Landslide alert! Trump carries 15-point lead into final days of Indiana campaigning as crucial contest could mark the beginning of the end for Ted Cruz
PUBLISHED: 16:16, 1 May 2016 | UPDATED: 23:02, 1 May 2016
Donald Trump is carrying a commanding lead into Tuesday's potentially decisive Indiana Republican primary, according to a new poll that gives him a 15-point edge.
A near majority of Hoosier Republicans, 49 per cent, back the business billionaire Trump. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is trailing with 34 per cent. Ohio Gov. John Kasich is far behind with 13 per cent.
The NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey of likely GOP voters, conducted by Marist University's Institute for Public Opinion, suggests a ringing Trump endorsement from basketball coaching legend Bobby Knight has moved the needle significantly.
A CBS News/YouGov poll published seven days ago had Trump lead hovering at just 5 percentage points. Just one week before that, Cruz led Trump by 16 points in a poll conducted by Indiana University – Purdue University Fort Wayne.
'We were doing really, really well in Indiana,' Trump told a crowd in Terre Haute on Sunday, 'but then I brought out Bobby Knight, and look at these polls! Like a rocket! It's like a rocket ship.'
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WINNING BY THIS MUCH: Donald Trump holds a 15-point lead in the winner-take-all state of Indiana just two days before a critical primary election there
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PUT ME IN, COACH: Legendary Indiana hoops coach Bobby Knight, a cult hero in Hoosier Nation, endorsed Trump loudly and repeatedly last week
YUGE LEAD: Trump has a 15-point cushion in Indiana, but even the slimmest of victories would give him a sweep of the state's 57 convention delegates
Cruz is now campaigning hard to win back some of those votes in a state he admits will be crucial if he is to make a viable case for taking the Republican nomination.
The Terxas senator told ABC: 'We are competing hard. I hope we do well here. I can tell you I'm barnstorming the state, we're in a bus with my family, we're doing everything we can to earn the votes of the men and women in this state.
'We're going the distance. We're competing the entire distance.'
Cruz said he was thankful the primary would be decided by 'Midwestern common sense' and touted his own endorsement from governor Mike Pence, who he called a 'common sense conservative.
However, Cruz stopped short of calling the state a must-win, and instead called it 'critical', leaving the door open for his candidacy to continue even if he looses overall.
Knight backed Trump in a series of rallies and broadcasts last week, praising him in colorful language as the best-prepared man to be president in the history of the United States.
Cruz's public deal with Kasich, by contrast, appears to be a dud.
Kasich agreed not to campaign in Indiana in exchange for Cruz returning the favor in Oregon and New Mexico. the two campaigns announced the strategy with simultaneous press releases a week ago.
But Kasich reneged almost immediately, telling reporters – despite Cruz's claim he had 'pulled out' of the state – that he still wanted Indiana Republicans to vote for him.
The political carve-up, designed to orchestrate one-on-one fights between Trump and his remaining rivals, arrangement earned a thumbs-down from Indianans in the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll.
Fifty-eight per cent of those surveyed said they don't like the deal, compared with just 34 per cent who do. That 24-point margin of disapproval is larger than the 15-point spread Trump enjoyed overall.
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ON LIFE SUPPORT? Texas Sen. Ted Cruz's chance of stopping Trump's nomination march will slim down considerably if he can't pull a rabbit out of a hat in Indiana on Tuesday
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THE ART OF THE NON-DEAL: Ohio Gov. John Kasich had agreed to stay out of Indiana and clear the way for a head-to-head matchup betwen Trump and Cruz, but he insisted people should vote for him anyway
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It's still theoretically possible for Cruz to prevent Trump from collecting the 1,237 Republican National Convention delegates he would need to clinch the nomination, but stopping him would become the longest of long shots if Trump wins Indiana's primary election on Tuesday.
If he prevails, Trump would make a clean sweep of the state's 57 delegates, adding them to a total that news organizations estimate at anywhere from 991 to 998.
Trump insisted on Friday that he had crossed into quadruple-digits with 1,001.
Anti-Trump Republican factions hope the real estate tycoon can be stalled just short of the finish line, throwing July's nominating convention into the chaos of a floor fight.
But most Indiana Republicans believe that instead of an arm-twisting exercise behind the scenes, the attention in such a circumstance should shift to the number of votes the candidates received during the primaries.
Nearly two-thirds told pollsters that the man with the most votes should win the nomination if no one can amass the support of 1,237 delegates.
That would favor Trump, with nearly 10.1 million votes, by a wide margin. He leads Cruz by more than 3.2 million.
Including Indiana, 10 statewide primaries remain in the Republican season. They will hand out 502 convention delegates in all.
Read more:
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- Donald Trump leads Ted Cruz by 15 percentage points among likely Indiana Republican primary voters
- Numbers come from an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll conducted by Marist University
- Trump can sweep Indiana's 57 convention delegates with even a narrow Hoosier victory on Tuesday
- Poll numbers shifted dramatically after legendary University of Indiana basketball coach Bobby Knight endorsed the billionaire
PUBLISHED: 16:16, 1 May 2016 | UPDATED: 23:02, 1 May 2016
Donald Trump is carrying a commanding lead into Tuesday's potentially decisive Indiana Republican primary, according to a new poll that gives him a 15-point edge.
A near majority of Hoosier Republicans, 49 per cent, back the business billionaire Trump. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is trailing with 34 per cent. Ohio Gov. John Kasich is far behind with 13 per cent.
The NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey of likely GOP voters, conducted by Marist University's Institute for Public Opinion, suggests a ringing Trump endorsement from basketball coaching legend Bobby Knight has moved the needle significantly.
A CBS News/YouGov poll published seven days ago had Trump lead hovering at just 5 percentage points. Just one week before that, Cruz led Trump by 16 points in a poll conducted by Indiana University – Purdue University Fort Wayne.
'We were doing really, really well in Indiana,' Trump told a crowd in Terre Haute on Sunday, 'but then I brought out Bobby Knight, and look at these polls! Like a rocket! It's like a rocket ship.'
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WINNING BY THIS MUCH: Donald Trump holds a 15-point lead in the winner-take-all state of Indiana just two days before a critical primary election there
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PUT ME IN, COACH: Legendary Indiana hoops coach Bobby Knight, a cult hero in Hoosier Nation, endorsed Trump loudly and repeatedly last week
YUGE LEAD: Trump has a 15-point cushion in Indiana, but even the slimmest of victories would give him a sweep of the state's 57 convention delegates
Cruz is now campaigning hard to win back some of those votes in a state he admits will be crucial if he is to make a viable case for taking the Republican nomination.
The Terxas senator told ABC: 'We are competing hard. I hope we do well here. I can tell you I'm barnstorming the state, we're in a bus with my family, we're doing everything we can to earn the votes of the men and women in this state.
'We're going the distance. We're competing the entire distance.'
Cruz said he was thankful the primary would be decided by 'Midwestern common sense' and touted his own endorsement from governor Mike Pence, who he called a 'common sense conservative.
However, Cruz stopped short of calling the state a must-win, and instead called it 'critical', leaving the door open for his candidacy to continue even if he looses overall.
Knight backed Trump in a series of rallies and broadcasts last week, praising him in colorful language as the best-prepared man to be president in the history of the United States.
Cruz's public deal with Kasich, by contrast, appears to be a dud.
Kasich agreed not to campaign in Indiana in exchange for Cruz returning the favor in Oregon and New Mexico. the two campaigns announced the strategy with simultaneous press releases a week ago.
But Kasich reneged almost immediately, telling reporters – despite Cruz's claim he had 'pulled out' of the state – that he still wanted Indiana Republicans to vote for him.
The political carve-up, designed to orchestrate one-on-one fights between Trump and his remaining rivals, arrangement earned a thumbs-down from Indianans in the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll.
Fifty-eight per cent of those surveyed said they don't like the deal, compared with just 34 per cent who do. That 24-point margin of disapproval is larger than the 15-point spread Trump enjoyed overall.
.
+4
ON LIFE SUPPORT? Texas Sen. Ted Cruz's chance of stopping Trump's nomination march will slim down considerably if he can't pull a rabbit out of a hat in Indiana on Tuesday
+4
THE ART OF THE NON-DEAL: Ohio Gov. John Kasich had agreed to stay out of Indiana and clear the way for a head-to-head matchup betwen Trump and Cruz, but he insisted people should vote for him anyway
.
It's still theoretically possible for Cruz to prevent Trump from collecting the 1,237 Republican National Convention delegates he would need to clinch the nomination, but stopping him would become the longest of long shots if Trump wins Indiana's primary election on Tuesday.
If he prevails, Trump would make a clean sweep of the state's 57 delegates, adding them to a total that news organizations estimate at anywhere from 991 to 998.
Trump insisted on Friday that he had crossed into quadruple-digits with 1,001.
Anti-Trump Republican factions hope the real estate tycoon can be stalled just short of the finish line, throwing July's nominating convention into the chaos of a floor fight.
But most Indiana Republicans believe that instead of an arm-twisting exercise behind the scenes, the attention in such a circumstance should shift to the number of votes the candidates received during the primaries.
Nearly two-thirds told pollsters that the man with the most votes should win the nomination if no one can amass the support of 1,237 delegates.
That would favor Trump, with nearly 10.1 million votes, by a wide margin. He leads Cruz by more than 3.2 million.
Including Indiana, 10 statewide primaries remain in the Republican season. They will hand out 502 convention delegates in all.
Read more:
.
How Clinton and Trump Should Choose Their Vice Presidents
9:58 AM ET
Think White House, not voting booth
Now that Ted Cruz has chosen Carly Fiorina as his running mate, next up in the veepstakes are frontrunners Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Who will they select? That may depend on which advantages they expect a running mate to deliver.
For the Clinton campaign, Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown could unite a divided Democratic Party after a contentious primary campaign. Brown appeals to the populist wing of the Democratic Party and may persuade Bernie Sanders supporters to fall in line behind a Clinton/Brown ticket. Although our research indicates that Brown is unlikely to provide an electoral advantage in Ohio, the temptation of selecting a running mate from a crucial battleground state may be too much for Clinton to pass up. Another candidate that could help foster party unity is Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts. Clinton’s advisers stated that she is considering the possibility of a woman joining the ticket, and Warren is a heroic figure among progressive Democrats and many Sanders supporters.
One of Clinton’s strategic objectives also may be to make a historic running-mate selection—perhaps the first Latino vice presidential candidate nominated by a major political party. Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro and Labor Secretary Tom Perez are potential contenders. Selecting a Latino running mate would further cement the historic legacy of a Clinton presidency, and it would be an overture to this important demographic group within the Democratic Party. However, in a recent analysis of survey data from the American National Elections Studies, we find that running mates from underrepresented demographic groups typically do not improve their ticket’s performance among voters who belong to the same group. If past is prologue, don’t expect Castro or Perez to deliver a significant number of Latino votes by virtue of their presence on the ticket.
For the Trump campaign, party unity may be the highest priority when it comes to vice presidential selection. The Republican Party is deeply divided on his candidacy, as evidenced by the NeverTrump movement, whose greatest success came in April’s Wisconsin primary. Picking the state’s governor, former presidential candidate and Cruz supporter Scott Walker, would present a high-profile symbol of party unity behind which Trump’s most vigorous opponents might rally (or at least say #MaybeTrump). For that matter, Trump already has floated Walker as a potential running mate.
Trump might also consider selecting a running mate with political experience who can steer his policies, if elected, toward legislative passage and Republican orthodoxy. Even The Donald concedes the value of such a partner. Recently, he explained: “I’d want someone who could help me with governing … somebody that can help you with legislation, getting it through.”
Two potential running mates—Congresswoman (or, as she prefers, “Congressman”) Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee and Oklahoma Governor Mary Fallin—not only meet this standard but also have strong conservative credentials. Blackburn, a 13-year veteran of the U.S. House who chairs its panel investigating Planned Parenthood, stated that she would be open to running on Trump’s ticket. Fallin also has a long political career, serving as a state legislator, lieutenant governor, member of Congress and now governor of Oklahoma. Trump was receptive to selecting Fallin as a potential running mate, and, like Trump, she has taken an aggressive stance on combating illegal immigration.
Of course, the greatest advantage that a vice presidential candidate can offer all too often goes overlooked—it is her ability to serve effectively in office if elected. Vice presidents have become increasingly significant in recent presidential administrations. Meanwhile, as our research suggests, their electoral significance is questionable. As the Trump and Clinton campaigns vet potential running mates, we recommend focusing on the advantages that these partners will actually deliver in the White House, more so than in the voting booth.
9:58 AM ET
Think White House, not voting booth
Now that Ted Cruz has chosen Carly Fiorina as his running mate, next up in the veepstakes are frontrunners Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Who will they select? That may depend on which advantages they expect a running mate to deliver.
For the Clinton campaign, Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown could unite a divided Democratic Party after a contentious primary campaign. Brown appeals to the populist wing of the Democratic Party and may persuade Bernie Sanders supporters to fall in line behind a Clinton/Brown ticket. Although our research indicates that Brown is unlikely to provide an electoral advantage in Ohio, the temptation of selecting a running mate from a crucial battleground state may be too much for Clinton to pass up. Another candidate that could help foster party unity is Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts. Clinton’s advisers stated that she is considering the possibility of a woman joining the ticket, and Warren is a heroic figure among progressive Democrats and many Sanders supporters.
One of Clinton’s strategic objectives also may be to make a historic running-mate selection—perhaps the first Latino vice presidential candidate nominated by a major political party. Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro and Labor Secretary Tom Perez are potential contenders. Selecting a Latino running mate would further cement the historic legacy of a Clinton presidency, and it would be an overture to this important demographic group within the Democratic Party. However, in a recent analysis of survey data from the American National Elections Studies, we find that running mates from underrepresented demographic groups typically do not improve their ticket’s performance among voters who belong to the same group. If past is prologue, don’t expect Castro or Perez to deliver a significant number of Latino votes by virtue of their presence on the ticket.
For the Trump campaign, party unity may be the highest priority when it comes to vice presidential selection. The Republican Party is deeply divided on his candidacy, as evidenced by the NeverTrump movement, whose greatest success came in April’s Wisconsin primary. Picking the state’s governor, former presidential candidate and Cruz supporter Scott Walker, would present a high-profile symbol of party unity behind which Trump’s most vigorous opponents might rally (or at least say #MaybeTrump). For that matter, Trump already has floated Walker as a potential running mate.
Trump might also consider selecting a running mate with political experience who can steer his policies, if elected, toward legislative passage and Republican orthodoxy. Even The Donald concedes the value of such a partner. Recently, he explained: “I’d want someone who could help me with governing … somebody that can help you with legislation, getting it through.”
Two potential running mates—Congresswoman (or, as she prefers, “Congressman”) Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee and Oklahoma Governor Mary Fallin—not only meet this standard but also have strong conservative credentials. Blackburn, a 13-year veteran of the U.S. House who chairs its panel investigating Planned Parenthood, stated that she would be open to running on Trump’s ticket. Fallin also has a long political career, serving as a state legislator, lieutenant governor, member of Congress and now governor of Oklahoma. Trump was receptive to selecting Fallin as a potential running mate, and, like Trump, she has taken an aggressive stance on combating illegal immigration.
Of course, the greatest advantage that a vice presidential candidate can offer all too often goes overlooked—it is her ability to serve effectively in office if elected. Vice presidents have become increasingly significant in recent presidential administrations. Meanwhile, as our research suggests, their electoral significance is questionable. As the Trump and Clinton campaigns vet potential running mates, we recommend focusing on the advantages that these partners will actually deliver in the White House, more so than in the voting booth.
[h=1]Can you spot the Trump card? Now try the Clinton card! Daily Mail Online challenges YOU to find the presidential candidates hidden away in a fiendishly-tricky puzzle[/h]
PUBLISHED: 17:29, 2 May 2016 | UPDATED: 20:39, 2 May 2016
First, we had to find the panda in a sea of snowmen. Then, we looked for the potato in a crowd of hamsters.
And now? Daily Mail Online wants you to find Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in a pack of playing cards.
The Republican and Democratic front-runners' faces are both hidden somewhere among the kings and queens in this illustrated image — but can you scope them out without a hint?
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Playing games: Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton's faces are hidden in this pile of playing cards
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- Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump's faces are hidden among a bunch of playing cards
- The puzzle, made exclusively for Daily Mail Online, paints the Democratic frontrunner as a queen and the Republican candidate as a king
PUBLISHED: 17:29, 2 May 2016 | UPDATED: 20:39, 2 May 2016
First, we had to find the panda in a sea of snowmen. Then, we looked for the potato in a crowd of hamsters.
And now? Daily Mail Online wants you to find Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in a pack of playing cards.
The Republican and Democratic front-runners' faces are both hidden somewhere among the kings and queens in this illustrated image — but can you scope them out without a hint?
+12
Playing games: Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton's faces are hidden in this pile of playing cards
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Thank you South Bend, Indiana! Everyone get out & #VoteTrump tomorrow! #INPrimary https://instagram.com/p/BE7YHv1mhRR/
[h=2]Hoosier daddy! Trump wins in Indiana and is on course to secure more than 50% of the vote - but Cruz shows no signs of bowing out[/h]
Donald Trump has scored a big win in the Indiana primary, dealing a brutal blow to his main rival Ted Cruz. Trump repeatedly declared that 'it's over' if the Texas Senator couldn't win Indiana, with polls leading up to the final vote showing the real estate mogul had a massive lead. With just 9 percent of the vote in, Donald Trump was leading Ted Cruz 54 percent to 33 percent. Ohio Gov. John Kasich trailed with just 10 percent of the vote. CNN has already projected Trump to win the primary. There are 59 delegates at stake in Indiana, and if Trump is able to score a blowout, his path to a win at the Republican National Convention will begin to look very difficult to stop. Cruz showed no signs of fading away Tuesday. After holding a furious press conference where he ripped Trump as a habitual 'liar' and 'serial philanderer,' Cruz announced that he'll hold campaign events in Nebraska and Washington on Wednesday.
