFIT TO SERVE AS PRESIDENT[/h]“Hillary Clinton and President Obama bear the direct responsibility of destabilizing the Middle East, having let ISIS take firm hold in Iraq, Libya and Syria, not to mention their allowing Americans to be slaughtered at Benghazi. Clinton’s home email server that she lied to the American people about was a profound national security risk, and it should come as no surprise that her campaign would push out another Obama-Clinton pawn (who is not independent) to try to change the subject in a week when Clinton’s role in putting Iran on the path to nuclear weapons and this Administration being called out for sending $400 million in cash to the world’s largest state sponsor of terrorism is on every front page in the country. Hillary Clinton has bad judgment and is unfit to serve as President.” – Donald J. Trump
