Guru's Golden Picks: Arena Week 8

[AFLGuru]

Against the opening line: 18-7
Against that same closing line: 14-9-1

Sides Record: 12-9 (+15.32 units)
Totals Record: 14-9 (+13.21 units)... with GR/Chi SO close to being massive...
Parlays: 1-2 (+0.55 units)
2nd half: 3-3 (+1.46 units)
Teasers: 0-1 (-3 units)
Props: 1-3 (-2.48 units)

Composite Record

YTD: 31-27 (53.4%)
Net: +26.96 units

Units Wagered: 152.5 units
Units Won: 26.96 units
Net %: 17.68% profit per unit wagered

 

[AFLGuru]

Quick words on last week before I move on... Orlando had probably the worst offensive effort ever to score 60+ points in an AFL game. Hamilton played pretty crappy, but did just enough after a miserable first possession that somehow ended in 6, to keep the Voodoo from making a comeback. But let's face it. I don't care who's playing defense. Orlando started with the ball inside the Voodoo 15 SIX TIMES in the game. With me at QB and my three roommates at WR (who probably run an average of a 5.8 40...) we could have scored at least 40 like that... lol. Long of the short says we got lucky in the game, but it's pretty much what I figured would happen... except that I thought New Orleans was gonna be the team RECEIVING the onside kicks, not MAKING the onside kicks.

Important lesson learned from week 7 for me: Don't go against my gut. My gutshot is going to trump stats from here on out, as that was the winning ticket last week. Some things I saw in that San Jose team made me believe the game was going to be relatively low scoring against Philly, despite both teams really wanting to shoot it out. Can't really explain what it was... that's why they call it gutshot. I believe I've got a pretty good feeling for the game, and that should propel me to many good picks. Had I played the Dallas/Austin game, it would've been 2-0. But that being said, I'm glad I didn't reach for it because I ended up talking myself into the read in the first place.

Remember with the breaks: We got a fortunate break with Colorado... we got what was coming to us with Grand Rapids and the over. NO ONE, and I mean NO ONE could project Grand Rapids coming up with 3 goalline stands in the same game. Shows you how bad this Chicago team might really be. Coach Hohensee had a terrible game himself, and the team was very fortunate to leave Grand Rapids victorious.

Almost glad to see my totals snap backwards a bit in a week that the sides picked it up in a big way. Back to "respectable" in both categories... lol.

Anyway, I think we've got a massive card getting ready to shape up for tomorrow, as I've got several games I'm already tabbing. Do not expect to see me here before about 1:00 though... CANNOT skip class tomorrow like I do on most Tuesdays to get these lines. Important exam review. Way to come back from Spring Break: here's your midterm.... Thanks. So be ready for all of that tomorrow. I'm sure TommyB's gonna be around. Check his stuff out, as it'll probably be up a solid 15-20 minutes before mine. Guy's been money this year so far.

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[AFLGuru]

And one last thing (because for some reason the edit option isn't showing up)....

Do not... and I repeat: DO NOT jump so quickly at the following games due to injury problems/team inconsistencies...

New York/Austin... I don't care if NY is +2... they probably deserve to be that. This team is going down real hard, real soon... Don't THINK it's gonna be this week, but don't jump this line thinking I'm gonna create a middle for ya.

Las Vegas/Arizona... Don't care if the o/u is 110 or Vegas is +7.... I've rode Vegas this far... the bandwagon likely stops this week for me until and unless Vegas proves themselves extremely healthy. Arizona is getting there. Everything says under and Vegas if the line is anywhere near Vegas -5 and o/u 99... but resist temptation. Arizona looked VERY good against Tampa this week and it might come back to mean victories in division. Gonna have to look at the numbers. MIGHT jump Vegas in this one, but again, don't jump 'em thinking you're getting a middle from me.

I only say this for last week when people hopped San Jose and the over in that game, as well as over in the Dallas/Austin game. I just get the feeling that some folks, whether it be on here or at some other board, are trying to get some middles based off of the posts that I make here by predicting my bet before I make it or post it. Capping the game is one thing. Predicting what I'm gonna bet is another. Not to sound rude or like a pompous ass, but no one out there, not even my roommates, know all of the stats that I track or the thought process going on in my head. So more as a caution to anyone that is trying to do this, don't try it... Just wanted to throw that warning out there.

Best,
--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[olddog]

Recaps

I really appreciate your recaps (from previous week's games) as I only get to see one game and have to reply on newpaper stories and/or team page stories which seldom tell critical facts. I did see Ariz at TB and if Bonner can get his chit together and the team hasn't given up on the year, they will be a good bet down the stretch. I would take LV against any other team but Ariz this coming week-end, as long as Dolezel didn't aggravate his broken finger. AFL injury reports that come out on Wed suck and are never updated.

I had a great week, but I was apparently lucky on GR as Philyaw didn't play and GR had those three goalline stands. But I'll take it, as I've had plenty of tough beats in the past (like everyone else) and the tough beats 'seem' to greatly outnumber the lucky wins.

Keep up the great handicapping.

 

[AFLGuru]

Whoa nelly, this is a card...

Dallas/LA over 104 (4 units -105)
San Jose (-14.5) vs. Grand Rapids (3 units -110)
Austin (+8.5) vs. New York (4 units -105)
Tampa (-7) @ Philly (4 units -105)
Tampa/Philly over 102.5 (3 units -105)
Colorado -9.5 vs. Columbus (5 units -105)
Colorado/Columbus under 106.5 (2 units -105)

 

[scottw]

All I grabbed so far was Colorado-7 -121 2 units and 1 unit on NY-AUS under 108.

 

[Two-Niner]

I'm surprised Pinny hung a 105.5 for Vegas even after what you said earlier.

 

[AFLGuru]

Lines good until....

Dallas/LA over 104 (4 units -105)
Good til 109-110... game pegged at 112

San Jose (-14.5) vs. Grand Rapids (3 units -110)
Good til about 20... I had SJ -18.5, but think they'll cover with ease

Austin (+8.5) vs. New York (4 units -105)
NY WAAAAAAY overrated... good til 3.5... had tabbed at 3.5-4

Tampa (-7) @ Philly (4 units -105)
Good til 10-11... had at 9-9.5

Tampa/Philly over 102.5 (3 units -105)
Good til 107-108... had at 107.5, probably over that

Colorado -9.5 vs. Columbus (5 units -105)
Had at -14.5... Colorado should roll

Colorado/Columbus under 106.5 (2 units -105)
Good til about 102... had at 99-100, but that was probably a bit low

 

[scottw]

I did just grab that at under 106 -111.

 

[AFLGuru]

I'm surprised Pinny hung a 105.5 for Vegas even after what you said earlier.

Offense playing shoot it out to Nash with Dolezel at the helm... Bonner looks healthier. Too many variables... Can see anything happening

 

[scottw]

I just like that LV defense. AZ wasn't scoring at all until last week. Hoping they revert to form and that last week at TB was an aberration. Maybe same for LV, but with Dolezel it's true they should score more. Still, LV never plays well down there.

 

[AFLGuru]

LV D is nasty... very nasty... but Arizona thinks run is a four letter word.... Bonner took a TON of shots deep against Tampa... He's getting back to bread and butter with Burley again. Scary team, especially in the Pit.

 

[Two-Niner]

Yeah, I was staying away for the reasons you said but I figured they would post a lower number just off past scores.

 

[scottw]

AZ ran ONE TIME last week. Yikes. That's fine if you're tossing TD passes, but if you're in the red zone and can't run it in, well, we saw what AZ did (or didn't do) against LA, didn't we? Just hoping Bonner and Co. return to playing like crap on offense. And they did lose last week. Maybe they are a team to fade at home and play on away from home, as on the road they get away from the negativity about the team in Phoenix.

 

[AFLGuru]

Day by day here...

Friday night previews...

Dallas/LA over 104 (4 units -105)
Good til 109-110... game pegged at 112

Dallas comes into the game having torn apart Austin in that stupid shortened arena on Sunday. LA comes off of a bye week. LA's offense should lick it's wounds after getting owned by Arizona. At home this year, LA has been worth a TON of points, including a very impressive SEVENTY ONE against San Jose. Dallas, meanwhile, continues to take a ton of deep shots with Stoerner's cannon of an arm. LA has been VERY prone to the deep ball this year, and this one should be no exception. LA's defensive line play has backed off a lot, and though Dallas still has a ferocious front line, the LA offensive line has done wonders keeping John Kaleo standing this year. I think Dallas is going to continue the tear this week in a game that could feature a lot of points a la Orlando/New Orleans from Sunday. If LA finds a way to get to 55, this is gonna be well over from here. Dallas drops 60 on Friday night!

San Jose (-14.5) vs. Grand Rapids (3 units -110)
Good til about 20... I had SJ -18.5, but think they'll cover with ease

This one can get REALLY ugly, REALLY fast. San Jose on a tear... Grand Rapids off of a tough loss that might prove demoralizing. They really had Chicago beat. But the goalline stands ain't happenin' this week boys and girls. San Jose won't get stopped. Grand Rapids will be lucky to get to 45. This one has the good ol' fashioned a$$ kicking written on it. San Jose will show no mercy with the division lead now in sight.

 

[scottw]

That shortened field in AUS is one reason I grabbed the under. Here's why. I watched the DAL-AUS game. I lost count of how many kickoffs went over the screen for touchbacks, due to the shorter field. How is NY scoring points? KICK RETURNS. They have 6 kickoff returns for TDs. CMB has 5, and no one else has more than 2. But if the ball keeps sailing over the net for a touchback, you can't run it back. KO returns are under killers, and NY has been returning one every game. It will be hard here. And AUS leads the league in kickoff coverage, giving up only 12.4 yards a return, and are 1 of only 4 teams that have not allowed a kickoff return for TD all year.

 

[AFLGuru]

Saturday card.... should be easy enough to describe...

Austin (+8.5) vs. New York (4 units -105)
NY WAAAAAAY overrated... good til 3.5... had tabbed at 3.5-4

SNEAKIEST game of the week by far. New York comes into this game having played a ton at home. Only two road tests so far, one the loss at Vegas, the other at Philly. We've already seen what happens when New York has an excuse to have a brain fart once this year when they crapped the bed against Vegas. Philly played 'em tough on the road. And now this. Skip Foster was livid at his team's performance offensively against Dallas. Promises wholesale changes. This Austin team has already snuck up on some teams this season and is really a few bad breaks from being a plus .500 team. This tiny field isn't good for Garcia, who throws the deep ball a ton. That alone will take at least a quarter to figure out, as I believe it is his first trip to Austin in such a small place. Austin's yet to win a home game this year... but look out.... This one is lurking really dangerous for the Dragons to fall flat. Take your TD head start and run with it... hopefully to the bank...

 

[AFLGuru]

That shortened field in AUS is one reason I grabbed the under. Here's why. I watched the DAL-AUS game. I lost count of how many kickoffs went over the screen for touchbacks, due to the shorter field. How is NY scoring points? KICK RETURNS. They have 6 kickoff returns for TDs. CMB has 5, and no one else has more than 2. But if the ball keeps sailing over the net for a touchback, you can't run it back. KO returns are under killers, and NY has been returning one every game. It will be hard here. And AUS leads the league in kickoff coverage, giving up only 12.4 yards a return, and are 1 of only 4 teams that have not allowed a kickoff return for TD all year.

Wowsers.... EXCELLENT JOB Scott. Great point I didn't even consider in this game that only strengthens my argument for taking the Wranglers. Nicely done sir.

 

[scottw]

No problem. I just got so irritated at all the touchbacks last week in AUS while watching the game that it was the one thing I remembered most about the game. It just stuck in my head. And you KNOW that AUS is well aware of what NY is doing returning kicks. They will tell Dodson to boom it over the net every time. Not only does that eliminate the return TD, but it forces NY to go 45 (ok, a little less) yards on each possession. They won't even get a runback to the 25 or 20. There's a reason AUS leads the league in KO coverage: all they do is stand around and wait for the ref to put the ball down at the 5 yard line.

Just checked, and in the last 2 home games 8 of Dodson's 13 kickoffs have gone for touchbacks, including all 3 last week (onside kicks excluded).

 

[AFLGuru]

Sunday card...

Tampa (-7) @ Philly (4 units -105)
Good til 10-11... had at 9-9.5

Tampa's coming off the scare against Arizona. Don't attribute this to Tampa slacking. Tampa played a GREAT game. Attribute this to Arizona coming out all fired up to get back in the win column with a healthy Bonner at the helm. Philly just sucks. Plain and simple. Sucks. Another game they were blown out in by New York only to claw their way back for squat at the end. Tampa is even in the loss column with all of the other biggies in the South and can't take this one lightly either. Tampa doesn't take these dumps on the road often, and I don't see Philly's "home field advantage" doing much for them... Philly fan will be booing Graziani out of the building by halftime...

Tampa/Philly over 102.5 (3 units -105)
Good til 107-108... had at 107.5, probably over that

This almost has to be at worst a "one or the other" situation, because Philly won't hold ANYONE under 50 the rest of the year. I think this is a pretty lousy line consider Shane Stafford throws the ball a ton and Tampa hardly ever runs. Tampa took a ton of shots against Arizona, and should they do this with Philly, they'll put 60-65 on the board quite easily. Granted, as I said earlier in the year, Graziani is going to win some games for Philly. This very well COULD be one of those games, but the likelihood is doubtful at best. If Philly wins it, or even keeps it close, though... tons of points on the board. Philly's been a massive over team all year, and I don't know why the line is this low in the first place.

Colorado -9.5 vs. Columbus (5 units -105)
Had at -14.5... Colorado should roll

Columbus in disarray. This team is just bad. Lost to Grand Rapids bad. Colorado crushes people at home, no pun intended. Columbus' defense got torched by Vegas last week, and now faces basically the same team in Colorado with a slightly better offense and slightly worse defense.... oh yeah, and it's a 4 hour flight over two time zones and the elevation is a ton higher in Colorado as opposed to Columbus... Game should get off to a real fast start with Colorado running the hurry up to neutralize Columbus' defensive line. Rollin' along with another W to keep the pressure of Chicago. This game's gonna be another romper like San Jose. Can't see a way of Columbus even sticking close with this Colorado team. To see 21-0 after the first quarter wouldn't surprise me in the least. Dutton will kill 'em early and often.

Colorado/Columbus under 106.5 (2 units -105)
Good til about 102... had at 99-100, but that was probably a bit low

Columbus' offense in the reason for this bet. They got to 28 last week.... 28... Look, Matt D'Orazio and gang will crack that this week, but honestly, Mike Dailey knows when to call off the dogs. Colorado will likely get to about 40 in the first half and somewhere right around 60 for the game. That being said, the hurry up offense will have the Columbus defense needing oxygen... which is when Rich Young rolls on them for rushing yards. I think I've got this game really pegged and we've got ourselves a double winner here.