arty:Another pretty solid day... Ryan Vena solidfying our cover with two pick 6s in the 4th. Fell short of the 2nd half over, but still a nice day all things aside.
Tampa (-7) @ Philly L (-5 units)
Tampa/Philly over 102.5 W (+2.86 units)
Tampa/Philly under 56.5 2nd half W (+2.38 units)
Colorado -9.5 vs. Columbus W (+4.76 units)
Colorado/Columbus under 106.5 W (+1.91 units)
Colorado/Columbus over 50 2nd L (-2 units)
For the day...
4-2 (+4.91 units)
Added to...
Austin (+8.5 and ml) W (+5.95 units)
Orlando/Georgia over 48 2nd half L (-3 units)
Las Vegas (-4) @ Arizona 2nd half L (-3 units)
Dallas/LA over 104 W (+3.81 units)
San Jose (-14.5) vs. Grand Rapids (+2.70 units)
Grand Rapids / San Jose over 114.5 (+3.95 units)
Dallas/LA under 53 2nd half L (-2 units)
For the week...
Record: 8-6
Net: +13.3 units... hell of a week!
YTD
Against the opening line: 23-8*
Against that same closing line: 20-10-1
Sides Record: 15-10 (+23.73 units)
Totals Record: 18-9 (+24.63 units)
Parlays: 1-2 (+0.55 units)
2nd half: 4-7 (-6.16 units)... we're improving this real soon... no worries
Teasers: 0-1 (-3 units)
Props: 1-3 (-2.48 units)
Composite Record
YTD: 39-32 (54.93%)
Net: +40.28 units
Units Wagered: 194.5 units
Units Won: 40.28 units
Net %: 20.71% profit per unit wagered
*Bart: I was one too many in the win column on the opening line. Must have added it twice along the way. The current records are all correct.
Back to work Tuesday.
--AFLGuru:toast:
Tampa (-7) @ Philly L (-5 units)
Tampa/Philly over 102.5 W (+2.86 units)
Tampa/Philly under 56.5 2nd half W (+2.38 units)
Colorado -9.5 vs. Columbus W (+4.76 units)
Colorado/Columbus under 106.5 W (+1.91 units)
Colorado/Columbus over 50 2nd L (-2 units)
For the day...
4-2 (+4.91 units)
Added to...
Austin (+8.5 and ml) W (+5.95 units)
Orlando/Georgia over 48 2nd half L (-3 units)
Las Vegas (-4) @ Arizona 2nd half L (-3 units)
Dallas/LA over 104 W (+3.81 units)
San Jose (-14.5) vs. Grand Rapids (+2.70 units)
Grand Rapids / San Jose over 114.5 (+3.95 units)
Dallas/LA under 53 2nd half L (-2 units)
For the week...
Record: 8-6
Net: +13.3 units... hell of a week!
YTD
Against the opening line: 23-8*
Against that same closing line: 20-10-1
Sides Record: 15-10 (+23.73 units)
Totals Record: 18-9 (+24.63 units)
Parlays: 1-2 (+0.55 units)
2nd half: 4-7 (-6.16 units)... we're improving this real soon... no worries
Teasers: 0-1 (-3 units)
Props: 1-3 (-2.48 units)
Composite Record
YTD: 39-32 (54.93%)
Net: +40.28 units
Units Wagered: 194.5 units
Units Won: 40.28 units
Net %: 20.71% profit per unit wagered
*Bart: I was one too many in the win column on the opening line. Must have added it twice along the way. The current records are all correct.
Back to work Tuesday.
--AFLGuru:toast:
Team win totals reviews half way into the season...
Arizona (1-7) under 10 wins: Bold and green for a very good reason... Arizona clinched for us this weekend! The 1-7 Rattlers are a mess... knew they wouldn't be as good as always... but didn't think they'd be THIS bad...
Austin (3-5) under 6 wins: W against New York leaves us kinda hanging on this bet with a push likely on the horizon for us... But some things really look up for us in terms of this bet... Next four games are all against the other division opponents, which should... and I repeat... should... leave the Wranglers at 4-8 at best. After that it's at Arizona, at Columbus, and meetings with Orlando and New Orleans. Consider that New Orleans and Orlando will both be fighting hard for playoff births and positioning at that point and 3-5 right now for Austin doesn't look too terrible for us.
Columbus (1-6) under 7 wins: Practically in the win column now. Columbus has gotta win 6 of their last 9 to screw us over, and without looking at the schedule, that ain't happening... moving on...
Dallas (6-2) under 6 wins: In red for a reason... the Desperadoes are clearly the shock of the AFL and have already reached the 6 needed... Last win might not come this week, but they still play too many dips to lose out now.
Los Angeles (4-3) under 9 wins: Looking up for us after Dallas pulled off the big win in LA. Another big one for us as the Avengers take on Tampa at home this week. Nasty schedule awaits the Avengers, but not nearly as bad as Austin's. If they beat Tampa, they then travel to the Jungle before coming home to face New York. Home games against Chicago, Arizona, and Vegas await after that, only the Arizona game of which should prove to be easy enough. The roadies are mostly cupcakes, travelling to Nashville, Grand Rapids, and San Jose. Though LA looks a lot worse now than in, say week 4 or 5, I wouldn't say we're in the greatest shape with our o/u yet. A three game skid here for the Avengers is probably in the cards... and with them at 5-5 hopefully at best after 10 games, I'd feel a bit better considering there's still a trip to San Jose on the horizon... and if there's one game that the Saberkitties have circled on their schedule, that's the one.
Nashville (1-6) over 5.5 wins: I'm not giving up hope on the Kardiak Kats yet... Though with just one win to their credit thus far, and that being to lowly Columbus, there's still some games to look forward to for the Kats. Both these next two are winnable for them... hosting Arizona and at Grand Rapids. Pull those off and we're looking a lot better. We're gonna need a couple big upsets during the season, but consider that the holistic schedule gives them three winnable games (Arizona and GR twice) and then a bunch of home games to play spoiler on. Though @ San Jose, @ Dallas and @ Colorado is going to be way over their heads, hosting Chicago, LA, and Tampa might not be. These Kats played a good game going into their bye week against Colorado and have stuck in games all year. Should they beat Arizona this week, Coach Sperdeuto will realize that his team isn't THAT far out of the playoff hunt in their conference, though it sure looks like that loss to Colorado put them out of it. But right now, Chicago at 4-4 is sitting pretty, and they're only 2 back in the loss column to them with plenty of time left. Gotta get their acts together soon though.
New Orleans (6-2) over 9 wins: This one looks pretty banked with the VooDoo at 6 already. But upon further inspection, this might be more difficult to achieve than it looks. New Orleans has 4 cupcakes on the schedule left (two with Austin, @ GR, vs. Columbus)... but if they slip in any of those, the games remaining are difficult from here on out. Georgia, @ Tampa, Colorado, @ Orlando with the Preds off of a bye week... a win this week hosting Georgia is a must if New Orleans wants the division crown and would make me feel much better with the pansy 3 game stretch coming. This team could still very easily win 11 and get left out of the playoffs because of the losses to Orlando and Georgia early.
Orlando (5-3) over 9.5 wins: At 5-3, the Preds look to be right on pace, right? Upon further examination though, this 5-3 mark is remarkable considering the games played. NO cupcakes have come up yet on Orlando's schedule, except arguably Arizona. The Preds are a game back in the division and will almost certainly benefit by picking up a game on either New Orleans or Georgia this weekend when GEO plays NO and Orlando hosts Austin. Orlando, just like New Orleans, knows that it might take 12 to get in just through the division, with 4-3 putting you in 4th place, but only a game back in the loss column. Preds have two must wins in a row hosting Austin and LA, then travel to Tampa, where the goal is to simply lose by less than 15 points (for tiebreaker purposes with the Storm). Two more games the Preds have gotta at least split at home after that, hosting New York and Georgia (the Georgia game likely being the absolute must win). Two roadies to Austin and Philly after that which SHOULD be easy enough... but ask New York and Tampa how they liked their road trips to these locals this weekend... Finally, with the Preds likely at 10-5 will face New Orleans off of a bye week in a game that will likely decide who wins the division vs. who finishes third and likely out of the playoffs.
The league holistically...
In the National Conference (East and South) we have a resurging Austin team trying to cludder this mix a bit further... 5-3 Orlando and 4-3 Tampa are on the outside looking in right now, as Dallas and New York try to settle that division. The problem here says that we might have 5 or 6 teams finish with 11 wins if everyone holds serve against the crappy teams. New York and Dallas both play each other, but after that, there aren't too many tough games left. Both teams could easily go 11-5, which would leave New York in and Dallas waiting on tie breakers... Georgia has the real leg up in the division right now, having beaten both New Orleans and Orlando... the problem is that they still travel to all three major division foes and host Tampa. These 4 games will test the character of the Force and show whether they're for real. I believe New Orleans is getting into the playoffs. I think they're the team that's finishing with 12 wins, clinching them home field throughout the playoffs. But a run by Orlando can ice that, as the Voodoo have to either finish in front of Orlando, or beat the Preds by more than 11 to hold the tiebreaker over them... good luck with that IN ORLANDO. Tampa can still be dangerous down the stretch, especially if they knock off both Orlando and New Orleans at home, but I don't think the Storm have it this year. Too tough of a division and SOMEONE's gotta stay home... I'd say New Orleans (12-4) and Orlando (11-5) get in from the South and New York (12-4) and Dallas (11-5) from the East. Tampa and Georgia will both get to at least 10 wins, one probably to 11... and get left out...
American Conference... Wide the hell open still... No one's out yet I don't believe. Colorado appears to have a firm grasp on their playoff spot, and with 11 or 12 wins should emerge the #1 seed in the conference. After that it's anyone's guess. San Jose is likely to pull away from the dying west, as LV and LA look vulnerable at best and SJ will probably hold the tiebreaker on both teams. That being said, Chicago looks pretty bad at 4-4 right now, but still have the talent to beat anyone in the AFL. Don't discount a 1-6 Nashville or Grand Rapids making some noise, especially if either GR sweeps Nashville or the other way around. 8-7 into the last week is gonna put you right there for a wild card in the conference. Question is who's gonna come out... I've got Colorado and San Jose in for certain... I think Vegas sneaks a wild card... and after that, it's anyone's guess... I'd venture to say Chicago, but no one... and I mean no one, including 1-7 Arizona, is out of it yet... 1-6 New York won their division last year... don't discredit the Rattlers, as they will get up big for the two with San Jose coming later in the year. If SJ goes down again this year, it'll be to the Ratts.
So there you have it once again... my halfway, surely to be changed with every Southern Division game predictions... When futures betting opens back up, Colorado, Dallas, and New York would be the three teams I'd bank on, because at least two of them are gonna be favorites to make the semifinals, and at least one of them will. Anything better than 12 to 1 on any of these teams is a steal, though a final of Saberkitties vs. southern division winner is also very likely (since the Southern Division winner likely hosts both games leading up to the Arena Bowl and home field advantage is HUGE in the postseason).
Cheers as always!
--AFLGuru:toast:
Arizona (1-7) under 10 wins: Bold and green for a very good reason... Arizona clinched for us this weekend! The 1-7 Rattlers are a mess... knew they wouldn't be as good as always... but didn't think they'd be THIS bad...
Austin (3-5) under 6 wins: W against New York leaves us kinda hanging on this bet with a push likely on the horizon for us... But some things really look up for us in terms of this bet... Next four games are all against the other division opponents, which should... and I repeat... should... leave the Wranglers at 4-8 at best. After that it's at Arizona, at Columbus, and meetings with Orlando and New Orleans. Consider that New Orleans and Orlando will both be fighting hard for playoff births and positioning at that point and 3-5 right now for Austin doesn't look too terrible for us.
Columbus (1-6) under 7 wins: Practically in the win column now. Columbus has gotta win 6 of their last 9 to screw us over, and without looking at the schedule, that ain't happening... moving on...
Dallas (6-2) under 6 wins: In red for a reason... the Desperadoes are clearly the shock of the AFL and have already reached the 6 needed... Last win might not come this week, but they still play too many dips to lose out now.
Los Angeles (4-3) under 9 wins: Looking up for us after Dallas pulled off the big win in LA. Another big one for us as the Avengers take on Tampa at home this week. Nasty schedule awaits the Avengers, but not nearly as bad as Austin's. If they beat Tampa, they then travel to the Jungle before coming home to face New York. Home games against Chicago, Arizona, and Vegas await after that, only the Arizona game of which should prove to be easy enough. The roadies are mostly cupcakes, travelling to Nashville, Grand Rapids, and San Jose. Though LA looks a lot worse now than in, say week 4 or 5, I wouldn't say we're in the greatest shape with our o/u yet. A three game skid here for the Avengers is probably in the cards... and with them at 5-5 hopefully at best after 10 games, I'd feel a bit better considering there's still a trip to San Jose on the horizon... and if there's one game that the Saberkitties have circled on their schedule, that's the one.
Nashville (1-6) over 5.5 wins: I'm not giving up hope on the Kardiak Kats yet... Though with just one win to their credit thus far, and that being to lowly Columbus, there's still some games to look forward to for the Kats. Both these next two are winnable for them... hosting Arizona and at Grand Rapids. Pull those off and we're looking a lot better. We're gonna need a couple big upsets during the season, but consider that the holistic schedule gives them three winnable games (Arizona and GR twice) and then a bunch of home games to play spoiler on. Though @ San Jose, @ Dallas and @ Colorado is going to be way over their heads, hosting Chicago, LA, and Tampa might not be. These Kats played a good game going into their bye week against Colorado and have stuck in games all year. Should they beat Arizona this week, Coach Sperdeuto will realize that his team isn't THAT far out of the playoff hunt in their conference, though it sure looks like that loss to Colorado put them out of it. But right now, Chicago at 4-4 is sitting pretty, and they're only 2 back in the loss column to them with plenty of time left. Gotta get their acts together soon though.
New Orleans (6-2) over 9 wins: This one looks pretty banked with the VooDoo at 6 already. But upon further inspection, this might be more difficult to achieve than it looks. New Orleans has 4 cupcakes on the schedule left (two with Austin, @ GR, vs. Columbus)... but if they slip in any of those, the games remaining are difficult from here on out. Georgia, @ Tampa, Colorado, @ Orlando with the Preds off of a bye week... a win this week hosting Georgia is a must if New Orleans wants the division crown and would make me feel much better with the pansy 3 game stretch coming. This team could still very easily win 11 and get left out of the playoffs because of the losses to Orlando and Georgia early.
Orlando (5-3) over 9.5 wins: At 5-3, the Preds look to be right on pace, right? Upon further examination though, this 5-3 mark is remarkable considering the games played. NO cupcakes have come up yet on Orlando's schedule, except arguably Arizona. The Preds are a game back in the division and will almost certainly benefit by picking up a game on either New Orleans or Georgia this weekend when GEO plays NO and Orlando hosts Austin. Orlando, just like New Orleans, knows that it might take 12 to get in just through the division, with 4-3 putting you in 4th place, but only a game back in the loss column. Preds have two must wins in a row hosting Austin and LA, then travel to Tampa, where the goal is to simply lose by less than 15 points (for tiebreaker purposes with the Storm). Two more games the Preds have gotta at least split at home after that, hosting New York and Georgia (the Georgia game likely being the absolute must win). Two roadies to Austin and Philly after that which SHOULD be easy enough... but ask New York and Tampa how they liked their road trips to these locals this weekend... Finally, with the Preds likely at 10-5 will face New Orleans off of a bye week in a game that will likely decide who wins the division vs. who finishes third and likely out of the playoffs.
The league holistically...
In the National Conference (East and South) we have a resurging Austin team trying to cludder this mix a bit further... 5-3 Orlando and 4-3 Tampa are on the outside looking in right now, as Dallas and New York try to settle that division. The problem here says that we might have 5 or 6 teams finish with 11 wins if everyone holds serve against the crappy teams. New York and Dallas both play each other, but after that, there aren't too many tough games left. Both teams could easily go 11-5, which would leave New York in and Dallas waiting on tie breakers... Georgia has the real leg up in the division right now, having beaten both New Orleans and Orlando... the problem is that they still travel to all three major division foes and host Tampa. These 4 games will test the character of the Force and show whether they're for real. I believe New Orleans is getting into the playoffs. I think they're the team that's finishing with 12 wins, clinching them home field throughout the playoffs. But a run by Orlando can ice that, as the Voodoo have to either finish in front of Orlando, or beat the Preds by more than 11 to hold the tiebreaker over them... good luck with that IN ORLANDO. Tampa can still be dangerous down the stretch, especially if they knock off both Orlando and New Orleans at home, but I don't think the Storm have it this year. Too tough of a division and SOMEONE's gotta stay home... I'd say New Orleans (12-4) and Orlando (11-5) get in from the South and New York (12-4) and Dallas (11-5) from the East. Tampa and Georgia will both get to at least 10 wins, one probably to 11... and get left out...
American Conference... Wide the hell open still... No one's out yet I don't believe. Colorado appears to have a firm grasp on their playoff spot, and with 11 or 12 wins should emerge the #1 seed in the conference. After that it's anyone's guess. San Jose is likely to pull away from the dying west, as LV and LA look vulnerable at best and SJ will probably hold the tiebreaker on both teams. That being said, Chicago looks pretty bad at 4-4 right now, but still have the talent to beat anyone in the AFL. Don't discount a 1-6 Nashville or Grand Rapids making some noise, especially if either GR sweeps Nashville or the other way around. 8-7 into the last week is gonna put you right there for a wild card in the conference. Question is who's gonna come out... I've got Colorado and San Jose in for certain... I think Vegas sneaks a wild card... and after that, it's anyone's guess... I'd venture to say Chicago, but no one... and I mean no one, including 1-7 Arizona, is out of it yet... 1-6 New York won their division last year... don't discredit the Rattlers, as they will get up big for the two with San Jose coming later in the year. If SJ goes down again this year, it'll be to the Ratts.
So there you have it once again... my halfway, surely to be changed with every Southern Division game predictions... When futures betting opens back up, Colorado, Dallas, and New York would be the three teams I'd bank on, because at least two of them are gonna be favorites to make the semifinals, and at least one of them will. Anything better than 12 to 1 on any of these teams is a steal, though a final of Saberkitties vs. southern division winner is also very likely (since the Southern Division winner likely hosts both games leading up to the Arena Bowl and home field advantage is HUGE in the postseason).
Cheers as always!
--AFLGuru:toast:
I had:
CHI over 8.5 -105 2 units Looking weak
LA under 9.5 -105 2 units Must go 6-3 from here to beat me
LV over 9 -120 1 unit Heading towards a push
AUS under 6 -105 1 unit Heading towards a push also but tough schedule
NAS under 5.5 +152 Looking good
NO over 8 AND under 9 -105 Not gonna get a push and a win
And my favorite:
NAS to NOT make the playoffs -125 2 units Looking best of all
CHI over 8.5 -105 2 units Looking weak
LA under 9.5 -105 2 units Must go 6-3 from here to beat me
LV over 9 -120 1 unit Heading towards a push
AUS under 6 -105 1 unit Heading towards a push also but tough schedule
NAS under 5.5 +152 Looking good
NO over 8 AND under 9 -105 Not gonna get a push and a win
And my favorite:
NAS to NOT make the playoffs -125 2 units Looking best of all
I had New Orleans at 8 myself... 9 for board purposes because I posted about a week later. Got +100 on it too. Nashville's not done yet... two with Grand Rapids can change ANYONE's season into an over season. lol... Hell, only two back as well. Can 8-8 really get into the playoffs in this damn conference?
8-8 may get you HOME FIELD! Seriously, there will be 2 teams in the National Conference that don't get in but should, and 2 in the American that do but shouldn't, due to the format.
It's amazing that there are 4 one-win teams after 8 weeks, and even more amazing that these were the 4 teams that kicked off the season by playing on opening night. Hard to believe that on the night of January 28 we saw 2 of the 4 wins that AZ, GR, CMB, and NAS have COMBINED.
It's amazing that there are 4 one-win teams after 8 weeks, and even more amazing that these were the 4 teams that kicked off the season by playing on opening night. Hard to believe that on the night of January 28 we saw 2 of the 4 wins that AZ, GR, CMB, and NAS have COMBINED.
Yeah, I guess now that you mention it that DOES suck... great...
Arizona's win @ Grand Rapids
Nashville's win @ Columbus
Grand Rapids' win vs. Austin
Columbus' win vs. Chicago
NOW you know why I'm fading the hell out of these guys....
I don't know what's scarier... the fact that Arizona is 1-7, or the fact that that win isn't in the Snake Pit... This team doesn't have a home win half way through the season... now THAT'S scary.
Lol... all of those teams winning on opening night... But let's be real here Scott. If GR sweeps Nashville or Nashville sweeps GR we've got ourselves a new playoff contender in that damn conference. Both of those teams look like they can win games, but aren't pulling them out late. Nashville could just as easily be 4-3 as 1-6... They had Philly beat, kept NY close, had a shot versus Colorado and took a great rip at Vegas. This team is gonna compete this year and is going to pull at least 1 massive upset at home along the way... Just like Austin and that screwy arena did this past week.
So in conclusion... I still throw out Arizona to give them the respect that those vets deserve, but the other three... any time they play a GOOD team... throw it in the loss column more often than not. That San Jose / Grand Rapids game was easy 10% juice on all wagers. San Jose ain't losing to GR at home.
--AFLGuru
Arizona's win @ Grand Rapids
Nashville's win @ Columbus
Grand Rapids' win vs. Austin
Columbus' win vs. Chicago
NOW you know why I'm fading the hell out of these guys....
I don't know what's scarier... the fact that Arizona is 1-7, or the fact that that win isn't in the Snake Pit... This team doesn't have a home win half way through the season... now THAT'S scary.
Lol... all of those teams winning on opening night... But let's be real here Scott. If GR sweeps Nashville or Nashville sweeps GR we've got ourselves a new playoff contender in that damn conference. Both of those teams look like they can win games, but aren't pulling them out late. Nashville could just as easily be 4-3 as 1-6... They had Philly beat, kept NY close, had a shot versus Colorado and took a great rip at Vegas. This team is gonna compete this year and is going to pull at least 1 massive upset at home along the way... Just like Austin and that screwy arena did this past week.
So in conclusion... I still throw out Arizona to give them the respect that those vets deserve, but the other three... any time they play a GOOD team... throw it in the loss column more often than not. That San Jose / Grand Rapids game was easy 10% juice on all wagers. San Jose ain't losing to GR at home.
--AFLGuru
The thing about AZ is that they have lost 4 of the 7 in the last :30. COL, LA, TB, and now LV. Some of that HAS to be coaching and some bad luck. They came back to lead COL but lost at the end, if they get in the EZ on any of 6 tries inside the 5 vs. LA they likely win, TB and LV beat them on the last play. I think they go into NAS this week thinking "FINALLY A TEAM WE CAN BEAT AND NOT WORRY ABOUT THE LAST SECOND." They will be THINKING that; whether they can do it depends in my opinion on the new offense in NAS with a new coordinator, Murray back, McGriff and Fleshman joining Coleman and Hillery (when they are healthy). That looks like some potency on offense. We'll see if it happens.
GR didn't beat AUS, they beat CMB.
GR didn't beat AUS, they beat CMB.
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