Guru's Golden Picks: CFL Week 9

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You play... to win... the game
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Thank goodness for this most recent TD... I was starting to wonder if I was ever gonna get it... turns out this night is gonna be a massive push around the board pretty much due to the fact that BC is burning Calgary on the ground and I'm not likely getting my 2nd half over... So a small profit tonight. But for now, off to work... here's to a couple TDs late on.
 

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Just realized that I'm a week ahead of myself... I called this the week 9 thread... guess that makes next week the week 9.1 thread... anyway....

I didn't see the last approximately 6 minutes of this game because of work, but I feel quite fortunate that the fight I estimated the Stamps to have in them was still there throughout the game. Now if they had only held onto the football in the 1st half... I still think this team can catch some real fire and maybe crash Edmonton's party in the West... Wouldn't that be something... seeing a playoffs of Toronto/Ottawa and Calgary/BC??? BC would be like -200 to win the Grey Cup without the playoffs starting...

There's no doubt in my mind any longer that the Lions are the best team in the CFL, hands down. I really believe that the 2nd best team from what I've seen is still Montreal, closely followed by Edmonton, then a healthy Toronto team... But like last year when we saw Hamilton make a nice little run to finish above .500, I think that's this year's Stamps team. Looking at what this team has already played and what it has left to play, 10 wins in my eyes isn't all that impossible. HOWEVER, the Stamps MUST perform well in these next 4 weeks, bringing home at least 4 points to legit have a shot at crashing the playoff party... Next 4 are @ Montreal, @ Toronto, vs. Edmonton, and @ Edmonton... and considering this game with BC??? Brutal 5 game stretch. But man, starting week 13, if there's anything left in the tank, the Stamps can go on a huge run of games...

@ Hamilton, Ottawa, Montreal (well needed bye), Hamilton, @ Sask, @ Winnepeg, vs. Edmonton...

No joke... but if the Stamps find a way to take even 1 of these next 4 and then 5 of these listed 6 above, that's 18 points headed into the game with Edmonton... and who knows what Edmonton has coming to them.... 10 points right now, but still 3 games with Calgary, Toronto twice, BC twice, and Montreal... things can get sticky for Ricky Ray and gang if they're not careful...

Anyway, that tirade on the Stamps aside, here's what we've grabbed thus far this week...

Montreal (+13)/BC:Cal o 45/Ham:win o 40 (1.5 units -110)

BC/Calgary over 55.5 W (+2 units)
BC/Calgary over 27.5 1H W (+1.04 units)

Calgary (ml) vs. BC L (-0.5 units)
Calgary/BC over 28 2nd half W (+1 unit)
Calgary to have more gross rushing yards over BC L (-1 unit)

Montreal (ml) @ Toronto W (+1.92 units)

Montreal @ Toronto over 25 2nd half L (-1.65 units)

So with needing over 40 in tonight's crapfest to secure a 3 team teaser, I've successfully gone a measly 4-3 in record, but a solid 2.81 units in the right direction this weekend.

ATS: 10-6 (+13.08 units)
Totals: 7-4 (+3.76 units)
Team Totals: 9-4 (+5.53 units)
Moneylines: 8-7 (+4.62 units)
Props: 0-2 (-2 units)
Teasers: 0-1 (-1 unit)
1st half/Quarter: 13-9 (+4.40 units)
2nd half: 11-7 (+11.22 units)
Overall: 58-40 (+39.61 units)

I'll mull over another play in this game tonight, but until we know who's starting at QB for the Bombers, I'm content to sit with over 40 and pray it's Glenn or Michna and NOT Tee Martin... and if it IS Tee Martin, I'll be middling this and likely unloading on the Ti-Cats to break the losing streak up against the only team that might be lowlier than they are right now.
 

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In case anyone isn't aware as to what I'm referring to here, I backed the Nashville AFL team from game 1, only to constantly get screwed by them the entire first half of the season. It came to be a time that they were playing the worst team in the league on the road, and they had a line very similar to this. I played on Nashville for 5 units and claimed that it would be the last time I bet on this Nashville team if they didn't win outright that day. They went down early, but pitched a shutout in the 2nd half (shut out Michael Bishop's team of all people), went on to win, and then went on a tear the rest of the season.

Hamilton Tiger Cats: I'm tired of you! I thought you were going to be good this season, and you have done nothing but burn me since your week 1 cover against Montreal. I'm giving you ONE MORE CHANCE tonight, and if you don't at least cover tonight, I'm not betting on you until you can prove that your team is anything more than a pile of crap. You're playing WINNIPEG for crying out loud.

Okay, maybe they got the memo... Hope so anyway...

Hamilton (+0.5) @ Winnipeg 1st quarter (0.5 units -115)
Hamilton (+3) @ Winnipeg (1 unit +108)
Hamilton (ml) @ Winnipeg (0.5 units +162)
Hamilton/Winnipeg over 49.5 (1.5 units -110)

I also have that teaser that needs this game to reach over 40 points to cash as listed before.

Ti-Cats, you'd better show up tonight. It's not a 5 unit play like Nashville was back in the AFL yesteryear, but this is seriously the last time this Hamilton team is eating my money in they don't cover. Please prove me right, and not a dope for backing you all season prior to this. It doesn't get any easier than this game tonight, particularly if they end up seeing Michna at QB at any point during the game. This Winnipeg team showed no heart at the end of the Toronto game, and it rubbed off on the team against Calgary, in a game they really should have been closer in for as poorly as Henry Burris played. I hope this team is still hung over from the lapse in Toronto and that the Ti-Cats will FINALLY come away victorious for the first time this season.
 

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Glenn definitely playing hurt... sprained thumb, but toughing it out. Michna is the backup just in case.

Danny Mac isn't playing tonight. Khari Jones is backing up Brady. In case there was any doubt, there's the info 5 minutes before kickoff.
 

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I just want to shoot myself listening to this game. Both of these teams are just making the most ridiculous mistakes. I'm waiting for the Bomber announcers to be like "if you're listening to this game, you have absolutely no life and nothing better to do because both of these teams are TERRIBLE."

0-0 at the end of the first, so I'm pretty luck to at least win that half unit... Bombers are 10 yards from 6 points, but my teaser and over are in big trouble if this quarter is any indicator. Brady sounds alright, but the team is making dumb mistakes... botched hand offs, objectionable conduct to take them out of FG range, bringing a missed FG out to about the 13 (I guess Suter bet on the Ti-Cats +0.5 in the 1st quarter too).... just dumb CFL mistakes by teams with no playoff hopes whatsoever at this point. Hope the 2nd quarter is better because this was just quite frankly boring.
 

You play... to win... the game
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I hate you Hamilton. I absolutely hate you... you're terrible. Seriously, I've counted 4 either time count or procedure penalties on 2nd and short that end up being 2nd and longs. An objectionable conduct call to take them out of FG range on the first drive. Two dropped interceptions that could have been TDs. Two botched handoffs, one punt that should have gotten blocked, no less than 3 dropped passes, 3 turnovers, and getting run off the field right now.... and most importantly, no points.

14-0 Bombers with 4:15 left in the 2nd... just praying I reach 41 points in this game... and it might take 41 Bomber points....
 

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14-0 at the half... I'm done cashing things tonight... the rest of these are losers... Hamilton won't score an offensive TD in this game I don't believe unless it's created by special teams or Winnipeg's offense sucking...
 

You play... to win... the game
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Can't believe I actually got to the over in this one... and turned out to be quite comfortably too. But true to my word, no more betting on the Ti-Cats until they win a game. For the game, a solid 3-2 (+2 units), turning the week into a successful 7-5 (+4.81 units) on the weekend. Looking forward to next week's action.
Hamilton (+0.5) @ Winnipeg 1st quarter W (+0.5 units)
Hamilton (+3) @ Winnipeg L (-1 unit)

Hamilton (ml) @ Winnipeg L (-0.5 units)
Hamilton/Winnipeg over 49.5 W (+1.5 units)

Montreal (+13)/BC:Cal o 45/Ham:win o 40 W (+1.5 units)

BC/Calgary over 55.5 W (+2 units)
BC/Calgary over 27.5 1H W (+1.04 units)
Calgary (ml) vs. BC L (-0.5 units)
Calgary/BC over 28 2nd half W (+1 unit)
Calgary to have more gross rushing yards over BC L (-1 unit)

Montreal (ml) @ Toronto W (+1.92 units)
Montreal @ Toronto over 25 2nd half L (-1.65 units)


ATS: 10-7 (+12.08 units)
Totals: 8-4 (+5.26 units)
Team Totals: 9-4 (+5.53 units)
Moneylines: 8-8 (+4.12 units)
Props: 0-2 (-2 units)
Teasers: 1-1 (+0.50 unit)
1st half/Quarter: 14-9 (+4.90 units)
2nd half: 11-7 (+11.22 units)
Overall: 61-42 (+41.61 units)

--AFLGuru:toast:
 

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