Guru's Golden Picks: Arena Week 8

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You play... to win... the game
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Absolutely unreal with these second halfs today... so Austin pays off, but the 2nd halfers fall flat thanks to poor kicking on our sides. Unreal. BS. I refuse to watch the end of this Vegas game now... if it goes to OT, more power to Vegas... but I'm done watching and throwing it in the loss column so I can go to bed.

Austin (+8.5 and ml) W (+5.95 units)
Orlando/Georgia over 48 2nd half L (-3 units)
Las Vegas (-4) @ Arizona 2nd half L (-3 units)

For the day.... 1-2 (-0.05 units)
Dallas/LA over 104 W (+3.81 units)
San Jose (-14.5) vs. Grand Rapids (+2.70 units)
Grand Rapids / San Jose over 114.5 (+3.95 units)
Dallas/LA under 53 2nd half L (-2 units)


For the week...

Record: 4-4
Net: +8.39 units

YTD
Against the opening line: 21-7
Against that same closing line: 17-9-1

Sides Record: 14-9 (+23.97 units)
Totals Record: 16-9 (+19.86 units)
Parlays: 1-2 (+0.55 units)
2nd half: 3-6 (-6.54 units)
Teasers: 0-1 (-3 units)
Props: 1-3 (-2.48 units)

Composite Record

YTD: 35-30 (53.85%)
Net: +35.37 units

Units Wagered: 175 units
Units Won: 35.37 units
Net %: 20.21% profit per unit wagered
 

You play... to win... the game
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TD screws me unless we go to OT somehow... but better luck tomorrow I guess. Incredibly bad luck tonight. Incredibly.
 

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Penalty on AZ after the TD unsports. If AZ gets an OOB kickoff from LV they will not start at the 20; they get backed up on the penalty.
 

You play... to win... the game
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Lol... figures... LV scores 1 more TD than Arz does in the 2nd half and gets the ball first and only outscores them by 3... I'll stick around for your report on the last two seconds I suppose.
 

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Burley takes kick and falls down at AZ 1. :01 left. Here comes Brenner. If they actually kick it will be from the 1/2 yard line. This would make Clay Rush say "screw this!"
 

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Brenner staying out there. Another timeout called. FAKE. Stanford-Cal play, one lateral works, next one too, but big bubba guy who was out there I don't know why is tackled, LV WINS!
 

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AFL_Guru,

Just stopped by, and not looking to cause problems, but I was hoping you could explain the differences in different parts of your record, because it's a great record, and I just was confused by some things.

"YTD
Against the opening line: 21-7
Against that same closing line: 17-9-1"

First one is 28 games, second one is 27 games. It seems like you included a push on the second one, so it doesn't look like a push would be the difference.


"Sides Record: 14-9 (+23.97 units)
Totals Record: 16-9 (+19.86 units)"


This adds up to 48 plays, way different than the 27 or 28.

Is it that the first numbers are just picks you make right away, and the second set includes the additional plays that are added during the week?

Again, just trying to figure out what the numbers mean, and if you've explained it before, I apologize since I'm not around much.


Good Luck,
Bart
 

You play... to win... the game
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Bart--

Hmm... so you're right about my discrepancy on opening line vs. closing line. In all likelihood it's a push I forgot to add in, but I'll check the records and fix it on today's recap.
My sides and totals are all of my bets. Roughly half of my bets are made on the closing line, or a mid-week line (like an Olympic line). All of the "opening line bets" are made within an hour of the lines opening on Pinnacle on Tuesday afternoon. Anything else is not considered in that. So the totals and sides records are there for a holistic record because not all of my bets are made on the opening line.

Hope this helps. Gonna step out really quick... will be back probably around 12:15, leaving me a bit late for the game... but I'll give the updates on the Tampa game once I get back.
 

You play... to win... the game
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Sweet! I come back and Tampa's completing a TD... 6-0 Storm after a couple minutes, pending PAT
 

You play... to win... the game
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Tommy and Degenerate... I'm assuming you all are here? Anyone else?
 

You play... to win... the game
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TD Philly... 7-6 PAT pending 10:30 left in the quarter. Nice start for over.
 

You play... to win... the game
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Wide left... what a surprise, Philly misses a PAT... 7-6 Storm 5 minutes in.
 

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Blown coverage by Philly = 15 Tampa yards... Storm on the move quickly at the Phi 19
 

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