(Hey shrink, I cannot believe how you screwed up big time)

[wantitall4moi]

Shrink once told me that Ihad said one of the stupidest things he had read when I said math played very little part in gambling.

But THIS is the prime example of when math REALLY means anything at all.

If you can't correlate odds when every game is amust win to win a bet, then don't comment on math being important.

The lines on those individual games would need to be off more than 30 cents to even be close to what you got for the series, versus what parlaying your money would have gotten.

I know I looked at it, and saw how bad +580 was. They couldn't justify a line like that. But with a 3-1 lead people thught the line was way too small on NYY as it was. So the books made out double. They gt the take on the individual games as well as all the guys that were laying -650 on the Yankees.

Easy to say afterwards. But no way anyone could think less than +620 on the Sox there was even close to being right. And as it turned out +620 wasn't even enough.

 

[THE SHRINK]

Inside and wantitall,

Here is something else to dwell on too..

Hope you enjoy it... :finger:

Wager details for ticket number 29225612-1:

<TABLE borderColor=#ffffff border=1><TBODY><TR><TD class=detailHeader>Wager Type:</TD><TD class=accountText>Money</TD></TR><TR><TD class=detailHeader>Wager Status:</TD><TD class=accountText>Loss</TD></TR><TR><TD class=detailHeader><NOBR>Risk / To Win Amount:</NOBR></TD><TD class=accountText>6,000.00 / 5,000.00 (USD)</TD></TR><TR><TD class=detailHeader>Date Accepted:</TD><TD class=accountText>25-October-2004</TD></TR><TR><TD class=detailHeader>Time Accepted:</TD><TD class=accountText>4:02:56 PM (Pacific)</TD></TR></TD></TR><TR><TD class=detailHeader>Sport/Period:</TD><TD class=accountText>MLB Baseball / Game </TD></TR><TR><TD class=detailHeader>Teams: </TD><TD class=accountText>Boston Red Sox vs St Louis Cardinals</TD></TR><TR><TD class=detailHeader>Game Date: </TD><TD class=accountText>26-October-2004</TD></TR><TR><TD class=detailHeader>Wager Line:</TD><TD class=accountText>St Louis Cardinals -120</TD></TR><TR><TD class=detailHeader>Pitchers:</TD><TD class=accountText>P. Martinez - must start vs J. Suppan - must start</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[jjgold]

I asked around and the bet Shrink made was the right one

Too much uncertainity if he bet game by game

 

[Cujo]

I asked around and the bet Shrink made was the right one

Too much uncertainity if he bet game by game

There was too much uncertainty (on the Sox). Nobody could foresee just how well Schilling could pitch on his bum ankle so even if you priced him as a decent favorite you would be taking a bigger gamble in saying that the public would bet Schill and his gimpy ankle instead of the Yankees imo.

Fat Tony,

Just curious how you cap your games before the lines come out? Or do you wait until then? What I do is come up with my line the day before and when the lines do come out I compare them to see which are off with mine in order to take advantage of what I feel are soft lines. I don't do baseball but I imagine it's possible. There's a finite # of possible pitchers so if you were industrious enough you could run all the scenarios.

 

[sickgambler]

i guess you boys just dont get the whole thing. Here is a perfect example... Pinnacle now has STL at +1765 to win the series. If Kenny plays this, this will turn out to be another horrible bet.. Why... Because instead of doing this,all he would have to do now is play each of the remaining games individually by shopping around with his 34 books by getting the best price on each game, and I guarantee you that he would end up getting probably around +3265, rather than a lousy +1765.. Plus, he has 34 books to shop around with, which makes it that much easier. And even if youre an everyday gambler with only 3 books, you will still get more by betting each game individually. Bets like these that shrinky made are not smart bets, as you really do lose a lot of $$$..

Remember...

IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH PREDICTING LINES ON EACH GAMES..

 

[THE SHRINK]

Sick,

As I stated, your point is well taken. I did not maximize my return on the parlay alone, but I did bet each game individually as well, which you seem to forget...

Speaking of CREDIBILITY, what happened to your PRESS RELEASE on why you didn't make it to the RX BASH after engaging and taunting our posters for months and making us all believe you would be there?

Do you think it is OK to disappear into obliviousness when so many of us took you at your word?

Please respond to my questions as I have already answered yours...

Thanks,

THE SHRINK

 

[Fishhead]

I like SG, but he lost all credibility with that stunt.

 

[sickgambler]

shrinky, the GODS honest truth is...


I DIDNT MAKE IT PAST THE BORDER...

I was refused entry in the United States because of what happened 10 yrs ago when I was a B.M..

I never filled a waiver and I thought I was clear now, but I wasnt. I applied for it and I should be ok for next bash..

I do have all the proof that this did indeed happen, including my boarding pass and all, and i can fax it to you if you doubt i am telling the truth, BUT I SWEAR its the truth.

The reason why this happend was my freakin fault. I was dressed like a slob with ripped shorts and a ripped shirt, and Customs didnt appreciate that.. So he told me to go inside and when i did, i was asked some questions and the bastard just didnt want to let me in.. I deserved it, Kenny for dressing like an ahole and not shaving.. I had it coming..

I really wanted to be there badly, but i will defiinitely be there next year..

So there you have it kiddo, that was why i couldnt make it.. Next year i am there to meet the boys and kick winkyducks ass in hockey and collect my money he owes me from a bet at the same time..

Geez, how did we end up turning this thread around about me..when it was supposed to be about how bad a bet you just made...:toothless

 

[GMON]

Sick, you truly are...........................................................................PSICK.



ripped shorts and shirt @ the border..........................lmao :heh:

 

[Fishhead]

Sick, you truly are...........................................................................PSICK.



ripped shorts and shirt @ the border..........................lmao :heh:

If you believe that, have some swampland here in Florida we can turn into a cactus farm............and will sell cheap.

 

[GMON]

Fishy: Settle-down, the reason for my calling sick........................PSICK is how the hell does the dude keep coming up with such a line of bullsh*t. You've got to give the guy his due, he's.............................................................................................PSICK.



BTW........................................What side is that land you've got on the coast or on the gulf. :>tongue :>Grin>

 

[truthteller]

I hope they arrest him next time he tries to enter the U.S.