It just occurred to me that possibly you were completely ignorant of the fact that the contingency you
referred to, that is Trump not reaching 1237, was already factored in on the odds. Know this, Bookmaker
was aware of that possibility & considers Trump 3 to 1 while Cruz is 37 to 1 & Kasich 41 to 1. Like I said
why are they even bothering to continue.
Not exactly. Use the proper odds, for the R nomination, not for the POTUS. They are continuing becuse they believe they have a chance at the nomination, once Drumpf falls short. Kasich is a FAR stronger general election candidate than Drumpf. Surely even you realize this.
| 2016 US PRESIDENTAL ELECTION -REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE | ||||
| DONALD TRUMP | -402 | |||
| JOHN KASICH | +852 | |||
| TED CRUZ | +577 |
The ultimate goal is the presidency & those with rational minds rarely spend there time or others money
in an attempt to attain a 40-1 pipe dream.
As a gambler I recall only one bet I collected on with those odds. In a driving rainstorm I was at Belmont Park
for the Belmont Stakes probably over 30 years ago when I collected as I recall over $800 on Temperance Hill at
slightly over 40-1. There won't be anything as damaging to the odds in politics as a Triple crown horse race
in those conditions!
"@Don_Vito_08: "A picture is worth a thousand words" @realDonaldTrump #LyingTed #NeverCruz @MELANIATRUMP "
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Trump is second choice for Cruz AND Kasich supporters, poll shows
Sen. Ted Cruz has labeled John Kasich a 'spoiler' suggesting that if the Ohio governor were to get out of the presidential race then Cruz would grab up all of his voters and be able to take out Donald Trump.
[h=1]Trump is second choice for Cruz AND Kasich supporters poll shows[/h]
PUBLISHED: 22:58, 23 March 2016 | UPDATED: 23:19, 23 March 2016
Sen. Ted Cruz has labeled John Kasich a 'spoiler' suggesting that if the Ohio governor were to get out of the presidential race then Cruz would grab up all of his voters and be able to take out frontrunner Donald Trump.
But that's flawed thinking on Cruz's part, a new poll shows.
A Quinnipiac University survey found that the second choice pick for both Cruz and Kasich supporters was The Donald, who would then potentially beat either of his Republican rivals if the race came down to a head-to-head match.
.
+3
SO MUCH WINNING: Donald Trump wins if he goes head-to-head against just Sen. Ted Cruz or just Ohio Gov. John Kasich
.
[h=1]Trump is second choice for Cruz AND Kasich supporters poll shows[/h]
- Sen. Ted Cruz has been calling Gov. John Kasich a 'spoiler' thinking that he would be the second choice of the Ohioans supporters
- A new Quinnipiac University poll shows that's not the case with Trump getting the bulk of the second place support from Kasich and Cruz fans
- In the current three-way race, Trump beats his rivals in every demographic except for the 'very conservative' who choose Cruz
PUBLISHED: 22:58, 23 March 2016 | UPDATED: 23:19, 23 March 2016
Sen. Ted Cruz has labeled John Kasich a 'spoiler' suggesting that if the Ohio governor were to get out of the presidential race then Cruz would grab up all of his voters and be able to take out frontrunner Donald Trump.
But that's flawed thinking on Cruz's part, a new poll shows.
A Quinnipiac University survey found that the second choice pick for both Cruz and Kasich supporters was The Donald, who would then potentially beat either of his Republican rivals if the race came down to a head-to-head match.
.
+3
SO MUCH WINNING: Donald Trump wins if he goes head-to-head against just Sen. Ted Cruz or just Ohio Gov. John Kasich
.
If Ohio Gov. John Kasich (left) drops out his supporters' second choice is Donald Trump. If Sen. Ted Cruz (right) drops out, his supporters would also more likely go to Trump than switch to Kasich
The poll results show that 43 percent of the Republicans surveyed selected Trump as their first place pick to be the GOP nominee.
Cruz, second place in the delegate count as well, received 29 percent support, while Kasich received 16 percent.
Now when Kasich voters were asked who they'd pick if their guy got out of the race, 46 percent said Trump and 37 percent said Cruz.
If Cruz were to drop out first, 25 percent said they would go for Kasich while 56 percent would select Trump.
Trump's numbers are so strong because he dominates his rivals in nearly every category.
Cruz only bests the Donald in one, those voters who lean Republican who identify as 'very conservative.'
.
This demographic goes to Cruz 47-to-42 percent.
Tea Party voters are about evenly split between Trump and Cruz with only one point of difference in between.
If Cruz were to pull out of the race, this is the group that most dramatically moves to Trump's corner with 71 percent supporting the billionaire and just 18 percent selecting Kasich.
Without Kasich in the race, Cruz doesn't edge out Trump in any new demographics among those who were previously supporting the Ohio governor, he simply beats the frontrunner by six points among very conservative former Kasich supporters – a similar advantage that he held with the general electorate.
.
Wow that is crazy
If Ohio Gov. John Kasich (left) drops out his supporters' second choice is Donald Trump. If Sen. Ted Cruz (right) drops out, his supporters would also more likely go to Trump than switch to Kasich
The poll results show that 43 percent of the Republicans surveyed selected Trump as their first place pick to be the GOP nominee.
Cruz, second place in the delegate count as well, received 29 percent support, while Kasich received 16 percent.
Now when Kasich voters were asked who they'd pick if their guy got out of the race, 46 percent said Trump and 37 percent said Cruz.
If Cruz were to drop out first, 25 percent said they would go for Kasich while 56 percent would select Trump.
Trump's numbers are so strong because he dominates his rivals in nearly every category.
Cruz only bests the Donald in one, those voters who lean Republican who identify as 'very conservative.'
.
This demographic goes to Cruz 47-to-42 percent.
Tea Party voters are about evenly split between Trump and Cruz with only one point of difference in between.
If Cruz were to pull out of the race, this is the group that most dramatically moves to Trump's corner with 71 percent supporting the billionaire and just 18 percent selecting Kasich.
Without Kasich in the race, Cruz doesn't edge out Trump in any new demographics among those who were previously supporting the Ohio governor, he simply beats the frontrunner by six points among very conservative former Kasich supporters – a similar advantage
.
[h=3]Polling Data[/h]
[h=3]Polling Data[/h]
The only people that don't get it are the idiots voting in the GOP Primary. If they want to lose, yet again, just keep doing what you're doing.
| Poll | Date | Sample | MoE | Kasich (R) | Clinton (D) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCP Average | 3/16 - 3/22 | -- | -- | 48.6 | 42.0 | Kasich +6.6 |
| FOX News | 3/20 - 3/22 | 1016 RV | 3.0 | 51 | 40 | Kasich +11 |
| Bloomberg | 3/19 - 3/22 | 815 LV | 3.4 | 47 | 43 | Kasich +4 |
| Quinnipiac | 3/16 - 3/21 | 1451 RV | 2.6 | 47 | 39 | Kasich +8 |
| CBS News/NY Times | 3/17 - 3/20 | 1058 RV | 4.0 | 47 | 43 | Kasich +4 |
| CNN/ORC | 3/17 - 3/20 | 925 RV | 3.0 | 51 | 45 | Kasich +6 |
| Poll | Date | Sample | MoE | Clinton (D) | Trump (R) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCP Average | 3/16 - 3/22 | -- | -- | 50.4 | 39.0 | Clinton +11.4 |
| FOX News | 3/20 - 3/22 | 1016 RV | 3.0 | 49 | 38 | Clinton +11 |
| Bloomberg | 3/19 - 3/22 | 815 LV | 3.4 | 54 | 36 | Clinton +18 |
| Quinnipiac | 3/16 - 3/21 | 1451 RV | 2.6 | 46 | 40 | Clinton +6 |
| CBS News/NY Times | 3/17 - 3/20 | 1058 RV | 4.0 | 50 | 40 | Clinton +10 |
| CNN/ORC | 3/17 - 3/20 | 925 RV | 3.0 | 53 | 41 | Clinton +12 |
The only people that don't get it are the idiots voting in the GOP Primary. If they want to lose, yet again, just keep doing what you're doing.
History tells us, those who are not idiots that is, the general election polls are not relevant until the
candidates are actually nominated.
Flashback March 1980: Reagan Faces Probable
Defeat – Trails Carter by 15 Points
1988 May
Dukakis 54% Bush #1 38%
1992 May
Perrot 35%
Bush 35%
Clinton 25%
This is why I feel knee deep in midgets when I see posts about abstract possibilities before
the reality of the contest is confirmed.
By the way you are half right. The only people that don't get it are the idiots of the GOP pundits class
& establishment & far right litmus test conservative kooks. The venom they display toward the front runner
is preventing any hope that any republican can win in the general.
[h=3]Polling Data[/h]
[h=3]Polling Data[/h]
| Poll | Date | Sample | Favorable | Unfavorable | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCP Average | 2/26 - 3/22 | -- | 30.4 | 63.2 | -32.8 |
| FOX News | 3/20 - 3/22 | 1016 RV | 31 | 65 | -34 |
| Bloomberg | 3/19 - 3/22 | 1000 A | 29 | 68 | -39 |
| Quinnipiac | 3/16 - 3/21 | 1451 RV | 33 | 61 | -28 |
| CBS News/NY Times | 3/17 - 3/20 | 1252 A | 24 | 57 | -33 |
| CNN/ORC | 3/17 - 3/20 | 1001 A | 31 | 67 | -36 |
| Monmouth | 3/17 - 3/20 | 848 RV | 30 | 60 | -30 |
| The Economist/YouGov | 3/10 - 3/12 | 2000 A | 36 | 61 | -25 |
| ABC News/Wash Post | 3/3 - 3/6 | 1000 A | 30 | 67 | -37 |
| Gallup | 2/26 - 3/3 | A | 30 | 63 | -33 |
| Poll | Date | Sample | Favorable | Unfavorable | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCP Average | 2/26 - 3/22 | -- | 40.7 | 53.9 | -13.2 |
| FOX News | 3/20 - 3/22 | 1016 RV | 39 | 58 | -19 |
| Bloomberg | 3/19 - 3/22 | 1000 A | 44 | 53 | -9 |
| Quinnipiac | 3/16 - 3/21 | 1451 RV | 39 | 56 | -17 |
| CBS News/NY Times | 3/17 - 3/20 | 1252 A | 31 | 52 | -21 |
| CNN/ORC | 3/17 - 3/20 | 1001 A | 43 | 56 | -13 |
| Monmouth | 3/17 - 3/20 | 848 RV | 40 | 51 | -11 |
| The Economist/YouGov | 3/10 - 3/12 | 2000 A | 43 | 54 | -11 |
| ABC News/Wash Post | 3/3 - 3/6 | 1000 A | 46 | 52 | -6 |
| Gallup | 2/26 - 3/3 | A | 41 | 53 | -12 |
[h=3]Polling Data[/h]
[h=3]Polling Data[/h]
Of course, only one candidate with a chance to win the POTUS is actually liked by the voters. And as usual, the psycho GOP base will nominate one of the ones that is hated by the voters, outside of their tiny, insane bubble.
| Poll | Date | Sample | Favorable | Unfavorable | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCP Average | 2/26 - 3/22 | -- | 33.4 | 51.0 | -17.6 |
| FOX News | 3/20 - 3/22 | 1016 RV | 36 | 53 | -17 |
| Bloomberg | 3/19 - 3/22 | 1000 A | 32 | 55 | -23 |
| Quinnipiac | 3/16 - 3/21 | 1451 RV | 32 | 47 | -15 |
| CNN/ORC | 3/17 - 3/20 | 1001 A | 34 | 54 | -20 |
| Monmouth | 3/17 - 3/20 | 848 RV | 37 | 43 | -6 |
| The Economist/YouGov | 3/10 - 3/12 | 2000 A | 32 | 55 | -23 |
| ABC News/Wash Post | 3/3 - 3/6 | 1000 A | 35 | 51 | -16 |
| Gallup | 2/26 - 3/3 | A | 29 | 50 | -21 |
| Poll | Date | Sample | Favorable | Unfavorable | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCP Average | 3/10 - 3/22 | -- | 43.2 | 28.3 | +14.9 |
| FOX News | 3/20 - 3/22 | 1016 RV | 40 | 33 | +7 |
| Bloomberg | 3/19 - 3/22 | 1000 A | 46 | 32 | +14 |
| Quinnipiac | 3/16 - 3/21 | 1451 RV | 43 | 20 | +23 |
| CNN/ORC | 3/17 - 3/20 | 1001 A | 40 | 31 | +9 |
| Monmouth | 3/17 - 3/20 | 848 RV | 50 | 18 | +32 |
| The Economist/YouGov | 3/10 - 3/12 | 2000 A | 40 | 36 | +4 |
- MARCH 24, 2016 -
POLL: TRUMP JUMPS OUT TO BIG LEAD IN CALIFORNIA PRIMARY
Mercury News
Donald Trump has roared into the lead in the upcoming California Republican primary, bolstering his hopes of winning the GOP nomination and avoiding a nasty convention fight, a new poll has found.
In the first independent survey since it became apparent that the Golden State will play a major role in deciding the Republican presidential nominee, the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California found that Trump has the support of 38 percent of likely voters, while Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is favored by 27 percent. Ohio Gov. John Kasich placed a distant third with 14 percent.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton, who appears well on her way to getting her party's nomination, led Bernie Sanders by 48 percent to 41 percent, according to the poll released Wednesday.
Trump continues to surpass expectations. He is the leading candidate across age, income, education and gender groupings, the poll found, despite being targeted by a multimillion-dollar negative ad campaign and being called "a phony" and "a fraud" by the GOP's 2012 nominee, Mitt Romney. Trump's poll numbers have soared since the last major survey of California voters -- a January Field Poll -- which showed Cruz with a narrow lead.
Some of the state's veteran political analysts said they weren't surprised.
"California Republicans are deeply concerned about immigration, which is Trump's signature issue," said Jack Pitney, a former GOP staffer who is now a professor of politics at Claremont McKenna College.
While Sanders may benefit from independent voters who can cast ballots in California's Democratic presidential primary, the closely watched GOP race is open to only registered Republicans.
At this point, there appears to be two possible outcomes of the Republican contest: Either Trump wins the 1,237 delegates he needs to claim the nomination -- or no one does, and the fractured party is left to choose its nominee at its national convention in Cleveland.
With California awarding most of its 172 delegates equally to the winners in each of the state's 53 congressional districts, Republican leaders, fearful that Trump would get creamed in the general election, are counting on Cruz to limit his delegate haul by beating him in a variety of districts where he is perceived as vulnerable.
But that will be a hefty challenge if Trump truly leads among every segment of the Republican electorate, said Bruce Cain, director of Stanford University's Bill Lane Center for the American West.
"Not only is Cruz behind, but there is no obvious strategy as to who he can target or where he can target," Cain said.
Switching gears to attack Trump statewide would "take an enormous amount of money," Cain added. "But that might be the only strategy left given what the data show."
Still, the PPIC's president and CEO, Mark Baldassare, stressed that the results revealed potential trouble for the brash New York businessman: Trump might have already maxed out his support.
When Florida Sen. Marco Rubio dropped out of the race last week, Trump's poll numbers held steady, while Rubio's backers flocked to Cruz and Kasich. And one in five Republican voters told the PPIC they wanted "someone else" or hadn't made up their mind.
"That is a significant sign that many Republicans are looking elsewhere besides Donald Trump and still deciding what to do," Baldassare said.
Indecision also marks the race for U.S. Senate, where the top-two finishers in the June primary will face off in November regardless of party.
The poll found state Attorney General Kamala Harris with support from 26 percent of likely voters, while fellow Democrat Loretta Sanchez, a congresswoman from Santa Ana, was supported by 17 percent.
Republican candidates are lagging behind as 31 percent of voters remain undecided. Former state GOP Chairman Tom Del Beccaro, of Lafayette, polled at 9 percent. Duf Sundheim, of Los Altos Hills, also a former chairman of the state party, came in at 6 percent. Ron Unz, a Republican businessman who ran for governor in 1994, entered the race after polling had been completed.
The poll queried 1,039 likely voters from March 6 to 15. Rubio dropped out of the race late on March 15, so the PPIC recalculated the poll to include Rubio supporters' second choices.
The margin of error was plus or minus 7.3 percentage points for the Republican primary, 6.2 percentage points for the Democratic primary and 4.4 points for all likely voters. The poll did not include a large enough sample size to break down Trump's support by congressional district, Baldassare said.
While nearly two-thirds of Democrats said they were happy with their choices for president, less than half of Republicans and about one-third of independents felt the same way.
Ngan Tran, a 37-year-old independent voter from Santa Cruz, said he plans to cast an unenthusiastic vote for Clinton in the Democratic primary, which is open to independents.
"I wish there was someone better, but the Republican candidates disgust me," Tran said. "I wish they would nominate someone more sane."
Phil McGinniss, a Republican and retired municipal worker from Morgan Hill, said he might not vote for the next president if the race comes down to Clinton vs. Trump.
"She has lied to so many people, but he says so many crazy things all the time," he said. "I'm a little afraid of that guy having so much power."
Clinton owes her lead over Sanders in part to a 23-point advantage among Latinos and a 19-point lead among women, the poll found.
The sharpest divide centers on age. Clinton is supported by 63 percent of voters 45 and older, and Sanders is supported by 63 percent of voters younger than 45.
On the Republican side, the poll finds Trump's support extending well beyond his ballyhooed base of working-class men without a college degree. Trump led Cruz by 25 percentage points among women; 12 percentage points among college graduates; and 6 points among voters with a household income above $80,000.
But Pitney said there was still time for the anti-Trump forces to coalesce around Cruz and force a contested convention that could nominate someone who hasn't even participated in the primaries.
"There's a lot of uncertainty this year," Pitney said. "But one certainty is that a lot of Republicans are going to be very ticked off at the outcome."
POLL: TRUMP JUMPS OUT TO BIG LEAD IN CALIFORNIA PRIMARY
Mercury News
Donald Trump has roared into the lead in the upcoming California Republican primary, bolstering his hopes of winning the GOP nomination and avoiding a nasty convention fight, a new poll has found.
In the first independent survey since it became apparent that the Golden State will play a major role in deciding the Republican presidential nominee, the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California found that Trump has the support of 38 percent of likely voters, while Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is favored by 27 percent. Ohio Gov. John Kasich placed a distant third with 14 percent.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton, who appears well on her way to getting her party's nomination, led Bernie Sanders by 48 percent to 41 percent, according to the poll released Wednesday.
Trump continues to surpass expectations. He is the leading candidate across age, income, education and gender groupings, the poll found, despite being targeted by a multimillion-dollar negative ad campaign and being called "a phony" and "a fraud" by the GOP's 2012 nominee, Mitt Romney. Trump's poll numbers have soared since the last major survey of California voters -- a January Field Poll -- which showed Cruz with a narrow lead.
Some of the state's veteran political analysts said they weren't surprised.
"California Republicans are deeply concerned about immigration, which is Trump's signature issue," said Jack Pitney, a former GOP staffer who is now a professor of politics at Claremont McKenna College.
While Sanders may benefit from independent voters who can cast ballots in California's Democratic presidential primary, the closely watched GOP race is open to only registered Republicans.
At this point, there appears to be two possible outcomes of the Republican contest: Either Trump wins the 1,237 delegates he needs to claim the nomination -- or no one does, and the fractured party is left to choose its nominee at its national convention in Cleveland.
With California awarding most of its 172 delegates equally to the winners in each of the state's 53 congressional districts, Republican leaders, fearful that Trump would get creamed in the general election, are counting on Cruz to limit his delegate haul by beating him in a variety of districts where he is perceived as vulnerable.
But that will be a hefty challenge if Trump truly leads among every segment of the Republican electorate, said Bruce Cain, director of Stanford University's Bill Lane Center for the American West.
"Not only is Cruz behind, but there is no obvious strategy as to who he can target or where he can target," Cain said.
Switching gears to attack Trump statewide would "take an enormous amount of money," Cain added. "But that might be the only strategy left given what the data show."Still, the PPIC's president and CEO, Mark Baldassare, stressed that the results revealed potential trouble for the brash New York businessman: Trump might have already maxed out his support.
When Florida Sen. Marco Rubio dropped out of the race last week, Trump's poll numbers held steady, while Rubio's backers flocked to Cruz and Kasich. And one in five Republican voters told the PPIC they wanted "someone else" or hadn't made up their mind.
"That is a significant sign that many Republicans are looking elsewhere besides Donald Trump and still deciding what to do," Baldassare said.
Indecision also marks the race for U.S. Senate, where the top-two finishers in the June primary will face off in November regardless of party.
The poll found state Attorney General Kamala Harris with support from 26 percent of likely voters, while fellow Democrat Loretta Sanchez, a congresswoman from Santa Ana, was supported by 17 percent.
Republican candidates are lagging behind as 31 percent of voters remain undecided. Former state GOP Chairman Tom Del Beccaro, of Lafayette, polled at 9 percent. Duf Sundheim, of Los Altos Hills, also a former chairman of the state party, came in at 6 percent. Ron Unz, a Republican businessman who ran for governor in 1994, entered the race after polling had been completed.
The poll queried 1,039 likely voters from March 6 to 15. Rubio dropped out of the race late on March 15, so the PPIC recalculated the poll to include Rubio supporters' second choices.The margin of error was plus or minus 7.3 percentage points for the Republican primary, 6.2 percentage points for the Democratic primary and 4.4 points for all likely voters. The poll did not include a large enough sample size to break down Trump's support by congressional district, Baldassare said.
While nearly two-thirds of Democrats said they were happy with their choices for president, less than half of Republicans and about one-third of independents felt the same way.
Ngan Tran, a 37-year-old independent voter from Santa Cruz, said he plans to cast an unenthusiastic vote for Clinton in the Democratic primary, which is open to independents.
"I wish there was someone better, but the Republican candidates disgust me," Tran said. "I wish they would nominate someone more sane."
Phil McGinniss, a Republican and retired municipal worker from Morgan Hill, said he might not vote for the next president if the race comes down to Clinton vs. Trump.
"She has lied to so many people, but he says so many crazy things all the time," he said. "I'm a little afraid of that guy having so much power."
Clinton owes her lead over Sanders in part to a 23-point advantage among Latinos and a 19-point lead among women, the poll found.
The sharpest divide centers on age. Clinton is supported by 63 percent of voters 45 and older, and Sanders is supported by 63 percent of voters younger than 45.
On the Republican side, the poll finds Trump's support extending well beyond his ballyhooed base of working-class men without a college degree. Trump led Cruz by 25 percentage points among women; 12 percentage points among college graduates; and 6 points among voters with a household income above $80,000.
But Pitney said there was still time for the anti-Trump forces to coalesce around Cruz and force a contested convention that could nominate someone who hasn't even participated in the primaries.
"There's a lot of uncertainty this year," Pitney said. "But one certainty is that a lot of Republicans are going to be very ticked off at the outcome."
[h=6]- MARCH 24, 2016 -[/h][h=1]CALIFORNIA POLL: TRUMP LEADS GOP; CLINTON, SANDERS CLOSE[/h]Politico
Donald Trump leads among likely California Republican primary voters months ahead of the state's June 7 contest, while Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are within single digits, according to the results of a survey from the Public Policy Institute of California released Wednesday evening.
The survey was conducted from March 6 to March 15, the final day of Florida Sen. Marco Rubio’s campaign. Rubio is thus included in the overall results, which find Trump with 38 percent support, followed by 19 percent for Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and 12 percent each for the Florida senator and Ohio Gov. John Kasich. Roughly 10 percent said they would vote for someone else, while 9 percent said they did not know.
With recalculated results including Rubio supporters’ second choice, Trump still has 38 percent, followed by 27 percent for Cruz and 14 percent for Kasich. Regardless, Trump leads likely Republican voters in every demographic and ideological group.
On the Democratic side, Clinton grabbed 48 percent to Sanders’ 41 percent, with 7 percent responding that they would vote for someone else and 4 percent unsure of whom they would vote for a little more than two months before the primary election.
The usual age, racial, ideological and gender gaps revealed in exit polls from past primary contests are on display in the latest survey as well. The former secretary of state leads Sanders 63 percent to 27 percent among likely voters 45 and older, but the Vermont senator leads 63 percent to 22 percent among likely voters aged 18 to 44. Among Latinos, Clinton leads 58 percent to 35 percent, but among whites, Sanders holds a 46 percent to 41 percent lead. Among those describing themselves as very liberal, Sanders leads 57 percent to 41 percent, while among people professing to be more moderate, Clinton leads 51 percent to 33 percent. Clinton also leads among women 54 percent to 35 percent, while Sanders leads among men 48 percent to 39 percent.
Californians likely to vote in their state’s Democratic primary indicated a higher share of satisfaction than their Republican or independent counterparts, with 65 percent describing themselves as satisfied with their choice of candidates. Among Republicans, just 46 percent responded the same way, compared with 34 percent of independents.
The poll was conducted with the support of the James Irvine Foundation, surveying 1,710 adults across the state with an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points. For the 1,385 registered voters surveyed, the margin of error is plus or minus 3.9 percentage points. For the 1,039 likely voters, the margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points, while the margin of error for the 529 likely Democratic primary voters is plus or minus 6.2 percentage points and the margin of error for the 321 likely Republican primary voters is plus or minus 7.3 percentage points.
Donald Trump leads among likely California Republican primary voters months ahead of the state's June 7 contest, while Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are within single digits, according to the results of a survey from the Public Policy Institute of California released Wednesday evening.
The survey was conducted from March 6 to March 15, the final day of Florida Sen. Marco Rubio’s campaign. Rubio is thus included in the overall results, which find Trump with 38 percent support, followed by 19 percent for Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and 12 percent each for the Florida senator and Ohio Gov. John Kasich. Roughly 10 percent said they would vote for someone else, while 9 percent said they did not know.
With recalculated results including Rubio supporters’ second choice, Trump still has 38 percent, followed by 27 percent for Cruz and 14 percent for Kasich. Regardless, Trump leads likely Republican voters in every demographic and ideological group.
On the Democratic side, Clinton grabbed 48 percent to Sanders’ 41 percent, with 7 percent responding that they would vote for someone else and 4 percent unsure of whom they would vote for a little more than two months before the primary election.
The usual age, racial, ideological and gender gaps revealed in exit polls from past primary contests are on display in the latest survey as well. The former secretary of state leads Sanders 63 percent to 27 percent among likely voters 45 and older, but the Vermont senator leads 63 percent to 22 percent among likely voters aged 18 to 44. Among Latinos, Clinton leads 58 percent to 35 percent, but among whites, Sanders holds a 46 percent to 41 percent lead. Among those describing themselves as very liberal, Sanders leads 57 percent to 41 percent, while among people professing to be more moderate, Clinton leads 51 percent to 33 percent. Clinton also leads among women 54 percent to 35 percent, while Sanders leads among men 48 percent to 39 percent.
Californians likely to vote in their state’s Democratic primary indicated a higher share of satisfaction than their Republican or independent counterparts, with 65 percent describing themselves as satisfied with their choice of candidates. Among Republicans, just 46 percent responded the same way, compared with 34 percent of independents.
The poll was conducted with the support of the James Irvine Foundation, surveying 1,710 adults across the state with an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points. For the 1,385 registered voters surveyed, the margin of error is plus or minus 3.9 percentage points. For the 1,039 likely voters, the margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points, while the margin of error for the 529 likely Democratic primary voters is plus or minus 6.2 percentage points and the margin of error for the 321 likely Republican primary voters is plus or minus 7.3 percentage points.
