(Hey shrink, I cannot believe how you screwed up big time)

[sickgambler]

This is scary stupid. It is not the same. THERE'S NO WAY TO KNOW THE CLOSING LINE THREE DAYS IN ADVANCE FOR EACH GAME.


How about giving me the closing line for the next two games after tonight. (If it goes that far.)

Hey Tony, an experienced man like THE SHRINK should be able to understand that betting each game individually would get him more $$$$$$... And even if the 3 games were 15-20 cents off against him, he still would have won close to 37,000, which is better than 29,000.

The +580 he got was a terrible number.. Like I said, even if the line was 20 cents against him on each game, he still would have got roughly +750, which is still better than his embarassing +580..

 

[Hitman26]

Ok I'm sorry I'm making no sense at all. Math means nothing. Betting into a series price with an almost 1$ spread is a great way to play it.







Again my apologies to you Fat Tony and you Shrink

That was the sharpest move I've ever seen




Peace to the brothers in Islam

 

[FatTony]

Hey Hitman, an experienced man like THE SHRINK should be able to understand that betting each game individually would get him more $$$$$$... And even if the 3 games were 15-20 cents off against him, he still would have won close to 37,000, which is better than 29,000.

The +580 he got was a terrible number.. Like I said, even if the line was 20 cents against him on each game, he still would have got roughly +750, which is still better than his embarassing +580..

Really?

How much did the line move in game 6 from opening to closing?

 

[Journeyman]

SG has been waiting for something like this to hop back on The Rx Merry Go Round...

He's been sitting idle trying to figure how :think: he can get back on the good ship without causing a big fuss about what happened to him in Vegas...nice effort SG :heh:

 

[jjgold]

Kenny made the right play here

 

[FatTony]

Ok I'm sorry I'm making no sense at all. Math means nothing. Betting into a series price with an almost 1$ spread is a great way to play it.







Again my apologies to you Fat Tony and you Shrink

That was the sharpest move I've ever seen




Peace to the brothers in Islam

Tell me the closing line for game 3 and 4 of the World Series right now and who's definetly starting. Try it.

 

[Hitman26]

Tell me the closing line for game 3 and 4 of the World Series right now and who's definetly starting. Try it.

The closing line is whichever side Shrink likes in each game -9000, the other side +8999.




Fat Tony:


How do you think that the books price series prices?

 

[FatTony]

The closing line is whichever side Shrink likes in each game -9000, the other side +8999.




Fat Tony:


How do you think that the books price series prices?

It's an educated guess. Nobody can see a 60 cent swing on the line in game 6.


Then according to your logic even the books really screwed up putting that series price out there. Right???

 

[Hitman26]

Hey Tony, an experienced man like THE SHRINK should be able to understand that betting each game individually would get him more $$$$$$... And even if the 3 games were 15-20 cents off against him, he still would have won close to 37,000, which is better than 29,000.

The +580 he got was a terrible number.. Like I said, even if the line was 20 cents against him on each game, he still would have got roughly +750, which is still better than his embarassing +580..

Fat Tony:


Until you understand this concept you are never gonna understand what I'm talking about.

 

[FatTony]

Fat Tony:


Until you understand this concept you are never gonna understand what I'm talking about.

Tell me the closing line of game 4 and game 5 of the World series right now.

 

[Journeyman]

the game line has to coincide with the series line, or it would be scalp city

 

[Hitman26]

Fat Tony: I don't know for sure what the closing line is but I will give a a ball park guess and I won't be more than 30 cents off either way. And If I was booking I would have a series price spread that would more than make up for any abnormal line moves.



PROJECTED Opening game 4 line: Stl -180


PROJECTED Opening game 5 line: pk

 

[FatTony]

Fat Tony: I don't know for sure what the closing line is but I will give a a ball park guess and I won't be more than 30 cents off either way. And If I was booking I would have a series price spread that would more than make up for any abnormal line moves.



PROJECTED Opening game 4 line: Stl -180


PROJECTED Opening game 5 line: pk

Ok, fine.

Now you're giving yourself a whopping 30 cent buffer on each game. No problem.

2 team parlay Cards -180 game 4 and Cards -110 in game 5.

$5,000 wins $9848.

Now if you're off by the buffer you gave yourself it changes to

Cards -210 game 4 and Cards -140 in game 5

$5,000 wins $7,653

Do you see how you could be off base $2200 on only a two team parlay with your guess of the lines?


He had a game move 60 cents!!!! Its a huge difference.

 

[Hitman26]

Fat Tony:



Explain this to me please.



How is betting a line of +580 when the lay was -650 a smart move? And don't say "because it won." Do you realize the amount of house edge built into that line? Do you even realize that there is house edge built into that line? Does that concept make any sense to you?

 

[FatTony]

Who cares about the house edge?????

If Boston was +900 and the yanks-1100 for the series you're going to tell me..."Boston is not a good bet. Look at the house edge."


If Boston went to -150 in game 6 and then got only +130 in game 7 would his series bet be a good deal???

 

[Hitman26]

Tony:


You are right. I am wrong. I'm sorry. Goodluck to you. Nice debate/argument and I admit defeat and proclaim you the winner.





Peace and I hope all of your wagers cash:awesom:

 

[FatTony]

Same to you.

 

[sickgambler]

Even if that Schilling game 6 never moved crazily and remained the same, he still would have gotten a 32,000 dollar payout, rather than 29,000.

Fat Tony, i am not saying here that Shrink guessed the lines wrong, that is not the problem here. I am just shocked that shrink didnt think that betting a 3 team parlay on a future would pay much much less than betting them individually. No matter what the lines were, the bettor ALWAYS gets more for his dollar by betting them individually. I NEVER bet parlays, i only bet games individually. You get much more back. Plus, these 3 games were being played on different days, and not simultaneously, which is why it was so much easier for SHRINK.

Did you know that betting a 4 teamer and risking 100 would clear you roughly 14-1 if you bet them individually, rather than 10-1 on a straight 4 team parlay..

NEVER bet a parlay because you lose value.. Bet them individually and you will get more in return, and THE SHRINK should know this, its common sense. The SHRINK has been around a long time in this business.

 

[FatTony]

What would he have won if Boston was -140 in game 5, Boston -140 in game 6 (Original line) and +130 in game 7 if he let it ride?

 

[InsideThePylons]

Shrink always like to say that he is on the wiseguy side of every bet. Well he was on the sucker/public side on this one.

Anybody who knows anything about bets like this realizes that the dog is always the stone sucker side. Even moron BM's know that on prop bets like these, the majority of their action will be on the dog (always needing the favorite) so they always make the dog the anti-value because very few will ever lay the lumber.

Those who don't understand are proudly gloating and congratulating while those that do are laughing their asses off.:think: :think: :umn: