It may take a little while for June Jones to install his spread, but I've heard that he's made some considerable progress at SMU this off season compared to last which was his first. His teams tend to score 7 TD's per game or more. But it should be interesting to find out if SMU demolishes teams at home but tends to tank on the road the way Hawaii often did when he coached there. Maybe it was local polynesian-Waikiki warrior mentality or the time zone difference that accounted for that. However, if he gets his spread rolling, that team is going to put up a lot of points, especially at home.
Let me lay this on you about SMU. I know Jones had success at Hawaii but the trip over there and all the diversions were an edge that he does not have at SMU. LY SMU was 119th in Rushing Off avging 41 yds a game. It gets worse, on Defense they were 118th in total defense giving up 480ypg and 115th in scoring defense giving up 38.2 ppg. OUCH! I know a lot of people think football players grow on trees in the state of Texas but there is a lot of competition to get them, in state and out of state schools alike. With the programs at TCU and Baylor getting more attention along with Texas, Texas Tech, Texas A & M, Houston, etc. it looks like SMU has hit rock bottom and that doesn't always mean there is no place to go but up, at least fast enough to suit Jones. A QB and a passing attack can't undo the burden that defense carries with it. That is three categories I mentioned above that only 8 teams in the whole country performed worse at. Not with a 10 ft pole for me.
Go Sooners
I keep mentioning So. Miss and if their defense improves they will be dangerous. Their schedule is doable. They were 31st in scoring offense (31 ppg) and 54th in scoring def (24.1 ppg) in 2008. So they stay on the right side most of the time. Like I said earlier I like Fedora and this year he will pull even more tricks out of the hat.
I keep mentioning So. Miss and if their defense improves they will be dangerous. Their schedule is doable. They were 31st in scoring offense (31 ppg) and 54th in scoring def (24.1 ppg) in 2008. So they stay on the right side most of the time. Like I said earlier I like Fedora and this year he will pull even more tricks out of the hat.
It will be interesting to see what June Jones does in his second season. I know he does like to get his receivers deep down the field as he preaches more of a vertical passing game. SMU didn't make a whole lot of progress in his first year. But I've heard his system isn't an easy one to just pick up overnight. So they could have a better grasp of it this season. I'll have to read up and see what they've done this spring.
Russ...I agree with you about SM..Something else about the 3 teams that I mentioned above. I think the team that I would give the strongest chance of the 3 to get to 8 ATS wins or more is Southern Miss. Unlike the other two who are coming off 8 wins or more seasons, this is a team coming off a 7 ATS win season and they'll be flying more under the radar than Ole Miss and Georgia Tech. In fact I just read and article in Sporting News today in an interview with Paul Johnson. And one of the concerns was will the other ACC teams be gunning more for GT this season based on last year's success. And something else that was brought up was will the defenses in the ACC be able to defend the option better the second time around. Johnson's answer was when he was at Navy they also played basically the same teams every year and had the same amount of success through his five years. But in my opinion the big difference is the speed of the ACC defenses compared to what Navy faced. Plus it looked to me like GT had to go to the air a little more often to move the ball as the season progressed. Luckily they had their 6-3 230 pound monster wideout Demaryius Thomas to lean on. He accounted for over half of their passing game. So they can't afford to get him hurt or they could be cooked. I'm also curious to see if Ole Miss can repeat their 8 ATS win season. My bet is they can based on the big improvement they made in the second half of the season. This should carry over. So of the 3 teams I would probably give GT the least chance of getting to 8 ATS wins or more. The question is will they have enough offense in an improved ACC to cover those spreads?
I've been very excited about Southern Miss, I thought they looked impressive for awhile, more than I expected, in their bowl game. They had a RS FR QB in a new system under Fedora that I was impressed with. Damion Fletcher is now going to be in his senior year and they have that FR WR 5* who is recovering ahead of schedule from the gruesome leg break. Their offense should be potent now as it progresses to Fedora's style, I think they can be a very very good surprise team.
Going along your list GoSooners I noticed a lot of the teams were my fade teams for 08 (and several I think you had too; Arkansas, Texas A&M, Michigan, Washington State), and I did very well against them and in unders for season totals. That being said, I've already earmarked several of these teams as early "play ons" for this year. One of my favorites is Arkansas, they likely won't have a returning QB with Ryan Mallet starting this year (although Nathaniel Dick didn't too bad IIRC). Micheal Smith, the small RB was electric and Arkansas has had a few good recruiting classes to put it all together. I suspect them to take a big leap forward in their second year after they closed out a largely dissapointing season last year very well.
Some other teams I like to make big jumps are Baylor, Texas A&M, Duke, Michigan, So. Miss and GTech/Ole Miss/Nebraska/Houston will continue to improve on their good seasons last year.
Going along your list GoSooners I noticed a lot of the teams were my fade teams for 08 (and several I think you had too; Arkansas, Texas A&M, Michigan, Washington State), and I did very well against them and in unders for season totals. That being said, I've already earmarked several of these teams as early "play ons" for this year. One of my favorites is Arkansas, they likely won't have a returning QB with Ryan Mallet starting this year (although Nathaniel Dick didn't too bad IIRC). Micheal Smith, the small RB was electric and Arkansas has had a few good recruiting classes to put it all together. I suspect them to take a big leap forward in their second year after they closed out a largely dissapointing season last year very well.
Some other teams I like to make big jumps are Baylor, Texas A&M, Duke, Michigan, So. Miss and GTech/Ole Miss/Nebraska/Houston will continue to improve on their good seasons last year.
I have worn the west coast guys slick with this one but LY Arizona was 33rd in total offense (402YPG) and 16th in scoring offense (37PPG). On defense they were 24th in total defense (313ypg) and 33rd in scoring defense (21.3ppg). That is my kind of balance. I know Tuitama is gone and a lot of west coast guys don't like Mike Stoops. Personally, I think they return enough fire power on offense even with a new QB and their defense might as Stoops himself put it "have a chance to be something special". Always a vey cometitive team and they appear to have been hitting the weights as there were a lot comments from some who attended the spring practices and games that the players look more fit than usual. Guys like GoSooners and myself and seen what Mike Stoops is capable of. I would not give up on him yet.
Russ...Off of this list of first year coaches that your were kind enough to post, none of these teams qualified under all 4 traits. However the one trait that you wouldn't expect many of these teams to have is coming off a .500 season or better season since most of the reasons that coaches leave is their poor win/loss records. So I consider having a .500 season the year before more important for second year coaches than first year coaches who are most likely bringing a whole new system to the table anyway. Here are the teams who qualified under every trait but win/losses:
Auburn
Tennessee
San Diego State
Syracuse
Toledo
Utah State
Wyoming
Now the question is how much of an upgrade will it be for the new coaches coming in. I would rather see a coach come in who was taking a place of a coach who was fired rather than trying to take the place of a successful coach who quit or moved on to another school. For instance the Ball State coach may not be easy to replace. So I would tend to write off this team having another great year under a new coach and system.
GoSooners
I have decided on my top five under the radar go with teams.
So. Miss, Illinois, Arizona, Miss St, and LSU. I would have Michigan there but if they have early success they will get run up the flag pole by the public. LSU may not appear to be an under the radar team but I don't think the jury will be out until after they play Florida. If they win that game that will change that scenario. Wyoming is right up there because they have a decent defense and no offense (119th in scoring offense LY), that is a stat than can be easily improved upon.
I have crunched so many numbers lately that I am going to take a break with my research. I will continue to monitor the forum every day. I have completed a (2) page breakdown sheet that has all the data on (2) 8 1/2" x 11" pages and contains 2008 national rankings in rushing offense, passing offense, total offense, scoring offense, TO margain, rushing defense, passing defense, total defense, and scoring defense all layed out side by side in columns. It also lists returning starts on off and def. I am hesitant to just put in on here carte blance. I do not mind giving it away to members who contribute but I hate to just put it out there and give away something that was time consuming and exhausting to complete. It ranks all 120 teams in all those categories.
Before I release it I would appreciate some input from some of you guys on when, how, and where to post this breakdown sheet. I don't know if you have seen SoonerBS's post on the Randizzle thread but I would just as soon eat liver as have him get one of these sheets. Please get back to me. I live in OKC so I could somehow get you one to proof read and get your input before releasing it. I would do the same for Conan, Ducks, and a few others. Anyone that is interested drop me a line.
I have decided on my top five under the radar go with teams.
So. Miss, Illinois, Arizona, Miss St, and LSU. I would have Michigan there but if they have early success they will get run up the flag pole by the public. LSU may not appear to be an under the radar team but I don't think the jury will be out until after they play Florida. If they win that game that will change that scenario. Wyoming is right up there because they have a decent defense and no offense (119th in scoring offense LY), that is a stat than can be easily improved upon.
I have crunched so many numbers lately that I am going to take a break with my research. I will continue to monitor the forum every day. I have completed a (2) page breakdown sheet that has all the data on (2) 8 1/2" x 11" pages and contains 2008 national rankings in rushing offense, passing offense, total offense, scoring offense, TO margain, rushing defense, passing defense, total defense, and scoring defense all layed out side by side in columns. It also lists returning starts on off and def. I am hesitant to just put in on here carte blance. I do not mind giving it away to members who contribute but I hate to just put it out there and give away something that was time consuming and exhausting to complete. It ranks all 120 teams in all those categories.
Before I release it I would appreciate some input from some of you guys on when, how, and where to post this breakdown sheet. I don't know if you have seen SoonerBS's post on the Randizzle thread but I would just as soon eat liver as have him get one of these sheets. Please get back to me. I live in OKC so I could somehow get you one to proof read and get your input before releasing it. I would do the same for Conan, Ducks, and a few others. Anyone that is interested drop me a line.
Russ...With the exception of the numbers of starters and starts coming back for each team every season, I'm not much of a numbers man from the season before. I pretty much wipe the slate clean when the season starts as far as teams stats from the year before go and my numbers begin on week one... I usually have a general idea of what a team did last season and what to semi-expect from them the next season. And that has always been enough for me. Everybody does things different. And although I don't use this method I'm sure there are plenty here that do. And if you want to trade info with any poster in particular here without the whole RX knowing about it I've found that the PM (personal message) feature is the way to go. I use this feature all the time year around.
