Alright, I need to post my apologies about some stats in the Tampa-Orlando rivalry that I decided to look up today...
Orlando is 9-8 all time at home against Tampa, while Tampa is 10-8 at home against Orlando. This includes the postseason meetings, which Orlando holds a 4-3 edge in, including knocking Tampa out 3 straight years between '98 and '01. The game that Orlando got lucked out of WASN'T last year's home game, it was the '03 playoff game that Kaleo got lucky in... damn refs... They cost us that game. I remember it well. Travis McGriff TD overturned on what I believe was 3rd and long. 9 long point swing, Tampa wins by 10. It was Fran Papasedero's last game before dying about a week later, the day before the Arena Bowl, which Tampa beat Arizona in.
Tampa's won 4 straight regular season games in the series, but 5 overall including the playoffs. However, in '04, Joe Hamilton played his first game at QB in the AFL against Tampa, in a game Orlando had no chance in. The 2nd time around, Orlando came back from down 21 going into the 4th with a shot to win and couldn't pull out a late TD and lost by 5. In one of the '03 games, the Preds had to use backup Connell Maynor due to a Jay Gruden ankle injury that would eventually end his QB career... again.
Listen to some of these finals in the series...
'04: Tampa 63 - Orlando 58
'03: Orlando 34 - Tampa 24
'95: Orlando 40 - Tampa 39
'94: Tampa 40 - Orlando 39
'93: Tampa 55 - Orlando 52
'93: Orlando 46 - Tampa 45
'92: Orlando 24 - Tampa 21 (that's right, 45 points in an AFL game... and it took OT to get that last 3 points)
Tampa has scored 29 more points than Orlando in this series of 35 games, the longest such rivalry in AFL history.
Now, back to the game itself... these are mere trends that ultimately say squat when the game begins. Coach Gruden is out to make this an ugly game. Expect Orlando to run the ball more than usual, especially once they reach about the 5 yard line. Expect more short curls and slants to Fleming, with that occassional deep ball to McGriff or Skaggs. Brian Gowins actually got to kick inside yesterday, and he looks good according to reports. Gruden says the keys to the game are to keep the Tampa offense off the field, get a great pass rush on Stafford, and most importantly, to hang onto the football... I know, pretty obvious... I'm just reading it off of the fan club report. Gruden says he's got some tricks up his sleeve as well, which usually means bad things for Orlando... Trick plays just haven't worked well in Orlando history. Poor Barry Wagner threw 3 passes as an Orlando Predator. 0 for 3, 3 picks. Expect to see EJ Burt or some other linemen on screens to keep the linemen for Tampa honest, and then watch for Hamilton to go off and running on his own. Gruden expects from Tampa a shoot 'em out offense to take advantage of their speed with Freddie Solomon and Clif Dell, while also trying their best to get a consistent pass rush on Hamilton, which will be countered by the running game, the screens, and Hamilton on bootlegs.
As for what I expect? I think Gruden's full of crap when he says he's gonna slow the game down. Willing to say that the first half of this game will get to at least 50. Hamilton's gonna take a few deep shots down the field early in the game to keep Tampa from jumping the slants and curls, and maybe THEN, go back to it in the 2nd half. I do believe we'll see more of the running attack from the Preds, and I think you're also going to see Tampa make the effort at running the ball. The problem they run into though, is that no one successfully runs on Orlando. Cory Fleming crushes the run with his speed to the outside. He's a hard guy to block at 6'3" not a shade under 230 (I don't care what he's listed at, I've met the guy... he's huge). The mack linebacker for the Preds is usually Moyer-Moore or "Doghead" Grant. The great thing about Doghead is that he was an actual linebacker in high school. He knows how to the play the position probably better than anyone in the league. He's quick and agile, and will cause a lot of problems if Tampa tries blocking him with a lineman. The matchup to watch on the line is #1 for Tampa (Kinney) vs. #93 for Orlando (Burt... don't hold me to that number... I think it's right though). If Burt wins that battle, Orlando is going to win this game.
As for Joe Hamilton, he's just got to learn to not leave the ball on the ground before taking his 5 step drop (happened twice against Arizona and once against Colorado), and reading the jack linebacker. Gruden says that he's personally worked with Hamilton on it all week and we shouldn't see this problem prop up very often.
Alright boys and girls, there's the news of the day on the big game. Gameday report tomorrow.
--AFLGuru:toast:
