Here are some team ATS stats to chew on

[GoSooners]

Here is a list of the new coaches:

Army - Rich Ellerson
Auburn - Gene Chizik
Ball State - Stan Parrish
Boston College - frank Spaniani
Bowling Green - Dave Clawson
E. Michigan - Ron English
Iowa St - Paul Rhoads
Kansas St - Bill Snyder*
Miami (Ohio) - Michael Haywood
Miss. State - Dan Mullen*
New Mexico - Mike Locksley
N. Mex. State - Dewayne Walker
Purdue - Danny Hope
S.D. State - Brady Hoke*
Syracuse - Doug Marrone
Tennessee - Land Kiffin
Toledo - Tim Beckman
Utah State - Gary Anderson
Washington - Steve Sarkisian*
Wyoming - Dave Christenson*

* - these are the coaches I think could have a positive effect on their new teams
I wonder how your system would work with second year coaches - that could be meaningful for teams like Michigan in 2009

Russ...I haven't been hearing a whole lot about new Iowa State coach Paul Rhodes. But the few things I have heard about him have been very positive. So I'll be keeping an eye on their progress. The Clones will be a team who will get plenty of points and no respect in every game. So they could end up being a good ATS play. I'm hearing that their offense could surprise this year. I think Dan Mullen could make an immediate impact with Miss. State. At least in camparison to what they had before. Same with Dave Christensen of Wyoming. Joe Glenn was absolutely awful there. So I expect this team to show a marked improvement while hopefully not getting any respect with the lines. I'm also a fan of Tim Beckman, who was OSU's DC last year before moving on to take the Toledo job. He could make an immediate impact much like Fedora did at Southern Miss. Toledo was a realtively young team last year and will have most everybody back.

I just realized I just went over 10,000 posts. I don't know if I'm proud of that or not. The the RX now considers me a Semi-God... But you all can just call me God.

 

[Flsunman]

Your name is not Tim Tebow, therefore I cannot call you god. :lol:

 

[YourAllAmerican]

10,000 post... man, that's a bunch. Of those 10,000 I'm guessing there are 3,500 where you use the phrase, "jb, just drop it. Seriously. Let it go."

 

[russ1945]

GoSooners

10,000 posts, wow. I am 63 yrs old and I feel like I am just starting puberty on this forum. That does deserve congrats, as a Semi God I think even Obama would bow down to you.
About Iowa State. I have been thinking along the same lines as you. I think Iowa State may have improved at HC and I think the old one had his mind else where (Auburn maybe) some of the time. I don't think he was ever thinking long term at the very least. They are just a little further down the food chain on my list of in depth studying. Let me know what you come up with.

 

[russ1945]

I'm going to have the spreadsheet working again this year, with some automation to try and help keep it more accurate. It's been a pain to update the last couple of seasons, but I've learned a lot about back-end Web programming over the last couple of years and I'm putting some of that into practice.

One thing I want to add this year is the stripping of stats from non-D-I games from all reports. I think that gives a more accurate total. I've also been looking at methods of weighting stats vs weak D-I conferences and/or schools.

In fact I guess one of the first things to start loading into a database will be returning starter information. I imagine I'll start work on that before too much longer.

As the new "kid" on the block and a research freak I am seriously interested in the spreadsheet you already have come up with. I was wondering if you could post an old one on here that I could see and study. I have been thinking about one myself and it could well be that you already have something along the lines of what I have in mind and there is no sense me wasting my time on something that you may have already perfected. I have done preliminary breakdowns on 54 teams and I am now in the process of updating and rechecking my data . I can definitely relate to the amount of time and effort you have put into a spreadheet of that magnitude. If I can do any research for you just drop me a note.

 

[UoweDucks]

2. UCLA - I really don't like the HC but the kids do and that is all that matters. If they play their hearts out they always give you a chance. There again first year coach and too many other teams to consider in the PAC 10 to really focus in on them.
3. Washington St - again, a first year coach, new system, and once again a team that Won all games in Dec ATS. What does that tell you.

I can help you on these two.

UCLA should be very good defensively, in fact the conference as a whole should improve defensively... Offensively though UCLA continues to look VERY pedestrian. There is a wildcard element to this team and it is within the uncertainty at QB production. So far Prince looks to be the guy but he is not coming along as Nue or Chow would have hoped by now. This can change and if it does I think that there is some decent potential for UCLA to improve on their 7-5 ATS last yr.

WSU. We made a killing here fading the cougs but were wary towards the end as the linesmakers appeared to be catching on, they did. The cougs I think could represent a lot of value early on but so much depends on their health. Last year the cougs lost an astounding 40 players at one time or another to injury/suspension/grades and they exhausted their resources at QB even holding tryouts among the student body for help... Many of those issues still remained into their spring camp. They couldn't even hold a real scrimmage. Jury is still way out on this team, but like UCLA the potential for ATS success is here. WSU actually has one of the better backfields offensively in the conference with Montgomery (Cal transfer)/Tardy these are P10 players. Their starting qb will likely be Loebenstall who I think has a lot going for him.

I've written in the P10 thread about the ATS value I see in UW, I am thinking that will be the team to "play on" in the conference. This team meets several of GoSooners criteria; new coach, stud qb, returning starters...

 

[russ1945]

Ducks

Thanks for the backup info. I admit Washington could surprise and I like the way Washington St finished up but it could have been an over adjustment by the linemakers.

 

[Conan]

Thanks for the backup info. I admit Washington could surprise and I like the way Washington St finished up but it could have been an over adjustment by the linemakers.

Russ, from everything I have been able to gather up to now, it appears that WSU will continue to be besieged by problems as they were last season. As Ducks mentioned, they seem to have a few key skill players on offense and might be able to light it up some but they are thin and their defense is almost non-existent. As pointed out, the linemaker finally caught up to them but it took most of the season for them to get there. It seems a bit dobtful, but 30+ point lines might be what we see again this season. It could go that far. Had to tell if they will be able to keep it very close with what they have. One might assume that they will manage to strike back better than last season but it's impossible to to figure them out at this point. Don't even try it. Your scalp will bleed.

 

[GoSooners]

I can help you on these two.

UCLA should be very good defensively, in fact the conference as a whole should improve defensively... Offensively though UCLA continues to look VERY pedestrian. There is a wildcard element to this team and it is within the uncertainty at QB production. So far Prince looks to be the guy but he is not coming along as Nue or Chow would have hoped by now. This can change and if it does I think that there is some decent potential for UCLA to improve on their 7-5 ATS last yr.

WSU. We made a killing here fading the cougs but were wary towards the end as the linesmakers appeared to be catching on, they did. The cougs I think could represent a lot of value early on but so much depends on their health. Last year the cougs lost an astounding 40 players at one time or another to injury/suspension/grades and they exhausted their resources at QB even holding tryouts among the student body for help... Many of those issues still remained into their spring camp. They couldn't even hold a real scrimmage. Jury is still way out on this team, but like UCLA the potential for ATS success is here. WSU actually has one of the better backfields offensively in the conference with Montgomery (Cal transfer)/Tardy these are P10 players. Their starting qb will likely be Loebenstall who I think has a lot going for him.

I've written in the P10 thread about the ATS value I see in UW, I am thinking that will be the team to "play on" in the conference. This team meets several of GoSooners criteria; new coach, stud qb, returning starters...

Between UCLA, WSU and U-Dub the Huskies do look like the best ATS prospect. When i think of good ATS prospects I don't really think of teams who aren't capable of winning (WSU), but teams who are in the game until the end and come in under the spread. And I think Washington is the better prospect. Washington is going to win some games this year if Locker stays healthy. And judging by what he did in the spring it looks like he's totally over his hand injury. Three things really derailed Washington last season. The weak O/D-Lines, Locker getting hurt, and the excessive celebration call against Locker that kept them from beating BYU early and getting that first win under their belts I believe played as a big negative on their psyche. But I love the combination of a new coach and a star QB who is essentially getting reinvented by Sarkasian in going to the pro style offense. This is not only good for a strong armed QB like Locker, but it's good for his future NFL prospects. I would say Sarkasian is coming in at the perfect time when he's got most everybody back. Especially the two lines, who were too young and underdeveloped last season. So this team is definitely on my radar. And maybe with the exception of losing much of their defensive backfield, I really can't think of any negatives on this team.

 

[YourAllAmerican]

As the new "kid" on the block and a research freak I am seriously interested in the spreadsheet you already have come up with. I was wondering if you could post an old one on here that I could see and study. I have been thinking about one myself and it could well be that you already have something along the lines of what I have in mind and there is no sense me wasting my time on something that you may have already perfected. I have done preliminary breakdowns on 54 teams and I am now in the process of updating and rechecking my data . I can definitely relate to the amount of time and effort you have put into a spreadheet of that magnitude. If I can do any research for you just drop me a note.

russ,

I don't have any example of the spreadsheet I've used in previous seasons, as I've already changed the Web page where I posted it. It was basically just an "at a glance" comparision of key stats for the two teams along with a couple of base forecasts based on different factors and comparing those to the sides and totals from an online book. If there were certain items found -- a mismatch in rushing offense vs. rushing defense, for example -- it would highlight that section.

The purpose was just to call attention to items worth looking into more closely.

I'll have it online this season and make it publicly viewable. There may be certain formulas or other criteria that aren't public, but the sheet itself will be online. And I'm pretty sure I'll be able to automate the information gathering this season, which will be nice. I've had to spend too much time cutting and pasting from various sources into a spreadsheet over the last few seasons.

You can take a look at CleanupHitter.com to see the baseball stats for a very general example of how it'll look.

 

[GoSooners]

Fellas...Something else about the importance I put on returning QB's and covering the spread. As I stated, out of the 21 teams with 8 or more ATS wins 15 had returning QB's. A pretty high number as it is. But I put even more importance on this stat if a team is operating out of the spread offense. This is where an experienced QB will have to play an even bigger part. Now there were exceptions last year to this stat like Georgia Tech and Ole Miss who got to 8 wins without a returning QB'. But the key here for both of these teams were that in GT's case they switched to the option offense which takes the pressure off of the QB position and makes it more of a team effort. And in the case of Ole Miss, Nutt brought in more of a running attack that took the pressure off an already talented QB in Snead. Now even with this, he struggled with making mistakes early on, but found his game later in the season when Ole Miss started running the ball effectively. So the offense no longer revolved around him. I also miscalculated Oregon State when calling Maevao a non-starter from the year before. He actually had started 5 games the previous year. So there were actually 16 instead of 15 teams out of 21 with returning QB's. There were two exceptions to this QB stat that I can think of off the top of my head from teams with 8 ATS wins or more. And that was Baylor with new QB Griffin and NCST with new QB Russell Wilson. But let's be realistic here. Those two guys are special. And you don't see many players like this come along. Plus both were helped along by new coaches and systems that fit their games to a tee.. And before the season I didn't have a clue what these two were going to do. So that why I threw both of these teams out of the equation. With the emphasis on today's spread/no huddle offenses the QB is going to play an even bigger part than it did even one or two years ago. If you think this position isn't really important just look at South Carolina. They put more players in the pros (7) this year than any other SEC team, but had a very disappointing season without a decent QB.

 

[YourAllAmerican]

Not to mention that Snead could pretty much have been included on the list of returning spread-running quarterbacks. He'd had a year of pretty heavy experience running that type of system while at Texas.

I'm going to be curious to see how Ole Miss fares this year. By the time 2008 ended I think they were the second-best in the SEC. They certainly finished sharp.

 

[russ1945]

russ,

I don't have any example of the spreadsheet I've used in previous seasons, as I've already changed the Web page where I posted it. It was basically just an "at a glance" comparision of key stats for the two teams along with a couple of base forecasts based on different factors and comparing those to the sides and totals from an online book. If there were certain items found -- a mismatch in rushing offense vs. rushing defense, for example -- it would highlight that section.

The purpose was just to call attention to items worth looking into more closely.

I'll have it online this season and make it publicly viewable. There may be certain formulas or other criteria that aren't public, but the sheet itself will be online. And I'm pretty sure I'll be able to automate the information gathering this season, which will be nice. I've had to spend too much time cutting and pasting from various sources into a spreadsheet over the last few seasons.

You can take a look at CleanupHitter.com to see the baseball stats for a very general example of how it'll look.

Ok I will proceed with the one I am working on which is basically a conveinet compilation of NCAA statistics from 2009 for offense stats, defensive stats, and T.O. margin where all the stats for any given team are side by side for conveince. I was half way through when I saw your post but this sounds different. It lays out nicely and you can get several stats in one glance. I will go ahead and post it when I am through.

 

[russ1945]

Fellas...Something else about the importance I put on returning QB's and covering the spread. As I stated, out of the 21 teams with 8 or more ATS wins 15 had returning QB's. A pretty high number as it is. But I put even more importance on this stat if a team is operating out of the spread offense. This is where an experienced QB will have to play an even bigger part. Now there were exceptions last year to this stat like Georgia Tech and Ole Miss who got to 8 wins without a returning QB'. But the key here for both of these teams were that in GT's case they switched to the option offense which takes the pressure off of the QB position and makes it more of a team effort. And in the case of Ole Miss, Nutt brought in more of a running attack that took the pressure off an already talented QB in Snead. Now even with this, he struggled with making mistakes early on, but found his game later in the season when Ole Miss started running the ball effectively. So the offense no longer revolved around him. I also miscalculated Oregon State when calling Maevao a non-starter from the year before. He actually had started 5 games the previous year. So there were actually 16 instead of 15 teams out of 21 with returning QB's. There were two exceptions to this QB stat that I can think of off the top of my head from teams with 8 ATS wins or more. And that was Baylor with new QB Griffin and NCST with new QB Russell Wilson. But let's be realistic here. Those two guys are special. And you don't see many players like this come along. Plus both were helped along by new coaches and systems that fit their games to a tee.. And before the season I didn't have a clue what these two were going to do. So that why I threw both of these teams out of the equation. With the emphasis on today's spread/no huddle offenses the QB is going to play an even bigger part than it did even one or two years ago. If you think this position isn't really important just look at South Carolina. They put more players in the pros (7) this year than any other SEC team, but had a very disappointing season without a decent QB.

Note: Though they were exceptions because they did not have ret. QB's both GT and Miss had new coaches.

 

[Conan]

GS,

I think some of your criteria are spot on the money. I especially like the returning QB point but I think that can be sharpened up even more if you look at his/her spring performance and of course fall practices. The thing that stood out most about Moevao last year at this time was his improved conditioning and his arm strength, also his vastly improved accuracy hitting his targets in practice like he never did before. This year Oregon State's Sean Canfield seems to be on that path, ALSO JAKE LOCKER! If you haven't read up on it yet, he's been sparkling in practice and he has been throwing at an 80% completion rate, albeit not much downfield to mention but vastly better than before.

An interesting point I'd like to make about the UW/LSU game early in Sept... as you pointed out, UW suffered heavy damage in the BYU game due to a ridiculous "celebration" penalty. Nevertheless, that illustrates how they seem to open strong, even in a bad year (regardless of why.) I also think that their 0-12 record last season will mean their lines should be pretty soft for a while. If LSU opens at 8 or 9, I'd be VERY tempted to take the ponts. 10 or better and I'm on it. Who knows? They may even pull off a shocker. But to be more realistic, I'd feel a lot better about it after I see if they can develop some linemen in fall camp.

 

[GoSooners]

GS,

I think some of your criteria are spot on the money. I especially like the returning QB point but I think that can be sharpened up even more if you look at his/her spring performance and of course fall practices. The thing that stood out most about Moevao last year at this time was his improved conditioning and his arm strength, also his vastly improved accuracy hitting his targets in practice like he never did before. This year Oregon State's Sean Canfield seems to be on that path, ALSO JAKE LOCKER! If you haven't read up on it yet, he's been sparkling in practice and he has been throwing at an 80% completion rate, albeit not much downfield to mention but vastly better than before.

An interesting point I'd like to make about the UW/LSU game early in Sept... as you pointed out, UW suffered heavy damage in the BYU game due to a ridiculous "celebration" penalty. Nevertheless, that illustrates how they seem to open strong, even in a bad year (regardless of why.) I also think that their 0-12 record last season will mean their lines should be pretty soft for a while. If LSU opens at 8 or 9, I'd be VERY tempted to take the ponts. 10 or better and I'm on it. Who knows? They may even pull off a shocker. But to be more realistic, I'd feel a lot better about it after I see if they can develop some linemen in fall camp.

Conan...I've read a little about Locker. It sounds like Sarkasian is trying to develop him into a true NFL type of QB. So there should be quite a change from last year where if Locker couldn't find his first target he took off running. It's good to know that he's now looking for that second or third target and staying more in the pocket. This should also cut down some on his chance of injury. He was something like 20-22 in the spring game. Albeit against the second unit defense. But still, it should be a confidence booster for him going down the road and into fall practices. I see a pretty nice future for the kid if he can stay healthy.

As for LSU, I would be surprised if they weren't at least 10 point favorites or more coming in. Heck, OU was 20 point favorites over them. Even Notre Dame was 10 point favorites coming in. And with the way LSU finished the season in their bowl game combined with Washington going winless last season, I think 10 points could be a conservative number.

 

[Conan]

Conan...I've read a little about Locker. It sounds like Sarkasian is trying to develop him into a true NFL type of QB. So there should be quite a change from last year where if Locker couldn't find his first target he took off running. It's good to know that he's now looking for that second or third target and staying more in the pocket. This should also cut down some on his chance of injury. He was something like 20-22 in the spring game. Albeit against the second unit defense. But still, it should be a confidence booster for him going down the road and into fall practices. I see a pretty nice future for the kid if he can stay healthy.

As for LSU, I would be surprised if they weren't at least 10 point favorites or more coming in. Heck, OU was 20 point favorites over them. Even Notre Dame was 10 point favorites coming in. And with the way LSU finished the season in their bowl game combined with Washington going winless last season, I think 10 points could be a conservative number.

You just reminded me of something I read about Sarkisian and how he gets his QB's to play the pro-set his way. His QB's are REQUIRED to check down to their 2nd or 3rd receiver several times during a scrimmage. It is emphasized in his system. Locker will learn a lot. He's still just a Jr. The pro-set schooling he's been getting could be the best thing that's ever happened to him.

 

[Buckeyemac]

ATS Teams

Kansas State: New direction under an old coach; this should be interesting. This team is short on talent and I remember How Snyder ended his career in Manhattan. This team will get a lot of press and is on my go against team's list.

San Diego State: Brady Hoke is a disciplinarian and wants his teams to be physical. His seven year record at Ball State was 34 -37 SU. Ball State has the worst training facilities in the MAC and last year was his best team ever. SDST has not had a winning season since 1998 and that has amazed me as San Diego is almost like a paradise setting; how well will this midwest boy do on the west coast? Only one way to go here.

Good information and thoughts.
Best Wishes
Buckeyemac

 

[GoSooners]

Kansas State: New direction under an old coach; this should be interesting. This team is short on talent and I remember How Snyder ended his career in Manhattan. This team will get a lot of press and is on my go against team's list.

San Diego State: Brady Hoke is a disciplinarian and wants his teams to be physical. His seven year record at Ball State was 34 -37 SU. Ball State has the worst training facilities in the MAC and last year was his best team ever. SDST has not had a winning season since 1998 and that has amazed me as San Diego is almost like a paradise setting; how well will this midwest boy do on the west coast? Only one way to go here.

Good information and thoughts.
Best Wishes
Buckeyemac

Buckeyemac....I have very little confidence if any that Snyder is going to resurrect the KSU program again. I believe that in the years that he had that program at the top of their game that much of their winning records were padded by some very easy opponents leading up to conference play. And I just recently read where Snyder is up to his old shenanigans again in trying to opt out of KSU's contract with a home and home against UCLA. His motives have always been that he wants it to be as easy as possible before he gets into conference play. And 4 sure wins every season gets them two thirds of the way to a bowl game. It makes them look better than they really are. But it doesn't hide the fact that they are and have been a bad team for the last 5 years. Don't get me wrong, they did have some good teams in the 90's & early 2000's when Stoops and Mangino worked for Snyder. But after all that hype and winning seasons padded by easy teams they still only won one Big 12 Championship. And this year is a mess because Snyder is still dealing with the endless number of JUCO's that Prince brought in that just haven't panned out. Snyder will have to get back to basics and start hitting the recruiting trail before they start making a dent in their Division. Right now they are way behind Kansas and Nebraska for the North.

As for SDSU it's not going to take much to improve on Chuck Long. And I don't think Brady Hoke will be out of his element. I believe a really good coach can go to any school anywhere and make them successful. Urban Meyer is a couple thousand miles from his old job. SDSU's problem was Chuck Long. He wasn't head coaching material. Brady Hoke is. He may have been 34-37 at Ball State. But he went from 5-7 to 7-5 to 12-0 the last 3 years. And I'm sure that's what helped in SDSU hiring him. Chuck Long was a dud..I didn't particually like him when he was an assistant at OU..I look for SDSU to immediatly improve with Hoke.

 

[GoSooners]

Like I stated before, the coaches that were in their second season of coaching tended to do a little better against the spread than the first year coaches. At least this is how it turned out last season. Here is the list of the teams with second year coaches:

Ole Miss
Arkansas
Michigan
Texas A&M
Baylor
Nebraska
Georgia Tech
Duke
UCLA
Washington St.
West Virginia
Colorado St.
SMU
Houston
Southern Miss
Hawaii
Navy
Northern Illinois

Off of this list 3 teams qualified under all 4 of my traits for ATS teams (returning QB, at least 13 starters returning, coming off at least a .500 or better season, coach in his first or second season). They were:

Ole Miss
Georgia Tech
Southern Miss

So unless I find something that turns me off to any of these teams, they will all make my watch list for 2009.