Guru's Golden Picks: Arena Week 2: 5*!

[AFLGuru]

Browns Fan--

Please leave the posting board. Anyone that supports Sports Interaction is not welcome here.

No really dude, if all you've used is SIA, switch, or at least consider switching to Pinnacle. All of the odds are better. There are fewer gimmicks. Yeah, it's a free deposit and pull out and all of that, but the lines are terrible... the AFL lines typically come out hours, not days before game time. Not all games have moneylines. You can't tease AFL. If you pay the 5% to get into Pinnacle, you'll save that much more down the line in other stuff. Just trust me on this one... As a former SIA user, trust me. Get off the SIA bandwagon before they shut down. They're rated one of the worst sportsbooks on the web.

It's alright Browns Fan... Not faulting you for all of this. But PLEASE don't advocate SIA. It's really a terrible sportsbook. Bet365, Olympic, Pinnacle, anything... anything but SIA. That possibly is the worst book on the net.

--AFLGuru

 

[HinesWard86]

Honestly dude, no offense but I don't see a problem with Sports Interaction, their tech support is great, they credit my money quickly, and they seem to be top notch all around. And they have great props on their website that are easy to call.

 

[Roxygurl]

i find this fascinating because vegas hasnt posted anything yet nor the book i bet at across the border. im wondering if the offshore numbers will influence what eventually happens in vegas and other places. remember the good old days when everyone thought arena football was a joke and the lines were always off. damn i miss them.:sad3: ~RG

 

[Avalanche88]

AFLGuru---NO/NAS

What are your thoughts on the Nashville/New Orleans game Saturday? Thanks!!

 

[AFLGuru]

Avalanche--

To be honest with you, I think the 3 plays I have right now might be it this week. I've leaned Nashville most of the week, but I still believe that New Orleans is one of these teams that is much better than they are. Nashville made a lot of young mistakes in the game against Columbus, and despite the fact that they are playing against a New Orleans team that looked lost offensively against Georgia, I don't know if they're gonna cover this spread. The fact that the line has dropped to 2 makes me think people agree. In terms of o/u in that game, it seems painfully obvious to take under. But upon further inspection, the fact of the matter says that Nashville, despite running the ball 22 times against Columbus, STILL scored 47 points. New Orleans, despite playing a 19-18 first half, still played a game that got into the mid-90s. Is the proper play is this game under? You bet. But will I be partaking in it? Not unless something comes out of the woodwork the next few days that really makes me believe that something might happen.

Only other lean I have I'm very cautious to make, and I'll keep my mouth shut right now because the line has been going the direction I want it to. For all of our sake's, it's better that I wait until game day to make the call to play or not to play the game... and no, it's not under in the Orlando game. The Preds and Rattlers ALWAYS seem to play high scoring games.

Oh, and the New York over is now only 3 units of a play. They've reached the magical number that I think is about the breaking point finally... 112. Can't believe I got this thing in at 104.5... Again, still think there's value in it up to 115. If it somehow hits that number, that's when it's time to drop to just one unit. Anything above 117 is off all together. Use your best judgement and grab your best line as best you can. One more pick is possible, coming later in the week.

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[AFLGuru]

Oh and one more tidbit... Cheer up Roxygurl... Open up a Pinny account and jump on the opening lines like I did! Those 3 were all WAY off, and they're back to where they belong now. 112 is right around the 112.5 I thought the game would open at. -5 for New York is about a point to point and a half higher than I thought it would open at. And +2 for Chicago is a lot closer to the pick 'em I had this game toted at. So they're still not the brightest with opening lines... The problem is that a book like Pinnacle opens the lines days before anyone else does... And the other books do it right. Though Pinnacle will clearly get more business, and admittingly, might clean house on one of these bets this weekend, the other books wait for the line movement on Pinnacle so THEY don't get burned. They know they don't do the individual research on this league to care enough... So if their action decreases on the AFL, it's not a big deal to them. At least they're not losing.

And Browns Fan... Last tidbit about SIA. The quantity of times that they've had screw ups in lines was outrageous. They had a line set last year in a college game at something like 10.5. The game closed at 3.5 and I wondered why. Well they had the wrong home team listed and then refused to void my bet. Honestly, I thought there was value in the game at 10.5, and when it lost, wasn't happy to see that they wouldn't void my bet. In some of their wordings, they're set up to be automatic winners. For example, during Euro2004 last year, they had a lot of games for team to score first, taking their 20 cent line, instead of the normal 10 for most of the games. Any other book, team to score first either has an option to bet a 0-0 draw, or lists that 0-0 is a push. Not SIA. SIA says if no one scores first, then so be it. Also, during live betting of a soccer match in that same tournament, they had a listing for who scored the 5th goal. The 5th goal had already been scored. They should have stated 6th goal. I did an experiment with this one... I bet on the team that scored the 5th goal, and wondered why I was credited with a loss after the game. They said that the bet explicitly said "next goal" along with "5th goal." Well, someone else I knew bet on the team that DID score the "next goal." Guess what? He was credited with a loss too. Just crap like that that Sports Interaction gets itself into, especially where the maximum bet for the most part is $550. That's chump change for, not necessarily me, but a lot of other people on here. I still highly recommend another book. Any time I see -120 on each side, I want to get sick. But it's your choice, and I'm not going to try reasoning with you anymore. Anyone who's used SIA on here will probably agree with me.

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[Avalanche88]

AFLGuru

Thanks AFLGuru for the response. Will be in that area Friday and going to the game. Just thought I could spice the experience up with a little action. I'll check in with you on Friday for any possible updates! Thanks again!!!

 

[jwblue]

AFLGuru,

I hate not getting the best line. How about a teaser: New York over 104.5, Chicago +9.5?

Just did 4 units....thinking about another 4.


IS

 

[AFLGuru]

In Spades--

The fact of the matter says that you're essentially relying on two things to happen for not the greatest of odds offered by Pinny. However, I think the two combined is a great play as a teaser as well. I'd say stick with the four. I'll never advocate people betting such a mass percentage of their account, particularly on a two team teaser.

--AFLGuru

 

[AFLGuru]

To difuse the common knowledge now that Shredrick Bonner is likely out for the season, yes, it's all true. Bonner's probably done. Certainly out this week. The injury still hasn't been disclosed. My guess says it's a knee or something... maybe a shoulder. Possibly if someone had the game locally could tell what the injury might have been that he sustained against Grand Rapids.

However... DO NOT bet on Orlando in this game. I'm warning everyone. DO NOT fall into this trap. This is absolutely a trap now for Orlando. Don't bet the game for action on Thursday night. There still might be a play on the game, but it won't be on the side, at least not from me. Arizona is still one of the most dangerous teams in the AFL, as Joe Germaine has at least played in a legitiment system at some point, and he does play a lot of crap time with the Rattlers. Been with the team for years. Yes, this line did the appropriate thing... Orlando at -2.5. It's appropriate. But don't bet it.

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[AFLGuru]

Good morning to anyone else crazy enough to be awake and looking at these boards at 9:00 AM. Hopefully if you're not at work or school, you're asleep like I wish I was... but whatever.

This serves as more of a precursor to a pick that may or may not be coming at around 1:00 or 1:30. I'm about to leave for class once again, but I've got a massive 4 hour break starting at about 12:30. I've done some research on one particular line that I want to make sure of, and if all of my number crunching works out alright, we'll have a 4th play.

I'll be watching the Thursday game and the Sunday games awfully close, but the AFLGuru Chick is coming into town on Friday (okay, she's really coming in on Thursday afternoon... but I've already told her that I WILL be watching my Predators), so there won't be any analysis of those games. She's just looking to get out of Jacksonville for the weekend. Can't say I blame her. If anyone has a direct feed or a television pickup of either of the Friday or Saturday games, any info would be appreciated. I'm gonna try watching some of those games, but I made the mistake of promising the AFLGuru Chick a real date. We've been dating 4 years now and she's used to my promises being superceded by sports, particularly football, but since I'm already forcing her to watch the Thursday game, the Sunday early game, and the Super Bowl... probably should keep my promise.

Note that I'll effort to get scores text messaged into me while at dinner and a movie with my girlfriend... Lol... Can't wait for Bud to get on my case for this one! Be back in a few hours.

--AFLGuru

 

[Roxygurl]

being here at 9am out east is ok its lost causes like me on this site at 6am thats crazy guru.lol. be very attentive to guruchick my friend shes coming to be with you not text messages or the predaters.lol. youll get thru the weekend fine but before making your love connection date leave us with a updated recap of who your best bets are on as most afl lines come out today. have fun with guruchick and dont forget the roses ok?:anichamp4 :manwh: ~RG

 

[AFLGuru]

Good advice Roxy... The text messages were a joke... The Predators game isn't. I guess I've treated her okay since she's been with me for 4 years... and considering that we're both college students and different colleges who have been dating since high school, I think I'm doing alright. AFLGuruChick wears enough jewelry to make me cringe... all from me... including the diamond encrested earrings for Christmas. Don't worry, I'll find some place slightly classier than McDonalds to take her on our date. The GuruChick doesn't mind as long as she gets pampered. And she always does...

No roses though... I'm allergic. Carnations are the best she's getting. And she gets them any time we see each other.

No worries though! Still have plenty of time until she arrives in town to deliver picks. I'm off to class... I hope you're off to bed Roxy. Goodness, 6 AM in San Diego. That hour only exists to college kids on Friday and Saturday nights. That hour shouldn't even be referred to as "morning."

--AFLGuru

 

[Roxygurl]

your a rare gem of a man aflguru. aflguruchick is a lucky girl. im looking forward to your update on the weekend action and your best bets. be well guru.

 

[RightSide]

Hey Guru...when do AFL lines come out for the week? It's Wednesday already and see no lines for any games yet. Thanks.

 

[HinesWard86]

Wow.....

When did this thread become a romance thread, lol, less romance more gambling needed. Well, unless humping is involved.....or Angelina Jolie

 

[RightSide]

:hump:

 

[AFLGuru]

Okay, enough about the AFLGuruChick... I can tell I opened up some stuff I probably shouldn't have... Oh well, if the Sports Guy can have the Sports Gal, I can have the AFLGuruChick. Anyway, more importantly... Back to work!

First off, Right Side--

Lines typically open up on Thursday on all books not named Pinnacle. Pinny opens them up Monday around 11:00 EST. Again, I highly suggest everyone open up a Pinny account for the AFL, as they have the best lines, the quickest spreads, and you will be assured my quoted line... that is until it changes.

That brings me to the other subject of this rant.

For some reason in the last couple hours, lines have been pounded and/or changed for some unknown reason...

Recap...

Orlando went from -3.5 to +1 and now back to a pick 'em. Honestly, what I believe this is due to are people betting on Arizona as a dog blindly, without knowing that Bonner is out. Some smarter people are getting back on the other side now that the injury is rather commonplace. Lay off either way. Orlando will probably end up somewhere between -1 and -2.5

Over/Under in the Orlando/Arizona game went from 94.5 before Bonner to 88.5 yesterday, to 91 now. This number is going to keep fluctuating, as no one really has a clue which trend(s) to follow. Again, lay off.

Georgia went from a 3 point favorite to a 1 point dog. This is strictly due to the fact that Los Angeles played Las Vegas tougher than the experts thought they would, as they honestly should have at least covered, if not won outright, that game. My stats showed that LA played a better all-around game than LV, but that onside kick was the difference. I'm not saying this line is wrong one way or the other. I just don't get a great feeling on the game. Georgia beat a very sound New Orleans team in week one, but again, in a rather sloppy game.

Colorado is up to -14 against the lowly Rampage. This number is beginning to intrigue me a bit. Grand Rapids is going to cover some games this year, even if it's just on accident. However, the number is still a few points off from what I would like it at. Colorado isn't going to blow people out of the water too often this year. But the line movement is very expected.

The over/under in the San Jose/Las Vegas game is up to 100.5 from the open of 95.5. This is probably a great bet. Vegas' offense is still great. Mark Grieb isn't going to only complete 50% of his passes again, even without Hundon... hell, 3 shaved apes could catch over half his passes in this league. Probably a sound investment, even at this number, but not a game I believe I am going to touch unless something else strikes. This line movement was predictable.

Now... the game that makes ABSOLUTELY ZERO sense to me. New York/Dallas' over/under is now a soft 107.... 107!!! This can be attributed to one of a few things... first off, people could see 112 and think what a ridiculously high number that is, even for an AFL game. And honestly, it is. The other possibility is that someone knows some insider information that I don't know yet... But according to all reports, both QBs are fine and there doesn't appear to be any key injury listed. I expect this line to head back up very quickly and close right around where it was yesterday... 112. I'll still contend this game should be set at 112.5 and should get to 120+.

New York is now -6.5 against Dallas, and Chicago is now +1 against Philadelphia. Both of these were predictable after my posts. Pinny knows it got burned on those two lines, especially with Chicago GETTING EIGHT POINTS!!! The Rush are gonna close as favorites. I would've thought the Dragons' line would stabalize by now, but I guess now.

So, ways around all of this movement??? Best bet: DON'T bet anything right now. Just chill at least until this evening when maybe I can pinpoint what has happened with these lines. So just stick tight for a few hours, and anyone who's got an information regarding especially this New York game, or the Predators/Rattlers game, it's more than appreciated by myself and everyone else here. I'll get back to the board later tonight.

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[gobucks]

Hi Guru-

Great AFL Threads! Just wanted to let everyone know that Olympic has Dallas/New York total at 105.

 

[AFLGuru]

The Orlando line has absolutely spiked back the other direction in the past 20 minutes or so. They were +1... they're now -2.5. Either people are throwing oodles of money on this, or Pinnacle is going nuts. Like every two seconds my dynamic lines are moving in that game. The o/u is leaning towards going back up, and has risen a point on Olympic. Chicago's down to a pick 'em against Philly and +1 on Olympic. These trends all say that maybe someone else on a site like covers or something posted a large play on under and Arizona or something like that, and now the lines are looking to level back out. If you haven't gotten on that over yet, now's probably the time to do so before it spikes back up again. For those of you that were stuck at 109+... sorry... Guess that's the best I can do. Still researching. More later.


--AFLGuru:toast: