Options at beating line movement
My roommate has been bothering me about this concept of "the middle" in betting in general (Budworth22). I hate doing it. I just can't stand taking a winning wager and putting it in jeopardy, or searching for this "perfect" number, even if the spread is a full 7 points. So as a general warning, I don't suggest hedging or middling any of the numbers on the board, UNLESS you bet Orlando and took the 4 or 4.5 points... just because I think this game just screams trap now for Orlando.
However, there are other options! I've spent the day trying to devise a way to get some of you some great lines to tease the 3 big plays I have this weekend back down to size. I don't suggest teasing Chicago at all. Just let it go. Teasing New York to a pick is just fine... And though I still don't feel that teasing the over is necessary, over 101 looks real nice as well. Things that you may consider putting these games with???
***Note: None of these are official picks... just suggestions if you didn't get the greatest line in the world***
Georgia (+10)- I just don't think John Kaleo can lead a team with so few offensive weapons to enough points to cover this number. The more this line moves in favor of the Avengers, the more I consider making it a play. However, I can't bring myself to do it... at least not yet. We'll see as the week progresses. However, I think there's GREAT value in teasing this Georgia team all season, as I believe that Georgia's defense will hold up against some of the bigger guns. And typically, the bigger gunned offenses will put up somewhere in the 50s, meaning Georgia will just need to get to about 45 to stay within all the numbers.
Colorado (-6.5) OR Grand Rapids (+21.5) - I know... advising a middle after all of this about not middling. Colorado's offense is much better than Orlando's defense made them look. Grand Rapids isn't going to be able to stick with them all game. That being said, I believe that 6.5 is a very reasonable number for the Crush to cover against a simply put, miserable team. HOWEVER... Grand Rapids is going to cover people this year. I've said it all week and will continue to say it. I don't know if Colorado's defense is really good enough, especially with the health of Hughley in question, to hold Grand Rapids under 40. If Grand Rapids gets to 40, that means Colorado's gotta score 62 to cover the number... I see it as the books have this one right within a few points either direction. Either side is a nice tease.
Tampa Bay (-6)- I don't want to call this an absolute slam dunk, but Tampa SHOULD easily dispose of a pitiful Austin team, that out-turnovered Philly and still got slammed. Their offense is right up there with Columbus' and Grand Rapids'. However, Tampa has this history... Coming off the big win against San Jose... Big game in the Jungle next week... Could Marcum's boys be looking ahead??? Honestly, I think Tampa's gonna win this game and win it going away, but the first half might be a bit interesting. Shane Stafford doesn't have to play lights out to beat this team like he did last week. He's just gotta be average. Problem for Shane Stafford: Massive hit or miss. Too many 4 turnover games for Stafford. Though I don't anticipate this to happen, you never know. Tampa's going to win this game, the question being by how much. Two TDs is a lot to cover for a team who's still got a lousy kicker in Matt George. But 6? Easy enough. Not in Tampa.
This should get some great numbers for you all. The options are there. I'm not a massive fan of these teasers, but for the value considering the lines, they're not bad alternatives.
--AFLGuru:toast:
My roommate has been bothering me about this concept of "the middle" in betting in general (Budworth22). I hate doing it. I just can't stand taking a winning wager and putting it in jeopardy, or searching for this "perfect" number, even if the spread is a full 7 points. So as a general warning, I don't suggest hedging or middling any of the numbers on the board, UNLESS you bet Orlando and took the 4 or 4.5 points... just because I think this game just screams trap now for Orlando.
However, there are other options! I've spent the day trying to devise a way to get some of you some great lines to tease the 3 big plays I have this weekend back down to size. I don't suggest teasing Chicago at all. Just let it go. Teasing New York to a pick is just fine... And though I still don't feel that teasing the over is necessary, over 101 looks real nice as well. Things that you may consider putting these games with???
***Note: None of these are official picks... just suggestions if you didn't get the greatest line in the world***
Georgia (+10)- I just don't think John Kaleo can lead a team with so few offensive weapons to enough points to cover this number. The more this line moves in favor of the Avengers, the more I consider making it a play. However, I can't bring myself to do it... at least not yet. We'll see as the week progresses. However, I think there's GREAT value in teasing this Georgia team all season, as I believe that Georgia's defense will hold up against some of the bigger guns. And typically, the bigger gunned offenses will put up somewhere in the 50s, meaning Georgia will just need to get to about 45 to stay within all the numbers.
Colorado (-6.5) OR Grand Rapids (+21.5) - I know... advising a middle after all of this about not middling. Colorado's offense is much better than Orlando's defense made them look. Grand Rapids isn't going to be able to stick with them all game. That being said, I believe that 6.5 is a very reasonable number for the Crush to cover against a simply put, miserable team. HOWEVER... Grand Rapids is going to cover people this year. I've said it all week and will continue to say it. I don't know if Colorado's defense is really good enough, especially with the health of Hughley in question, to hold Grand Rapids under 40. If Grand Rapids gets to 40, that means Colorado's gotta score 62 to cover the number... I see it as the books have this one right within a few points either direction. Either side is a nice tease.
Tampa Bay (-6)- I don't want to call this an absolute slam dunk, but Tampa SHOULD easily dispose of a pitiful Austin team, that out-turnovered Philly and still got slammed. Their offense is right up there with Columbus' and Grand Rapids'. However, Tampa has this history... Coming off the big win against San Jose... Big game in the Jungle next week... Could Marcum's boys be looking ahead??? Honestly, I think Tampa's gonna win this game and win it going away, but the first half might be a bit interesting. Shane Stafford doesn't have to play lights out to beat this team like he did last week. He's just gotta be average. Problem for Shane Stafford: Massive hit or miss. Too many 4 turnover games for Stafford. Though I don't anticipate this to happen, you never know. Tampa's going to win this game, the question being by how much. Two TDs is a lot to cover for a team who's still got a lousy kicker in Matt George. But 6? Easy enough. Not in Tampa.
This should get some great numbers for you all. The options are there. I'm not a massive fan of these teasers, but for the value considering the lines, they're not bad alternatives.
--AFLGuru:toast:
